Projected Income Statement: Aramco

Forecast Balance Sheet: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Net Debt 1 -47,631 322,044 184,269 -114,118 -93,169 -3,415 -15,855 -9,908
Change - 576.12% -42.78% -161.93% -181.64% -103.67% -564.28% -162.49%
Announcement Date 3/16/20 3/22/21 3/21/22 3/13/23 3/10/24 - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
CAPEX 1 122,995 101,030 119,645 141,161 158,308 190,123 200,186 191,256
Change - -17.86% 18.43% 17.98% 12.15% 20.1% 5.29% -4.46%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 293,910 184,267 402,956 556,991 379,506 363,253 373,529 374,538
Change - -37.3% 118.68% 38.23% -31.86% -4.28% 2.83% 0.27%
Announcement Date 3/16/20 3/22/21 3/21/22 3/13/23 3/10/24 - - -
1SAR in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Aramco

Fiscal Period: December 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 58.63% 53.31% 57.1% 54.52% 52% 53.39% 55.05% 56.62%
EBIT Margin (%) 54.57% 44.47% 51.4% 50.48% 46.77% 48.01% 49.46% 50.64%
EBT Margin (%) 53.91% 43.2% 51.24% 50.87% 47.84% 49.26% 50.7% 51.66%
Net margin (%) 26.75% 21.45% 26.32% 26.35% 24.39% 25.04% 25.97% 26.76%
FCF / Net Income (%) 23.76% 21.37% 26.83% 24.58% 20.44% 20.56% 21.46% 22.07%

Profitability

        
ROA 23.29% 10.85% 19.39% 25.66% 18.22% 17.36% 18.17% 18.04%
ROE 32.25% 18.26% 37.56% 46.62% 30.35% 28.08% 27.63% 26.3%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - 0.7x 0.21x - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - 1.75x 0.46x - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 9.94% 11.72% 7.97% 6.23% 8.53% 10.76% 11.5% 11.27%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 16.96% 21.98% 13.95% 11.42% 16.4% 20.16% 20.89% 19.9%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 41.85% 54.83% 29.69% 25.34% 41.71% 52.34% 53.59% 51.06%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 1.717 1.18 2.16 2.886 2.223 2.252 2.265 2.267
Change - -31.3% 83.16% 33.58% -22.98% 1.3% 100.56% 100.1%
Dividend per Share 1 1.281 0.9256 1.157 - 1.695 1.844 1.437 1.517
Change - -27.74% 25% - - 8.83% 77.92% 105.55%
Book Value Per Share 1 4.284 15.36 4.602 5.99 6.343 6.366 6.77 7.188
Change - 258.69% -70.05% 30.15% 5.9% 0.36% 106.34% 106.18%
EPS 1 1.364 0.7686 1.636 2.473 1.87 1.85 1.875 1.886
Change - -43.64% 112.9% 51.11% -24.38% -1.08% 101.35% 100.62%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 242,000,242 241,858,445 241,858,445 241,893,399 241,907,556 241,948,700 241,948,700 241,948,700
Announcement Date 3/16/20 3/22/21 3/21/22 3/13/23 3/10/24 - - -
1SAR
Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trading Rating
Investor Rating
ESG Refinitiv
B
More Ratings
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
HOLD
Number of Analysts
15
Last Close Price
28.00SAR
Average target price
33.35SAR
Spread / Average Target
+19.10%
Consensus