CBRE Group, Inc.

CBRE

US12504L1098

Real Estate Services

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CBRE : Earnings Transcript FY 2024

Published on 02/13/2025 at 12:33 pm EST - Modified on 02/13/2025 at 12:34 pm EST

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CBRE GROUP, INC.

-3.09%

Corrected Transcript

13-Feb-2025

CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)

Q4 2024 Earnings Call

	Total Pages: 18
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CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2024 Earnings Call	13-Feb-2025

CORPORATE PARTICIPANTS

Chandni Luthra	Emma E. Giamartino
Executive Vice President and Head of Investor Relations and FP&A,	Chief Financial Officer, CBRE Group, Inc.
CBRE Group, Inc.
Robert E. Sulentic
Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer, CBRE Group, Inc.

.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

OTHER PARTICIPANTS

Anthony Paolone	Stephen Sheldon
Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC	Analyst, William Blair & Co. LLC
Michael A. Griffin	Steve Sakwa
Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.	Analyst, Evercore ISI
Julien Blouin	Alex Kramm
Analyst, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC	Analyst, UBS Securities LLC
Ronald Kamdem	Jade J. Rahmani
Analyst, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC	Analyst, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, Inc.

MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION SECTION

Operator: Greetings and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2024 CBRE Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Chandni Luthra. Thank you. You may begin.

Chandni Luthra

Executive Vice President and Head of Investor Relations and FP&A, CBRE Group, Inc.

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to CBRE fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. Earlier today we posted a presentation deck on our website that you can use to follow along with our prepared remarks and an Excel file that contains additional supplemental materials.

Today's presentation contains forward-looking statements, including without limitation statements concerning our business outlook, our business plans and capital allocation strategy, and our earnings and cash flow outlook.

Forward-looking statements are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results and trends to differ materially from those projected. For a full discussion of the risks and other factors that may impact these forward-looking statements, please refer to this morning's earnings release and our SEC filings.

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CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2024 Earnings Call	13-Feb-2025

We have provided reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures discussed on our call to the most directly comparable GAAP measures together with explanations of these measures in our Presentation deck appendix.

Also in our press release, we have provided historical non-GAAP financial information for the new segments, which we will begin reporting with Q1 2025 results. We will provide more details, including historical quarterly financial information by lines of business based on the new segments prior to releasing our Q1 results.

I'm joined on today's call by Bob Sulentic, our Chair and CEO; and Emma Giamartino, our Chief Financial Officer. Throughout their remarks, when Bob and Emma cite financial performance relative to expectations, they are referring to actual results against the outlook we provided on our Q3 2024 earnings call in October, unless otherwise noted.

Also, as a reminder, our resilient businesses include facilities management, project management, property management, loan servicing, valuations, and recurring investment management fees. Our transactional businesses comprise property sales, leasing, mortgage origination, carried interest, and incentive fees in the Investment Management business and Development fees.

Finally, unless otherwise noted, whenever we cite growth rates, we are referring to the percentage change versus the 2023 fourth quarter in US dollars.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Bob.

Robert E. Sulentic

Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer, CBRE Group, Inc.

Thank you, Chandni, and good morning, everyone. Q4 of 2024 was CBRE's best quarter ever for core earnings and free cash flow with broad strength across our business. We also made significant progress in executing our strategy, positioning the company to continue to deliver double-digit earnings growth on an enduring basis. First, we acquired Industrious, the premium flex workplace provider. This advances our ability to meet office occupier and landlord demand for flexibility and an elevated experience.

The Industrious transaction also became the catalyst for us to consolidate all our building management businesses into one segment called Building Operations & Experience. This move allows us to build expertise and scale advantage across many areas that are common to the operation of buildings.

Jamie Hodari, Industrious' CEO, who has exceptional strategic, operational and entrepreneurial skills, is leading this segment as its CEO. We also completed the combination of CBRE Project Management with Turner & Townsend. This creates a large, uniquely positioned program and project management business with multiple avenues for resilient revenue growth in areas like infrastructure, energy and data centers.

Finally, we took two additional steps to upgrade our senior leadership team. First, we gave our COO Vikram Kohli, whose capabilities are evident in the major impact he had on our business in 2024, additional responsibility as CEO of our Advisory business. Second, we named Adam Gallistel, who will join CBRE in April and Andy Glanzman as co-CEOs of our Investment Management business. As leader of GIC's Americas business, Adam forged an exceptional track record and prominent industry profile while Andy has proven to be a strong operational leader who has overseen CBRE Investment Management's strategic evolution.

