Australian Vintage : AVL AGM 2019 Presentation

Australian Vintage Limited

Annual General Meeting

20th November 2019

Australian Vintage Limited

Annual General Meeting

Disclaimer

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

The presentation has been prepared by Australian Vintage Limited (ACN 052 179 932) ("AVG") (including its subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies) and provides general background information about AVG's activities as at the date of this presentation. The information does not purport to be complete, is given in summary and may change without notice.

This presentation is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. These should be considered, with or without professional advice, when deciding if an investment is appropriate. The presentation does not constitute or form part of an offer to buy or sell AVG securities.

This presentation contains forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome in relation to the matters to which the statements relate. These forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results expressed or implied by such statements. Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors are not all within the control of AVG and cannot be predicted by AVG and include changes in circumstances or events that may cause objectives to change as well as risks, circumstances and events specific to

the industry, countries and markets in which AVG operate. They also include general economic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, the regulatory environment, competitive pressures, selling price, market demand and conditions in the financial markets which may cause objectives to change or may cause outcomes not to be realised.

None of AVG (and their respective officers, employees or agents) (the Relevant Persons) makes any representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking statement or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward looking statements. The forward looking statements in this presentation reflect views held only at the date of this presentation. Except as required by applicable law or the ASX Listing Rules, the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or undertaking to publicly update any forward looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events. Statements about past performance are not necessarily indicative of future performance.

Certain jurisdictions may restrict the release, publication or distribution of this presentation. Persons in such jurisdictions should observe such restrictions. To the extent permitted by law the Relevant Persons do not accept liability for any use of this presentation, its contents or anything arising in connection thereto including any liability arising from the fault or negligence none of the Relevant Persons.

2

Australian Vintage Limited

Annual General Meeting

20th November 2019

Agenda

Performance Summary	Richard Davis
Business Review	Neil McGuigan
Formal Proceedings	Richard Davis

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

4

Annual General Meeting

Performance Summary

Richard Davis

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

5

Your company

One of Australia's largest wine producers

• Crushes up to 120,000 tonnes a year.
• Sells 80 million litres of wine.
• 2,400 planted hectares in 11 vineyards that we either own or lease.
• Production facilities capable of producing 1.5 million casks and 7 million cases of bottled wine.
• Produces the most popular red wine in Australia.
• McGuigan is the 3rd largest global wine brand in the UK.

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

6

Key Points

• EBITS (Earnings before Interest, Tax and SGARA) up 30% to $21.7 million
• Net Profit after Tax (NPAT) and before SGARA up 48% to $11.9 million
• 2019 vintage conditions impacted result by negative $4.9 million compared to prior period
• NPAT up 6% to $8.1 million
• Cash Flow from Operating Activities positive $23.6 million
• Net Debt of $72.4 million compared to $77.2 million as at 30 June 2018
• Revenue up $19.7 million to $269.2 million
• Sales of McGuigan, Tempus Two and Nepenthe up 10%
• 2.0 cent per share fully franked final dividend paid.

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

7

Key Points (cont.)

• AVL strategies remain unchanged:
• • Grow export business
  • Increase branded sales
  • Focus on cost control

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

8

Business Results & Summary

1. Branded Sales

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

Total sales of our three key brands, McGuigan, Tempus Two and Nepenthe increased by 10%. These three products now represent 60% of all our sales.

In the UK/Europe market McGuigan branded sales have grown by 13% and is the third largest global brand in that market. Within the McGuigan brand, the higher priced Black Label and Reserve range have grown by 31% and now represent 40% of all our sales to UK/Europe.

In Australia, the McGuigan branded sales have grown by 8% and the higher priced Tempus Two and Nepenthe brand sales have grown by 6%. Sales of lower margin products such as Miranda declined 9% during the year.

9

Business Results & Summary (cont.)

2. Australasia / North America Packaged

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

Sales up 8% on last year with most of the increase coming from increased branded sales.

EBIT increased by 7%.

• Australia experienced both an increase in sales and a shift in mix to higher priced premium products. Sales of the McGuigan brand continued its growth with sales up 8% and the higher priced Tempus Two and Nepenthe brand sales improving by 6%.
• Sales to New Zealand improved 42% due mainly to the outstanding performance of the McGuigan Private Bin range which grew 45%.
• Sales to Asia have grown by 24% with McGuigan sales up 23% and Tempus Two sales up 25%. This performance is against a 7% increase for the entire Australian wine industry for sales to Asia.
• North America sales are down 11% on the back of significant growth in prior periods. Over the last 2 years sales to North America have grown by 19%.

