Between a gloomy economic situation in Europe and China on the one hand, and exponentially rising energy costs since the taming of Russian supplies dried up on the other, BASF is caught between a rock and a hard place for a long time to come.

The year had ended badly, as expected, with operating profit at twenty-year lows and a dividend barely covered by free cash flow. BASF, which had been planning to launch a share buyback program, was forced to abandon the idea at the same time as it launched the first phase of its cost-cutting plan.

As the bad times continued, a second phase was added a few months later, coupled with a one-third cut in the dividend. Despite management's incantations, no recovery has been observed in China - and even less so in Europe. The Group's factories continue to operate at very low capacities, at levels not seen since the euro crisis, while the prices of its products remain at rock bottom.

The providential rebound, or at least its beginnings, was expected to come mainly from China - the world's largest market. If all goes well, BASF will inaugurate its ten-billion-euro mega-plant in Guangdong next year. Obviously, the risk of a situation that could degenerate in Taiwan hangs like a sword of Damocles.

Apart from this dramatic scenario, is the worst already over? Perhaps. At the end of last week, BASF published nine-month results in line with those published at the same time last year. This leads some analysts to predict that the bottom of the cycle has been reached.

Be that as it may, MarketScreener analysts are of the opinion that the conglomerate will not escape a long and painful restructuring, following the example of ThyssenKrupp. A partial listing - a very fashionable formula in Germany - is already planned for the agriculture division.

If history is any guide, it is likely to take more than this for the market to reassess the situation positively. Increasingly common in Germany, where the governance and structure of large conglomerates are often singled out for their archaism, these major maneuvers rarely produce sparks on the stock market.

In the meantime, BASF has undertaken to return EUR3 billion a year to its shareholders by 2028. This is unlikely to be a problem, given the reduced investment volume from 2026 onwards - once the Guangdong site has been fully commissioned - and the savings plan of over EUR2 billion a year by then.

Investors who like cyclical industries when they're at their worst will potentially see an attractive entry opportunity. However, it remains difficult to justify taking such a risk in the face of other opportunities at the moment.