AXA : 2022 AXA Foresight Report

Navigating through fields of progress

2 0 2 2 F O R E S I G H T R E P O R T

Progress

/ˈprəʊɡrɛs/ noun

Derived from the Latin word progressus meaning "forward movement, advance (to a better place)".

Progress suggests a collective march towards improvement. Societies are propelled forward by the linear promise of progress. However, the definition of improvement has some degree of subjectivity and can depend on individual evaluation: one vision of progress can be opposed to - or differ widely from - another.

You are now entering Progressland

Foresight. It's a tool that can help us navigate times of crises and uncertainty by going beyond immediate issues. But foresight is also a mindset that invites us to constantly project ourselves into possible futures. Imagining desirable horizons based on divergent ideas of progress is precisely the purpose of this publication.

Over the following pages, you will gain a bird's-eye view of contrasting visions of progress.

There is so much to consider, as you journey through the different regions of Progressland.

Explore how purpose has become ever more essential for future companies in the Corporate

Valley. Imagine what a net-zero routine will mean for your daily life in the Transition

Gardens. Delve into the question of social media and social fragmentation in Hashtag

County. Assess whether the current crisis has brought a silver lining to Mind Health Town.

At AXA, we believe insurance is a force for progress. Our own purpose, Act for human progress by protecting what matters, places this essential force right at its heart.

As a responsible company, we must have a well-established understanding of what progress means to us. Our vision of progress echoes the ideal of social justice and it is embodied

in the concrete commitments we take, such as promoting inclusive insurance for vulnerable populations or achieving carbon neutrality by 2025. Human progress aims to safeguard collective and individual well-being by encompassing a foresight-by-design-approach.

We conceived Progressland to encourage collective thinking around the question of progress and, ultimately, stimulate action to build a sustainable future.

Enjoy the ride!

Ulrike Decoene

AXA Group Chief Communication, Brand and Sustainability Officer

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FORESIGHT REPORT

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P. 3 Foreword

P. 8 Progress, a lens to the future

What will the company of

the future look like?

P. 12 8 areas of conflict P. 14 Corporate fiction:

3 visions of enterprise

P. 19 Meet the expert:

The 10 commandments for tomorrow's business

What will a net-zero

future look like?

P. 22 Scenario 1: Green Growth

P. 24 Scenario 2: Degrowth

P. 26 Debates and controversies

P. 28 Meet the expert: The importance of (science) fiction to turn the page

Parallel trajectories:	Is "mind health"the new
social mediation or	indicator of society's
social fragmentation?	wellbeing?
P. 32	A (very) brief history	P. 42 The COVID crisis:	P. 48	A matrix to navigate
	of social media	A paradigm shift		the future concepts
P. 34	2025 foresight scenarios:	P. 44 Bursting the GDP bubble		of progress
P. 52
	A world adrift vs		Acknowledgments
	a peaceful coexistence
P. 36	Meet the expert:
	Understanding social
	fragmentation
P. 38	Global companies are
	no longer immune
	to social fragmentation

6		FORESIGHT REPORT	PROGRESSLAND		7

Progress,

a lens into the future

The pandemic and the ongoing recovery provide a watershed to consider multiple visions of progress.

Tensions in coping with and recovering from the current COVID-19 crisis have contributed to debates around the "right" path towards a better world. In particular, the role of technology in facing

the health crisis has fuelled discussion on its impact on society. Combined with personal protective equipment, tech-powereddata-gathering and analysis have helped to trace and contain the virus. MRNA vaccines were boosted by new technologies, with positive spill-over effects into other branches of medicine where they were initially scheduled to deliver.

At the same time, the pervasive role of technologies strained the relations between individual, society, and state. With widespread use of health/vaccine passes in many countries, there appeared conflicting reactions to the way personal data was used and shared for the sake of health prevention. Compared with Asia, where state-monitoring is more widely accepted, the Western world is showing a stronger stance on the values of privacy and respect of personal freedoms. When health passports were introduced to authorize access to a wide array of activities, demonstrations broke out in almost every European Member State1. Torn between the need to protect themselves and the community, and fears about the growth in surveillance, health passports triggered a legitimate question about the future role of technology in individuals' lives and the protection of personal data.

MEASURING PROGRESS

Society's response to the pandemic has highlighted the issue of how progress could be better quantified. Many countries that scored highly on traditional indicators, such as GDP, often struggled to deal with the pandemic. They experienced severe public health issues, increased inequalities - especially through the loss of purchasing power of middle classes2- and stark divergence between the interests and opinions of different groups: anti-vaxxers vs pro-vaxxers, the at-risk vs the healthy and even youth vs. senior citizens. The notion that economic performance equals progress, which had already been widely debated, was amplified by the pandemic, while the correlation between corporate profit and social progress was further called into question.