	Sales ($000)	EBIT ($000)
	FY19	FY18	FY19	FY18
Australia	78,105	73,906	4,767	4,418
New Zealand	5,623	3,973	889	748
Asia	14,226	11,431	1,684	1,563
North America	7,916	8,856	565	653
	105,870	98,166	7,905	7,382

10

Business Results & Summary (cont.)

3. UK/Europe

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

UK/Europe sales were up 15% on last year with the McGuigan Brand continuing to grow in all parts of the UK market.

EBIT increased by 94% due to the ongoing improved sales mix. When compared to the prior period the favourable GBP added $2.8 million to the contribution of the UK/Europe segment.

• In the UK division, sales increased by 17% to $109.2 million and EBIT grew by 157%.
• In Ireland sales increased by 11% and EBIT by 19%. The McGuigan brand remains the second largest global brand in Ireland.
• In Europe sales declined by 9% and EBIT declined by 10%.

	Sales ($000)	EBIT ($000)
	FY19	FY18	FY19	FY18
UK	109,171	93,710	8,170	3,184
Ireland	9,841	8,880	2,329	1,960
Europe	2,168	2,371	420	469
	121,180	104,961	10,919	5,614

11

Business Results & Summary (cont.)

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

1. Other Segments
2. • Cellar Door reported a 39% EBIT decline to $1.0 million due mainly to decreased visitor numbers in the Hunter Valley where our two key cellar doors are located.
   • Australasia/North America Bulk and Processing EBIT improved by $1.8 million due to the removal of a significant portion of loss-making bulk wine sales.
   • Vineyard Segment (included SGARA) EBIT declined by $6.9 million due mainly to the poor 2019 vintage. The frost and the significant heat contributed to the poor 2019 yield.
3. Interest and Financial Position
4. • Operating cash flow was positive $23.6 million against $26.7 million last year. The slight decline in operating cash flow was due to unplanned bulk wine purchases of $9.4 million to cover the shortfall from this year's vintage.
   • Net debt decreased by $4.8 million to $72.4 million.
   • Gearing (net debt to total equity) is at a comfortable 24%.
   • Bank facility extended to September 2022.

12

Business Results & Summary (cont.)

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

6. Investing to Drive Premiumisation and Operational Efficiency

• Total capital spend for 3 years to June 2020 expected to be $47.6 million with a significant reduction in growth capital expected in FY20.
• Significant investment in growth including new packaging line, premium winery at Buronga and vineyard development.
• Premium winery will be operational during the 2020 vintage and is expected to provide savings in line with forecast.
• Vineyard development is mainly at our Barossa and Grand Junction vineyards.

13

Australian Wine Industry (cont.)

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

In the 12 months to September 2019 the value of Australian wine exports increased by 7% to $2.9 billion and volume decreased by 8% to 774 million litres. The volume decline was driven by a decrease of 52% in shipments below an average value of $2.50 per litre. The average value of exports grew by 16% to $3.74 per litre, the highest since 2008.

The decline in overall exported volume is due to:

• Australia's 2018 and 2019 vintages were smaller than the record breaking 2017 vintage, resulting in less supply for shipping overseas
• International supply pressures have eased with a larger 2018 global vintage, increasing competition in the market
• Premiumisation in established markets is pushing down volume and increasing value

14

Australian Wine Industry (cont.)

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

Wine exports to China continues to lead growth with sales up 19% to $1.1 billion. China remains the largest market for wine sales and third by volume.

Other key export markets:

• UK export sales decreased by 4% to $365 million but remains the largest export market by volume which was down 2% to 233 million litres.
• US export sales increased by 3% to $436 million and volume decreased by 9% to 146 million litres.
• Canada export sales decreased by 6% to $188 million and volume decreased by 15% to 60 million litres.
• NZ export sales increased by 1% to $94 million and volume was down 1% to 32 million litres.

15

Australian Wine Industry (cont.)

• The 2019 Vintage crush has been estimated at 1.73 million tonnes, a decrease of 3% on last year's crush. (Wine Australia - National Vintage Report July 2019).
• The crush in cool temperate regions decreased by 5% and warm regions the crush decreased by 2%.
• Average wine grape purchase prices increased across all regions with the average for all varieties increased by 9% to $664 per tonne - the highest since 2008.
• The largest percentage increase in average grape price was in warm climate reds, which increased by 26% to $592 per tonne.
• Since 2011, the average grape price has increased by a compound average rate of 6%.

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

16

Outlook

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

Our focus on developing a world class branded wine company with a clear objective on wine quality and improving our margin, continues. This focus has delivered a 48% growth in FY19 Net Profit (after tax and before SGARA) and a strong cash flow.

