Polish retail sales grew 8% y/y in constant prices in December, the growth rate easing from a surprise jump of 12.1% y/y the preceding month, statistics office GUS said on
The December reading landed clearly below market expectations for an expansion of 9.4% y/y. In m/m terms, sales grew an unadjusted 14.9% but declined a seasonally-adjusted 3.4%.
December figures may point to the high inflation beginning to subdue consumption or to households holding back spending after increased spending in November,
Poland’s CPI surged 8.6% y/y in December and is expected to near the 10% mark in January. On the other hand, Polish households’ income situation remains very good, as wages grow amidst labour shortages. The unemployment rate in
Seven out of eight main retail segments posted y/y turnover gains at constant prices in December, GUS showed in the breakdown of the data.
Of major segments, sales of textiles, clothing, and shoes expanded 31.1% y/y in the twelfth month. Food sales grew 0.9% y/y, while turnover in the fuels segment added 3.2% y/y, GUS data also showed.
Sales of pharmaceuticals grew 18.8% on the year. Sales of furniture, audio and video equipment, and domestic appliances grew 1.5% y/y.
The only retail segment to have suffered a turnover decline was cars. Sales in the segment declined 8.5% y/y.
In current prices, retail turnover expanded 16.9% y/y (+21.1% in November) in December, while growing 15.8% in m/m terms (+0.2% in November).
Retail sales and other high-frequency data published for December point to a strong economic growth in the fourth quarter, analysts say.
“We expect GDP to increase 6.2% y/y in the fourth quarter after 5.3% y/y in Q3, and 5.6% in 2021 overall,”
“We think that GDP expanded by around 6.8% y/y in Q4 which would leave
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