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    ALCLA   FR0004152882

CLASQUIN

(ALCLA)
  Report
Real-time Quote. Real-time Euronext Paris - 10/20 11:35:02 am
69.2 EUR   +3.59%
09/23CLASQUIN : 2021_09_23 Kepler
PU
09/23CLASQUIN : 2021 – Half year results presentation
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09/23CLASQUIN : 2021 – Résultats Semestriels
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SummaryMost relevantAll NewsAnalyst Reco.Other languagesPress ReleasesOfficial PublicationsSector news

CLASQUIN : 2021_09_02 Kepler

09/03/2021 | 06:02am EDT

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2021-09-02 07:58:35

#TPchange

Release date: 02 September 2021

Clasquin Buy

Baptiste de Leudeville

Equity Research Analyst

+33 1 53 65 36 55

bdeleudeville@keplercheuvreux.com

France | Support services

Beta Profile:

MCap: EUR133.2m

Target Price:

EUR65.00 (49.00)

Change in TP:

32.7%

Current Price:

EUR57.80

Change in Sales:

37.4% 21E/24.2% 22E

Up/downside:

12.5%

Change in Adj EBIT:

up nm 21E/29.5% 22E

Market data:

01 September 2021

Change in Adj. EPS:

up nm 21E/50.2% 22E

A straightforward Buy

Why this report?

The freight forwarder continues to benefit from the strong demand recovery and the surge in global freight rates, as illustrated by a c.50% YOY increase in Q2 gross profit. 2019's levels are exceeded both on volume and GP. The outlook on demand and supply conditions looks positive for Clasquin, suggesting another strong H2. In this very supportive market environment, Clasquin once again outperforms the competition. Buy confirmed, TP raised to EUR65.

Key findings

  • Gross profit and volume of goods shipped are both experiencing strong double- digit growth. Both stand above 2019's pre-Covid levels.
  • Industry sources say there is a positive outlook for demand to remain strong at least until Q2-2022 and the Chinese New Year.
  • The normalisation on the front of freight rates seems unlikely to come soon, as conditions in the global supply chain remain tight to this day.
  • Clasquin outperforms the market. H1 performance (+50% reported, +47% LFL) is above DSV Panalpina's (+13% YOY) and K+N's (+30% YOY).
    Deconstructing the forecasts
  • We nearly double our EBIT estimates for 2021 on more bullish anticipations on the development of freight rates and demand.
  • We conservatively anticipate the normalisation of GP yields as of 2022.

Bloomberg: ALCLA FP

Reuters: ALCLA.PA

Free float

39.0%

Avg. daily volume (EURm)

0.1

YTD abs performance

57.5%

52-week high/low (EUR)

58.00/25.30

FY to 31/12 (EUR)

12/21E

12/22E

12/23E

Sales (m)

508.9

490.8

494.9

EBITDA adj (m)

27.5

21.7

20.1

EBIT adj (m)

20.0

14.1

12.4

Net profit adj (m)

11.2

7.4

6.3

Net financial debt (m)

41.9

31.7

22.8

FCF (m)

3.0

20.4

17.2

EPS adj. and ful. dil.

4.83

3.20

2.72

Consensus EPS

4.23

3.31

na

Net dividend

2.43

1.61

1.37

FY to 31/12

12/21E

12/22E

12/23E

P/E adj and ful. dil.

