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    BARC   GB0031348658

BARCLAYS PLC

(BARC)
  Report
Delayed London Stock Exchange  -  11:35:01 2023-02-07 am EST
188.84 GBX   +1.23%
12:00pFTSE 100 outperforms thanks to record BP profit
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08:58aRetail investors flock to small-cap AI firms as Big Tech battles for share
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Factbox-Big banks see global economy slowing more in 2023, with likely U.S. recession

11/30/2022 | 08:33am EST
FILE PHOTO: A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange, in New York City

(Reuters) - The world's largest investment banks expect global economic growth to slow further in 2023 following a year roiled by the Ukraine conflict and soaring inflation, which triggered one of the fastest monetary policy tightening cycles in recent times.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has increased interest rates by 375 basis points this year since rolling out its first hike in March. This has sparked worries about a recession, even as the central bank is expected to temper its pace of hikes.

Real GDP (annual Y/Y) forecasts for 2023:

Bank Global U.S. China

Morgan Stanley 2.20% 0.50% 5%

Goldman Sachs 1.80% 1% 4.50%

Barclays 1.70% -0.1% 3.80%

J.P.Morgan 1.6% 1% 4%

BNP Paribas 2.3% -0.10% 4.50%

UBS 2.1% 0.1% 4.5%

BofA 2.3% -0.4% 5.5%

Credit Suisse 1.6% 0.8% 4.5%

Deutsche Bank ~2% 0.8% 4.5%

Citi 1.9% 0.7% 5.6%

U.S. inflation forecast for 2023 and Fed terminal rate forecast:

Bank U.S. Inflation Fed Terminal Rate

(annual Y/Y for

2023)

Morgan Stanley Headline CPI: 4.625% (by Jan '23)

3.3%Core PCE: 3.8%

Goldman Sachs Headline CPI: 3.2% 5 - 5.25%

Core CPI: 3.2% (by May '23)

Core PCE: 2.9%

Barclays Headline CPI: 3.70% 5% - 5.25% (by March

'23)

J.P.Morgan Headline CPI: 5% (by Jan '23)

4.1%Core CPI: 4.2%

BNP Paribas Headline CPI: 4.40% 5% - 5.25% (by Q1 '23)

UBS Headline CPI: 3.6% 5%

BofA Headline CPI: 4.4% 5% - 5.25%(by March

'23)

Credit Suisse Headline CPI: 3.8% 4.75% - 5% (by March

'23)

Deutsche Bank Headline CPI: 4.3% 5.125% (by March '23)

Citi Headline CPI: 4.1% 5.25% - 5.5%

Morgan Stanley sees the Fed delivering its first rate cut by December 2023, taking the benchmark rate to 4.375% by the end of that year. Barclays sees the rate between 4.25% and 4.50% by the end of next year, while Deutsche Bank sees it at 4.625% after a rate cut.

UBS expects U.S. inflation to be "close enough" to the Fed's 2% target by the end of 2023 for the central bank to consider rate cuts. BofA sees the rate between 2.75% and 3.00% by the end of 2024.

Forecasts for currency pairs, yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries, S&P 500 target by the end of 2023:

Bank EUR/USD USD/ USD/JPY S&P 500 U.S.

CNY Target 10-year

yield

Morgan Stanley 1.08 6.8 140 3,900 3.50%

Goldman Sachs 1.05 6.9 140 4,000 4.34%

Barclays 1.05 7.3 131 3.75%

J.P.Morgan 1.0 7.2 133 3.4%

BNP Paribas 1.06 6.9 128 3,400 3.50%

UBS 1.04 6.9 135 3,700 3%

(by June

2023)

BofA 1.1 7 137 4,000 3.25%

Credit Suisse 1.02 7.3 135 4.10%

Deutsche Bank 1.1 6.8 125 4,500 3.65%

Citi 1.15 6.90 133 4.35%

Wells Fargo 1.01 - 1.09 130 - 140

Most banks see the euro falling below parity to the dollar during the year, before clawing back by year-end.

As of 1315 GMT on Nov. 30, 2022:

EUR/USD: 1.038

USD/CNY: 7.07

USD/JPY: 138.75

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: 3.72%

S&P 500 level (as of close on Nov. 29): 3,957.63

(Compiled by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Edited by Sriraj Kalluvila, Anil D'Silva and Shounak Dasgupta)


ę Reuters 2022
Stocks mentioned in the article
ChangeLast1st jan.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / EURO (AUD/EUR) 0.92% 0.64721 Delayed Quote.0.74%
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR (AUD/USD) 0.82% 0.69487 Delayed Quote.1.54%
BARCLAYS PLC 1.23% 188.84 Delayed Quote.19.13%
BNP PARIBAS 2.62% 62.34 Real-time Quote.14.08%
BRITISH POUND / EURO (GBP/EUR) 0.16% 1.1222 Delayed Quote.-1.21%
BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR (GBP/USD) 0.11% 1.2039 Delayed Quote.-0.43%
CANADIAN DOLLAR / EURO (CAD/EUR) 0.42% 0.696069 Delayed Quote.0.28%
CANADIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR (CAD/USD) 0.30% 0.74585 Delayed Quote.1.04%
CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG 1.03% 3.233 Delayed Quote.15.77%
DEUTSCHE BANK AG 1.53% 11.53 Delayed Quote.7.25%
EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD) -0.06% 1.07222 Delayed Quote.0.81%
FLOKI INU (FLOKI/USD) 0.00%End-of-day quote.0.00%
INDIAN RUPEE / EURO (INR/EUR) -0.11% 0.011253 Delayed Quote.-0.20%
INDIAN RUPEE / US DOLLAR (INR/USD) -0.08% 0.012078 Delayed Quote.0.62%
MORGAN STANLEY 0.32% 99.22 Delayed Quote.16.95%
NEUTRINO USD (USDN/USD) -0.80% 0.3116 End-of-day quote.-80.14%
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR / US DOLLAR (NZD/USD) 0.17% 0.632 Delayed Quote.-0.36%
US DOLLAR / CHINESE YUAN RENMINBI (USD/CNY) -0.02% 6.7905 Delayed Quote.-1.80%
US DOLLAR / EURO (USD/EUR) 0.05% 0.932644 Delayed Quote.-0.80%
US DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN (USD/JPY) -1.21% 131.033 Delayed Quote.0.73%
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY 0.94% 48.13 Delayed Quote.15.48%
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Analyst Recommendations on BARCLAYS PLC
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Financials
Sales 2022 25 080 M 30 118 M 30 118 M
Net income 2022 4 924 M 5 913 M 5 913 M
Net Debt 2022 - - -
P/E ratio 2022 6,41x
Yield 2022 3,78%
Capitalization 29 972 M 35 992 M 35 992 M
Capi. / Sales 2022 1,20x
Capi. / Sales 2023 1,14x
Nbr of Employees 81 600
Free-Float 99,6%
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Technical analysis trends BARCLAYS PLC
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Income Statement Evolution
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Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 22
Last Close Price 188,84 GBX
Average target price 237,21 GBX
Spread / Average Target 25,6%
EPS Revisions
Managers and Directors
C. S. Venkatakrishnan Group Chief Executive Officer & Director
Angela Anna Cross Group Finance Director & Executive Director
Nigel Paul Higgins Group Chairman
Alistair Currie Group Chief Operating Officer
Laura Padovani Global Head-Compliance Services
Sector and Competitors