This is indeed hard to swallow, especially given the very good results of recent years. However, it stems from a structural profitability problem in Europe: ArcelorMittal produces over half of its steel there, but only generates a fifth of its operating profit before investmentsr (EBITDA).

Despite the dire economic climate, the steelmaker is not in a bad position. EBITDA per ton of steel produced was $116 in Q1 2025 and, for the record, $130 in 2024. This performance contrasts with the 2012-2019 cycle, when EBITDA per ton of steel produced hovered around an average of $89.

The breakthrough in the United States has been successful and is proving very lucrative for the time being, while net debt has been reduced by two-thirds over the last ten years. This gives ArcelorMittal unprecedented scope to reward its shareholders.

This is evidenced by the $12bn in capital returned to shareholders between 2021 and 2024, which is well covered by free cash flow, via $10.6bn in share buybacks and $1.3bn in dividends.

The group has thus reduced its number of outstanding shares by 30% in the space of four fiscal years. MarkerScreener notes that these share buybacks were carried out at an average valuation of around half the value of equity. On paper, these transactions therefore make perfect sense.

The year 2025 is starting under the same auspices, with a new share buyback program approved and $0.8 billion already earmarked to delist its own shares, in addition to $0.4bn distributed in dividends. This time, debt is increasing to finance these returns of capital to shareholders. This dynamic will be one to watch over the coming quarters.

The current market capitalization represents just 5x the capital returned to shareholders on an annual basis since 2021, with enterprise value seven times that figure. The paradigm is therefore clear: either the discount remains high, or the market is anticipating a contraction in steel prices and, with it, a return to the bad old days.