The following discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations of the Company should be read in conjunction with the Company's audited financial statements for the fiscal years ended October 3, 2020, September 28, 2019 and September 29, 2018 and related notes appearing elsewhere in this Report. Our actual results may not be indicative of future performance. This discussion and analysis contains forward-looking statements and involves numerous risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to, those discussed or incorporated by reference in the sections of this Report titled "Special Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements" and "Risk Factors". Actual results may differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statements. Certain monetary amounts, percentages and other figures included in this Report have been subjected to rounding adjustments. Accordingly, figures shown as totals in certain tables may not be the arithmetic aggregation of the figures that precede them, and figures expressed as percentages in the text may not total 100% or, as applicable, when aggregated, may not be the arithmetic aggregation of the percentages that precede them.

We refer to the fiscal year ended October 3, 2020 as "fiscal 2020". We refer to the fiscal year ended September 28, 2019 as "fiscal 2019" and we refer to the fiscal year ended September 29, 2018 as "fiscal 2018". There were 53 weeks in fiscal year 2020 and there were 52 weeks in fiscal years 2019 and 2018.

Executive Overview

Blue Bird is the leading independent designer and manufacturer of school buses. Our longevity and reputation in the school bus industry have made Blue Bird an iconic American brand. We distinguish ourselves from our principal competitors by dedicating our focus to the design, engineering, manufacture and sale of school buses, and related parts. As the only principal manufacturer of chassis and body production specifically designed for school bus applications, Blue Bird is recognized as an industry leader for school bus innovation, safety, product quality/reliability/durability, efficiency, and lower operating costs. In addition, Blue Bird is the market leader in alternative fuel applications with its propane-powered, gasoline-powered, compressed natural gas ("CNG")-powered, and all-electric-powered school buses.

Blue Bird sells its buses and parts through an extensive network of United States and Canadian dealers that, in their territories, are exclusive to Blue Bird on Type C and Type D school buses. Blue Bird also sells directly to major fleet operators, the United States Government, state governments, and authorized dealers in a number of foreign countries.

Impact of COVID-19 on Our Business

Beginning in our second fiscal quarter of 2020, the novel coronavirus known as "COVID-19" began to spread throughout the world, resulting in a global pandemic. The pandemic triggered a significant downturn in global commerce as early as February 2020 and the challenging market conditions are expected to continue for an extended period of time. In early April, in an effort to contain the spread of COVID-19, maintain the well-being of our employees and stakeholders, address the reduced demand from our customers and be responsive and efficient with supply chain constraints, we closed our manufacturing facilities for two weeks and requested our office employees to work from home. In late April, we successfully restarted manufacturing operations and have continued to manufacture buses since that time without further material disruption. While we have not experienced any pervasive COVID-19 illnesses to date, if we were to experience some form of outbreak within our facilities, we would take all appropriate measures to protect the health and safety of our employees, which could include another temporary halt in production.

The pandemic has resulted, and is likely to continue to result, in significant economic disruption and has adversely affected our business. It will continue to adversely impact our business for a significant portion of our fiscal year 2021 and perhaps beyond. Significant uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of the impact and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the overall U.S and global economy. While the global market downturn, closures and limitations on movement are expected to be temporary, the duration of any demand reductions, production and supply chain disruptions, and related financial impacts, cannot be estimated at this time.

The full impacts from COVID-19 on the Company's financial results in fiscal year 2020 negatively affected our revenues and profits. We continue to monitor and assess the level of future customer demand, the ability of school boards to make timely decisions, the ability of suppliers to resume and maintain operations, the ability of our employees to continue to work, and our ability to maintain continuous production as we plan for fiscal 2021 and beyond. A prolonged economic downturn would have a material adverse impact on our sales and financial results beyond fiscal 2020. See PART I, Item 1A. "Risk Factors", of this Annual Report for a discussion of the material risks we believe we face particularly related to the COVID-19 pandemic.




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The Company has taken actions to control spending and secure adequate liquidity, including minor headcount rationalization and changes to the minimum required financial covenants via execution of a third amendment to the Credit Agreement in December 2020. Further detail and discussion of this amendment can be found in the "Liquidity and Capital Resources" section of this Item 7. "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" of this Annual Report on Form 10-K. Even with adequate liquidity, we are evaluating and considering further actions to reduce costs and spending across our organization to be responsive to potential longer-term impacts on our business from the pandemic. Our actions may include reducing hiring activities, limiting discretionary spending, limiting spending on capital investment projects or other steps necessary to preserve adequate liquidity. We will continue to actively monitor the situation and may need to take further actions required by federal, state or local authorities, or enact measures we determine are in the best interests of our employees, customers, suppliers and shareholders. For further details and discussion about our liquidity, refer to the following "Liquidity and Capital Resources" section of this Item 7. "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Factors Affecting Our Revenues

Our revenues are driven primarily by the following factors:



•      Property tax revenues. Property tax revenues are one of the major sources
       of funding for school districts, and therefore new school buses. Property
       tax revenues are a function of land and building prices, based on
       assessments of property value by state or county assessors and millage
       rates voted by the local electorate.


•      Student enrollment and delivery mechanisms for learning. Increases or
       decreases in the number of school bus riders have a direct impact on
       school district demand. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and evolving
       protocols for social distancing and public health concerns, the future
       form of educational delivery is uncertain, and increased remote learning
       could reasonably be expected to decrease the number of school bus riders.


•      Revenue mix. We are able to charge more for certain of our products (e.g.,
       Type C propane-powered school buses, Electric buses, Type D buses, and
       buses with higher option content) than other products. The mix of products
       sold in any fiscal period can directly impact our revenues for the period.


•      Strength of the dealer network. We rely on our dealers, as well as a small
       number of major fleet operators, to be the direct point of contact with
       school districts and their purchasing agents. An effective dealer is
       capable of expanding revenues within a given school district by matching
       that district's needs to our capabilities, offering options that would not
       otherwise be provided to the district.


•      Pricing. Our products are sold to school districts throughout the United
       States and Canada. Each state and each Canadian province has its own set
       of regulations that govern the purchase of products, including school
       buses, by their school districts. We and our dealers must navigate these
       regulations, purchasing procedures, and the districts' specifications in
       order to reach mutually acceptable price terms. Pricing may or may not be
       favorable to us, depending upon a number of factors impacting purchasing
       decisions.


•      Buying patterns of major fleets. Major fleets regularly compete against
       one another for existing accounts. Fleets are also continuously trying to
       win the business of school districts that operate their own transportation
       services. These activities can have either a positive or negative impact
       on our sales, depending on the brand preference of the fleet that wins the
       business. Major fleets also periodically review their fleet sizes and
       replacement patterns due to funding availability as well as the
       profitability of existing routes. These actions can impact total purchases
       by fleets in a given year.


•      Seasonality. Historically, our sales have been subject to seasonal
       variation based on the school calendar with the peak season during our
       third and fourth fiscal quarters. Sales during the third and fourth fiscal
       quarters were typically greater than the first and second fiscal quarters
       due to the desire of municipalities to have any new buses that they order
       available to them at the beginning of the new school year. With the
       COVID-19 pandemic impact on school systems and the uncertainty surrounding
       in-person schooling schedules and duration, seasonality has become
       unpredictable. Seasonality and variations from historical seasonality have
       impacted the comparison of results between fiscal periods.


Factors Affecting Our Expenses and Other Items

Our expenses and other line items in our Consolidated Statements of Operations are principally driven by the following factors:



•      Cost of goods sold. The components of our cost of goods sold consist of
       material costs (principally powertrain components, steel and rubber, as
       well as aluminum and copper), labor expense, and overhead. Our cost of
       goods sold may vary from period to period due to changes in sales volume,
       efforts by certain suppliers to pass through the economics associated with
       key commodities, design changes with respect to specific components,
       design changes with respect to specific bus models, wage increases for
       plant labor, productivity of plant labor, delays in receiving materials
       and other logistical challenges, and the impact of overhead items such as
       utilities.



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•      Selling, general and administrative expenses. Our selling, general and
       administrative expenses include costs associated with our selling and
       marketing efforts, engineering, centralized finance, human resources,
       purchasing, and information technology services, along with other
       administrative matters and functions. In most instances, other than direct
       costs associated with sales and marketing programs, the principal
       component of these costs is salary expense. Changes from period to period
       are typically driven by the number of our employees, as well as by merit
       increases provided to experienced personnel.



•      Interest expense. Our interest expense relates to costs associated with
       our debt instruments and reflects both the amount of indebtedness and the
       interest rate that we are required to pay on our debt. Interest expense
       also includes unrealized gains or losses from interest rate hedges, if
       any, and changes in the fair value of interest rate derivatives not
       designated in hedge accounting relationships, if any, as well as expenses
       related to debt guarantees, if any.


•      Income taxes. We make estimates of the amounts to recognize for income
       taxes in each tax jurisdiction in which we operate. In addition,
       provisions are established for withholding taxes related to the transfer
       of cash between jurisdictions and for uncertain tax positions taken.


•      Other expense, net. This includes periodic pension expense as well as
       gains or losses on foreign currency, if any. Other immaterial amounts not
       associated with operating expenses may also be included here.


•      Equity in net income of non-consolidated affiliate. We include in this
       line item our 50% share of net income or loss from our investment in Micro
       Bird, our unconsolidated Canadian joint venture.


Key Non-GAAP Financial Measures We Use to Evaluate Our Performance

This filing includes the following non-GAAP financial measures "Adjusted EBITDA"; "Adjusted EBITDA Margin"; and "Free Cash Flow". Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow are financial metrics that are utilized by management and the board of directors to determine (a) the annual cash bonus payouts, if any, to be made to certain members of management based upon the terms of the Company's Management Incentive Plan, and (b) whether the performance criteria have been met for the vesting of certain equity awards granted annually to certain members of management based upon the terms of the Company's Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan. Additionally, consolidated EBITDA, which is an adjusted EBITDA metric defined by our Amended Credit Agreement that could differ from Adjusted EBITDA discussed above as the adjustments to the calculations are not uniform, is used to determine the Company's ongoing compliance with several financial covenant requirements, including being utilized in the denominator of the calculation of the Total Net Leverage Ratio. Accordingly, management views these non-GAAP financial metrics as key for the above purposes and as a useful way to evaluate the performance of our operations as discussed further below.

Adjusted EBITDA is defined as net income prior to interest income; interest expense including the component of operating lease expense (which is presented as a single operating expense in selling, general and administrative expenses in our GAAP financial statements) that represents interest expense on lease liabilities; income taxes; and depreciation and amortization including the component of operating lease expense (which is presented as a single operating expense in selling, general and administrative expenses in our GAAP financial statements) that represents amortization charges on right-of-use lease assets; as adjusted for certain non-cash charges or credits that we may record on a recurring basis such as stock-compensation expense and unrealized gains or losses on certain derivative financial instruments; net gains or losses on the disposal of assets as well as certain charges such as (i) significant product design changes; (ii) transaction related costs; (iii) discrete expenses related to major cost cutting initiatives; or (iv) costs directly attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. While certain of the charges that are added back in the Adjusted EBITDA calculation, such as transaction related costs and operational transformation and major product redesign initiatives, represent operating expenses that may be recorded in more than one annual period, the significant project or transaction giving rise to such expenses is not considered to be indicative of the Company's normal operations. Accordingly, we believe that these, as well as the other credits and charges that comprise the amounts utilized in the determination of Adjusted EBITDA described above, should not be used in evaluating the Company's ongoing annual operating performance. We define Adjusted EBITDA Margin as Adjusted EBITDA as a percentage of net sales. Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin are not measures of performance defined in accordance with GAAP. The measures are used as a supplement to GAAP results in evaluating certain aspects of our business, as described below.

We believe that Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin are useful to investors in evaluating our performance because the measures consider the performance of our ongoing operations, excluding decisions made with respect to capital investment, financing, and certain other significant initiatives or transactions as outlined in the preceding paragraph. We believe the non-GAAP measures offer additional financial metrics that, when coupled with the GAAP results and the reconciliation to GAAP results, provide a more complete understanding of our results of operations and the factors and trends affecting our business.




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Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin should not be considered as alternatives to net income as an indicator of our performance or as alternatives to any other measure prescribed by GAAP as there are limitations to using such non-GAAP measures. Although we believe that Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin may enhance an evaluation of our operating performance based on recent revenue generation and product/overhead cost control because they exclude the impact of prior decisions made about capital investment, financing, and certain other significant initiatives or transactions, (i) other companies in Blue Bird's industry may define Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin differently than we do and, as a result, they may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies in Blue Bird's industry, and (ii) Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA Margin exclude certain financial information that some may consider important in evaluating our performance.

We compensate for these limitations by providing disclosure of the differences between Adjusted EBITDA and GAAP results, including providing a reconciliation to GAAP results, to enable investors to perform their own analysis of our ongoing operating results.

Our measure of Free Cash Flow is used in addition to and in conjunction with results presented in accordance with GAAP and it should not be relied upon to the exclusion of GAAP financial measures. Free Cash Flow reflects an additional way of evaluating our liquidity that, when viewed with our GAAP results, provides a more complete understanding of factors and trends affecting our cash flows. We strongly encourage investors to review our financial statements and publicly-filed reports in their entirety and not to rely on any single financial measure.

We define Free Cash Flow as total cash provided by/used in operating activities as adjusted for net cash paid for the acquisition or disposal of fixed assets and intangible assets. We use Free Cash Flow, and ratios based on Free Cash Flow, to conduct and evaluate our business because, although it is similar to cash flow from operations, we believe it is a more conservative measure of cash flow since purchases of fixed assets and intangible assets are a necessary component of ongoing operations. Accordingly, we expect Free Cash Flow to be less than operating cash flows.

Our Segments

We manage our business in two operating segments, which are also our reportable segments: (i) the Bus segment, which involves the design, engineering, manufacture and sales of school buses and extended warranties; and (ii) the Parts segment, which includes the sale of replacement bus parts. Financial information is reported on the basis that it is used internally by the chief operating decision maker ("CODM") in evaluating segment performance and deciding how to allocate resources to segments. The President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company has been identified as the CODM. Management evaluates the segments based primarily upon revenues and gross profit.