The Company's cash flow for FY20 will remain strong. However, due to planned additional investment in our inventory, operating cash flow will be slightly down on prior year.

The UK has performed exceptionally well in an environment that has seen total volume of Australian wine sales to the UK decline. The Company is investing more on advertising and marketing this year to keep the UK momentum going.

The Company, together with the entire wine industry, will have several challenges in the next 12 months including Brexit, drought and higher costs of grapes and processing.

With regards to Brexit, we have investigated the establishment of a satellite office to service Europe in the event of a hard Brexit and we have sourced all the water requirements for the upcoming vintage.

As foreshadowed in our full year results press release, our higher processing cost due to the poor 2019 vintage, and the increase in grape costs, will mean that our cost of wine will increase and is expected to have a negative margin impact for FY20 of around $3.6 million. However, with improved mix of sales to higher margin products and a normal vintage, we expect to report an improved FY20 Net Profit after tax.

Ignoring the impact of the new accounting standard on leases and based on a normal 2020 vintage and assuming no material change to the current exchange rates, we are expecting our Net Profit after tax to be up on last year by approximately 25%.

17

Annual General Meeting

Business Review

Neil McGuigan

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

18

Overview

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

• FY19 Business Review
• FY19 Wine Show Performance and Achievements so far in FY20
• Capital Expenditure over the last 2 years and why
• Turbo charging our branded Portfolio in FY20
• People and Performance

19

FY19 Business Review …

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

• Profit up from $7.7 million to $8.1 million after a $3.5 million (after tax compared to FY18 actual) SGARA adjustment
• Cashflow from Operating Activities positive $23.6 million
• Revenue up $19.7 million to $269.2 million
• Debt at 30th June 2019 down to $72.4 million
• Branded sales continuing to grow

McGuigan	+ 8%
Tempus Two	+ 5.6%
Nepenthe	+ 6.4%
BVWC	+ 269%

20

Wine Show Performance for FY19 …

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

	McGuigan	Tempus Two	Nepenthe	Barossa Valley
				Wine Company
Trophies	26	4	3	2
Gold	93	44	37	4
Silver	167	74	64	7
Bronze	178	199	139	10
Total Awards	464	321	243	23

21

So far this year …

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

Tempus Two

• International Wine Challenge: Hunter Valley Semillon Trophy - 2014 Tempus Two Pewter Uno Semillon
• Hong Kong International Wine and Spirits Competition: Trophy for the Best White Wine from Australia - 2015 Tempus Two Pewter Semillon

Nepenthe

• Melbourne International Wine Competition: Trophy for the Adelaide Pinot Noir Winery of the Year
• Australian Cool Climate Wine Show: Trophy for the Best Other Dry White - 2017 Nepenthe Winemakers Select Gruner Veltliner

Barossa Valley Wine Company

• New York International Wine Competition: Named Shiraz Wine Company of the Year & Barossa Winery of the Year

McGuigan Wines

• International Wine Challenge London: Named International White Winemaker of the Year
• Decanter World Wine Awards: Trophy for Best in Show - 2007 McGuigan Bin 9000 Semillon
• China Wine and Spirits Awards: Trophy for the Barossa Valley Wine of the Year - 2016 McGuigan Shortlist Shiraz

22

Capex Spend over FY18 / FY19 …

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

1. Good Business Practice

*	Other Capital Purchases	$7.7 m
* Buronga Hill Premium Winery	$4.3 m
*	Oak	$1.7 m
*	IT Spend	$0.7 m

2. Efficiency Gains

* Solar Parks

$ 2.1 m

• Buronga Hill Centrifuges / Wide Bore Crossflows / Cold Stabilisation $ 4.7 m

3. Innovation

• Vineyard Development and Redevelopment (68ha) in the

Barossa Valley / Sunraysia	$	3.6 m
* Merbein Packaging Bottling Line with Sparkling Capacity	$	10.8 m
	$	35.6 m
Capex Spend for FY20	$	12.0 m

23

Turbo charging our branded Portfolio in FY20 …

New Products / Packaging upgrades / ATL

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

McGuigan

Black Label

Single Batch

Founder's Gift

24

McGuigan

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

Continuation of the "Bring a McGuigan"	UK Prime-time Television / Sponsorship
Campaign in Australia

25

Tempus Two

Sparkling Packaging

First advertising campaign

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

Wine On Tap

26

Nepenthe

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

27

People and Performance …

• Support Employee Capability
• Driving Engagement
• Health and Wellbeing

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

28

Thank you …

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

29

Annual General Meeting

Annual General Meeting 20th November 2019

30