Q23Q 2024and Financial1H 2023Resultsfinancial results
Leadership presentation
November 7, 2024
27th July 2023
Genuino Christino, Chief Financial Officer
Daniel Fairclough, Head of Investor Relations
Disclaimer
Forward-Looking Statements
This document may contain forward-looking information and statements about ArcelorMittal and its subsidiaries. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words "believe", "expect", "anticipate", "target" or similar expressions. Although ArcelorMittal's management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investors and holders of ArcelorMittal's securities are cautioned that forward- looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of ArcelorMittal, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") made or to be made by ArcelorMittal, including ArcelorMittal's latest Annual Report on Form 20-F on file with the SEC. ArcelorMittal undertakes no obligation to publicly update its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Non-GAAP/Alternative Performance Measures
This document includes supplemental financial measures that are or may be non-GAAP financial/alternative performance measures, as defined in the rules of the SEC or the guidelines of the European Securities and Market Authority (ESMA). They may exclude or include amounts that are included or excluded, as applicable, in the calculation of the most directly comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with IFRS. Accordingly, they should be considered in conjunction with ArcelorMittal's consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with IFRS, including in its annual report on Form 20-F, its interim financial reports and earnings releases. Comparable IFRS measures and reconciliations of non-GAAP/alternative performance measures thereto are presented in such documents, in particular the earnings release to which this presentation relates.
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Contents
3Q 2024
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY | page 4 STRATEGIC GROWTH | page 10 CAPITAL ALLOCATION | page 16 APPENDIX | page 20
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Journey to zero fatalities: Company-wide safety audit by dss+ is complete
Health and safety performance
- Protecting employee health and safety remains the overarching priority of the Company. LTIF1 rate of 0.68x in 9M'24
The Company-wide independent safety audit by dss+ is complete
H&S
Strategy
- The audit provided ArcelorMittal with a clear set of six recommendations which the Company is committed to implement
- The audit identified that while there are areas of excellence in the Group, variability in performance exists which must be addressed by initiatives that fast-trackthe strengthening of "one safety culture," underpinned by enhanced governance and assurance across all operations
- The Company is now defining the most effective ways to implement these recommendations in an accelerated manner:
- First phase includes taking these recommendations to build customized, business unit-specific work plans, to be incorporated into their five-year planning cycle
See website for further details: dss+ safety audit recommendations
1 2 3
Recommendations
456
Business unit- specific work plans
Actions
Page 4 | 1. LTIFR = Lost time injury frequency rate defined as Lost Time Injuries (LTI) per 1,000,000 worked hours (own personnel and contractors); A LTI is an incident that causes an |
injury that prevents the person from returning to his/her next scheduled shift or work period | |
Continued strategic progress despite challenging market conditions
Key 9M'24 figures:
- $5.4bn EBITDA1
- EBITDA/t of $133/t
- $1.9bn adjusted net income2
- $6.2bn debt
- $10.6bn liquidity
- $2.42 adjusted EPS2
- 5.7% of shares repurchased
- ArcelorMittal continues to deliver higher margins and resilient operating results despite challenging market conditions → EBITDA/t in 3Q'24 and 9M'24 remains consistently above historical average levels reflecting structural improvements
- Positive FCF outlook in 2024 and beyond → Over the past 12 months, the Company has generated investable cash flow of $2.8bn with a net $0.6bn allocated to M&A, $1.5bn invested on strategic growth capex and $2.0bn returned to shareholders all whilst maintaining net debt to trailing twelve months EBITDA below 1x
- Company remains focussed on delivering its $1.8bn3 strategic EBITDA growth → Recently commissioned projects (Vega, India renewables and Mexico HSM) are performing well
- Capital-efficientdecarbonization strategy → Company continues to optimize its decarbonization pathway to ensure that the Company can remain competitive and achieve an appropriate return on investment
- Ongoing share buybacks capitalizing on valuation disconnect → The Company repurchased 1.5% of its outstanding shares during 3Q'24 (5.7% during the 9M'24); 37% of equity repurchased since September 2020.