With all these moves in mind, we have reorganized the company into four business segments. Two of the segments, Building Operations & Experience and Project Management, are entirely comprised of resilient

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CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2024 Earnings Call	13-Feb-2025

businesses. Together, they generated $1.4 billion of SOP in 2024 and they are growing organically at a double- digit rate. In both segments, we have tremendous opportunities to scale our position in huge, fragmented and underpenetrated markets.

Our Advisory segment, which includes leasing, capital markets valuations and loan servicing, is a cornerstone of our business. It is responsible for producing large profits, high margins, strong cash flow conversion and abundant data and market intelligence that is valuable across our company.

Our Real Estate Investments segment, which includes our Investment Management and Development businesses, is underappreciated. This segment has significant embedded profits, and we expect it to become one of the leading contributors to our long term growth. Additionally, it is an ongoing source of compelling investment opportunities for CBRE.

Our confidence in CBRE's future has never been higher, as evidenced by our considerable share repurchases since the end of the third quarter. Despite the strong appreciation of our shares over the last year, we believe the market is undervaluing our business relative to both its growth profile and dramatically enhanced resiliency. Now Emma will discuss the quarter's highlights and our outlook for 2025. Emma?

Emma E. Giamartino

Chief Financial Officer, CBRE Group, Inc.

Thank you, Bob. We exceeded expectations with a record quarter across almost every metrics. Our resilient businesses, which our facilities management, property management, project management, loan servicing, valuations and recurring investment management fees, grew net revenues 16% in the quarter and 14% for the year, while delivering operating leverage.

Resilient businesses contributed nearly 60% of our total SOP for the year, essentially matching 2023. This relative contribution by our resilient businesses is notable in a year when our transaction revenue grew considerably, yet capital markets activity is still well below peak levels.

In our Advisory segment results were driven by record leasing revenue and a continued rebound in capital markets. Globally, leasing revenue grew 15% with notable strength in APAC and the Americas. US office leasing delivered 28% revenue growth. Office occupiers are increasingly comfortable making long term decisions, given improved return to office momentum and a healthy economic outlook. The durability of office leasing growth was a prominent question as recently as October, when we last reported earnings. While New York led most of the office leasing recovery in 2024, other markets accelerated substantially in the fourth quarter.

Gateway markets comprised of New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington, D.C. and Boston grew approximately 30% in aggregate. Other large markets like Dallas, Atlanta and Seattle grew even faster, and certain smaller Midwest markets, including Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Minneapolis picked up considerably. This gives us confidence that office leasing will continue to increase as activity has spread broadly. Retail leasing also exhibited solid growth, while industrial leasing was essentially flat.

Turning to global property sales, revenue growth accelerated to 35%. Growth is strong across all asset classes globally, with a notable increase in office sales in the US and EMEA, albeit off a low base of activity.

Our mortgage origination business was up 37%, led by a 76% increase in origination fees, partly offset by lower escrow income. We saw a strong pickup in loan origination volume across financing sources, most notably from the GSEs and banks.

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CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2024 Earnings Call	13-Feb-2025

While acquisition financing is increasing, refinancings continued to lead the recovery, making up almost 60% of total volume for the quarter. Overall, Advisory SOP rose 34% with improved margin on net revenue.

In the GWS segment, net revenue grew 18%. Facilities management net revenue increased 24% with broad based strength in both the enterprise and local businesses. We are seeing a good balance of new clients and expansions across enterprise sectors, especially technology, industrial, data centers and health care.

Local revenue growth was led by the UK and the Americas. The Americas has emerged as the local business' second largest region, up from the fourth largest in 2023. This is a direct result of executing our strategy to increase share in the US, a market that is still barely penetrated.

Our Project Management business saw a solid net revenue increase, with particular strength in North America and the UK, led by real estate and infrastructure. For the full year 2024, Project Management net revenue grew 10%, with operating leverage driving faster SOP growth. This growth was dominated by Turner & Townsend, which achieved 19% revenue growth for the year, supporting our view that the aggregate project management business will achieve accelerated growth when combined. The GWS SOP margin improved for the full year, reflecting our cost efforts and focus on contract profitability.

In our REI segment, SOP increased to $150 million in Q4, led by our Development business. As expected, we had significant monetizations in the quarter, including several data center development sites. This was one of our Development business' strongest quarters and reflects our distinct capabilities as a land acquirer and developer, as well as our proactive decision to invest in areas benefiting from secular tailwinds when others were on the sidelines.

Within our Investment Management business, Q4 operating profit declined, partly driven by a ramp up of costs in anticipation of increased capital raising. We raised over $10 billion in 2024, with half of it coming in the fourth quarter. AUM ended 2024 at $146 billion, essentially flat for the year. Market sentiment continues to improve with many investors positioning their portfolios to capture opportunities in the latter half of 2025.

Before turning to our outlook, I'll comment on cash flow and capital allocation. Free cash flow exceeded expectations, increasing to more than $1.5 billion for the year, and free cash flow conversion reached almost 100%, surpassing our 75% to 85% target range. We deployed approximately $2 billion of capital in 2024 across M&A, real estate co-investment, and share repurchases. This is in line with our strategy to invest in resilient businesses that augment CBRE's growth profile, expand our total addressable market, and generate high risk adjusted returns.

Besides several notable M&A transactions, we capitalized 29 development projects for the year, including 12 in Q4. Our significant efforts to build the pipeline over the past few years, while many investors were on the sidelines has positioned our development business to break ground on more than 50 projects in 2025, almost double the number in 2024.

We estimate that we have more than $900 million of embedded net profits in our development, in-process portfolio and pipeline as we capitalize a second large portfolio of development assets in the fourth quarter, this time focused on industrial assets. Our in-process and pipeline portfolio currently stands at more than $32 billion with outstanding balance sheet equity co-investment of approximately $800 million.

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CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2024 Earnings Call	13-Feb-2025

And as Bob mentioned, we also continue to see significant unrecognized value in CBRE shares. This led us to repurchase more than $800 million worth of shares since the end of the third quarter. We have high conviction in our growth prospects and believe our ability to consistently generate double-digit organic earnings growth justifies a premium through cycle multiple.

Looking ahead, we expect another year of strong free cash flow generation, approximating last year's total of $1.5 billion. We anticipate free cash flow conversion within our 75% to 85% target range this year as the benefit from bonus timing we saw in 2024 reverses. Absent material M&A, we expect to end the year with net leverage below one turn, but are willing to lever up to two turns for the right M&A opportunities.

Turning to our outlook, we expect to easily set a new peak in 2025 with core EPS projected to be in the range of $5.80 to $6.10. This would represent more than 16% growth at the middle of the range supported by mid-teens SOP growth across our resilient lines of business, momentum in leasing and a continued rebound in capital markets. It is notable that we're expecting this level of earnings when transaction activity is more muted than in other cyclical recoveries.

We're again guiding to a wide range this year because of uncertainties around the level of currency headwinds and the trajectory of interest rates. We've embedded a currency translation headwind of 1% to 2% in our consolidated outlook. Absent this headwind, expected core EPS growth would be in the high-teens.

Turning to our segments, we are providing guidance under our new as well as the old segment structure, as shown on slide 8 to help investors transition their coverage. Note that all percentage growth rate estimates for the segments are in local currency.

In our Advisory segment, we expect low to mid-teens SOP growth driven by solid leasing revenue growth and a steady capital markets recovery, both of which will underpin margin expansion.

In our Building Operations & Experience segment, we expect above trend mid-teens revenue growth supported by local's further expansion in the US and a full year contribution from Industrious. We anticipate continued operating leverage resulting from 2024 cost initiatives which will drive high-teens SOP growth.

In Project Management, we foresee significant opportunities in the US and UK across infrastructure and traditional real estate. Combining the Turner & Townsend and CBRE Project Management businesses, requires a complex integration. As such, in the first year, we are anticipating strong, but slightly below trend SOP growth in the low-to-mid-teens.

Finally, in Real Estate Investments, we expect to improve on 2024's SOP. Investment Management operating profit will likely be flat with 2024, which benefited from a large incentive fee that will not repeat.

In the Development business, we see continued elevated data center activity and have positioned the portfolio to benefit from this secular tailwind, with data center site monetization expected to contribute more than half of this year's development profits.

As to the seasonal distribution of earnings, Q1 will once again be our smallest quarter in the year. However, the quarter should see core EBITDA increase at a high-teens rate and it should contribute a low double-digit percentage of our full year core EPS. We also expect another strong fourth quarter in 2025, which should account for a similar portion of our full-year core EPS as it did in 2024.

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CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2024 Earnings Call	13-Feb-2025

In addition, we note that our restructuring efforts are largely behind us, and we are seeing the benefit of margin expansion across the company. As a reminder, we announced a major efficiency program in GWS in early 2024 to rapidly bring costs in line with revenue. This highly successful initiative resulted in an increase in one-time cash adjustments in 2024 that will not recur in 2025.

M&A-related amortization and integration costs will continue, but we are highly focused on minimizing other cash adjustments. Therefore, going into 2025, we expect to meaningfully narrow the delta between our GAAP and core earnings.

