Q1 2022 Investor Relations Update
Board Meeting
May 2022
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary
- Market & Industry Recap
- Trading History & Analyst Perspectives
- Ownership Summary
- Investor Engagement Summary
- Street Views - Issues & Sentiment
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Executive Summary
General Economic Outlook:
- Investor sentiment continues to be driven by a combination of factors, including expectations around rising interest rates, inflation, as well as uncertainty around COVID variants
Share and Debt Trading Performance:
- Since Q4 2021, Cineplex's share price saw volatility with the onset of the Omicron variant and has since seen some recovery with the recent announcement on re- openings
- Cineplex's stock price is currently relatively flat to where it was trading in December 2021 when we saw a modest increase in share price following the favorable ruling on the Cineworld litigation
- Market continues to ascribe little to no value to the Cineworld judgement
- Cineplex's Second Lien Notes (High Yield Bond) is trading in the yield of 6.24% or 104.25% as % of par
- Subordinated Convertible Debentures (Convertible Debentures) have continued to trade well, as Cineplex's underlying common shares remain above the strike price ($10.94), keeping the convertible well in-the-money
Instrument | Current | Q1 2022 | Q4 2021 |
(4.21.2022) | (3.31.2022) | (12.31.2021 | |
Share Price | $13.72 | $13.41 | $13.61 | |
High Yield (price as % of par) | 104.25% | 103.88% | 104.94% | |
Convertible Debentures | 132.00% | 130.00% | 132.00% |
Investor Ownership, Outreach & Investor Conferences:
- Since the last quarter, we have not noted any material movement in Cineplex equity ownership
- Our top holders continue to own 19.3% of the shares outstanding and have held their position steady in the most recent period
- Sand Grove Capital continues to remain Cineplex's largest shareholder with ownership of 6.2 million shares or 9.8%
- During Q1-22, Management participated in 2 non-deal investor conferences coordinated by Banks including 6 one-on-one investor meetings and 2 fireside chats within a large group of investors
- Aside from formal conferences, Management also conducted informal one-on-one meetings with 21 existing investors and prospective investors
- Management is regularly in touch with Sand Grove and has held four calls since the beginning of 2022; Sand Grove also spoke with the Chair of the Board
Street Views and Concerns:
- Analysts continue to recognize the risks associated with theatre recovery but are acknowledging the momentum we are building with our businesses post Q1-22 after
- Average analyst target price of $17.79 represents ~31.3% premium to current price
- Since Q4-21, we have seen one decrease and six unchanged ratings
- The following are on top of mind for investors: 1) Cineworld litigation 2) COVID-19 related restrictions / re-openings 3) studio models / streaming 4) inflation 5) liquidity
- Investors would like to see at least one quarter of solid performance in order to assess state of recovery
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Market & Industry Recap
Q1 22 Market & Industry Recap
BULLS | BEARS | |||
• We saw a dramatic repricing of the Fed rate hike path throughout | ||||
• | Consumer resilience remained underpinned by a tight labor | Q1 22. Late in the quarter, markets priced in a ~80% probability of | ||
a 50 bp rate hike in May and ~200 bp in cumulative hikes by the | ||||
market with a record 5M more job openings than available | ||||
end of 2022 following the 25 bp liftoff at the March meeting. | ||||
workers. | ||||
Market | • | Following a ~12% drawdown from the January record, U.S. stocks | • | This shift was driven by concerns over continued inflationary |
pressures. Such concerns were highlighted by 40-year high CPI | ||||
found support late in the quarter from oversold conditions and the | ||||
prints and a ~ 30% rally in the broad commodity complex. | ||||
contrarian buy signals triggered by depressed positioning and | ||||
sentiment indicators. | • The hawkish Fed policy shift drove a big backup in bond yields and | |||
Treasuries suffered one of their worst quarters on record. | ||||
• U.S. equities had their first quarterly decline since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Q1 20. | ||||
General | • | This move to the downside was driven by a plethora of different headwinds, some of the most common being hawkish commentary from | ||
the Fed, waning fiscal stimulus, dampened earnings momentum, Omicron drag and geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Russian |
invasion of Ukraine.
- Cineworld CEO Mookie Greidinger said on the companies FY 2021 results call that he is "quite confident" that the Canadian High Court would reverse last year's ruling in which Cineplex was granted $1.23bn for damages.
- Dave & Buster's announced the acquisition of Main Event for $835 Million. Main Event is a family entertainment concept with 50
Notable | locations in the U.S. The deal is expected to close later this year and upon closing, Chris Morris, the current CEO of Main Event will be |
named CEO of Dave & Buster's. | |
Recent Peer • | AMC Entertainment upsized its private offering of $950.0M vs prior $500.0M of 7.5% first lien senior secured notes due 2029. AMC also |
News | invested $27.9M in cash in Hycroft Mining in exchange for 23.4M units, with each unit consisting of one common share of Hycroft and |
one common share purchase warrant. | |
• | National CineMedia announced the launch of one of the largest data-driven technology platforms for moviegoers, NCMx™. The new |
data, insights, and analytics platform uses the company's comprehensive knowledge and data about moviegoer behavior to connect | |
brands with custom audiences in theaters as well as on digital screens before and after attending movies. |
Market Data Source: FactSet; Company Filings
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Cineplex Inc. published this content on 23 May 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 27 May 2022 17:57:17 UTC.