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Market Closed -
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5-day change | 1st Jan Change | ||
| 152.26 CAD | +0.11% |
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+5.06% | +12.16% |
| Apr. 10 | Canadian National Railway Volume Data Seen Tracking Ahead of Estimates, BofA Says | MT |
| Apr. 10 | RBC on Canadian Rails' Q1 Carload, Performance Metrics | MT |
Projected Income Statement: Canadian National Railway Company
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales 1 | 14,477 | 17,107 | 16,828 | 17,046 | 17,304 | 17,816 | 18,658 | 19,677 |
| Change | - | 18.17% | -1.63% | 1.3% | 1.51% | 2.96% | 4.72% | 5.46% |
| EBITDA 1 | 7,220 | 8,591 | 8,414 | 8,217 | 8,525 | 8,769 | 9,325 | 9,958 |
| Change | - | 18.99% | -2.06% | -2.34% | 3.75% | 2.87% | 6.34% | 6.79% |
| EBIT 1 | 5,622 | 6,862 | 6,597 | 6,325 | 6,636 | 6,805 | 7,296 | 7,824 |
| Change | - | 22.06% | -3.86% | -4.12% | 4.92% | 2.55% | 7.22% | 7.23% |
| Interest Paid 1 | -610 | -548 | -722 | -891 | -913 | -964.7 | -997.3 | -975 |
| Earnings before Tax (EBT) 1 | 6,333 | 6,763 | 6,488 | 5,852 | 6,264 | 6,346 | 6,795 | 7,365 |
| Change | - | 6.79% | -4.07% | -9.8% | 7.04% | 1.31% | 7.07% | 8.39% |
| Net income 1 | 4,892 | 5,118 | 5,625 | 4,448 | 4,720 | 4,732 | 5,094 | 5,485 |
| Change | - | 4.62% | 9.91% | -20.92% | 6.12% | 0.25% | 7.66% | 7.66% |
| Announcement Date | 1/25/22 | 1/24/23 | 1/23/24 | 1/30/25 | 1/30/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Balance Sheet: Canadian National Railway Company
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Debt 1 | 11,647 | 15,101 | 17,998 | 20,505 | 21,172 | 22,325 | 22,865 | 22,763 |
| Change | - | 29.66% | 19.18% | 13.93% | 3.25% | 5.45% | 2.42% | -0.45% |
| Announcement Date | 1/25/22 | 1/24/23 | 1/23/24 | 1/30/25 | 1/30/26 | - | - | - |
Cash Flow Forecast: Canadian National Railway Company
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPEX 1 | 2,891 | 2,750 | 3,187 | 3,549 | 3,658 | 2,809 | 3,032 | 3,223 |
| Change | - | -4.88% | 15.89% | 11.36% | 3.07% | -23.2% | 7.94% | 6.27% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 | 4,080 | 3,917 | 3,778 | 3,150 | 3,391 | 4,087 | 4,424 | 4,207 |
| Change | - | -4% | -3.55% | -16.62% | 7.65% | 20.53% | 8.25% | -4.92% |
| Announcement Date | 1/25/22 | 1/24/23 | 1/23/24 | 1/30/25 | 1/30/26 | - | - | - |
Forecast Financial Ratios: Canadian National Railway Company
| Fiscal Period: December | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Profitability | ||||||||
| EBITDA Margin (%) | 49.87% | 50.22% | 50% | 48.2% | 49.27% | 49.22% | 49.98% | 50.61% |
| EBIT Margin (%) | 38.83% | 40.11% | 39.2% | 37.11% | 38.35% | 38.2% | 39.11% | 39.76% |
| EBT Margin (%) | 43.75% | 39.53% | 38.55% | 34.33% | 36.2% | 35.62% | 36.42% | 37.43% |
| Net margin (%) | 33.79% | 29.92% | 33.43% | 26.09% | 27.28% | 26.56% | 27.3% | 27.87% |
| FCF margin (%) | 28.18% | 22.9% | 22.45% | 18.48% | 19.6% | 22.94% | 23.71% | 21.38% |
| FCF / Net Income (%) | 83.4% | 76.53% | 67.16% | 70.82% | 71.84% | 86.38% | 86.85% | 76.7% |
Profitability | ||||||||
| ROA | 10.48% | 10.32% | 10.89% | 8.11% | 8.16% | 8.07% | 8.45% | 8.65% |
| ROE | 23.08% | 23.2% | 27.11% | 21.61% | 22.32% | 22.43% | 24.64% | 24.13% |
Financial Health | ||||||||
| Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) | 1.61x | 1.76x | 2.14x | 2.5x | 2.48x | 2.55x | 2.45x | 2.29x |
| Debt / Free cash flow | 2.85x | 3.86x | 4.76x | 6.51x | 6.24x | 5.46x | 5.17x | 5.41x |
Capital Intensity | ||||||||
| CAPEX / Current Assets (%) | 19.97% | 16.08% | 18.94% | 20.82% | 21.14% | 15.77% | 16.25% | 16.38% |
| CAPEX / EBITDA (%) | 40.04% | 32.01% | 37.88% | 43.19% | 42.91% | 32.04% | 32.52% | 32.36% |
| CAPEX / FCF (%) | 70.86% | 70.21% | 84.36% | 112.67% | 107.87% | 68.74% | 68.54% | 76.61% |
Items per share | ||||||||
| Cash flow per share 1 | 9.814 | 9.686 | 10.57 | 10.56 | 11.3 | 11.71 | 13.22 | - |
| Change | - | -1.3% | 9.1% | -0.09% | 7.05% | 3.59% | 12.95% | - |
| Dividend per Share 1 | 2.46 | 2.93 | 3.16 | 3.38 | 3.55 | 3.658 | 3.704 | 4.001 |
| Change | - | 19.11% | 7.85% | 6.96% | 5.03% | 3.03% | 1.28% | 8.01% |
| Book Value Per Share 1 | 32.45 | 31.87 | 30.59 | 33.53 | 35.17 | 34.95 | 36.09 | 40.11 |
| Change | - | -1.79% | -4.02% | 9.61% | 4.9% | -0.63% | 3.27% | 11.14% |
| EPS 1 | 6.89 | 7.44 | 8.53 | 7.01 | 7.57 | 7.883 | 8.748 | 9.497 |
| Change | - | 7.98% | 14.65% | -17.82% | 7.99% | 4.13% | 10.97% | 8.56% |
| Nbr of stocks (in thousands) | 706,300 | 676,000 | 645,695 | 629,500 | 615,500 | 610,781 | 610,781 | 610,781 |
| Announcement Date | 1/25/22 | 1/24/23 | 1/23/24 | 1/30/25 | 1/30/26 | - | - | - |
| 2026 * | 2027 * | |
|---|---|---|
| P/E ratio | 19.3x | 17.4x |
| PBR | 4.36x | 4.22x |
| EV / Sales | 6.47x | 6.21x |
| Yield | 2.4% | 2.43% |
EPS & Dividend
Y-o-Y evolution of P/E
Year-on-year evolution of the Yield
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Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise
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