Gruppa Cherkizovo : National indexes of meat supply (IMS), January – November 2018

Cherkizovo Group publishes industrial meat supply indexes for January - November 2018. The indexes describe dynamics of meat supply - poultry, pork and beef - in Russia.

Industrial Meat Supply Index (IMS) remained flat year on year (y-o-y) in January - November 2018. The index decreased by 1% y-o-y in November driven by: 'high base effect' - high level of supply in 2017, higher production costs in 2018, new outbursts of African Swine Fever (ASF) and avian influenza accompanied by compulsory culling of stock and decrease of import (the latter mostly influenced pork supply).

IMS Index of poultry in January - November 2018 was stable y-o-y. The index did not change in November. Domestic production of poultry went down slightly but this decrease was offset by equally insignificant increase of import and decrease of export. In our view (there is no official statistics for different species), turkey production went down and broiler production was stable in November.

IMS Index of pork in January - November 2018 decreased by 1% y-o-y. In November the index went down 3% y-o-y, driven mostly by: 'high base effect' - high level of supply in 2017 and decrease of import due to the ban of Brazilian pork shipments. Pork and beef imports from Brazil to Russia were banned due to rampant use of meat growth stimulator ractopamine by some Brazilian producers. The import ban was cancelled on 01.11.2018 after Brazilian authorities had pledged to control the production more strictly. In our estimate, about 1 000 t (less than 1% of supply) of Brazilian meat will be imported in December.

IMS Index of beef in Jan-Nov 2018 increased by 1% y-o-y. In November IMS beef Index went up by 1% y-o-y driven by production growth in Orel, Voronezh and Tatarstan regions. Import is stable y-o-y despite the fact that there is no Brazilian beef at the market.