Couche-Tard has lifted its offer to $35.25, less any dividends declared or paid by Caltex Australia. Caltex has also announced a low refining margin of US$5.78/bbl for January.

Morgan Stanley interprets this to mean there will be limited profit coming from the refinery at the start of 2020. The one bright spot could be retail fuel, as lower oil prices are typically a tailwind for this business.

Target is $34. Industry view is In-Line. Equal-weight.

Sector: Energy.

Target price is $34.00.Current Price is $33.73. Difference: $0.27 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If CTX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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