Banque nationale de Belgique : Press release - Business confidence indicator (2021-11)PDF

2021-11-24

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General information

Monthly business survey - November 2021

Business confidence remains virtually stable in November

• The indicator has picked up a little in the construction sector and has contracted slightly in business-related services. It remains virtually unchanged in the manufacturing industry and trade.

The building industry is the only sector where business confidence has improved in November. All components making up the indicator have contributed to the rise, with the exception of the one concerning trends in equipment used.

Conversely, confidence has dipped in the business-related services sector. Company bosses are taking a more negative view of their current level of business activity. On the other hand, they appear more optimistic about future prospects for their own activity, while continuing to have reservations about forecasts for general market demand.

In the manufacturing industry, all the indicator's components have remained highly stable.

Lastly, in the trade sector, demand forecasts have contracted sharply, while those for orders placed with suppliers have improved nicely.

The overall smoothed synthetic curve, which reflects the underlying cyclical trend, is continuing the downtrend that began last month.

Business survey indicators

		Gross synthetic curve			Smoothed synthetic
				curve1
	October		November	Variation in		Variation in
	2021	2021		points		Points
Manufacturing industry	2.3	2.5		0.2	0.1
Business-related services	16.4	15.3		-1.1	1.3
Building industry	1.1	2.3		1.2	-0.6
Trade	-2.0	-2.4		-0.4	1.8
Overall synthetic curve	4.0	4.2		0.2	-2.4

1 The smoothed curve has a two-month delay for the overall synthetic curve and a four-month delay for the branches of activity. This implies that the overall smoothed indicator reflects recent developments more closely than the smoothed indicators per branch.

Source: NBB.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

2

NOVEMBER 2021

CHART 1 - SYNTHETIC CURVES

OVERALL SYNTHETIC CURVE

40

30 NCS

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

-50
	2016		2017		2018		2019		2020		2021
	MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY			BUSINESS-RELATED SERVICES
40						40
30						30
20						20
10						10
0						0
-10						-10
-20						-20
-30						-30
-40 NS975						-40	NS296
-50
					-50
2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021

BUILDING INDUSTRY

40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40	NS707
-50
	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021

Seasonally adjusted and smoothed series Source: NBB

TRADE

40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40	NS914
-50
	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021

Seasonally adjusted series

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

3

SYNTHETIC CURVES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

TABLE 1

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or					Adjusted series		Smoothed series
''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or	1980-2021	1		2021			2021
''lower than normal''(-).
Min.	Max.	Avg.	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	June	July	Aug.	Sept.
Overall synthetic curve	- 36.1	+ 10.1	- 7.0	+ 7.6	+ 4.0	+ 4.0	+ 4.2	+ 8.9	+ 9.2	+ 7.3	+ 4.9
Manufacturing industry curve	- 36.0	+ 10.0	- 9.9	+ 7.2	+ 3.0	+ 2.3	+ 2.5	+ 6.3	+ 6.4	.	.
Assessment of total order books	- 57.7	+ 10.0	- 21.1	+ 1.2	- 1.6	- 2.6	- 2.2	- 0.5	+ 0.4	.	.
Assessment of level of stocks ²	- 19.0	+ 25.0	+ 5.5	- 7.7	- 3.9	- 3.2	- 3.3	- 10.6	- 9.3	.	.
Employment expectations	- 41.4	+ 11.5	- 8.3	+ 11.5	+ 4.9	+ 3.9	+ 3.7	+ 7.4	+ 8.3	.	.
Demand expectations	- 37.9	+ 15.0	- 4.7	+ 8.3	+ 4.8	+ 4.8	+ 5.3	+ 9.3	+ 8.8	.	.
Business-related services curve	- 62.1	+ 34.0	+ 9.3	+ 16.4	+ 8.0	+ 16.4	+ 15.3	+ 14.9	+ 16.2	.	.
Assessment of activity	- 71.6	+ 20.0	- 6.1	- 3.7	- 18.5	- 5.6	- 8.6	- 13.3	- 9.9	.	.
Activity expectations	- 70.7	+ 51.7	+ 21.8	+ 26.3	+ 19.3	+ 25.6	+ 29.9	+ 25.0	+ 25.8	.	.
Market demand expectations	- 59.9	+ 45.0	+ 13.4	+ 26.7	+ 23.3	+ 29.2	+ 24.4	+ 29.1	+ 29.9	.	.
Building industry curve	- 39.0	+ 24.3	- 6.7	+ 3.7	+ 4.5	+ 1.1	+ 2.3	+ 6.0	+ 5.4	.	.
Trend in orders	- 52.0	+ 40.0	- 4.0	+ 7.5	+ 10.1	+ 1.2	+ 3.7	+ 11.8	+ 11.3	.	.
Trend in equipment	- 38.4	+ 24.0	+ 1.6	+ 2.4	+ 1.1	+ 0.9	- 0.1	+ 5.7	+ 4.4	.	.
Assessment of order books	- 74.0	+ 30.0	- 21.6	- 0.7	+ 2.0	+ 4.8	+ 5.4	+ 0.7	+ 1.3	.	.
Demand expectations	- 39.0	+ 21.0	- 2.9	+ 5.4	+ 4.9	- 2.4	+ 0.4	+ 7.7	+ 6.6	.	.
Trade curve	- 41.8	+ 16.0	- 2.8	- 1.1	+ 2.2	- 2.0	- 2.4	- 4.2	- 2.4	.	.
Employment expectations	- 33.0	+ 18.0	+ 1.0	+ 4.6	+ 7.0	+ 3.8	+ 5.3	- 1.2	+ 1.4	.	.
Demand expectations	- 56.0	+ 29.0	- 1.0	- 2.6	+ 5.4	+ 5.3	- 3.6	- 0.2	+ 2.4	.	.
Intentions of placing orders	- 40.1	+ 15.0	- 7.7	- 5.2	- 5.8	- 15.2	- 9.0	- 11.1	- 9.9	.	.

1. Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.
2. A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season. When synthetic curves are calculated, the sign of this indicator is therefore reversed.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone [phone]	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

4

OTHER BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATORS

TABLE 2

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers					Adjusted series		Smoothed series
or ''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or	1980-2021	1		2021			2021
''lower than normal''(-).
Min.	Max.	Avg.	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	June	July	Aug.	Sept.
Manufacturing industry
Trend in production rate	- 53.0	+ 20.0	- 0.9	+ 0.6	+ 5.1	+ 0.5	- 9.0	+ 5.7	+ 4.0	.	.
Trend in domestic orders	- 48.7	+ 16.0	- 7.7	- 2.2	- 4.3	- 6.4	- 4.2	+ 3.4	+ 1.2	.	.
Trend in export orders	- 56.3	+ 30.0	- 2.5	- 0.3	+ 4.7	- 0.7	- 3.8	+ 4.8	+ 4.3	.	.
Assessment of export order books	- 61.0	+ 10.0	- 22.5	- 2.8	- 0.5	- 2.0	+ 0.3	- 0.9	- 0.9	.	.
Trend in prices	- 21.0	+ 28.0	+ 1.4	+ 24.8	+ 26.4	+ 21.7	+ 28.0	+ 21.3	+ 22.7	.	.
Price expectations	- 24.0	+ 43.0	+ 6.9	+ 33.2	+ 33.8	+ 29.6	+ 40.4	+ 31.0	+ 32.7	.	.
Production capacity
(in percentage of the total production capacity)	70.1	84.6	78.9	-	-	79.1	-
Source: quarterly production capacity survey
Business-related services
Trend in activity	- 73.0	+ 37.0	+ 9.5	+ 11.2	+ 15.3	+ 17.4	+ 14.1	+ 14.8	+ 15.6	.	.
Trend in employment	- 49.4	+ 34.0	+ 6.6	+ 5.3	+ 3.2	+ 10.8	+ 4.4	+ 7.8	+ 8.1	.	.
Employment expectations	- 35.0	+ 48.0	+ 17.4	+ 38.2	+ 26.5	+ 35.0	+ 41.2	+ 27.4	+ 30.7	.	.
Trend in prices	- 15.8	+ 12.3	+ 1.8	+ 7.1	+ 5.4	+ 12.3	+ 9.3	+ 3.0	+ 4.4	.	.
Price expectations	- 13.0	+ 30.0	+ 6.9	+ 16.1	+ 19.5	+ 22.4	+ 27.1	+ 14.9	+ 16.6	.	.
Building industry
Trend in activity	- 66.6	+ 34.7	- 4.2	+ 4.8	+ 3.6	+ 5.7	+ 2.1	+ 7.1	+ 6.6	.	.
Trend in employment	- 38.0	+ 22.0	- 5.1	- 1.3	+ 0.4	+ 2.3	+ 2.1	- 1.2	- 0.4	.	.
Employment expectations	- 50.0	+ 30.0	- 4.1	+ 17.0	+ 19.2	+ 15.2	+ 17.9	+ 19.5	+ 19.3	.	.
Trend in prices	- 27.1	+ 34.8	- 1.5	+ 23.8	+ 32.4	+ 34.2	+ 34.8	+ 22.0	+ 27.4	.	.
Price expectations	- 20.6	+ 46.5	+ 5.5	+ 41.5	+ 44.8	+ 43.8	+ 46.5	+ 35.4	+ 40.6	.	.
Trade
Trend in sales	- 50.1	+ 43.0	- 0.9	+ 4.2	- 19.1	- 15.2	- 23.4	- 1.9	- 3.6	.	.
Assessment of sales	- 50.0	+ 28.0	- 9.5	- 22.3	- 18.9	- 16.9	- 9.4	- 6.9	- 8.6	.	.
Assessment of level of stocks ²	- 12.9	+ 38.1	+ 11.9	+ 1.0	- 2.9	- 3.2	- 4.2	+ 2.4	+ 1.3	.	.
Trend in prices	- 23.5	+ 50.0	+ 1.8	+ 10.8	+ 34.9	+ 19.7	+ 28.6	+ 7.7	+ 11.1	.	.
Price expectations	- 14.2	+ 66.2	+ 11.2	+ 26.6	+ 28.5	+ 34.3	+ 34.5	+ 19.5	+ 22.2	.	.

1. Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.
2. A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone [phone]	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

5

Quarterly business survey on credit conditions - October 2021

Companies feel tighter borrowing conditions in October

General conditions for access to bank loans have got tighter, according to the quarterly survey carried out in October 2021 on the appraisal of borrowing conditions by companies. The percentage of firms that find borrowing conditions restrictive rose from 9.1 % in July to 10.1 % in October, following a constant decline since April 2020 and the start of the COVID-19 crisis, when it had reached a peak of 16.3 %.

The findings per branch of activity reveal that borrowing conditions were considered to be more restrictive, especially in the building industry, where 13.9 % of firms perceived access to bank loans as being difficult, compared with 6.5 % in July. In the manufacturing industry, the rate also rose, from 5.5 % to 6.8 %. On the other hand, credit constraint perception declined a little in the business-related services sector, while still posting the highest rate with a percentage of 14.4 % of companies finding borrowing conditions strict.

With the exception of medium-sized firms (between 50 and 249 employees), the percentage of companies regarding borrowing conditions as restrictive has risen in all company size categories, in particular among very large firms (500 employees or more). In absolute terms, it is still the small firms (less than 50 employees) that regard credit conditions as being the tightest.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels