He expects eight to ten newcomers in the German Prime Standard segment, predicts Jens Hecht, Partner at the consultancy firm Kirchhoff. That would be a doubling compared to last year. "Potential candidates include the energy start-up 1Komma5 and the Berlin fintech Raisin."
The experts from the commercial law firm Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton also include Stada, Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems and the armaments group KNDS. In addition, an IPO currently seems to be the more likely option for the planned exit of the German government from gas trader Uniper. A debut of the German electricity grid business of the Dutch operator Tennet was also considered possible.
Investment bankers and advisors justify their optimism with the positive stock market environment, among other things. The leading German index, the Dax, recently broke through the 20,000 point mark for the first time. The experts are also hoping that the future German government will ease the burden on companies and consumers.
IPOS AND POLITICS
Lucrative share sales in the context of IPOs would provide financial investors and venture capitalists with fresh money, which they can then invest in established companies or start-ups. This has been lacking in recent months. Fresh capital injections are particularly important for up-and-coming technology companies so that Germany can have a say in promising fields such as artificial intelligence (AI) or quantum computing.
The experts at law firm Cleary Gottlieb are also predicting more takeovers of German companies in the USA due to the deregulation planned by future US President Donald Trump and the threat of import tariffs. This applies in particular to listed companies that could increase their market capitalization through US growth.
In return, however, there are also options for foreign investors in Germany, they emphasize: "Companies in the manufacturing sectors in particular, especially in the automotive industry, the chemical sector and mechanical engineering, must realign themselves in order to get to grips with digitalization trends and the energy transition." Otherwise they would quickly become takeover candidates themselves. Further tailwind for such transactions would be provided by falling interest rates and the growing willingness of banks to provide more loans for takeovers again.
According to a survey of industry experts conducted by Handelsblatt, the number of takeovers and mergers could increase by at least 20 percent in 2025. The respondents expected around 40 deals worth more than one billion euros. Both companies and financial investors are preparing transactions. One reason for this is the financing environment, which has improved and is likely to continue to improve as a result of the ECB's interest rate cuts. Added to this is the necessary transformation of many sectors due to digitalization and high energy costs.
RECOVERY AT A LOW LEVEL
However, the low basis for comparison favors the optimistic forecasts: Last year, the placement volume of the four IPOs in the Prime Standard amounted to a total of 1.5 billion euros, calculates consultancy firm Kirchhoff. This is the second-lowest figure in the past ten years. Around half of this sum was accounted for by the debut of the Douglas perfumery chain.
"The year 2024 was also characterized by restraint in terms of capital increases," emphasizes the management consultancy PwC in its study "Issuance Market Germany". The volume slumped by 80% to 569 million euros compared to the previous year's already low figure.
The law firm Cleary Gottlieb draws a similar conclusion for the takeover and merger business. However, a relatively small number of transactions were offset by several billion-euro deals, such as the takeovers of the biotech company Morphosys or the chemicals group Covestro.
(Edited by Thomas Seythal and Sabine Wollrab. If you have any questions, please contact our editorial team at berlin.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for politics and the economy) or frankfurt.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for companies and markets).