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MarketScreener Homepage  >  Equities  >  Xetra  >  Deutsche Post AG    DPW   DE0005552004

DEUTSCHE POST AG

(DPW)
  Report
Delayed Quote. Delayed Xetra - 01/15 11:41:35 am
42.7 EUR   -2.06%
01/14DEUTSCHE POST AG : Bernstein gives a Buy rating
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01/14DEUTSCHE POST AG : Receives a Buy rating from JP Morgan
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01/14DEUTSCHE POST AG : Warburg Research sticks Neutral
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SummaryMost relevantAll NewsPress ReleasesOfficial PublicationsSector newsMarketScreener StrategiesAnalyst Recommendations

Deutsche Post : CEO Virtual Roadshow (Europe), 26 November 2020

11/30/2020 | 03:41am EST

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE

Tim Scharwath, CEO DHL Global Forwarding, Freight December 1st, 2020

Content

DPDHL Group Highlights

Page 3

Strategy 2025

Page 13

Divisional Deep-Dives

P&P (page 20), DHL Express (page 25), DGFF (page 33), DSC (page 40), DeCS (page 48)

Financial Backup

Page 52

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

Content

DPDHL Group Highlights

Page 3

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

3

GROUP REVENUE, Q3 2020

€16,244m yoy: +€692m (+4.4%)

+622

+14.6%

Divisional

+252

+125

+26.1%

revenue

+36

+3.4%

growth yoy

+1.0%

-8.6%

in €m

-290

P&P Germany

DHL Express

DHL Global

DHL Supply Chain

DHL eCommerce

Forwarding, Freight

Solutions

Organic Growth

Group: +9.0%

+3.4%

+21.2%

+5.2%

-1.9%

+31.2%

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

4

GROUP EBIT, Q3 2020

€1,377m yoy: +€435m (+46.2%)

in €m

P&P Germany

320

+5.3%

2019: €304m

EBIT increase mainly driven by e-commerce related parcel growth, cost containment and yield measures

EBIT includes €-42mone-time payment (as part of multi-year wage agreement) & €-51m special bonus

DHL Express

753

+65.9%

2019: €454m

All major regions back to growth, reflecting continued B2C strength and B2B recovery

Well-balanced growth allowed highly efficient network utilization and profitability

EBIT includes €-33m special bonus

DGFF

155

+25.0%

2019: €124m

Air Freight GP remains strong due to tight market, although less

pronounced vs Q2

GP-EBIT conversion supported by strong cost focus

EBIT includes €-13m

special bonus

DSC

111

-31.5%

2019: €162m

EBIT recovering from Q2 as customer sites gradually ramp back up

EBIT includes €-52m special bonus

2019 One-offs: €-8m net impact from restructuring

DeCS

76

>100%

2019: €6m

Significant e-commerce growth led to higher network utilization and profitability across international parcel portfolio.

EBIT includes €-10m special bonus

2019 One-offs: €-4m restructuring

Corp. Func. / Cons.

-38

+64.8%

2019: €-108m

StreetScooter

Q3 2020: €18m incl. €42m revaluation impact. Q3 2019: €-23m

EBIT includes €-4m special bonus

2019 One-offs: €+16m pension revaluation, €-6m restructuring

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

5

2020 performance shows benefit of diversified Group structure, e-commerce focus & ongoing self-help benefit

High

Growth

Low

Strong

E-commerce

related*

Strong

E-

DHL

Supply

Chain

Post

EBIT Margin

12-months rolling

B2B

10,0%

Express

8,0%

DGFF

5,3%

3,3%

2,4%

12,8% Express

9,0% P&P

6,4% GROUP

3,8% DGFF 3,6% DSC

1,6% DeCS

LowExposure to GDPHighQ3 2014-0,7%

(Q4 2018)

9M 2020 revenues

*B2C Express, Parcel Germany and DHL eCommerce Solutions

EBIT Margin: DSC adjusted for 2019 one-offs, DGFF for NFE write-down in 2015

Until 2017: P&P values includes business activities which are now under DeCS

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

Q3 2020

6

Strong balance sheet and liquidity position

1.7x

Net Debt / EBITDA

(31.12.2019)