12.0

18.1

21.2

EV/EBITDA

6.9

8.3

8.6

EV/EBIT

9.5

12.8

13.9

FCF yield

2.3%

15.3%

12.9%

Dividend yield

4.2%

2.8%

2.4%

ND(F+IFRS16)/EBITDA

1.9

1.9

1.6

Gearing

108.1%

78.7%

53.6%

ROIC

14.9%

10.2%

9.7%

EV/IC

2.1

2.1

2.2

Investment case

  • Clasquin capitalises on its differentiating profile in the freight forwarding industry (medium-sized global player), which enables it to offer end-to-end solutions like industry giants do, but with higher degrees of customisation and flexibility.
  • In recent history, revenue at Clasquin usually have grown faster than that of competitors. Growth at Clasquin is balanced well and diversified.
  • In 2021, the demand and supply conditions looks very supportive for the freight forwarding industry, including Clasquin. We expect strong double digit growth in volume and gross profit, as well EBIT margin expansion.
    Catalysts
  • Surge in freight rates due to high demand and tight supply chain conditions.
  • Broadening of offering (logistics, supply chain, digital offer).
  • Business ramp-up in fast-growing regions for trade.

Valuation methodology

  • DCF (7.4% WACC, 3.4% terminal growth, 13.4% EBIT/GP margin).
    Risks to our rating
  • Lower freight rates due to overcapacity.

Clasquin

Kepler Cheuvreux and the issuer have agreed that Kepler Cheuvreux will produce and disseminate investment research on the said issuer as a service to the issuer.

IMPORTANT. Please refer at the back of the report for important

keplercheuvreux.com

information and disclosures.

and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers in France.

This research is the product of Kepler Cheuvreux, which is authorised

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2021-09-02 07:58:35

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR65.00

Booming freight rates drive a spectacular H1

Clasquin directly benefits from the recovery of global demand and the booming ocean freight rates on the back of tight supply conditions worldwide. The bulk of the 50% increase in GP (+47.5% LFL) recorded in Q2 was mostly volume-driven. The number of shipments and the volume of shipped goods again experienced double-digit YOY growth in Q2, helped by a favourable base effect (volume in air shipping had dropped 40% YOY in Q2-20). This is further accentuated by prices. Ocean freight rates soared over the past year, especially since April (chart 1). Clasquinis taking full advantage of this unprecedented shortage of capacity, as indicated by a GP/shipment of EUR423 in ocean freight in Q2, significantly above historical standards (chart 2). In air freight, GP/shipment ratio stabilises at a high level above EUR400.

Table 1: H1 gross profit

2021

2020

Change YOY

Q1

Q2

H1

Q1

Q2

H1

Q1

Q2

H1

Ocean freight

12.3

14.8

27.1

7.9

8.2

16.1

56%

80%

68%

Volume (TEU)

59,911

72,080

131,991

48,529

54,558

103,087

23%

32%

28%

Shipment

32,333

34,973

67,306

26,652

27,040

53,692

21%

29%

25%

Air freight

7.3

8.2

15.5

5.4

7.4

12.8

35%

11%

21%

Volume (T)

16,551

14,665

31,216

13,186

12,317

25,503

26%

19%

22%

Shipment

17,636

19,716

37,352

17,580

13,008

30,588

0%

52%

22%

RO/RO

2.2

2.2

4.4

2.1

1.2

3.3

5%

83%

33%

Other

2.1

2.7

4.8

2.1

1.9

4.0

0%

42%

20%

Gross profit

23.9

27.9

51.8

17.5

18.7

36.2

37%

49%

43%

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

Chart 1: Shangai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI)

Source: Shangai Shipping Exchange

Chart 2: GP/shipment (EUR) - Ocean freight

450

423

400

380

350

304

303

294

296

290

300

278

280

276

250

200

150

Q1-19Q2-19Q3-19Q4-19Q1-20Q2-20Q3-20Q4-20Q1-21Q2-21

Chart 3: GP/shipment (EUR) - Air freight

600

569

550

500

450

414

416

400

382

390

350

315

308

307

300

279

282

250

200

150

Q1-19Q2-19Q3-19Q4-19Q1-20Q2-20Q3-20Q4-20Q1-21Q2-21

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

keplercheuvreux.com 2

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2021-09-02 07:58:35

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR65.00

Remarkably, the level of gross profit recorded in H1 stands significantly above the levels of 2019, pre-Covid times. Both strong volume and prices have allowed that to happen.

