Brookfield Renewable
INVESTOR DAY
SEPTEMBER 24, 2020
Agenda
Looking Ahead | 3 |
Sachin Shah, Chief Executive Officer | |
Our Long-Term Approach | 24 |
Connor Teskey, Chief Investment Officer | |
Financial Update | 41 |
Wyatt Hartley, Chief Financial Officer | |
Key Takeaways and Q&A | 56 |
Sachin Shah, Chief Executive Officer |
Looking Ahead
SACHIN SHAH
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
3
Decarbonization is a global objective
4
Carbon reduction is universal
There is still a long path to meeting carbon-free targets globally
NET-ZERO CARBON
32% | 28% | 38% | 37% | 19% | 28% |
California | New York | E.U. | U.K. | India | China |
Current Renewables Generation | Other Generation | 2050 Renewables Target | ||
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance | 5 |
Increasingly ambitious corporate targets
2025 | 2040 | |
Amazon, Wal-Mart, and Nike: | Amazon: net zero carbon emissions | |
100% renewable | General Motors: 100% renewable | |
2030 | 2050 | |
Microsoft: carbon negative | Microsoft: remove historical carbon emissions | |
H&M: 100% renewable | Johnson & Johnson: 100% renewable | |
6
Wind and solar are the cheapest sources of bulk generation
$/MWh
LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
PV Solar | Onshore Wind | CCGT | |||||||||
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance | 7 |
How has the recession impacted these trends?
8
U.S. electricity generation
is down 5%
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). | 9 |
Over the same period, fossil fuel generation
is down 10%
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). | 10 |
Renewable generation
is up 14%
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). | 11 |
Investors signed up to Principles for Responsible Investment
USD) | $100 | ||||||||||||||
$80 | 20%+ | ||||||||||||||
AUM (TRILLIONS | |||||||||||||||
$60 | |||||||||||||||
$40 | |||||||||||||||
$20 | |||||||||||||||
$- | |||||||||||||||
2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
Source: UNPRI; Scotiabank GBM. | 12 |
Significant capital will be invested into renewables
$10T |
$5T |
$2T |
INVESTMENT IN | PROJECTED RANGE OF INVESTMENT OVER THE |
THE LAST | NEXT DECADE |
5 YEARS |
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
Our leading and differentiated business
is very well positioned…
14
…with over $50 billion of operating renewables
15
Growing distributions
6% | $1.74 |
CAGR | |
$0.57 | |
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 |
Note: distribution amounts have been adjusted for the special distribution of BEPC shares effective July 30, 2020. | 16 |
Strong balance sheet
BBB+ | $3.4B | |||||
Investment grade | Available | |||||
balance sheet | liquidity | |||||
17
Best-in-class carbon avoidance
6 Million | Nearly All | 5 Million | ||||||||
Vehicles off the | London's | Homes' annual | ||||||||
road annually | annual | electricity use | ||||||||
generation | ||||||||||
Note: figures above equivalent to BEP's operating portfolio, which avoids 28 million tons of CO2 annually. | 18 |
A simple, repeatable strategy
19
Invest on a value basis
Operational turnarounds
Carve-out transactions
Development
Restructuring Capital solutions
20
Use our operating expertise to help businesses thrive
Sustainability Additionality Transition
21
Our approach
1
Invest on a value basis
3
Monetize
mature assets
12-15% Returns Long-term Impact
2
Sustain
Add
Transition
22
20+ year track record
BBB | BBB+ | |
18%
BEP Total Return
Total Return
S&P 500 Index: 6%
Total Return | |
S&P 500 ESG Index: 11% | |
1999 | 2020 |
BEP | S&P 500 S&P 500 ESG |
1. | Source: Bloomberg | |
2. | Chart indicates share price performance including reinvestment of dividends. | |
23 | ||
3. | BEP and S&P 500 Index returns since 11/30/1999. S&P 500 ESG Index returns since its inception on 4/30/2010. | |
Our Long-Term Approach
CONNOR TESKEY
CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER
24
Over the next five years…
Consistent Expanded Growing
Approach Capabilities Market
…we are increasing our targeted annual equity
deployment to $800M-1B
25
Doing this through a consistent and balanced approach
CAPITAL ALLOCATION | OPERATIONAL APPROACH | |
• | Deep value | • | Long-term focus |
• | Contrarian | • | Partnership approach |
• Complex or large-scale transactions | • | ESG-oriented | |
• | Perpetual improvement | ||
26
Value and growth through decarbonization
Sustainability Additionality Transition
27
Sustainability | Preserve and enhance existing renewable assets
Sustainability Additionality Transition