Leases

10,301

7.812

Related to multi- year commitment on operating assets

3,066

in €m

Net Debt

EBITDA

LIQUIDITY

No financial covenants on bonds and syndicated credit facility

€4.3bn

€2.0bn

>€1.3bn

Cash & cash

Syndicated credit facility

Bilateral credit

equivalents (30.09.20)

runs until 2025 (undrawn)

lines (undrawn)

Maturity Profile, Senior Bonds

Average time to maturity 5.4 years

€m

€300m

Rest of Year 2020

750

maturities

on financial

liabilities

300

750

500

500

700

0

500

500

750

750

0

0

750

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

New bonds issued on May 13th 2020

Coupons: 0.375% (6-year), 0.75% (9-year), 1% (12-year)

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

7

Shareholder Returns defined by Finance Policy; 2020 dividend continuity assured

Dividend of €1.15 paid for FY 2019, stable yoy

€1,15

€1,15

€1,15

€0,80

€0,85

€0,85

€1,05

€0,65

€0,70

€0,70

60%

59%

58%

53%

55%

55%

49%

50%

46%

48%

52%

40%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Underlying Payout Ratio 1)

Dividend payment of €1.4bn to DPDHL shareholders approved at AGM on Aug 27th - paid on Sep 1st.

1) Adjusted for non-recurring items when applicable

FINANCE POLICY

  • Target / maintain rating BBB+
  • Dividend payout ratio to remain between 40-60% of net profit (continuity and Cash Flow performance considered)
  • Excess liquidity will be used for share buybacks and/or extraordinary dividends

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

8

2020 EBIT Guidance - unchanged as updated on Oct 7th 2020 FCF guidance increased to >€2.0bn

in € bn

EBIT

2020

Group

4.1-4.4

P&P

~1.5

DHL

3.3-3.6

Corp. Functions

~-0.7

Reported EBIT includes:

  • €-262mrelated to special bonus payment (Q3, €-163m) & asset impairments (Q2, €-99m)
  • One-timecosts related to non-core business (StreetScooter, ~ €-350m)

2020

FCF

>2.0 (from >1.8)

Gross Capex

~2.9

(excl. leases)

Tax Rate

22-24%

FCF and Capex guidance includes ~ €300m Express intercontinental fleet renewal (B777) and €-163mone-time bonus payment

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

9

2020 Guidance: What is factored in

GROUP EBIT guidance: €4.1-4.4bn,including

- €-99m asset impairments (Q2 2020)

- €-163mone-time bonus payment (Q3 2020)

- ~ €-350m StreetScooter

4,712-5,012

-262

4,100-4,400

4.128

4.048

+664-964

-350

-80

+16-24%

growth

FY 2019

2019 One-offs& 2019 excl. One-offs

2020e Operating

2020e excl.

2020e

2020e

FY 2020e

Reported EBIT

StreetScooter*

& StreetScooter

Performance

One-offs &

One-offs**

StreetScooter

Reported EBIT

StreetScooter

*2019 One-offs: €+426m DSC China disposal, €-151m DSC restructuring costs, €-80m DeCS restructuring costs, €-115m StreetScooter

**2020 One-offs:€-163m special bonus payment (Q3); €-99m asset impairments triggered by lockdown (Q2)

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

10

2022 Guidance: Confirmed as updated on July 7th, 2020

Post-Covid Recovery

2022 EBIT

V-shape

> €5.3bn

U-shape

~ €5.1bn

2020-22 cumulative

FCF€5.0 - 6.0bn

Gross Capex

€8.5 - 9.5bn

(excl. leases)

L-shape

~ €4.7bn

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

11

Deutsche Post DHL Group

Investment Case Summary

EARNINGS

CASH FLOW

SHAREHOLDERS'

RETURN

Sustainable growth from

Continued investments for

diversified global market

Long-term Finance Policy

profitable growth

leader

defining sustainable

Strong balance sheet and

Clear agenda for

shareholder returns

cash generation

improving profitability

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

12

Content

Strategy 2025

Page 13

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

13

STRATEGY 2025: OUR POWERFUL

COMPASS WILL NAVIGATE US THROUGH ANY SCENARIO

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

14

2019 summary: Significant progress along all 3 bottom lines, as well as on sustainability targets

EMPLOYER OF CHOICE

PROVIDER OF CHOICE

Employee Engagement at record

Ensuring continuous operations to keep

level: Group score at 82 (2019: 77)

customer supply chains running

Supporting customers across sectors in

ramping up their e-commerce capabilities

DHL Express

#2 World's Best Workplaces 2020

INVESTMENT OF CHOICE

On track to achieve record Group EBIT with guidance of €4.1bn-€4.4bn

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

15

Broad range of e-commerce offerings across the Group

Domestic delivery

Germany

P&P Germany

Cross-Border delivery

International

Deferred

Premium TDI

DHL eCommerce Solutions

DHL Express

>40%

Parcel Market Share

>5m

Parcels per day (2019)

>100k

Parcel Business customers

>6,000

Parcel Lockers

* On-Demand-Delivery

11

Focus

Countries with own domestic

Non-TDIcross-border

delivery to/from and within

parcel delivery, t/o 7 in Europe

Europe

(UK, NL, SE, PL, CZ, ES, PT)

~4m

European

destinations served through

Domestic parcels per day

Parcel Connect platform - via

own delivery and partners

eFulfillment

DHL Supply Chain

~50%

~30k

Growth in eCommerce new

Employees active in eCommerce

business signings

operations globally

~1m

TDI shipments/Day

40%+

Express B2C Share

220+

countries & territories served with pick-

up and delivery

ODD*

B2C-adapted recipient tool

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

16

What does it take to deliver 10bn vaccine doses worldwide?

Starting from Q4 2020 vaccines for emergency use are expected to be shipped around the globe; Emerging actors like governments and NGOs face similar challenges in orchestrating vaccine distribution as for PPE - yet the stakes are even higher.

10+ bn

7.8 bn

~70%

~1.8

vaccines needed

200,000

Movements by pallet

shippers

global population

15,000,000

Deliveries in cooling boxes

immunization in population to achieve herd immunity

15,000

avg. doses/person needed for

Flights

immunization

Download the White Paper

Source: World Bank; DHL; McKinsey

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

17

DIGITALIZATION @DPDHL GROUP

As seen at IR Virtual Tutorial…

DGF myDHLi

DSC Accelerated Digitalization

Data Analytics

Operational

Routing

Product Classification

Volume Prediction

Optimization

for Customs

Staff Scheduling

Geocoding

Invoice

Overdue Risk

Further ongoing initiatives

Packstation expansion: 7000 by 2021

Postal mail notification

Parcel delivery: 15min notification & live tracking

Mobile stamps

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

18

Content

Divisional Deep-Dives

P&P (page 20), DHL Express (page 25), DGFF (page 33), DSC (page 40), DeCS (page 48)

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

19

P&P Germany: THE Post and Parcel company for Germany

The Profitable Core

Transporting, sorting and delivering documents and goods-carrying shipments in Germany and export.

Revenue Mix

Market Position

(%, FY 2019)

(2019)

Parcel

~62% Market Share for Mail

32%

(business customers)

>40% Market Share for

Mail

Parcel

53%

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

20

P&P Germany: Parcel growth and yield measures continued to offset mail volume decline

Q3 2020

Volume

Revenue

yoy

Mail Communication

-5.6%

-2.4%

Dialogue Marketing

-12.5%

-12.3%

Parcel Germany

+11.6%

+17.1%

  • Mail volumes slowly recovering from Q2 decline but still below normal trend at -9.4% yoy in Q3 (from -16.8% yoy in Q2)
  • Parcel growth remains well above trend as our network supports accelerated e-commerce growth across all customer segments in Germany
  • Revenue development continued to be supported by yield measures in mail and parcel

Parcel Germany revenue growth

by business customer segment (Q3 2020, yoy)

Top accounts (~320 customers)

+8%

Middle accounts (~16,000 customers)

+24%

Small accounts (~83,000 customers)

