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    CBK   DE000CBK1001

COMMERZBANK AG

(CBK)
  Report
Real-time Estimate Tradegate  -  12:27 2022-09-28 pm EDT
7.303 EUR   -3.35%
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Dollar gains as markets reassess Fed rate hike bets

08/12/2022 | 04:22am EDT

* Dollar index up, yen down vs dollar

* Fed speakers maintain case for tightening monetary policy

* UK GDP shrinks less than expected

LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher in early London trading on Friday, after hawkish comments from U.S. Federal Reserve officials pushed against the idea this week’s U.S. inflation data could prompt the central bank to slow down policy tightening.

The U.S. inflation data was lower than expected, boosting riskier assets such as equities and weakening the dollar, as markets interpreted it as an indication the Fed could be less aggressive in rate hikes.

But Fed officials made clear they would continue to tighten monetary policy. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Thursday she was open to the possibility of another 75 basis point (bp) hike in September to fight too-high inflation.

At 0744 GMT, the dollar index was up 0.2% on the day at 105.28, after four days of losses that have put it on track for a weekly decline of 1.2%.

The Japanese yen lost out to the dollar strength, with the dollar up 0.3% against the yen at 133.345.

Traders were pricing in around a 38.5% chance of a 75 bps Fed rate hike in September and a 61.5% chance of 50 bps.

"We think it will take far more evidence of slowing core inflation to temper Fed tightening," said Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC, in a note to clients.

"Inflation is also a global problem not just a US one, and so global growth and inflation dynamics will also drive the USD," he said.

"The likes of the ECB (European Central Bank) and the BoE (Bank of England) may still find it hard to match market pricing for rate hikes, creating downside pressures for EUR and GBP."

The British pound was down 0.3% at $1.2175, having shown no reaction to data revealing UK GDP contracted by less than feared in June, even though an extra public holiday had been expected to cause a big drag.

The euro was down 0.2% at $1.0295. French inflation was up 6.8% year-on-year in July, while for Spain the figure was 10.8%, the highest since 1984, data showed.

The euro has been weighed down by Europe's struggles with the war in Ukraine, the hunt for non-Russian energy sources, and a hit to the German economy from scant rainfall. In the latest troubles, low water levels on the Rhine, Germany's commercial artery, have disrupted shipping and pushed freight costs up more than five-fold.

Commerzbank said in a note to clients it had revised its euro-dollar forecast lower, as it expects a euro-area recession as a base scenario, having previously been a "risk scenario". Commerzbank expects the euro to fall to $0.98 in December and not recover until later in 2023.

Inflation in Sweden eased to 8% year-on-year in July, which ING's global head of markets Chris Turner said in a note to clients may lessen expectations for a massive Riksbank rate hike in September.

"After a good run in July, we doubt the Swedish krona pushes on too much further against the euro," Turner added.

The New Zealand dollar was lifted by expectations of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate rise next week.

(Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft Editing by Mark Potter)


© Reuters 2022
Stocks mentioned in the article
ChangeLast1st jan.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / BRITISH POUND (AUD/GBP) 0.03% 0.59963 Delayed Quote.12.03%
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / EURO (AUD/EUR) 0.19% 0.67166 Delayed Quote.5.33%
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN (AUD/JPY) 0.87% 93.92 Delayed Quote.11.88%
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (AUD/NZD) -0.13% 1.14119 Delayed Quote.7.67%
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR (AUD/USD) 1.33% 0.65197 Delayed Quote.-10.87%
BRITISH POUND / EURO (GBP/EUR) 0.15% 1.11955 Delayed Quote.-5.98%
BRITISH POUND / JAPANESE YEN (GBP/JPY) 0.83% 156.506 Delayed Quote.-0.15%
BRITISH POUND / NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (GBP/NZD) -0.19% 1.90108 Delayed Quote.-3.93%
BRITISH POUND / US DOLLAR (GBP/USD) 1.26% 1.08622 Delayed Quote.-20.44%
CANADIAN DOLLAR / BRITISH POUND (CAD/GBP) -0.52% 0.675826 Delayed Quote.15.79%
CANADIAN DOLLAR / EURO (CAD/EUR) -0.38% 0.756367 Delayed Quote.8.86%
CANADIAN DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN (CAD/JPY) 0.27% 105.71 Delayed Quote.15.68%
CANADIAN DOLLAR / US DOLLAR (CAD/USD) 0.66% 0.7334 Delayed Quote.0.00%
COMMERZBANK AG -3.71% 7.276 Delayed Quote.12.96%
DOW JONES FXCM DOLLAR INDEX -0.37% 13459.66 Real-time Quote.11.07%
EURO / BRITISH POUND (EUR/GBP) -0.15% 0.8933 Delayed Quote.6.34%
EURO / JAPANESE YEN (EUR/JPY) 0.68% 139.82 Delayed Quote.6.21%
EURO / NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (EUR/NZD) -0.35% 1.69837 Delayed Quote.2.19%
EURO / US DOLLAR (EUR/USD) 1.11% 0.97041 Delayed Quote.-15.60%
INDIAN RUPEE / BRITISH POUND (INR/GBP) -0.70% 0.011327 Delayed Quote.15.62%
INDIAN RUPEE / EURO (INR/EUR) -0.82% 0.012654 Delayed Quote.8.09%
INDIAN RUPEE / JAPANESE YEN (INR/JPY) -0.31% 1.767097 Delayed Quote.14.77%
INDIAN RUPEE / US DOLLAR (INR/USD) 0.11% 0.012253 Delayed Quote.-8.75%
JAPANESE YEN / SWISS FRANC (JPY/CHF) -1.26% 0.6759 Delayed Quote.-13.39%
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN (NZD/JPY) 1.05% 82.318 Delayed Quote.3.94%
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR / US DOLLAR (NZD/USD) 1.48% 0.57133 Delayed Quote.-17.14%
PAX DOLLAR (USDP/USD) 0.07% 0.9997 End-of-day quote.-0.02%
US DOLLAR / BRITISH POUND (USD/GBP) -1.22% 0.92081 Delayed Quote.25.64%
US DOLLAR / EURO (USD/EUR) -1.09% 1.030492 Delayed Quote.18.19%
US DOLLAR / JAPANESE YEN (USD/JPY) -0.44% 144.08 Delayed Quote.25.55%
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Analyst Recommendations on COMMERZBANK AG
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Financials
Sales 2022 9 449 M 9 112 M 9 112 M
Net income 2022 1 038 M 1 001 M 1 001 M
Net Debt 2022 - - -
P/E ratio 2022 9,48x
Yield 2022 2,75%
Capitalization 9 463 M 9 083 M 9 125 M
Capi. / Sales 2022 1,00x
Capi. / Sales 2023 0,99x
Nbr of Employees 38 465
Free-Float 84,4%
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Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 17
Last Close Price 7,56 €
Average target price 9,25 €
Spread / Average Target 22,4%
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Managers and Directors
Manfred Knof Chief Executive Officer
Bettina Orlopp Deputy Chairman-Supervisory Board & CFO
Helmut Gottschalk Member-Supervisory Board
Dennis Bartel Head-Human Resources & Technology
Bernd Reh Head-Research & Press Contact
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