Fine-tuning the model prior to H1 resultsEPS CHANGECHANGE IN EPS2020 : 0.45 vs 0.56 -19.7%2021 : 0.56 vs 0.61 -8.65%
Our EPS is negatively impacted by the lower activity level and margin assumptions. COVID-19 has had a more widespread impact since we last updated our model, resulting in this sharp degradation of the EPS.
Region-wise for 2020, we expect Denmark will continue to remain resilient but Norway may see a sharp drop in demand due to its oil-dependent economy. Egypt and China should show positive growth, while Belgium/France and Malayasia, which were the most impacted by prolonged lockdowns, should see significant top-line and margin declines this year (for Belgium/France: sales -14% and EBITDA -22% vs our previous estimates). Turkey might be affected by unfavourable FX and, hence, may see a negative EBITDA this year too. Given that the US is still undergoing partial lockdowns, we have taken a conservative stance on this region (sales -8% and EBITDA -15% vs our previous estimates). Lastly, we have reduced EBITDA for Italy, which mainly accounts for the corporate level activities, to -3.7m, because of the one-off announced during Q1 and possible restructuring expenses.
For now, we have left the top-line growth and EBITDA margin improvement unchanged for 2021, but the lowered 2020 base has impacted the 2021 figures in absolute terms.CHANGE IN DCF 10.1 vs 11.1 -9.22%
A further decline in the top line and a reduction in the EBITDA margin have resulted in a decline of 1.03 in the DCF.