Improved cash flows and de-risked investments through
long-term sustainable operating principles
28
Sustainability | A differentiated approach to ownership
Operating expertise | Global standards |
Ongoing investment | Social focus |
Strongly capitalized | Enhanced returns |
Stable sponsor |
29
Sustainability | Not in the community, but part of the community
Maintaining a social license to operate is central to preserving capital, mitigating risk and creating long-term value
KIDWIND PROGRAM | 'NAMGIS FIRST NATIONS | LA GUAJIRA WIND PROJECT |
IRELAND | PARTNERSHIP | COLOMBIA |
CANADA |
30
Additionality | Accretively growing our assets
Sustainability Additionality Transition
Expanding and delivering our 18,000 MW development pipeline
at premium returns
31
Additionality | Enhancing our development capabilities
2015
3 GW
2020
18 GW
North America | Latam | Asia | Europe | |||
Local development teams
across the globe
Delivery from concept to commercialization
Flexible commercial strategy focused on relationships
Ability to manage large-scaleprojects
Advantage from global procurement platform
32
Additionality | Strong track record of development activities
~$4B
invested
8% 17%
28% 2 GW
47%
2 GW | 50M |
developed | |
trees planted | |
15-20% returns | |
16%
4%
2 GW 46%
34%
Solar | Wind | Hydro | Storage & Other | North America | Latam | Asia | Europe | ||||||||
Note: 50 million trees planted is equivalent to 2 GW developed, which avoids approximately 3 million tons of CO2 annually. | 33 |
Additionality | Ramped up our solar development activities
20152020
Utility scale | 0 GW | 9 GW |
C&I rooftop | 0 GW | 1 GW |
Total solar pipeline | 0 GW | 10 GW |
15-20%+
returns
34
Additionality | Best-in-class carbon avoidance
5 Million | 100% | 100% | ||||||||
Vehicles off the | Paris' annual | CO2 generated by | ||||||||
road annually | generation | Apple or half of BP | ||||||||
Note: figures above equivalent to BEP's development pipeline, which would avoid 23 million tons of CO2 annually. | 35 |
Transition | Accelerate energy transition initiatives
Sustainability Additionality Transition
Provide capital and solutions to drive
carbon reduction initiatives
36
Transition | Investing in key sectors and businesses
Distributed | TransAlta | New Asset | ||
Generation | Investment | Classes | ||
Local businesses | Corporations seeking | Green hydrogen | ||
looking to | to transition | and green | ||
decarbonize | businesses | data centers | ||
37
Transition | Global partners in decarbonization
38
We are the partner of choice to support
governments and businesses in achieving their
decarbonization goals
39
In summary
1
Invest on a value basis
3
Monetize
mature assets
12-15% Returns Long-term Impact
2
Sustain
Add
Transition
40
Financial Update
WYATT HARTLEY
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER
41
Our business is well positioned to continue to
deliver solid growth through all economic cycles
42
Underpinned by a strong balance sheet with ample liquidity
BBB+ | ~85% | 14-year | ||||||||
INVESTMENT | NON-RECOURSE | AVERAGE | ||||||||
GRADE | DEBT | CORPORATE DEBT | ||||||||
DURATION | ||||||||||
~$3.4 billion of available liquidity
43
Highly resilient cash flows
CONTRACTED | 15-year average PPA term |
DE-RISKED | No single market >10% |
DIVERSIFIED | 600+ investment-grade counterparties |
LIMITED FX EXPOSURE | 75% fully hedged |
44
A strong track record of FFO per-unit growth
10+% | ||||
CAGR | ||||
2010 | 2020F | |||
$0.72 FFO | ~$2.00+ FFO | |||
per unit | per unit | |||
Note: 2020 FFO per unit reflects the last twelve months and is pro forma the TERP transaction. | 45 |
Proven resilience through the current global shutdown
~98% | ~$1B | $2B+ | Executed | |||||||||||
ASSET | LIQUIDITY | CAPITAL | STRATEGIC | |||||||||||
AVAILABILITY | ADDED | DEPLOYED | MERGER | |||||||||||
46
Merger with TERP has many immediate benefits
Simplified ownership structure
Immediately cash accretive
Expands portfolio in North America and Western Europe
Strengthens contract profile
47
Access to flexible and diverse sources of funding
Asset-level | Preferred | Capital | ||||||||
up-financings | equity and | recycling | ||||||||
corporate debt | ||||||||||
Funding plan does not require common equity issuances
48
Leaders in sustainable finance
$200M | $1,300M | ||||
PREFERRED SECURITIES | CORPORATE | ||||
GREEN BONDS | |||||
>$4 | |||||
$2,500M | $50M | ||||
BILLION | |||||
PROJECT-LEVEL | SUSTAINABILITY- | ||||
GREEN BONDS | LINKED LOAN | ||||
49
Broadening our investor base