With an improved market backdrop, we are poised to benefit from all the work we've done to create a resilient, growth-oriented enterprise capable of sustaining double-digit growth in 2025 and beyond.

Now, I'll hand it back to Bob for closing remarks. Bob?

Robert E. Sulentic

Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer, CBRE Group, Inc.

Thank you, Emma. I'll conclude with some thoughts on our participation in the data center sector for two reasons. First, we're receiving many questions on this topic, given the amount of activity in the sector. And second, our work with data centers clearly demonstrates how our strategy plays out in practice.

A foundational element of that strategy is to focus financial and operational resources in areas benefiting from secular tailwinds. And we have brought this focus to the data center sector, growing its contribution to core EBIDTA from 3% three years ago to almost 10% in 2024. Over that time, our total data center profit has increased over 2.5 times.

Emma commented that our Development business is capitalizing on its competency in acquiring, improving, and monetizing land sites to take advantage of the data center opportunity. As a reference point, we did this with industrial land to great effect coming out of the pandemic.

CBRE participates meaningfully in the data center sector across multiple other lines of business as well, including project management, facilities management, brokerage, and to a lesser degree, investment management.

Turner & Townsend has more than 150 data center projects underway and has completed over 500 of these projects in the last decade. Data center revenue for Turner & Townsend has increased 50% annually in each of the last three years.

Our facilities management group manages over 700 data centers. Within this business, we fortified our technical services capabilities with last year's acquisition of Direct Line Global, which serves a large base of hyperscale clients.

In our Advisory business, we arranged $9 billion of sales, lease, and financing transactions for North American data centers last year. While total data center inventory in the market has nearly doubled in the past four years, our data center profit growth has outpaced this market expansion and is poised for continued strong growth.

With that operator, we'll open the line for questions.

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CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2024 Earnings Call	13-Feb-2025

QUESTION AND ANSWER SECTION

Operator: Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Anthony Paolone with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Anthony Paolone

Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC

Thank you, and good morning. First question relates to capital markets. Can you talk about just, you know, your guidance around a more muted sort of recovery there versus, you know, kind of what you're seeing right now today, trying to understand, like, if this volatility and rates over the last couple of months has actually paused things, or if you're just being prudent, kind of with the more muted rebound?

Emma E. Giamartino

Chief Financial Officer, CBRE Group, Inc.

So, Tony, thanks for the question. I want to step back and say when we look at our transaction activity for the year, just like we did in 2024, we look at leasing and capital markets combined, because we can get to our outlook across a broad range of scenarios and a broad range of rate outlooks.

And then the other comment I want to make on rates specifically in capital markets is that this is a much smaller portion of our business than would be implied by the number of questions we get asked about this business.

So, moving to capital markets specifically, what we saw in Q4 is transaction activity picked up across the board, but we're still far below peak levels, we're 40% of 2021, and we're not back at 2019 levels. We expect a continued pick up in 2025. We're very early in the year, but in the first six weeks of the year, we're seeing 20% growth in US sales activity. But we are being cautious because we don't know what the trajectory of rates will be through the remainder of the year.

On the financing side, we saw very strong growth in the fourth quarter. We're expecting that to continue. And one of the important components of financing is that there's still a tremendous amount of refinancing ahead of us. Maturities in 2025 will be at the same level of 2024, so that will drive our loan origination revenue above our sales revenue.

But to tie it all together, you've got to think about our leasing and capital markets revenue in combination. And as long as the economy remains healthy and it's growing, our leasing revenue is going to grow. There's upside to our numbers if rates come down more than everyone's expecting at the moment.

Anthony Paolone

Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC

Okay. Thanks for that. Then if I, on that note, zoom out a bit for my follow-up to just the Advisory segment more broadly, how much of the growth in SOP that you expect there is from, like, say, revenue versus some margin expansion? Just trying to understand, how much is coming from each?

Emma E. Giamartino

Chief Financial Officer, CBRE Group, Inc.

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CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2024 Earnings Call	13-Feb-2025

So on the top line, we're expecting low double-digit revenue growth and then we're expecting margin expansion on top of that.

Anthony Paolone

Analyst, JPMorgan Securities LLC

Okay. Yeah. Thanks for the color.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Griffin with Citi. Please proceed with your question.

Michael A. Griffin

Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Great. Thanks. Appreciate all the color you guys have given on the Project Management business and the growth opportunity there. Obviously, I know there's going to be some integration aspect of the Turner & Townsend part of that business in 2025. But as you look ahead to maybe 2026 and beyond, does the Turner & Townsend growth run rate of 20% make sense for that business? Because, I mean, it seems like there's a pretty large TAM there, so maybe how should we think about kind of long-term organic growth potential with the integration of that business?