Chart 4: Volume of goods shipped

140,000

131,991

120,000

100,098

103,087

100,000

80,000

60,000

40,000

29,165

25,503

31,216

20,000

0

H1-19

H1-20

H1-21

T (air freight)

TEU (ocean freight)

Chart 5: Gross profit (EURm)

30.0

27.1

25.0

20.0

16.0

16.1

15.5

15.0

11.6

12.8

10.0

5.0

0.0

H1-19

H1-20

H1-21

GP air freight

GP ocean freight

Source: Kepler CheuvreuxSource: Kepler Cheuvreux

Estimates upgrade

Reported GP in Q2 came in 23% above our estimates. We upgrade our EBIT estimates by 94% for 2021E and 24% for 2022E.

We have raised estimates on more bullish anticipations on the development of freight rates and demand. Based on the statements of Clasquin and CEOs of top global freight forwarders, there is a positive outlook for demand to remain strong at least until Q2-2022 and the Chinese New Year. Also, the normalisation on the front of freight rates seems unlikely to come soon, as conditions in the global supply chain remains tight to this day. The ocean freight rates have continued to rise in July and August, thus suggesting a solid third quarter (chart 1).

We now expect a gross profit of EUR99m this year (+30% YOY), 15% above our previous estimates.

We forecast EBIT of EUR20m this year, twice last year's EBIT after factoring in a notable 20% increase in opex based on: 1) the increasing variable remuneration of employees linked to record profits; 2) the hiring of new people to handle the sharp increase in demand; 3) a longer time required for the processing of operations amid volatile market conditions; and 4) the increase in variable costs, such as software costs, in relation with a higher number of operations.

In 2022, we conservatively assume a decline in gross profit (-4% YOY) as we model a gradual normalisation of unit margins in both air and ocean freight (respectively -10% and -7.5%), partly offset by a growth in volume (+3.8% in line with the long-term average of the growth of the global world trade). From 2023, we assume a return to a more normative 13% EBIT margin.

Table 2: Estimates

EURm

new estimates

former estimates

change in estimates

2021E

2022E

2023E

2021E

2022E

2023E

2021E

2022E

2023E

Gross profit

98.9

95.4

96.2

85.7

91.5

96.4

15%

4%

0%

YOY change

30%

-4%

1%

13%

7%

5%

EBITDA

27.5

21.7

20.1

15.6

17.2

18.6

76%

26%

8%

% of GP

28%

23%

21%

18%

19%

19%

EBIT

20.0

14.1

12.4

10.3

11.3

12.4

94%

24%

0%

% of GP

20%

15%

13%

12%

12%

13%

Net profit

11.2

7.4

6.3

4.5

5.0

5.5

149%

48%

15%

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

TP raised to EUR65

We derive our target price from a standard DCF valuation based on a ten-year explicit period. We use the following parameters: 1) 7.4% WACC; 2) 3.4% terminal growth rate; 3) 13.4% long-term EBIT conversion ratio. We provide a sensitivity table (overleaf).

keplercheuvreux.com 3

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2021-09-02 07:58:35

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR65.00

Table 3: Sensitivity table

Terminal growth

EBIT margin

2.4%

3.4%

4.4%

12.4%

13.4%

14.4%

WACC

7.9%

46.9

55.8

70.0

WACC

7.9%

52.0

55.8

59.7

7.6%

49.9

60.0

76.6

7.6%

55.9

60.1

64.2

7.4%

53.2

64.8

84.3

7.4%

60.3

64.8

69.3

7.1%

57.0

70.3

93.6

7.1%

65.4

70.3

75.3

6.8%

61.1

76.5

104.6

6.8%

71.1

76.5

81.9

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux

keplercheuvreux.com 4

This document is being provided for the exclusive use of Baptiste DE LEUDEVILLE - Kepler Cheuvreux - generated at 2021-09-02 07:58:35

Clasquin Buy | Target Price: EUR65.00

Company description

Clasquin is an air and sea freight forwarder with a focus on Asia/Europe, Asia/US and Europe/Latam flows. Thanks to external growth operation managed in 2008 Clasquin also operates road transport and logistics in France under the name Gueppe-Clasquin.

Management

Yves Revol, CEO

Philippe Lons, CFO

Key shareholders

Yves Revol

47.20%

Zenlor

6.60%

Staff

7.80%

Others

1.80%

Key data charts

Price performance

Sales split by region

60

France

55

10.7%

50

45

EMEA

40

24.9%

54.8%

35

Asia Pacific

30

25

9.6%

Sep 20

Mar 21

Sep 21

America

Price

DJ Stoxx 600 (rebased)

Sales split by division

Air

3%

8%

Sea

9%

36%

RO/RO

Other overseas

44%

activities

Other

FCF

25.0

20.0%

20.0

15.0%

15.0

10.0%

10.0

5.0

5.0%

0.0

0.0%

-5.0

-5.0%

16

17

18

19

20

21E

22E

23E

Att. FCF (m) (LHS)

Att. FCF Yield

Sales and EBITDA margin

FCF and Capex to sales

600.0

Sales-CAGR3Y based on last est.:8.08%

6.0%

5%

2%

500.0

5.0%

4%

1%

3%

1%

400.0

4.0%

1%

2%

300.0

3.0%

1%

1%

1%

200.0

2.0%

0%

0%

100.0

1.0%

-1%

0%

0.0

0.0%

-2%

0%

16

17

18

19

20

21E

22E

23E

16

17

18

19

20

21E

22E

23E

Sales (m) (LHS)

EBITDA margin

FCF to sales (LHS)

Capex to sales

SWOT analysis

  • Strengths

 International integrated network (US, Europe, Asia).

 Differentiated profile (family-owned business, medium-sizecompany).

 Diversified and balanced customer base (first customer <3% of GP).

 Strong presence in China.

  • Weaknesses

 Limited presence in the US.

 Lower volume shipped, GP/volume, and conversion rate than competitors.

Opportunities

Threats



Development of niche expertise /verticals (e.g. wine, fine



Slowing worldwide trade (2018-19).



arts).



High volatility of sea freight rates

New TMS deployed (2018) to boost productivity in the

medium term



Broadening of offering (overseas logistics, consulting, etc.).

keplercheuvreux.com 5

This is an excerpt of the original content. To continue reading it, access the original document here.

Disclaimer

Clasquin SA published this content on 03 September 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 03 September 2021 10:01:09 UTC.


© Publicnow 2021
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More recommendations
Financials
Sales 2021 425 M 495 M 495 M
Net income 2021 12,1 M 14,1 M 14,1 M
Net Debt 2021 36,2 M 42,2 M 42,2 M
P/E ratio 2021 12,8x
Yield 2021 1,95%
Capitalization 153 M 178 M 178 M
EV / Sales 2021 0,44x
EV / Sales 2022 0,35x
Nbr of Employees 925
Free-Float 36,5%
Chart CLASQUIN
Duration : Period :
CLASQUIN Technical Analysis Chart | MarketScreener
Full-screen chart
Technical analysis trends CLASQUIN
Short TermMid-TermLong Term
TrendsBullishBullishBullish
Income Statement Evolution
Consensus
Sell
Buy
Mean consensus BUY
Number of Analysts 2
Last Close Price 66,80 €
Average target price 73,50 €
Spread / Average Target 10,0%
EPS Revisions
Managers and Directors
Hugues Morin Group Chief Executive Officer, MD & Director
Philippe Lons Chief Financial Officer, Director & Deputy MD
Yves Revol Executive Chairman
Frederic Serra Group Chief Information Officer
Benoit Comte Chief Operating Officer-France South
Sector and Competitors