We completed the launch of BEPC, which has been well received by the market
Russell 2000/3000 | Increased float | |||||||||
Completed special | ||||||||||
distribution | and FTSE Global | through TERP | ||||||||
merger | ||||||||||
50
Growing development activities enhance the
visibility of organic cash flow growth
over the next five years
51
Target 6-11% FFO per-unit growth through operational levers
Embedded | Expected | Development | FFO Per-Unit | |||
Inflation | Margin | Pipeline | Growth | |||
Escalation | Expansion | Potential | ||||
1-2% | 2-4% | 3-5% | 6-11% | |||
52
Increased development activities secure growth
Development
Pipeline
3-5%
18,000 MW
SECURED
2% annual FFO per-unit growth
TO BE
DELIVERED
1-3% annual FFO per-unit growth
- 3,500 MW commissioned
- $90 million FFO annually
- Executing on under-construction and advanced-stage projects
- 3,500 MW additional development
- Up to $135 million FFO annually
- Delivering on up to 20% of our extensive global development pipeline
Note: megawatts are presented on a consolidated basis. Proportionate megawatts are 1,150 MW for secured growth and 1,700 MW for growth to be delivered. Assumes $0.8 | 53 |
billion deployed for additional development at target FFO yields of ~23% and average funding costs of 5% for $135 million FFO net to BEP. |
Enhanced visibility on cash flow growth
10%+
FFO PER-UNIT GROWTH
3.20 | ORGANIC GROWTH | ||||||
6-11% | 4-5% | ||||||
2.70 | 10%+ | 3-5% | |||||
CAGR | |||||||
2.20 | 2-4% | ||||||
1-2% | |||||||
1.70 | |||||||
1.20 | |||||||
0.70 | 2010 | 2020 | Inflation | Margin | Development | Acquisitions¹ | 2025 |
Escalation | Enhancement | Pipeline |
1. | $3.7 billion deployed between development and M&A investments at target FFO yields of 10% to 11% and average funding costs of 5%. | |
54 | ||
2. | Slide reflects FFO per-unit. | |
In summary
We offer a high-quality distribution
Investment-gradebalance sheet Resilient cash flows
Access to diverse sources of capital
Visibility on 10%+ FFO per-unit growth
55
Key Takeaways and Q&A
SACHIN SHAH
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
56
Key takeaways
As decarbonization accelerates, our global business is well positioned
We invest and operate with a long-term view
We remain focused on delivering total returns of 12-15%
Our strong financial profile enables us to pursue growth
57
Q&A
Notice to Recipients
All amounts are in U.S. dollars unless otherwise specified. Unless otherwise indicated, the statistical and financial data in this presentation is presented as of June 30, 2020, and on a consolidated basis.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD- LOOKING STATEMENTS
This presentation contains forward-looking statements and information, within the meaning of Canadian securities laws and "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended, Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, "safe harbor" provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and in any applicable Canadian securities regulations, concerning the business and operations of Brookfield Renewable. Forward-looking statements may include estimates, plans, expectations, opinions, forecasts, projections, guidance or other statements that are not statements of fact. Forward-looking statements in this presentation include statements regarding the quality of Brookfield Renewable's assets and the resiliency of the cash flow they will generate, Brookfield Renewable's anticipated financial performance and payout ratio, future commissioning of assets and expected returns from such assets, our target annual equity deployment, our target FFO per unit growth, contracted nature of our portfolio, technology diversification, acquisition opportunities, expected completion of acquisitions, financing and refinancing opportunities, Brookfield Renewable Corporation's ("BEPC") eligibility for index inclusion, BEPC's ability to attract new investors as well as the future performance and prospects of BEPC and Brookfield Renewable, the prospects and benefits of the combination of Brookfield Renewable and TerraForm Power, Inc. ("TERP"), including certain information regarding the combined company's expected cash flow profile and liquidity, future energy prices and demand for electricity, economic recovery, achieving long-term average generation, project development and capital expenditure costs, energy policies, economic growth, growth potential of the renewable asset class, the future growth prospects and distribution profile of Brookfield Renewable and Brookfield Renewable's access to capital. In some cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as "plans", "expects", "scheduled", "estimates", "intends", "anticipates", "believes", "potentially", "tends", "continue", "attempts", "likely", "primarily", "approximately", "endeavours", "pursues", "strives", "seeks", "targets", "believes", or variations of such words and phrases, or statements that certain actions, events or results "may", "could", "would", "should", "might" or "will" be taken, occur or be achieved. Although we believe that our anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements and information in this presentation are based upon reasonable assumptions and expectations, we cannot assure you that such expectations will prove to have been correct. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and information as such statements and information involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from anticipated future results, performance or achievement expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements and information.
Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated or implied by forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to changes to hydrology at our hydroelectric facilities, to wind conditions at our wind energy facilities,
to irradiance at our solar facilities or to weather generally, as a result of climate change or otherwise, at any of our facilities; volatility in supply and demand in the energy markets; our inability to re-negotiate or replace expiring PPAs on similar terms; increases in water rental costs (or similar fees) or changes to the regulation of water supply; advances in technology that impair or eliminate the competitive advantage of our projects; an increase in the amount of uncontracted generation in our portfolio; industry risks relating to the power markets in which we operate; the termination of, or a change to, the MRE balancing pool in Brazil; increased regulation of our operations; concessions and licenses expiring and not being renewed or replaced on similar terms; our real property rights for wind and solar renewable energy facilities being adversely affected by the rights of lienholders and leaseholders that are superior to those granted to us; increases in the cost of operating our plants; our failure to comply with conditions in, or our inability to maintain, governmental permits; equipment failures, including relating to wind turbines and solar panels; dam failures and the costs and potential liabilities associated with such failures; force majeure events; uninsurable losses and higher insurance premiums; adverse changes in currency exchange rates and our inability to effectively manage foreign currency exposure; availability and access to interconnection facilities and transmission systems; health, safety, security and environmental risks; energy marketing risks; disputes, governmental and regulatory investigations and litigation; counterparties to our contracts not fulfilling their obligations; the time and expense of enforcing contracts against non-performingcounter-parties and the uncertainty of success; our operations being affected by local communities; fraud, bribery, corruption, other illegal acts or inadequate or failed internal processes or systems; some of our acquisitions may be of distressed companies, which may subject us to increased risks, including the incurrence of legal or other expenses; our reliance on computerized business systems, which could expose us to cyber-attacks; newly developed technologies in which we invest not performing as anticipated; labor disruptions and economically unfavorable collective bargaining agreements; our inability to finance our operations due to the status of the capital markets; operating and financial restrictions imposed on us by our loan, debt and security agreements; changes to our credit ratings; our inability to identify sufficient investment opportunities and complete transactions; the growth of our portfolio and our inability to realize the expected benefits of our transactions or acquisitions, including the TERP acquisition and the special distribution of BEPC shares; our inability to develop greenfield projects or find new sites suitable for the development of greenfield projects; delays, cost overruns and other problems associated with the construction and operation of generating facilities and risks associated with the arrangements we enter into with communities and joint venture partners; Brookfield Asset Management's election not to source acquisition opportunities for us and our lack of access to all renewable power acquisitions that Brookfield Asset Management identifies, including by reason of conflicts of interest; we do not have control over all our operations or investments; political instability or changes in government policy; foreign laws or regulation to which we become subject as a result of future acquisitions in new markets; changes to government policies that provide incentives for renewable energy; a decline in the value of our investments in securities, including publicly traded securities of other companies; we are not subject to the same disclosure requirements as a U.S. domestic issuer; the separation of economic interest from control within our organizational structure; future sales and issuances of our LP Units, preferred limited partnership units or securities
exchangeable for LP Units, or the perception of such sales or issuances, could depress the trading price of the LP Units, preferred limited partnership units or securities exchangeable for LP Units; the incurrence of debt at multiple levels within our organizational structure; being deemed an "investment company" under the U.S. Investment Company Act of 1940; the effectiveness of our internal controls over financial reporting; our dependence on Brookfield Asset Management and Brookfield Asset Management's significant influence over us; the departure of some or all of Brookfield Asset Management's key professionals; changes in how Brookfield Asset Management elects to hold its ownership interests in Brookfield Renewable; Brookfield Asset Management acting in a way that is not in the best interests of Brookfield Renewable or its unitholders; and the severity, duration and spread of the COVID-19 outbreak, as well as the direct and indirect impacts that the virus may have.
We caution that the foregoing list of important factors that may affect future results is not exhaustive. The forward-looking statements represent our views as of the date of this presentation and should not be relied upon as representing our views as of any subsequent date. While we anticipate that subsequent events and developments may cause our views to change, we disclaim any obligation to update the forward-looking statements, other than as required by applicable law. For further information on these known and unknown risks, please see "Risk Factors" included in our Form 20-F and the other risks and factors that are described therein.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING USE OF NON-IFRS MEASURES | |
This presentation contains references to financial metrics that are not calculated | in |
accordance with, and do not have any standardized meaning prescribed | by, |
International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS"). We believe such non-IFRS measures including, but not limited to, funds from operations ("FFO") and FFO per unit, are useful supplemental measures that may assist investors and others in assessing our financial performance and the financial performance of our subsidiaries. As these non-IFRS measures are not generally accepted accounting measures under IFRS, references to FFO and FFO per unit, as examples, are therefore unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers and entities. These non- IFRS measures have limitations as analytical tools. They should not be considered as the sole measure of our performance and should not be considered in isolation from, or as a substitute for, analysis of our financial statements prepared in accordance with IFRS. For a reconciliation of FFO and FFO per Unit to the most directly comparable IFRS measure, please see "Financial Performance Review on Proportionate Information - Reconciliation of Non-IFRS Measures" included in our annual report on Form 20-F and "Part 4 - Financial Performance Review on Proportionate Information - Reconciliation of non-IFRS measures" in our management's discussion and analysis for the three and six months ended June 30, 2020.
References to Brookfield Renewable are to Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P. together with its subsidiary and operating entities, including BEPC, unless the context reflects otherwise.
59
Brookfield Renewable
INVESTOR DAY
SEPTEMBER 24, 2020
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Brookfield Renewable Partners LP published this content on 24 September 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 24 September 2020 16:09:02 UTC