Consolidated Results of Operations for the fiscal years ended October 3, 2020
and September 28, 2019:
(in thousands)                                        2020           2019
Net sales                                          $ 879,221     $ 1,018,874
Cost of goods sold                                   783,021         885,400
Gross profit                                       $  96,200     $   133,474
Operating expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses          74,206          89,642
Operating profit                                   $  21,994     $    43,832
Interest expense                                     (12,252 )       (12,879 )
Interest income                                           11               9
Other income (expense), net                              738          (1,331 )
Income before income taxes                         $  10,491     $    29,631
Income tax expense                                    (1,519 )        (7,573 )
Equity in net income of non-consolidated affiliate     3,213           2,242
Net income                                         $  12,185     $    24,300
Other financial data:
Adjusted EBITDA                                    $  54,681     $    81,829
Adjusted EBITDA Margin                                   6.2 %           8.0 %




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The following provides the results of operations of Blue Bird's two reportable
segments:
(in thousands)             2020          2019
Net Sales by Segment
Bus                     $ 822,616    $   952,242
Parts                      56,605         66,632
Total                   $ 879,221    $ 1,018,874

Gross Profit by Segment
Bus                     $  76,059    $   110,015
Parts                      20,141         23,459
Total                   $  96,200    $   133,474

Net sales. Net sales were $879.2 million for the fiscal year ended 2020, a decrease of $139.7 million, or 13.7%, compared to $1.019 billion for the fiscal year ended 2019. The decrease in net sales is attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic which caused the unplanned and abrupt increase in remote learning arrangements and an uncertainty in how school districts administered and will continue to administer schooling, resulting in a decreased demand for school buses.

Bus sales decreased $129.6 million, or 13.6%, reflecting a decrease in units booked which was partially offset by higher sales prices. In the fiscal year ended 2020, 8,878 units were booked compared to 11,017 units booked for the fiscal year ended 2019. The decrease in Bus revenue and volumes reflect the timing of orders being significantly impacted by COVID-19. The 7.2% increase in unit price for the fiscal year ended 2020 compared to the fiscal year ended 2019 mainly reflects the full-year impact of pricing actions taken in fiscal 2019 to partially offset commodity costs, as well as product and customer mix changes.

Parts sales decreased $10.0 million, or 15.0%, for the fiscal year ended 2020 compared to the fiscal year ended 2019, as we had lower sales volume, mainly from lower school bus units in operation due to school closures caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Stay at home orders and school closures reduced bus repair and maintenance activities due to lower bus use.

Cost of goods sold. Total cost of goods sold was $783.0 million for the fiscal year ended 2020, a decrease of $102.4 million, or 11.6%, compared to $885.4 million for the fiscal year ended 2019. As a percentage of net sales, total cost of goods sold increased from 86.9% to 89.1%.

Bus segment cost of goods sold decreased $95.7 million, or 11.4%, for the fiscal year ended 2020 compared to the fiscal year ended 2019 due to reduced sales volumes. The average cost of goods sold per unit for the fiscal year ended 2020 was 10.0% higher compared to the average cost of goods sold per unit for the fiscal year ended 2019 due to increases in manufacturing costs from several COVID-19 related factors including hourly workforce absenteeism and supply disruptions, each of which created manufacturing inefficiencies and higher costs.

The $6.7 million, or 15.5%, decrease in parts segment cost of goods sold for the fiscal year ended 2020 compared to the fiscal year ended 2019 aligned with the decrease in sales volume noted above.

Operating profit. Operating profit was $22.0 million for the fiscal year ended 2020, a decrease of $21.8 million, or 49.8%, compared to $43.8 million for the fiscal year ended 2019. Profitability was negatively impacted by a decrease of $37.3 million in gross profit, which was partially offset by a decrease of $15.4 million in selling, general and administrative expenses due in large part to several significant product development initiatives during fiscal 2019 as well as cost control measures implemented in fiscal 2020, as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including headcount reductions and lower travel-related expense.

Interest expense. Interest expense was $12.3 million for the fiscal year ended 2020, a decrease of $0.6 million, or 4.9%, compared to $12.9 million for the fiscal year ended 2019. The decrease was primarily attributed to lower interest rates and a lower average borrowing level on the term debt.

Income taxes. We recorded income tax expense of $1.5 million for the fiscal year ended 2020, compared to an income tax expense of $7.6 million for the fiscal year ended 2019. The reduction in expense was primarily attributed to lower amounts of taxable income in 2020 due to the impacts of COVID-19 on our operations.







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The effective tax rate for the fiscal year ended 2020 differed from the statutory Federal income tax rate of 21.0%. There were minor items that lowered the effective tax rate to 14.5%, primarily the impacts of tax credits and state taxes on the Federal rate. These were offset to a lesser degree by the recording of a partial valuation allowance for state taxes and minor provision to return adjustments.

The effective tax rate for the fiscal year ended 2019 was 25.6%, which differed from the statutory federal income tax rate of 21%. The difference was mainly due to the unfavorable impact of valuation allowances, share-based and other compensation limitations, and state taxes, which included the application of tax credits claimed as offsets against our payroll tax liabilities. The valuation allowance increased mainly due to the accrual of income tax credits that were greater than our ability to utilize before expiration. These items were partially offset by benefits from federal and state tax credits.

Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA was $54.7 million, or 6.2% of net sales, for the fiscal year ended 2020, a decrease of $27.1 million, or 33.2%, compared to $81.8 million, or 8.0% of net sales, for the fiscal year ended 2019. The decrease in Adjusted EBITDA was primarily the result of decreased revenues and gross profit due to the COVID-19 pandemic as well as higher manufacturing costs. The decrease was partially offset by lower adjusted selling, general and administrative expenses.



The following table sets forth a reconciliation of net income to Adjusted EBITDA
for the fiscal years presented:
(in thousands)                                            2020         2019
Net income                                             $ 12,185     $ 24,300
Adjustments:
Interest expense, net (1)                                12,616       13,279
Income tax expense                                        1,519        7,573
Depreciation, amortization, and disposals (2)            15,096       11,102
Operational transformation initiatives                    3,404       10,594
Foreign currency hedges                                       -          109
Share-based compensation                                  4,141        4,273
Product redesign initiatives                              4,068       10,540
Restructuring charges                                       646            -
Costs directly attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic (3)    1,000            -
Other                                                         6           59
Adjusted EBITDA                                        $ 54,681     $ 81,829
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (percentage of net sales)            6.2 %        8.0 %





(1) Includes $0.4 million and $0.4 million for fiscal 2020 and 2019,
respectively, representing interest expense on operating lease liabilities,
which are a component of lease expense and presented as a single operating
expense in selling, general and administrative expenses on our Consolidated
Statements of Operations.
(2) Includes $0.7 million and $0.7 million for fiscal 2020 and 2019,
respectively, representing amortization on right-of-use operating lease assets,
which are a component of lease expense and presented as a single operating
expense in selling, general and administrative expenses on our Consolidated
Statements of Operations.
(3) Primarily costs incurred for third party cleaning services and personal
protective equipment for our employees in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.


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Consolidated Results of Operations for the fiscal years ended September 28, 2019
and September 29, 2018:
(in thousands)                                         2019            2018
Net sales                                          $ 1,018,874     $ 1,024,976
Cost of goods sold                                     885,400         902,988
Gross profit                                       $   133,474     $   121,988
Operating expenses
Selling, general and administrative expenses            89,642          86,911
Operating profit                                   $    43,832     $    35,077
Interest expense                                       (12,879 )        (6,661 )
Interest income                                              9              70
Other expense, net                                      (1,331 )        (1,613 )
Income before income taxes                         $    29,631     $    26,873
Income tax (expense) benefit                            (7,573 )         2,620
Equity in net income of non-consolidated affiliate       2,242           1,327
Net income                                         $    24,300     $    30,820
Other financial data:
Adjusted EBITDA                                    $    81,829     $    70,379
Adjusted EBITDA Margin                                     8.0 %           6.9 %



The following provides the results of operations of Blue Bird's two reportable
segments:
(in thousands)              2019           2018
Net Sales by Segment
Bus                     $   952,242    $   962,769
Parts                        66,632         62,207
Total                   $ 1,018,874    $ 1,024,976
Gross Profit by Segment
Bus                     $   110,015    $   100,002
Parts                        23,459         21,986
Total                   $   133,474    $   121,988

Net sales. Net sales were $1.02 billion for the fiscal year ended 2019, a decrease of $6.1 million, or 0.6%, compared to $1.02 billion for the fiscal year ended 2018.

Bus sales decreased $10.5 million, or 1.1%, reflecting a decrease in units booked partially offset by slightly higher sales prices. In the fiscal year ended 2019, 11,017 units were booked compared to 11,649 units booked in the fiscal year ended 2018. The average net sales price per unit for the fiscal year ended 2019 was 4.6% higher than the price per unit for the fiscal year ended 2018. The increase in unit price mainly reflects pricing actions taken to partially offset commodity costs, as well as product and customer mix changes.

Parts sales increased $4.4 million, or 7.1%, for the fiscal year ended 2019 compared to the fiscal year ended 2018, resulting from higher volumes primarily due to incentive and shipping programs launched in the fiscal year ended 2018.

Cost of goods sold. Total cost of goods sold was $885.4 million for the fiscal year ended 2019, a decrease of $17.6 million, or 1.9%, compared to $903.0 million for the fiscal year ended 2018. As a percentage of net sales, total cost of goods sold decreased from 88.1% to 86.9%.

Bus segment cost of goods sold decreased $20.5 million, or 2.4%, for the fiscal year ended 2019 compared to the fiscal year ended 2018. The average cost of goods sold per unit was 3.2% higher compared to the average cost of goods sold per unit for the fiscal year ended 2018 due to raw material price increases related to rising commodity costs and tariffs, which were offset by cost savings resulting from our operational improvement initiatives.




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The $3.0 million, or 7.3%, increase in parts segment cost of goods sold for the fiscal year ended 2019 compared to the fiscal year ended 2018 was primarily attributed to increased parts sales volume.

Operating profit. Operating profit was $43.8 million for the fiscal year ended 2019, an increase of $8.8 million, or 25.0%, compared to $35.1 million for the fiscal year ended 2018. Profitability was positively impacted by an increase of $11.5 million in gross profit, which was partially offset by an increase of $2.7 million in selling, general and administrative expenses due in large part to several non-recurring product development initiatives as well as higher share-based compensation expense.

Interest expense. Interest expense was $12.9 million for the fiscal year ended 2019, an increase of $6.2 million, or 93.3%, compared to $6.7 million for the fiscal year ended 2018. The increase was primarily attributed to a point increase in the weighed-average annual effective interest rate on the term loan, higher average borrowing levels, and changes in the interest rate collar fair value recorded in interest expense.

Income taxes. We recorded income tax expense of $7.6 million for the fiscal year ended 2019, compared to income tax benefit of $2.6 million for the fiscal year ended 2018.

The effective tax rate for the fiscal year ended 2019 was 25.6%, which differed from the federal statutory tax rate of 21.0%. The difference was mainly due to the unfavorable impact of valuation allowances, share-based and other compensation limitations, and state taxes, which included the application of tax credits claimed as offsets against our payroll tax liabilities. The valuation allowance increased mainly due to the accrual of income tax credits that were greater than our ability to utilize before expiration. These items were partially offset by benefits from federal and state tax credits.

The effective tax rate for the fiscal year ended 2018 was (9.7)%, which differed from the statutory federal income tax rate of 24.5%, mainly due to one-time events like the decrease in our uncertain tax positions and a re-measurement of our deferred tax assets and liabilities as a result of the Tax Act. The rate was also favorably impacted by normal tax rate benefit items, such as the domestic production activities deduction, federal and state tax credits, and share based award related deductions in excess of recorded book expense.

Adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA was $81.8 million, or 8.0% of net sales, for the fiscal year ended 2019, an increase of $11.5 million, or 16.3%, compared to $70.4 million, or 6.9% of net sales, for the fiscal year ended 2018. The increase in Adjusted EBITDA was primarily the result of increased gross profit.

The following table sets forth a reconciliation of net income to Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal years presented: (in thousands)

                                      2019         2018
Net income                                       $ 24,300     $ 30,820

Adjustments:


Discontinued operations income                          -          (81 )
Interest expense, net (1)                          13,279        6,591
Income tax expense (benefit)                        7,573       (2,620 )

Depreciation, amortization, and disposals (2) 11,102 9,214 Operational transformation initiatives

             10,594       17,708
Foreign currency hedges                               109         (109 )
Share-based compensation                            4,273        2,628
Product redesign initiatives                       10,540        6,253
Other                                                  59          (25 )
Adjusted EBITDA                                  $ 81,829     $ 70,379

Adjusted EBITDA Margin (percentage of net sales) 8.0 % 6.9 %

(1) Includes $0.4 million for fiscal 2019, representing interest expense on operating lease liabilities, which are a component of lease expense and presented as a single operating expense in selling, general and administrative expenses on our Consolidated Statements of Operations. (2) Includes $0.7 million for fiscal 2019, representing amortization on right-of-use operating lease assets, which are a component of lease expense and presented as a single operating expense in selling, general and administrative expenses on our Consolidated Statements of Operations.



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Liquidity and Capital Resources

The Company's primary sources of liquidity are cash generated from operations, available cash, and borrowings under the credit facility. At October 3, 2020, the Company had $44.5 million of available cash and cash equivalents (net of outstanding checks) and $135.0 million of additional borrowings available under the revolving line of credit portion of its credit facility. The Company's revolving line of credit is available for working capital requirements, capital expenditures and other general corporate purposes. At October 3, 2020, the Company was in compliance with all covenants required by the credit facility.

Credit Agreement

On December 12, 2016 (the "Closing Date"), Blue Bird Body Company as the borrower (the "Borrower"), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Company, executed a $235.0 million five-year credit agreement with Bank of Montreal, which acts as the administrative agent and an issuing bank, Fifth Third Bank, as co-syndication agent and an issuing bank, and Regions Bank, as Co-Syndication Agent, together with other lenders (the "Credit Agreement").

The credit facility provided for under the Credit Agreement consists of a term loan facility in an aggregate initial principal amount of $160.0 million (the "Term Loan Facility") and a revolving credit facility with aggregate commitments of $75.0 million. The revolving credit facility includes a $15.0 million letter of credit sub-facility and $5.0 million swingline sub-facility (the "Revolving Credit Facility," and together with the Term Loan Facility, each a "Credit Facility" and collectively, the "Credit Facilities"). The borrowings under the Term Loan Facility, which were made at the Closing Date, may not be re-borrowed once they are repaid. The borrowings under the Revolving Credit Facility may be repaid and reborrowed from time to time at our election. The proceeds of the loans under the Credit Facilities that were borrowed on the Closing Date were used to finance in part, together with available cash on hand, (i) the repayment of certain existing indebtedness of the Company and its subsidiaries, and (ii) transaction costs associated with the consummation of the Credit Facilities.

The obligations under the Credit Agreement and the related loan documents (including without limitation, the borrowings under the Credit Facilities (including the Incremental Term Loan discussed below) and obligations in respect of certain cash management and hedging obligations owing to the agents, the lenders or their affiliates), are, in each case, secured by a lien on and security interest in substantially all of the assets of the Company and its subsidiaries (including the Borrower), with certain exclusions as set forth in a collateral agreement entered into on December 12, 2016.

Up to $75.0 million of additional term loans and/or revolving credit commitments may be incurred under the Credit Agreement, subject to certain limitations as set forth in the Credit Agreement, and which additional loans and/or commitments would require further commitments from the existing lenders or from new lenders.

The Credit Agreement contains negative and affirmative covenants affecting the Company and its subsidiaries including the Borrower, with certain exceptions set forth in the Credit Agreement. The negative covenants and restrictions include, among others: limitations on liens, dispositions of assets, consolidations and mergers, loans and investments, indebtedness, transactions with affiliates (including management fees and compensation), dividends, distributions and other restricted payments, change in fiscal year, fundamental changes, amendments to and subordinated indebtedness, restrictive agreements, sale and leaseback transactions and certain permitted acquisitions. Dividends, distributions, and other restricted payments are permitted in certain circumstances under the Credit Agreement, generally based upon our levels of excess free cash flow and Unrestricted Cash (as defined in the Credit Agreement) and maintenance of specified Total Net Leverage Ratios.

First Amended Credit Agreement

On September 13, 2018, the Company executed an amendment to the Credit Agreement (the "First Amended Credit Agreement"), by and among the Company, the Borrower, and Bank of Montreal, acting as administrative agent together with other lenders. The First Amended Credit Agreement provided for an aggregate lender commitment of $50.0 million in additional term loan borrowings (the "Incremental Term Loan"). The Incremental Term Loan was intended to finance a portion of a tender offer up to $50.0 million, which transaction closed in October 2018.

After giving effect to the First Amended Credit Agreement, the initial $160.0 million Term Loan Facility, with a balance of $146.2 million at September 29, 2018, increased $50.0 million, and the initial $75.0 million Revolving Credit Facility increased $25.0 million. The amended Credit Facilities each mature on September 13, 2023, the fifth anniversary of the effective date of the First Amended Credit Agreement.




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After giving effect to the First Amended Credit Agreement, the interest payable with respect to the Term Loan Facility was (i) from the first amendment effective date until the first quarter ended on or about September 30, 2018, LIBOR plus 2.25% and (ii) commencing with the fiscal quarter ended on or about September 30, 2018 and thereafter, dependent on the Total Net Leverage Ratio of the Company, an election of either base rate or LIBOR pursuant to the table below. The Company's Total Net Leverage Ratio is defined as the ratio of (a) consolidated net debt to (b) consolidated EBITDA, which is an adjusted EBITDA metric that could differ from Adjusted EBITDA appearing in the Company's periodic filings on Form 10-K or Form 10-Q as the adjustments to the calculations are not uniform, at the end of each fiscal quarter for the consecutive four fiscal quarter period most recently then ending.


 Level            Total Net Leverage Ratio             ABR Loans      Eurodollar Loans
   I       Less than 2.00x                               0.75%             1.75%
           Greater than or equal to 2.00x and
   II      less than 2.50x                               1.00%             2.00%
           Greater than or equal to 2.50x and
  III      less than 3.00x                               1.25%             2.25%
           Greater than or equal to 3.00x and
   IV      less than 3.25x                               1.50%             2.50%
           Greater than or equal to 3.25x and
   V       less than 3.50x                               1.75%             2.75%
   VI      Greater than 3.50x                            2.00%             3.00%


Under the First Amended Credit Agreement, the principal of the Term Facility must be paid in quarterly installments on the last day of each fiscal quarter, in an amount equal to: • $2,475,000 per quarter beginning on the last day of the Company's first

fiscal quarter of 2019 through the last day of the Company's third fiscal

quarter in 2021;

$3,712,500 per quarter beginning on the last day of the Company's fourth

fiscal quarter in 2021 through the last day of the Company's third fiscal

quarter in 2022;

$4,950,000 per quarter beginning on the last day of the Company's fourth


    fiscal quarter in 2022 through the last day of the Company's second fiscal
    quarter in 2023, with the remaining principal amount due at maturity.


There are customary events of default under the First Amended Credit Agreement, including, among other things, events of default resulting from (i) failure to pay obligations when due under the First Amended Credit Agreement, (ii) insolvency of the Company or its material subsidiaries, (iii) defaults under other material debt, (iv) judgments against the Company or its subsidiaries, (v) failure to comply with certain financial maintenance covenants (as set forth in the First Amended Credit Agreement), or (vi) a change of control of the Company, in each case subject to limitations and exceptions as set forth in the First Amended Credit Agreement.

The First Amended Credit Agreement contains customary covenants and warranties including, among other things, an amended Total Net Leverage Ratio financial maintenance covenant which requires compliance as follows:


                                                                  Maximum Total
                           Period                               Net Leverage Ratio

September 13, 2018 through the second quarter of the 2019 fiscal year

                                                         4.00:1.00

Second quarter of the 2019 fiscal year through the fourth quarter of the 2021 fiscal year

                                     3.75:1.00
Fourth quarter of the 2021 fiscal year and thereafter               3.50:1.00



Second Amended Credit Agreement

On May 7, 2020, the Company entered into a second amendment which amended the First Amended Credit Agreement, dated as of September 13, 2018 (the "Second Amended Credit Agreement"). The Second Amended Credit Agreement provided $41.9 million in additional revolving commitments bringing the total revolving commitments to $141.9 million. The revolving commitments under the Second Amended Credit Agreement matures on September 13, 2023, which is the fifth anniversary of the effective date of the First Amended Credit Agreement. The interest rate pricing grid remained unchanged, but the LIBOR floor was amended from 0% to 0.75%. Third Amended Credit Agreement

On December 4, 2020, the Company executed a third amendment to the Credit Agreement, the First Amended Credit Agreement and the Second Amended Credit Agreement (the "Third Amended Credit Agreement" and collectively, the "Amended Credit Agreement"). The Third Amended Credit Agreement, among other things, provides for certain temporary amendments to the Credit Agreement from the third amendment effective date through and including the first date on which (a)(i) a compliance certificate is timely delivered with respect to a fiscal quarter ending on or after March 31, 2022 demonstrating compliance with certain financial performance covenants for such fiscal quarter (the "Limited Availability Period"), or (ii) the Borrower elects to terminate the Limited Availability Period; and (b) the absence of a default or event of default under the Amended Credit Agreement.




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Amendments to the financial performance covenants provide that during the Limited Availability Period, a higher maximum Total Net Leverage Ratio is permitted, and requires the Company to maintain liquidity (in the form of undrawn availability under the Revolving Credit Facility and unrestricted cash and cash equivalents) of at least $15.0 million. For the duration between the fiscal quarter ending December 31, 2020 and the fiscal quarter ending September 30, 2021 that falls within the Limited Availability Period, a quarterly minimum consolidated EBITDA covenant applies instead of a maximum Total Net Leverage Ratio.

The pricing grid in the First Amended Credit Agreement, which is based on the ratio of the Company's consolidated net debt to consolidated EBITDA, remains unchanged. However, during the Limited Availability Period, an additional margin of 0.50% applies.

During the Limited Availability Period, the Amended Credit Agreement requires that the Borrower prepay existing revolving loans and, if undrawn and unreimbursed letters of credit exceed $7.0 million, cash collateralize letters of credit if unrestricted cash and cash equivalents exceed $20.0 million, as determined on a semimonthly basis. Any issuance, amendment, renewal, or extension of credit during the Limited Availability Period may not cause unrestricted cash and cash equivalents to exceed $20.0 million, or cause the aggregate outstanding Revolving Credit Facility principal to exceed $100.0 million. The Third Amended Credit Agreement also implements a cap on permissible investments, restricted payments, certain payments of indebtedness and the fair market value of all assets subject to permitted dispositions during the Limited Availability Period.

For the duration of the Limited Availability Period, the Amended Credit Agreement sets forth additional monthly reporting requirements, and requires subordination agreements and intercreditor arrangements for certain other indebtedness and liens subject to administrative agent approval.

Short-Term and Long-Term Liquidity Requirements

Our ability to make principal and interest payments on borrowings under our credit facilities and our ability to fund planned capital expenditures will depend on our ability to generate cash in the future, which, to a certain extent, is subject to general economic, financial, competitive, regulatory and other conditions. During fiscal 2020, the novel coronavirus known as "COVID-19" spread throughout the world, resulting in a global pandemic. The pandemic materially impacted our fiscal 2020 results causing lower customer orders for both buses and parts, supply disruptions, higher rates of absenteeism among our hourly production workforce, and a temporary shutdown of manufacturing. The continuing development and fluidity of the pandemic precludes any prediction as to the ultimate severity of the adverse impacts on our business, financial condition, results of operations, and liquidity. A prolonged economic downturn resulting from the continuing pandemic would likely have a material adverse impact on our financial results. See PART I, Item 1A. "Risk Factors", of this Annual Report for a discussion of the material risks we believe we face particularly related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The pandemic could cause a severe contraction in our profits and/or liquidity which could lead to issues complying with our Credit Facility covenants. Our primary financial covenants are (i) for fiscal 2021, minimum consolidated EBITDA, an adjusted EBITDA metric that could differ from Adjusted EBITDA appearing in the Company's periodic filings on Form 10-K or Form 10-Q as the adjustments to the calculations are not uniform, at the end of each fiscal quarter for the consecutive four fiscal quarter period most recently then ending; b) for fiscal 2021 and the first two quarters of fiscal 2022, minimum liquidity at the end of each month, and (iii) beginning in fiscal 2022 and thereafter, Total Net Leverage Ratio, defined as the ratio of (a) consolidated net debt to (b) consolidated EBITDA. We may need to seek additional covenant relief or even refinance the debt to a "covenant light" or "no covenant" structure. We cannot assure our investors that we would be successful in amending or refinancing our existing debt. An amendment or refinancing of our existing debt could lead to higher interest rates and possible up front expenses than included in our historical financial statements.

On March 27, 2020 the President of the United States signed the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act ("CARES Act") into law. The CARES Act, among other things, includes provisions related to the deferment of employer-side social security payments (the Employer Payroll Tax Payment Deferral Provision). We have elected to defer these payments that would otherwise be due and payable through December 31, 2020. A 50% minimum payment of the deferred amount is due on December 31, 2021 with the remainder due by December 31, 2022. We estimate between $4.0 and $6.0 million in payments could be delayed. We also have and expect to defer contributions to our defined benefit pension plan of approximately $3.2 million for fiscal 2020. The delayed contribution payments are due on January 4, 2021.




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Seasonality

Historically, our business has been highly seasonal with school districts buying their new schools buses so that they will be available for use on the first day of the school year, typically in mid-August to early September. This has resulted in our third and fourth fiscal quarters becoming our two busiest quarters, the latter ending on the Saturday closest to September 30. Our quarterly results of operations, cash flows, and liquidity have been and are likely to be impacted by the seasonal patterns. Working capital has historically been a significant use of cash during the first fiscal quarter and a significant source of cash generation in the fourth fiscal quarter with planned shutdowns during our first fiscal quarter. With the COVID-19 pandemic impact on school systems and the uncertainty surrounding in-person schooling schedules and duration, seasonality and working capital trends have become unpredictable. Seasonality and variations from historical seasonality have impacted the comparison of working capital and liquidity results between fiscal periods.

Cash Flows

The following table sets forth general information derived from our statement of cash flows for the fiscal years presented: (in thousands)

                                  2020         2019         2018

Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of year $ 70,959 $ 60,260 $ 62,616 Total cash provided by operating activities 3,459 55,706 48,353 Total cash used in investing activities (18,803 ) (35,467 ) (32,104 ) Total cash used in financing activities (11,108 ) (9,540 ) (18,605 ) Change in cash and cash equivalents

           (26,452 )     10,699       (2,356 )

Cash and cash equivalents, end of year $ 44,507 $ 70,959 $ 60,260

Total cash provided by operating activities

Cash flows provided by operating activities totaled $3.5 million for the fiscal year ended 2020, as compared with $55.7 million of cash flows provided by operating activities for the fiscal year ended 2019. The primary drivers of the $52.2 million decrease were the following:

• A year over year reduction of $12.1 million in net income.

• The effect of net changes in operating assets and liabilities negatively


       impacted 2020 operating cash flow by $35.0 million compared to 2019. The
       primary drivers in this category were the unfavorable changes in accounts
       payable and accrued expenses of $75.7 million as well as accounts
       receivable of $10.6 million, which were partially offset by improvements
       in inventory level changes of $43.8 million and other assets of $9.7
       million.


• The impact of non-cash items (net source of cash) were $5.1 million higher


       in fiscal 2019 compared to fiscal 2020. Non-cash items impact net income,
       but do not have direct cash outflows associated with them. The significant
       differences were the impact of higher amounts of deferred taxes of $6.6
       million, share-based compensation of $0.1 million, and pension
       amortization expense of $1.0 million in fiscal 2019 compared to fiscal
       2020. These were partially offset by an increase in depreciation and
       amortization expense in fiscal 2020 of $4.0 million.


Cash flows provided by operating activities totaled $55.7 million for the fiscal year ended 2019, as compared with $48.4 million of cash flows provided by operating activities for the fiscal year ended 2018. The primary drivers of the $7.4 million increase were the following:



•      Changes in pension and accrued expenses provided $24.0 million in
       incremental cash compared to the prior year. In fiscal 2019, the pension
       liability increased by $24.5 million (source of cash) compared to fiscal
       2018. In fiscal 2018, the pension liability decreased by $11.3 million
       (use of cash). The release of $7.6 million in fiscal 2018 for uncertain
       tax positions lowered the accrued expense balance (use of cash).



•      Non-cash items (source of cash) were $5.4 million higher compared to the
       fiscal year ended 2018. Non-cash items impact net income, but do not have
       direct cash outflows associated with them. The significant drivers in
       fiscal 2019 were non-cash interest expense from our interest rate collar,
       an increase in share-based compensation expense, and an increase in
       depreciation expense which totaled $6.0 million.


The above increases were partially offset by the following that decreased operating cash flows compared to the prior year:



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•      Working capital, consisting of accounts receivable, inventory, and
       accounts payable changes, negatively impacted fiscal 2019 versus the prior
       year by $8.6 million, as we had a larger inventory balance in fiscal 2019
       (use of cash), which was partially offset by a higher accounts payable
       balance and lower accounts receivable balance (both sources of cash).



•      The cash flow difference due to changes in other assets was a $4.7
       million decrease (source of cash) from fiscal 2018 to fiscal 2019, but
       a $2.8 million increase (use of cash) from fiscal 2017 to fiscal 2018. The
       combined changes resulted in $7.4 million decrease in fiscal 2019 from the
       prior year. The primary driver of the change was a $3.8 million federal
       income tax receivable recorded in fiscal 2019 that was not recorded in
       fiscal 2018.



•      Net income was lower by $6.5 million in fiscal 2019 compared to the prior
       year.


Total cash used in investing activities

Cash flows used in investing activities totaled $18.8 million for the fiscal year ended 2020, as compared with $35.5 million of cash flows used in investing activities for the fiscal year ended 2019. The $16.7 million decrease in cash used was primarily due to decreased spending on manufacturing assets associated with our new paint facility in fiscal 2020 as compared to fiscal 2019.

Cash flows used in investing activities totaled $35.5 million for the fiscal year ended 2019, as compared with $32.1 million of cash flows used in investing activities for the fiscal year ended 2018. The $3.4 million increase in cash used was primarily due to increased spending on manufacturing assets associated with our paint facility.

Total cash used in financing activities

Cash used in financing activities totaled $11.1 million for the fiscal year ended 2020, as compared with $9.5 million in cash used in financing activities for the fiscal year ended 2019. In fiscal 2020 we used more cash compared to the prior year on finance leases totaling $0.8 million million, debt issuance costs totaling $0.9 million, and payments of employee taxes for share-based compensation activity totaling $2.9 million. An increased source of cash, which partially offset cash use, was $2.7 million more in cash received for warrant exercises compared to the prior year. All of our existing warrants are now expired or exercised so this component of cash from financing activities is not expected to repeat in future years.

Cash used in financing activities totaled $9.5 million for the fiscal year ended 2019, as compared with $18.6 million in cash used in financing activities for the fiscal year ended 2018. The $9.1 million decrease in cash used was mainly attributed to a decrease of $26.6 million in cash spent on share repurchases under share repurchase programs, a $1.9 million decrease in cash dividends paid on preferred stock, and a $2.1 million decrease in debt principal payments. The decreases in cash used were partially offset by an increase of $2.0 million paid for debt issuance costs and a $1.6 million increase in cash taxes paid for employee taxes on vested restricted stock and stock option exercises.

In fiscal 2019, the Company received $50.0 million in borrowings under the term loan; however, the net impact on cash was not significant as the proceeds from the borrowings were used to fund a tender offer to purchase 1,782,568 shares of our common stock and 364 shares of our preferred stock at a purchase price totaling $50.4 million (which includes fees and expenses related to the tender offer).

Free cash flow

Management believes the non-GAAP measurement of free cash flow, defined as net cash provided by continuing operations less cash paid for fixed assets, fairly represents the Company's ability to generate surplus cash that could fund activities not in the ordinary course of business. See "Key Measures We Use to Evaluate Our Performance". The following table sets forth the calculation of free cash flow for the fiscal years presented: (in thousands)

                                       2020           2019           2018
Total cash provided by operating activities      $    3,459     $   55,706     $   48,353
Cash paid for fixed assets and acquired
intangible assets                                   (18,968 )      (35,514 )      (32,118 )
Free cash flow                                   $  (15,509 )   $   20,192     $   16,235

Free cash flow for the fiscal year ended 2020 was $35.7 million lower than free cash flow for the fiscal year ended 2019, primarily due to a $52.2 million decrease in cash provided by operating activities as discussed above. This was partially offset by a reduction of $16.5 million in cash paid for manufacturing assets as we limited capital expenditures in fiscal 2020 and had significant capital expenditures related to our new paint facility in fiscal 2019 that did not recur.



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Free cash flow for the fiscal year ended 2019 was $4.0 million higher than free cash flow for the fiscal year ended 2018, primarily due to a $7.4 million increase from cash provided by operating activities as discussed above, partially offset by an increase of $3.4 million in cash paid for manufacturing assets.

Off-Balance Sheet arrangements

We had outstanding letters of credit totaling $6.9 million at October 3, 2020, the majority of which secure our self-insured workers compensation program, the collateral for which is regulated by the State of Georgia.

We had a $3.0 million guarantee outstanding at October 3, 2020 which relates to a guarantee of indebtedness for a term loan with a remaining maturity up to 2.3 years. The $3.0 million represents the estimated maximum amount we would be required to pay upon default of all guaranteed indebtedness, and we believe the likelihood of required performance to be remote.

Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates

The preparation of financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("U.S. GAAP") requires management to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities at the date of the financial statements and the reported amounts of revenues and expenses during the reporting period. Blue Bird evaluates its estimates on an ongoing basis, based on historical experience and on various other assumptions that are believed to be reasonable under the circumstances. Application of these accounting policies involves the exercise of judgment and use of assumptions as to future uncertainties and, as a result, actual results could differ from these estimates.

Use of Estimates and Assumptions

The preparation of financial statements in accordance with U.S. GAAP requires management to make estimates and assumptions. At the date of the financial statements, these estimates and assumptions affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities and disclosures of contingent assets and liabilities, and during the reporting period, these estimates and assumptions affect the reported amounts of revenues and expenses. For example, significant management judgments are required in determining excess, obsolete, or unsalable inventory, allowance for doubtful accounts, potential impairment of long-lived assets, goodwill and intangibles, the accounting for self-insurance reserves, warranty reserves, pension obligations, income taxes, environmental liabilities and contingencies. Future events and their effects cannot be predicted with certainty, and, accordingly, the Company's accounting estimates require the exercise of judgment. The accounting estimates used in the preparation of the Company's consolidated financial statements may change as new events occur, as more experience is acquired, as additional information is obtained and as the Company's operating environment changes. The Company evaluates and updates its assumptions and estimates on an ongoing basis and may employ outside experts to assist in the Company's evaluations. Actual results could differ from the estimates that the Company has used.

Revenue Recognition

The Company records revenue, net of tax, when the following five steps have been completed:

1. Identification of the contract(s) with a customer;

2. Identification of the performance obligation(s) in the contract;

3. Determination of the transaction price;




4.     Allocation of the transaction price to the performance obligations in the
       contract; and

5. Recognition of revenue, when, or as, we satisfy performance obligations.

The Company records revenue when performance obligations are satisfied by transferring control of a promised good or service to the customer. The Company evaluates the transfer of control primarily from the customer's perspective where the customer has the ability to direct the use of, and obtain substantially all of the remaining benefits from, that good or service.




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Our product revenue includes sales of buses and bus parts, each of which are generally recognized as revenue at a point in time, once all conditions for revenue recognition have been met, as they represent our performance obligations in a sale. For buses, control is generally transferred and the customer has the ability to direct the use of and obtain substantially all of the remaining benefits of the product when the product is delivered or when the product has been completed, is ready for delivery, has been paid for, its title has transferred and it is awaiting pickup by the customer. For certain bus sale transactions, we may provide incentives including payment of a limited amount of future interest charges our customers may incur related to their purchase and financing of the bus with third party financing companies. We reduce revenue at the recording date by the full amount of potential future interest we may be obligated to pay, which is an application of the "most likely amount" method. For parts sales, control is generally transferred when the customer has the ability to direct the use of and obtain substantially all of the remaining benefits of the products, which generally coincides with the point in time when the customer has assumed risk of loss and title has passed for the goods sold.

The Company sells extended warranties related to its products. Revenue related to these contracts is recognized based on the stand-alone selling price of the arrangement, on a straight-line basis over the contract period, and costs thereunder are expensed as incurred.

The Company includes shipping and handling revenues, which are costs billed to customers, in net sales on the Consolidated Statements of Operations. The related costs incurred by the Company are included in cost of goods sold on the Consolidated Statements of Operations.

Self-Insurance

The Company is self-insured for the majority of its workers' compensation and medical claims. The expected ultimate cost for claims incurred as of the balance sheet date is not discounted and is recognized as a liability. Self-insurance losses for claims filed and claims incurred but not reported are accrued based upon estimates of the aggregate liability for uninsured claims using loss development factors and actuarial assumptions followed in the insurance industry and historical loss development experience. At October 3, 2020 and September 28, 2019, reserves totaled approximately $5.0 million and $4.7 million, respectively.