For 2024 the all-in cash yield (dividend and share buybacks) is estimated at 7.4%4
1. EBITDA is defined as operating result plus depreciation, impairment items and exceptional items and result from associates, joint ventures and other investments (excluding impairments and exceptional items if any); 2. Adjusted for impairments of $36m related to the closure of the coke oven battery in Krakow (Poland), exceptional items of $74m related to restructuring costs at the same location and MTM loss on purchase of c.28.4% Vallourec shares ($83m); 3. Estimate of additional contribution to EBITDA, based on assumptions once ramped up to full capacity and assuming prices/spreads generally in line with the averages of 2015-2020. Following the completion of detailed engineering, the Monlevade
Page 5 | expansion project in Brazil has been put "on hold" (seeking lower capex intensive options). The Company anticipates approving projects of a similar scale (capex and EBITDA |
impact) during its forthcoming strategic planning cycle, hence no change to the expected $1.8bn impact on EBITDA from strategic growth investments. 4. 2024 figure is calculated as | |
share buyback data for 9M'24 plus dividends paid in June 2024 and includes dividend payment due in Dec'24. |
Resilient operating results highlighting benefits of diversification
EBITDA split by segment (9M'24)1 | Structurally higher margins and greater resilience to | ||
challenging market environments…EBITDA/t (US$) | |||
+49% | |||
133 | |||
89 |
Majority of Mining
EBITDA is generated inAverage 2012-20199M'24
North America (Canada)
Page 6 | 1. Note: Other corporate costs, former ACIS segment (which is now part of Others) and eliminations are excluded from the pie chart. |
We are at a cyclical low - current market conditions are unsustainable
- Overall demand remains subdued, with no signs of restocking activity as customers maintain a "wait and see" approach
- Nevertheless, apparent demand in our aggregate markets is expected to be higher in 2H'24 vs. 2H'23 (reflecting destocking in Europe in 2H'23 and YoY demand growth in India and Brazil)
- China's excess production relative to demand is resulting in very low domestic steel spreads and leading to a majority of China's steel producers making losses → this impact is then transmitted to other regions via aggressive exports
- Signs of stabilisation/ early recovery:
- US prices have moved up from the recent lows
- EU prices stabilising, but remain well below marginal cost
- Raw materials prices providing cost support
- Absolute inventory levels remain low, particularly in Europe → Company remains optimistic that restocking activity will occur once real demand begins to recover
ArcelorMittal weighted PMI1 chart
58 | (latest data point: Oct-2024, 49.0) |
54 | |
50 | |
46 | |
42 | 49.0 |
38 | |
34 |
US, Euro and Chinese HRC prices and the RM basket $/t
(latest data point: Spot Oct 28, 2024)
2050
1850 | US domestic EXW Indiana $/t |
N.Europe domestic EXW Ruhr $/t | |
1650 | |
Raw material basket $/t | |
1450 | |
China domestic (incl. 13% vat) $/t | |
1250 | |
1050 | |
850 | |
650 | |
450 | |
250 | |
50 |
Page 7 | 1. ArcelorMittal weighted PMI (purchase managers index) is an aggregation of individual country's PMI, weighted by ArcelorMittal's deliveries of finished steel each year; Note: YoY |
refers to 2024F v 2023 |
3Q'24 EBITDA impacted by seasonally lower steel volumes and lower steel and IO prices
- North America: EBITDA down QoQ → primarily due to a negative price-cost effect (PCE)
- Brazil: EBITDA up QoQ → Higher steel shipments and positive PCE (lower costs more than offsetting lower selling prices)
- Europe: EBITDA down QoQ → Primarily due lower steel shipment volumes (seasonality and maintenance in the long products)
- India and JVs2: Lower contribution largely from AMNS India due to a negative PCE
EBITDA1 bridge 2Q'24 vs. 3Q'24 ($m) | ||||||||
1,862 | ||||||||
(109) | 84 | (59) | (19) | |||||
(40) | ||||||||
(23) | ||||||||
(115) | 1,581 | |||||||
2Q'24 | North | Brazil | Europe | India | Sustainable | Mining | Others and | 3Q'24 |
America | and JVs | Solutions | eliminations |
- Sustainable Solutions: EBITDA down QoQ → mainly in the Projects business, impacted by seasonality
- Mining: EBITDA down QoQ → driven by lower iron ore reference prices offset in part by lower costs as production volumes recovered
Steel shipments 2Q'24 vs. 3Q'24 (Mt)
13.9 | (0.1) | 0.2 | ||
(0.6) | ||||
13.4 | ||||
2Q'24 | North | Brazil | Europe | 3Q'24 |
America |
Page 8 | 1. EBITDA is defined as operating result plus depreciation, impairment items and exceptional items and result from associates, joint ventures and other investments |
(excluding impairments and exceptional items if any); 2. India and JVs includes the income from associates, joint ventures and other investments; Note: QoQ refers to 3Q'24 | |
vs. 2Q'24 |
Balance sheet strength supports consistent investment and returns
▪ | Net debt increased to $6.2bn at the end of the quarter | Net debt movement YoY ($bn) |
following the acquisition of the c.28.4% stake in Vallourec for |
$1.0bn and $0.3bn share buybacks
▪ Due to the seasonality of working capital needs, the |
6.2
$2.8bn investable | 0.3 |
cash flow |
Company believes that a YoY comparison of net debt is |
more useful |
4.3
2.0
▪ During this period, the Company has generated investable | |
cash flow of $2.8bn with: | |
− $1.5bn invested on strategic growth capex projects | |
− | Net $0.6bn allocated to M&A |
− | $2.0bn returns to ArcelorMittal shareholders |
While maintaining a strong balance sheet, with net debt to trailing twelve months EBITDA of 0.9x
- Liquidity at the end of the quarter was $10.6bn
0.6
1.5
(5.7) | 0.3 |
2.9 |
Net debt | CFO1 Maintenance | Decarb. | Strategic | M&A2 Returns to | Forex and | Net debt |
Sept 30, | / normative | capex | growth | shareholders | others | Sept 30, |
2023 | capex | capex | (incl. | 2024 | ||
minority | ||||||
dividend) |
Page 9 | 1. CFO refers to cash flow from operations; 2. Mainly related to sale of Kazakhstan operations (4Q'23) and receipt of the first of four installments related to the Kazakhstan |
sale (2Q'24); sale of remaining stake in Erdemir (1Q'24) and purchase of Italpannelli (2Q'24) and c.28.4% stake in Vallourec (3Q'24). Note: YoY refers to September 30, | |
2023 vs. September 30, 2024 |
Strategic growth
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ArcelorMittal SA published this content on November 07, 2024, and is solely responsible for the information contained herein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on November 07, 2024 at 06:07:33.237.