Projected Income Statement: Aramco

Forecast Balance Sheet: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 322,044 184,269 -114,118 -93,169 89,462 133,715 153,063 146,390
Change - -42.78% -161.93% 18.36% 196.02% 49.47% 14.47% -4.36%
Announcement Date 3/22/21 3/21/22 3/13/23 3/10/24 3/4/25 - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 101,030 119,645 141,161 158,308 188,890 200,316 193,541 175,769
Change - 18.43% 17.98% 12.15% 19.32% 6.05% -3.38% -9.18%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 184,267 402,956 556,991 379,506 319,998 281,894 313,034 360,820
Change - 118.68% 38.23% -31.86% -15.68% -11.91% 11.05% 15.27%
Announcement Date 3/22/21 3/21/22 3/13/23 3/10/24 3/4/25 - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 53.31% 57.1% 54.52% 52% 48.72% 53.02% 54.5% 55.32%
EBIT Margin (%) 44.47% 51.4% 50.48% 46.77% 43% 46.6% 47.75% 48.84%
EBT Margin (%) 43.2% 51.24% 50.87% 47.84% 43.4% 47.98% 49.6% 50.42%
Net margin (%) 21.45% 26.32% 26.35% 24.39% 21.86% 23.85% 24.93% 25.29%
FCF margin (%) 21.37% 26.83% 24.58% 20.44% 17.76% 17.91% 19.79% 22.03%
FCF / Net Income (%) 99.64% 101.96% 93.26% 83.82% 81.24% 75.11% 79.41% 87.1%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.85% 19.39% 25.66% 18.22% 16.07% 16.6% 16.02% 16.16%
ROE 18.26% 37.56% 46.62% 30.35% 26.32% 24.03% 23.98% 24.67%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 0.7x 0.21x - - 0.1x 0.16x 0.18x 0.16x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.75x 0.46x - - 0.28x 0.47x 0.49x 0.41x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 11.72% 7.97% 6.23% 8.53% 10.48% 12.73% 12.24% 10.73%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 21.98% 13.95% 11.42% 16.4% 21.52% 24.01% 22.45% 19.4%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 54.83% 29.69% 25.34% 41.71% 59.03% 71.06% 61.83% 48.71%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.18 2.16 2.886 2.223 2.104 1.93 2.006 2.112
Change - 83.16% 33.58% -22.98% -5.36% -8.27% 3.95% 5.31%
Dividend per Share 1 0.9256 1.157 - 1.695 1.776 1.32 1.357 1.416
Change - 25% - - 4.78% -25.66% 2.84% 4.32%
Book Value Per Share 1 15.36 4.602 5.99 6.343 6.028 6.205 6.393 6.627
Change - -70.05% 30.15% 5.9% -4.96% 2.92% 3.04% 3.65%
EPS 1 0.7686 1.636 2.473 1.87 1.63 1.532 1.603 1.681
Change - 112.9% 51.11% -24.38% -12.83% -6.02% 4.63% 4.86%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 241,858,445 241,858,445 241,893,399 241,907,556 241,948,700 241,854,700 241,854,700 241,854,700
Announcement Date 3/22/21 3/21/22 3/13/23 3/10/24 3/4/25 - - -
1SAR
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 16.1x 15.3x
PBR 3.96x 3.85x
EV / Sales 3.87x 3.86x
Yield 5.37% 5.52%
More valuation ratios * Estimated data

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG MSCI
BB
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts
19
Last Close Price
24.60SAR
Average target price
29.47SAR
Spread / Average Target
+19.81%
Consensus

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise