(Repeats for Asia morning readership. No change to text.)
SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, Nov 24 (Reuters) - A spurt of missed
debt repayments by three Chinese state-owned firms - a coal
miner, a chipmaker and an automobile company - has shaken local
markets and heightened speculation that a campaign to wean the
economy off heavy credit is back.
The defaults have angered investors, who say their faith in
the firms' top-notch ratings, seemingly sound finances and
implicit state backing has been violated.
While the notable lack of state support for struggling
state-owned enterprises (SOEs) suggests Beijing now has more
confidence in the economy's ability to absorb such failures, it
has caught many bondholders off guard.
A default late last month by Huachen Automotive Group
Holdings Co, the parent of German automaker BMW's
Chinese joint venture partner, exemplified opaque risks,
underdeveloped pricing mechanisms and investor naivety in
China's corporate bond market.
"If the company had told investors it was in great trouble,
I wouldn't have bought and held the bonds," said Shanghai-based
hedge fund manager Vincent Jin, who bought Huachen bonds early
this year.
Huachen boasted a AAA issuer rating when it launched its 1
billion yuan ($151.93 million) three-year, privately placed bond
in October 2017. It comes from one of China's poorer provinces,
Liaoning, but as recently as April told bondholders it had
adequate cash, lots of land and state backing.
Creditors were therefore stunned when Huachen not only
defaulted but was also dragged to court by a creditor for
bankruptcy restructuring.
Moreover, one month before its bond delinquency, Huachen
transferred its prize 30% stake in Hong Kong-listed Brilliance
China Automotive Holdings Ltd to a subsidiary, leaving
bondholders with no access to those assets.
Jin missed the warning signs in Huachen's books. At the end
of 2019, the company had 144.8 billion yuan in liabilities -
mostly short-term - three times shareholders' interest. With the
exception of BMW, all of Huachen's auto brands were bleeding
cash.
As rumours swirled of Huachen's problems, Jin didn't cut his
losses, assuming the government wouldn't let a heavyweight SOE
fail.
BACK TO NORMAL
For some, such defaults suggest credit markets are merely
picking up where they left off last year, before COVID-19
paralysed the economy and as the Communist Party waged a war on
indebtedness and unproductive investment.
"It's really more of the messaging than anything else, and
unless there's some threat to the financial or economic
stability of China then the central government is happy to let
the state firms go under," said Andrew Collier, managing
director, Orient Capital Research. "Clearly the central
government does not want to step in and is now basically telling
local governments that they're on their own."
For investors, that leaves big questions about SOEs'
changing risk profile and their relationship with the state.
In the central province of Henan, Yongcheng Coal &
Electricity Holding Group Co, a AAA-rated state-owned mine
operator, defaulted on Nov. 10, only three weeks after issuing
fresh debt and a week after moving its stake in Zhongyuan Bank
to two government subsidiaries.
SOE defaults are not new, but blocking bondholders from
liquid assets is, said Rocky Fan, economist at Sealand
Securities.
"It's like telling investors: I don't want to pay back your
money," Fan said.
"If that's the case, there's no way you can assess a
company's risk, or price a bond, based on its fundamentals."
Yongcheng's 270-day commercial paper bore a 4.39% coupon,
well above the 1.84% risk-free rate on government debt at the
time of issue, but "still low considering the risks", said a
director at a local securities firm.
In a separate instance, Tsinghua Unigroup, a chipmaker
backed by Beijing's prestigious Tsinghua University, defaulted
on a three-year, 1.3 billion yuan bond on Nov. 15, shortly after
a rating agency warned of debt risks at the company.
The defaults sent other bonds issued by Yongcheng, Huachen
and Tsinghua Unigroup to about a tenth of their face value.
"For too long (risk) has been mispriced. This is what
misallocation of capital looks like," said Fraser Howie, an
independent analyst and co-author of the book "Red Capitalism".
"You've been pouring money into companies that simply don't
deserve it."
QUICKSAND
More than 90% of Chinese rated issuers have stamps of AA or
higher. That absence of differentiation has complicated efforts
to price risk.
"Most sophisticated investors understand that there is a
major difference between lending to a state-owned enterprise,
and lending to the state," said Michel Lowy, founder and chief
executive officer of SC Lowy, a global banking and asset
management group focused on distressed and high-yield debt.
"(This) is a quick reminder of the difference, and of the
fact that China does not have the intention to bail out every
state-owned enterprise that has made wrong choices."
Huachen's bondholders say the automaker's sudden default
could have been complicated by local politics.
Two months before Huachen's default, Liu Ning, former
governor of Qinghai province, was appointed Liaoning's governor,
while Zhang Guoqing, former mayor of Tianjin, became provincial
Party Secretary. Both leaders implemented significant
restructuring in their previous jurisdictions, which were both
deeply indebted.
It's treacherous terrain and one that most foreign
investors, even those that thrive on risk, avoid.
"For us, as fundamental investors, it's not a market to
play," said Tiansi Wang, a senior credit analyst at Robeco in
Hong Kong. She said the defaults are nevertheless a good sign.
"It's not healthy if nobody ever takes the pain - then you
don't have a proper risk pricing environment."
($1 = 6.5818 Chinese yuan)
(Reporting by Andrew Galbraith and Samuel Shen in Shanghai and
Tom Westbrook in Singapore; additional reporting by Rong Ma in
Beijing
Editing by Vidya Ranganathan and Sam Holmes)