New report analyzes how the emergence and increased availability of vaccines will impact the recovery of healthcare markets across the globe
Lockdowns, procedure deferrals, clinical trial pauses and M&A challenges all impact the fundamental operations of healthcare stakeholders. Real world data from Clarivate provides a clear understanding of past trends and allows for predictive forecasting to enable more confident decision-making for stakeholders tasked with the recovery of healthcare systems.
The report details the current vaccine development status and the various distinctions between available vaccines, an analysis of global vaccination rollout campaigns, how these factors influence forecasting and the impact of vaccination availability on healthcare markets and sectors.
Clarivate analysts reviewed the impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic in market forecasting, incorporating iterative improvements based on real-world circumstances.
The Clarivate COVID-19 Vaccine Availability and Medtech Impact report finds:
- Vaccine Acceptance and Rate Forecast by Geography -- Along with supply and deployment concerns, varying rates of trust in the COVID-19 vaccine observed in recent surveys have raised concerns about whether enough of the population would be willing to get vaccinated. As a result, rates of vaccine acceptance—defined as the proportion of unvaccinated adults who indicate that they would receive a vaccine if it were available to them—vary widely by region. Studies show vaccine acceptance rates of 94% in
Malaysia , 89% in theUK , 85% in Mainland China andMexico respectively, 79% inCanada and 71% inthe United States , among others.1 Vaccination penetration forecasts for each country, coupled with an estimated reopening threshold of 60%—based on the penetration rate inIsrael at which the government began permanent re-openings—provide a guideline for variation in anticipated reopening timelines. - Figure 1- Vaccination Rate Forecast by Geography2
- Figure 2- Vaccine Courses Administered (% of Population)3
- Site of Service Impacts -- During the initial COVID-19 wave, US-based Ambulatory Surgery Centers (ASC) were hardest hit, while inpatient settings were the least impacted, as expected. ASCs and offices were trending at higher procedure capacity utilization rates than hospitals in Q4 2020, which may signal a more robust 2021 recovery for those settings.4 ASCs functioned at slightly higher than 100% full utilization (i.e., exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels) through the last quarter of the year. This may signal a push of procedures away from inpatient settings amid a resurgence of COVID-19 that ultimately were performed in ASCs.5
- Non-Acute Settings – There is a similar view for US-based non-acute settings, demonstrating how skilled nursing facilities remain substantially below full procedure capacity utilization, possibly due to the need for expanded nursing staff in hospitals treating COVID-19 patients. Simultaneously, clinics and home health also took a substantial hit in the initial wave, but have seen stronger recovery following that initial wave. Notably, telehealth emerged as a useful alternative for in-person care in 2020; however, telehealth volumes remain quite low relatively; and its heightened use will endure and likely expand beyond the pandemic.6
Clarivate is committed to comprehensively supporting customers across the entire drug, device and medical technology lifecycles to advance human health, including the
To access the full COVID-19 Vaccine Availability and Medtech Impact report, click here.
Methodology for the Clarivate COVID-19 Vaccine Availability and Medtech Impact Report
Forecasts and insights provided in this report were developed by Clarivate analysts, using a diversity of proprietary sources, including: Market Tracking: Medical Supply Distribution data enables manufacturers to identify opportunities and risks by confidently assessing market share based on real-time insights; Clarivate Real World Data™ product, which provides access to real-word data, such as patient volumes by procedure group and site of service; Medtech Insights™, which provides comprehensive data forecasts and analysis for global and regional medical device markets; and Market Assessment Epidemiology™, which provides solutions to understand the complete disease landscape and size global markets with real-world data.
About Clarivate
Clarivate™ is a global leader in providing solutions to accelerate the lifecycle of innovation. Our bold mission is to help customers solve some of the world's most complex problems by providing actionable information and insights that reduce the time from new ideas to life-changing inventions in the areas of science and intellectual property. We help customers discover, protect and commercialize their inventions using our trusted subscription and technology-based solutions coupled with deep domain expertise. For more information, please visit clarivate.com.
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1 Notes: Acceptance is defined as the percentage of unvaccinated adults who strongly or somewhat agree with the statement "if a COVID-19 vaccine were available to me, I would get it." Source: Clarivate analysis
2 Vaccination rate forecast, by geography. Notes: Regional estimates represent total of countries covered within each graph only, and does not include other countries from the region (e.g.
3 Vaccination rate forecast, by geography. Notes: Regional estimates represent total of countries covered within each graph only, and does not include other countries from the region (e.g.
4 Source: Clarivate, COVID-19 Dashboard
5 Source: Clarivate, COVID-19 Dashboard April 2021
6 Source: Clarivate, COVID-19 Dashboard
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