Robert E. Sulentic

Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer, CBRE Group, Inc.

Michael, this is Bob. We don't expect that business to grow 20% on an enduring basis, but we do expect it to grow in the mid-teens. Turner & Townsend's portfolio of projects and the capability set they bring to the table is in areas that grow faster than what our legacy business grows. So they are, obviously, based on our opening comments, very big in data centers, they're very big in infrastructure, very big in green energy, and in traditional energy, they're very big in manufacturing, et cetera, areas that have lots of tailwinds.

What our legacy business did was much more focused on tenant finish projects for our occupier clients that would be attendant to the campuses they have and so forth. We also did some data center work, and we also did some more complex work, but Turner & Townsend tilts us heavily in the areas that are growing more rapidly. So we expect that business combined to grow in the mid-teens.

The Turner & Townsend piece was growing at closer to 20%, but when you combine the two and Turner & Townsend leads it, we see it as a mid-teens grower, and we're confident in its ability to do that. We also think there'll be some M&A opportunities that come out of that business.

Michael A. Griffin

Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Thanks, Bob. Appreciate the color there. And then, Emma, I just kind of want to go back to your comments around your development opportunities. It seems like you're pretty optimistic about the industrial portion of that. But, you know, if it seems like industrial leasing, at least this past quarter was flat sequentially. Should we take this as you're getting ahead of an expected recovery? And should we - do you expect an inflection point in fundamentals, you know, maybe toward the back half of this year?

Robert E. Sulentic

Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer, CBRE Group, Inc.

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CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)	Corrected Transcript
Q4 2024 Earnings Call	13-Feb-2025

Michael, I'm going to take that one. What's happened forever in the Development business is that when the very best time comes around to acquire sites for future development opportunities, because there's not going to be big deliveries, because rental rates are going to recover over the next several years, many, many of the participants in the market go to the sidelines. Capital sources are afraid to invest, and developers can't acquire sites and start projects, because they can't raise capital. I was just at a conference offsite this week, and there was a lot of talk about that.

We have a business that, because of its track record, can do a good job of raising capital right now, but we also lubricate the raising of third-party capital by putting more of our own capital into those projects at this juncture.

So, last year, we've talked about it quite a bit. We, on balance sheet, capitalized two big portfolios, one office portfolio and one industrial portfolio - excuse me, one multifamily portfolio and one industrial portfolio. We think those projects are going to harvest at a time when there's very little new product coming on, when rental rates will have recovered, and when vacancies are down. We believe those projects will create great profit opportunities for us.

There's smaller investments we've made in other projects that we think will have the same dynamics when they harvest. We're going to start 50 projects in Trammell Crow Company this year, we think they're going to harvest at a great time, and that's really the strategy in that business. We have very seasoned developers. They're very, very good at land acquisition, they're very good at land development, which allows us to get land lifts on things like industrial at the right time and data centers at the right time.

But we believe that business is positioned to do very, very good things for CBRE, as evidenced by Emma's comment that we see $900 million of embedded profit in what we have underway in the business now.

Michael A. Griffin

Analyst, Citigroup Global Markets, Inc.

Great. That's it for me. Thanks for the time.

Operator: Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Julien Blouin with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Julien Blouin

Analyst, Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Hi. Thank you for taking my question. You know, there was mention of the Investment Management division being sort of one of the more underappreciated parts of the business and where there's maybe the most opportunity, I'd love to dig in a little bit on that.

And also when we sort of think about the guidance for 2025 being flat, I guess just trying to understand what the drivers of that are, is it more on the sort of cost side affecting the SOP growth? Is it top line? Is FX having a meaningful impact? Just sort of trying to unpick that.

Robert E. Sulentic

Chair, President & Chief Executive Officer, CBRE Group, Inc.

Julien, we think the entire Real Estate Investment segment of our business is underappreciated. It includes Trammell Crow Company, our Development business, I just commented on that.

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CBRE Group Inc. published this content on February 13, 2025, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on February 13, 2025 at 17:33:06.779.

Latest news about CBRE Group, Inc.

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Company Profile

CBRE Group, Inc. specializes in providing consulting services in commercial real estate. The group's activity is organized around 2 sectors: - investment management: transaction and project management, evaluation and valuation, real estate leasing, strategic advice for pension funds, insurance companies, institutional investors, etc. at the end of 2025, the group had USD 155.5 billion in assets under management; - real estate asset development and management: industrial, commercial and office buildings, health facilities, airports, etc.

Employees

155,000

Sector

Real Estate Services

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