The pandemic also raised the idea of "the world after" - one where the real questions would take center stage in lieu of short-term policymaking, with a focus on the planet and its health, and its relationship with human health. The question of the impact of human activities on the environment and a

8	FORESIGHT REPORT

growing acknowledgment of the challenges of the world's finite resources, have contributed to a new approach where progress is no longer associated with endless economic growth. Properly measuring growth and economic performance require new indicators that better consider environmental footprint, social impact, and individual well-being. The United States, for example, despite being the world's leading economy, was not among the best-performing nations in terms of combating COVID-19. Other features, from access to public health to a strong territorial cohesion, proved more significant in a health and societal crisis. The US is also home to some of the world's highest rates in homelessness, carbon footprint, and income inequality, despite the highest level of GDP. Finland, over forty positions lower in the global GDP rank, has one of the lowest rates of infant mortality, homelessness, and the highest proportions of satisfied workers. Finnish people are also the happiest people in the world for the fourth consecutive year3.

Likewise, the way in which corporate performance is monitored is undergoing scrutiny and has strengthened the drive towards the incorporation of extra-financial dimensions - even from

a regulatory standpoint. In Europe, large companies are required to provide their ESG performance, and this trend is set to continue. Starting with non-binding recommendations, the Taskforce on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure (TCFD) has produced guidelines for more effective climate-related disclosures since 2017. Following the same model, the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosure (TNFD) has started developing advice for biodiversity and natural capital protection. These initiatives are inducing an adaption of companies' strategies with initiatives that seek to improve their environmental and social impact.

THE HEALTH OF SOCIETY

Civic engagement, life satisfaction, and work-life balance were notions once relevant on a personal basis only. Now, they have been considered in pioneering "measurements" and indexes that aim to fully portray a population's wellbeing.

Mind health in particular is at the top of the agenda. It refers to the overall health related to the mind. Disregarding mind health translates into major costs to society with some evaluations of its overall economic impact amounting to 4% of global GDP4. Moreover, when mind health problems are left untreated, they can have long-term impacts. This is particularly true for younger generations, who seem to be the most harshly affected by the

repercussions of the pandemic. Drawing on the 2022 edition of the AXA "Being Mind Healthy"5, young people are now more uncertain (and anxious) about their career prospects, which might influence their job choice criteria. Social restrictions and home lockdowns have exacerbated the challenges of the so-called "digital generation", bringing recurring episodes of burnout and stress online. Finally, "eco-anxiety" could also have severe repercussions on social cohesion and stability, especially among young people. Distress about the consequences of climate change is making young people lose faith in the future. They fear that humanity is doomed and they feel betrayed by governments and previous generations, which they blame for failing to respond adequately6.

The notion of progress is evolving towards a more encompassing evaluation of our society. Global institutions, such as the World Bank and the OECD, are increasingly developing indicators spanning socioeconomics, health, and education. In revisiting their definitions of growth, they are addressing quality of life

in addition to macroeconomic indicators. The OECD's "Better Life Index" evaluates a range of non-financial dimensions, namely education, health status, job quality, and subjective well-being. Novel measurements of progress will determine how we deal with the challenges brought about by "the world after", characterized more than ever by inter-connected, complex, and multidimensional crises with a global impact.

CONFLICTING VISIONS OF PROGRESS

Alongside the need to develop new indicators and methodologies that better capture people's wellbeing, the pandemic and the ongoing recovery provide a watershed moment that points to conflicting visions of progress. While the crisis triggered an acceleration of the discussion around "green growth"7, others argue that degrowth is the only way out of a climate disaster. Implying a drastic reduction in global consumption and production patters, some claim it is the only way to ensure the future for mankind and the planet.

At the moment, there appears to be no one-size-fit-all solution for understanding, defining, and encompassing progress. This matters, because we are at a moment where our ability to evaluate and capture different visions of progress - and the manner in which we decide to do so - will determine the future of our societies.

1. Since October 2021, Italy has authorized the entry to workplaces upon the presentation of the health pass, and the Berlin's region even constrained it to the vaccinated people.
2. Hunkar, D. (2017) "What is the Elephant Chart?"
3. J. F. Helliwell, et al (2021), "World Happiness Report 2021"
4. OECD (2021). A New Benchmark for Mental Health Systems: Tackling the Social and Economic Costs of Mental Ill-Health
5. AXA (2022). "Being Mind Healthy"
6. Marks, E. et al (2021). "Young People's Voices on Climate Anxiety, Government Betrayal and Moral Injury: A Global Phenomenon"
7. Green growth implies "fostering economic growth and development, while ensuring that natural assets continue to provide the resources and environmental services on which our well-being relies" (OECD)

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