Inventories

The Company values inventories at the lower of cost or net realizable value. The Company uses a standard costing methodology, which approximates cost on a first-in, first-out ("FIFO") basis. The Company reviews the standard costs of raw materials, work-in-process and finished goods inventory on a periodic basis to ensure that its inventories approximate current actual costs. Manufacturing cost includes raw materials, direct labor and manufacturing overhead. Obsolete inventory amounts are based on historical usage and assumptions about future demand.

Goodwill and Intangible Assets

Goodwill represents the excess of the purchase price of acquired businesses over the fair value of the assets acquired less liabilities assumed in connection with such acquisition. In accordance with the provisions of Accounting Standards Codification ("ASC") 350, Intangibles-Goodwill and Other ("ASC 350"), goodwill and intangible assets with indefinite useful lives acquired in an acquisition are not amortized, but instead are tested for impairment at least annually or more frequently should an event occur or circumstances indicate that the carrying amount may be impaired. Such events or circumstances may be a significant change in business climate, economic and industry trends, legal factors, negative operating performance indicators, significant competition, changes in strategy or disposition of a reporting unit or a portion thereof. Although management believes the assumptions used in the determination of the value of the enterprise are reasonable, no assurance can be given that these assumptions will be achieved. As a result, impairment charges may occur when goodwill is tested for impairment in the future.

We have two reporting units for which we test goodwill for impairment: Bus and Parts. In the evaluation of goodwill for impairment, we have the option to perform a qualitative assessment to determine whether further impairment testing is necessary or to perform a quantitative assessment by comparing the fair value of a reporting unit to its carrying amount, including goodwill. Under the qualitative assessment, an entity is not required to calculate the fair value of a reporting unit unless the entity determines that it is more likely than not that its fair value is less than its carrying amount. If under the quantitative assessment the fair value of a reporting unit is less than its carrying amount, then the amount of the impairment loss, if any, must be measured under step two of the impairment analysis. In step two of the analysis, we would record an impairment loss equal to the excess of the carrying value of the reporting unit's goodwill over its implied fair value should such a circumstance arise.

Fair value of the reporting units is estimated primarily using the income approach, which incorporates the use of discounted cash flow ("DCF") analysis. A number of significant assumptions and estimates are involved in the application of the DCF model to forecast operating cash flows, including markets and market shares, sales volumes and prices, costs to produce, tax rates, capital spending, discount rate and working capital changes. The cash flow forecasts are based on approved strategic operating plans.




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During the fourth quarter of each fiscal year presented, we performed our annual impairment assessment of goodwill which did not indicate that an impairment existed.

In the evaluation of indefinite lived assets for impairment, we have the option to perform a qualitative assessment to determine whether further impairment testing is necessary, or to perform a quantitative assessment by comparing the fair value of an asset to its carrying amount. The Company's intangible asset with an indefinite useful life is the Blue Bird trade-name. Under the qualitative assessment, an entity is not required to calculate the fair value of the asset unless the entity determines that it is more likely than not that its fair value is less than its carrying amount. If a qualitative assessment is not performed or if a quantitative assessment is otherwise required, then the entity compares the fair value of an asset to its carrying amount and the amount of the impairment loss, if any, is the difference between fair value and carrying value. The fair value of our trade name is derived by using the relief from royalty method, which discounts the estimated cash savings we realize by owning the name instead of otherwise having to license or lease it.

During the fourth quarter of each fiscal year presented, we performed our annual impairment assessment of our trade name which did not indicate that an impairment existed.

Our intangible assets with definite useful lives include customer relationships and engineering designs, which are amortized over their estimated useful lives of 2, 7, or 20 years using the straight-line method. These assets are tested for impairment whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate the carrying amount of the assets may not be recoverable. No impairments have been recorded.

Pensions

We have pension benefit costs and obligations, which are developed from actuarial valuations. Actuarial assumptions attempt to anticipate future events and are used in calculating the expense and liability relating to our plan. These factors include assumptions we make about interest rates and expected investment return on plan assets. In addition, our actuarial consultants also use subjective factors such as mortality rates to develop our valuations. We review and update these assumptions on an annual basis at the beginning of each fiscal year. We are required to consider current market conditions, including changes in interest rates, in making these assumptions. Effective January 1, 2006, the benefit plan was frozen to all participants. No accrual of future benefits is earned or calculated beyond this date. Accordingly, our obligation estimate is based on benefits earned at that time discounted using an estimate of the single equivalent discount rate determined by matching the plan's future expected cash flows to spot rates from a yield curve comprised of high quality corporate bond rates of various durations. The expected long-term rate of return on plan assets reflects the average rate of earnings expected on the funds invested, or to be invested, to provide for the pension benefit obligation. In estimating that rate, appropriate consideration is given to the returns being earned by the plan assets in the fund and rates of return expected to be available for reinvestment and a building block method and we consider asset allocations, input from an external pension investment adviser, and risks and other factors adjusted for our specific investment strategy. The focus is on long-term trends and provides for the consideration of recent plan performance.

The actuarial assumptions that we use may differ materially from actual results due to changing market and economic conditions as well as longer or shorter life spans of participants. These differences may result in a significant impact to the measurement of our pension benefit obligations, and to the amount of pension benefits expense we may record. For example, at October 3, 2020, a one-half percent increase in the discount rate would reduce the projected benefit obligation of our pension plans by approximately $10.2 million, while a one-half percent decrease in the discount rate would increase the projected benefit obligation of our pension plans by approximately $11.7 million.

Product Warranty Costs

The Company's products are generally warranted against defects in material and workmanship for a period of one to five years. A provision for estimated warranty costs is recorded at the time a unit is sold. The methodology to determine the warranty reserve calculates the average expected warranty claims using warranty claims by body type, by month, over the life of the bus, which is then multiplied by remaining months under warranty, by warranty type. Management believes the methodology provides an accurate reserve estimate. Actual claims incurred could differ from the original estimates, requiring future adjustments.

The Company also sells extended warranties related to its products. Revenue related to these contracts is recognized on a straight-line basis over the contract period and costs thereunder are expensed as incurred. All warranty expenses are recorded in cost of goods sold on the Consolidated Statements of Operations. The current methodology to determine short-term extended warranty income reserve is based on twelve months of the remaining warranty value for each effective extended warranty at the balance sheet date.




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Income Taxes

The Company accounts for income taxes in accordance with ASC 740, Income Taxes ("ASC 740"), which requires an asset and liability approach to financial accounting and reporting for income taxes. Under this approach, deferred income taxes represent the expected future tax consequences of temporary differences between the financial statement and tax basis of assets and liabilities. The Company evaluates its ability, based on the weight of evidence available, to realize future tax benefits from deferred tax assets and establishes a valuation allowance to reduce a deferred tax asset to a level which, more likely than not, will be realized in future years.

The Company recognizes uncertain tax positions based on a cumulative probability assessment if it is more likely than not that the tax position will be sustained upon examination by an appropriate tax authority with full knowledge of all information. Recognized income tax positions are measured at the largest amount that is greater than 50% likely of being realized. Amounts recorded for uncertain tax positions are periodically assessed, including the evaluation of new facts and circumstances, to ensure sustainability of the positions. The Company records interest and penalties related to unrecognized tax benefits in income tax expense.

Recent Accounting Pronouncements

A discussion of recently issued accounting standards applicable to the Company is described in Note 2, Summary of Significant Accounting Policies and Recently Issued Accounting Standards, in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements contained elsewhere in this Report, and we incorporate such discussion by reference herein.

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