Financials China Southern Airlines Company Limited Shanghai S.E.

Equities

600029

CNE000001FG0

Airlines

End-of-day quote Shanghai S.E. Other stock markets 06:00:00 2024-04-25 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
5.72 ^CNY	+1.24%		+4.57%	-0.69%

Apr. 18	China Southern Airlines Begins Direct Flight Operations to Riyadh	MT
Apr. 16	China Southern Airlines' Passenger Traffic Surges in March	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	78,905	82,476	104,417	123,100	91,701	89,297	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	262,310	220,356	256,980	232,145	217,443	279,038	276,156	260,872
P/E ratio	21.3 x	-5.05 x	-5.07 x	-2.36 x	-13.1 x	8.68 x	6.69 x	4.43 x
Yield	-	-	-	-	-	0.39%	1.51%	1.9%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.51 x	0.89 x	1.03 x	1.41 x	0.57 x	0.5 x	0.44 x	0.43 x
EV / Revenue	1.7 x	2.38 x	2.53 x	2.67 x	1.36 x	1.56 x	1.37 x	1.26 x
EV / EBITDA	7.49 x	24.6 x	21.2 x	-10.2 x	25.1 x	7.8 x	6.98 x	6.13 x
EV / FCF	16.9 x	-110 x	-92.6 x	-67.6 x	7.13 x	3,245 x	117 x	48.5 x
FCF Yield	5.93%	-0.91%	-1.08%	-1.48%	14%	0.03%	0.85%	2.06%
Price to Book	0.9 x	0.86 x	0.91 x	1.87 x	-	1.1 x	0.89 x	0.77 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	12,267,172	15,329,302	16,948,417	18,120,890	18,120,906	18,120,908	-	-
Reference price ²	4.683	3.888	3.805	4.487	3.008	2.629	2.629	2.629
Announcement Date	3/30/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/28/23	3/27/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	154,322	92,561	101,644	87,059	159,929	178,671	201,691	207,574
EBITDA ¹	35,033	8,940	12,142	-22,852	8,674	35,764	39,537	42,552
EBIT ¹	3,202	-16,550	-14,696	-32,199	-2,142	5,956	16,770	15,595
Operating Margin	2.07%	-17.88%	-14.46%	-36.99%	-1.34%	3.33%	8.31%	7.51%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	4,070	-15,195	-13,910	-31,526	-1,645	7,861	16,302	16,476
Net income ¹	2,651	-10,847	-12,106	-32,682	-4,209	6,175	12,030	9,495
Net margin	1.72%	-11.72%	-11.91%	-37.54%	-2.63%	3.46%	5.96%	4.57%
EPS ²	0.2200	-0.7700	-0.7500	-1.900	-0.2300	0.3028	0.3932	0.5938
Free Cash Flow ¹	15,553	-2,012	-2,776	-3,432	30,501	86	2,352	5,377
FCF margin	10.08%	-2.17%	-2.73%	-3.94%	19.07%	0.05%	1.17%	2.59%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	44.4%	-	-	-	351.64%	0.24%	5.95%	12.64%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	586.68%	-	-	-	-	1.39%	19.55%	56.63%
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	-	0.0102	0.0397	0.0500
Announcement Date	3/30/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/28/23	3/27/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	81,383	38,964	-	26,919	23,149	50,068	21,471	19,346	40,817	29,344	16,898	46,242	34,055	37,775	71,830	47,661	40,438	88,099	38,848	43,155	54,456	45,913
EBITDA ¹	-	-	-	-	-2,841	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	5,290	8,799	13,314	4,457
EBIT	-	-	-	-	-7,298	-	-5,907	-9,537	-10,564	-5,696	-11,059	-15,671	-1,467	-475	1,433	5,586	-5,786	-	-	-	-	-
Operating Margin	-	-	-	-	-31.53%	-	-27.51%	-49.3%	-25.88%	-19.41%	-65.45%	-33.89%	-4.31%	-1.26%	1.99%	11.72%	-14.31%	-	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-5,483	-10,917	-16,420	-	-361	-	5,727	-5,611	-	-1,401	2,461	7,191	-1,805
Net income	-	-	-4,690	-1,431	-5,984	-7,416	-4,496	-6,992	-11,488	-	-	-21,209	-1,898	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	-	-	-	-5.32%	-25.85%	-14.81%	-20.94%	-36.14%	-28.15%	-	-	-45.87%	-5.57%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS	0.0800	-0.6400	-	-	-	-0.4500	-	-	-0.6800	-	-	-1.220	-	-	-0.1600	-	-	-0.0700	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	3/30/20	8/28/20	8/27/21	10/29/21	3/30/22	3/30/22	4/28/22	8/30/22	8/30/22	10/28/22	3/28/23	3/28/23	4/28/23	8/29/23	8/29/23	10/27/23	3/27/24	3/27/24	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	183,405	137,880	152,563	109,045	125,742	189,742	186,860	171,576
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	5.235 x	15.42 x	12.56 x	-4.772 x	14.5 x	5.305 x	4.726 x	4.032 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	15,553	-2,012	-2,776	-3,432	30,501	86	2,352	5,377
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	4.08%	-14.6%	-17.6%	-62.2%	-10.8%	13.8%	19.6%	17.8%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	1.03%	-3.43%	-3.73%	-10.3%	-1.36%	1.85%	2.35%	3.15%
Assets ¹	257,604	316,370	324,819	317,310	310,604	333,769	511,909	301,423
Book Value Per Share ²	5.230	4.540	4.190	2.400	-	2.390	2.940	3.430
Cash Flow per Share ²	2.540	-0.4400	0.8300	0.2000	-	1.630	1.580	1.670
Capex ¹	15,622	11,061	16,147	6,897	9,633	13,354	19,708	16,171
Capex / Sales	10.12%	11.95%	15.89%	7.92%	6.02%	7.47%	9.77%	7.79%
Announcement Date	3/30/20	3/30/21	3/30/22	3/28/23	3/27/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for China Southern Airlines Company Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

2.629 CNY

Average target price

3.609 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+37.30%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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