+32%

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

21

P&P Germany: Products and Pricing

P&P revenue

FY19: €15.5bn

Mail Communication €5.3bn

Dialogue Marketing €2.1bn

International €2.2bn

Other €0.9bn

Parcel Germany €4.8bn

Ex-anteproducts - private customers

Partial services - business customers

Addressed and undressed advertisement mailings, campaigns (both digital & physical)

In- and outbound Germany shipments

Press, pension services, retail

Top accounts (~330 customers)

Business

customers Middle accounts (~18k customers) Small accounts (~85k customers)

Private customers

Pricing

Jul 2019: 10.6% increase for 2019-2021 period (incl. international)

2019: No increase, 2020: 3-4% through reduction of discounts

Partially increased in 2019-2020

Depends on the product category: Partially increased in 2019-2020

Partially increased in 2019-2020

Pricing varies by contracts.

Stronger price increase than historically.

Next increase: January 1st 2021.

Listed prices in retail outlets and online

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

22

P&P Germany: Update on wage agreement

On September 23rd, we reached an agreement with the labor union, providing 2+ years visibility for business planning and ~140,000 Deutsche Post tariff employees in Germany

Wage increase

3% increase from Jan 2021. 2% increase from Jan 2022

Additional one-time payment

Overall €42m EBIT impact on P&P Germany booked in September

Contract period

September 1st 2020 until December 31st 2022

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

23

EBIT 2020

Guidance: €1.5bn

P&P GERMANY FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

Mid-term: Slow topline growth. Stable EBIT margin at ~10%

Structural trend:

Mail: -2% to -3% p.a.

Volume Parcel: +5% to +7% p.a.

Stronger Parcel growth and Mail decline seen in 2020. Expect growth rates to trend back to initial assumptions over time

Capex: €500-600m p.a. for 2020e-22e

Wage increase for tariff employees: 3% from Jan 1st 2021 and 2% from Jan 1st 2022.

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

24

DHL Express: Experts in Export and Import

The Profitable Core

Revenue Mix1)

(€bn, FY 2019)

Time Definite International

TDI

77%

(TDI) service for premium,

cross-border delivery of

DDI & TDD

10%

time-critical parcels and

documents

ACS & Others

13%

1) TDI: Time-Definite International, DDI: Day-Definite International,

TDD: Time-Definite Domestic, ACS: Air Capacity Sales & Other

Products & Services

Global TDI market 2)

(2016)

Others

In 2014: 10%

11,0%

UPS

DHL

38,0% In 2014: 35%

In 2014: 23% 22,0%

FedEx

29,0%

In 2014: 32%

(26% FedEx/6% TNT)

24% FedEx /

5% TNT

  1. Source: Market Intelligence 2017, annual reports

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

25

Express TDI shipments per day in major regions, yoy growth

Q3 showed solid growth across major regions…

Q3 2020

24,7%

18,6%

11,2%

Asia Pacific

Europe

Americas

Q32020

Global: +15.8%

…vs. unbalanced regional development in H1

Q1 2020

8,3%

Global

+0.6%

1,5%

-0,8%

Q12020

Asia Pacific

Americas

Europe

Q2 2020

8,9%

Global

-0.2%

-3,2%

-2,7%

Asia Pacific

Europe

Americas

Q2 2020

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

26

Express TDI volume growth, quarterly growth ranking

#1

EU

AM

AM

EU

EU

MEA

MEA

MEA

AM

EU

MEA

EU

MEA

EU

EU

AM

AM

AP

AM

#2

AM

EU

EU

AM

MEA

EU

AM

AM

MEA

MEA

EU

AM

EU

MEA

AM

EU

EU

AM

MEA

#3

AP

AP

MEA

MEA

AM

AM

EU

EU

EU

AM

AP

AP

AP

AM

AP

AP

AP

EU

AP

#4

MEA

MEA

AP

AP

AP

AP

AP

AP

AP

AP

AM

MEA

AM

AP

MEA

MEA

MEA

MEA

EU

763

820

770

880

825

890

863

978

904

964

908

1.044

949

1.027

962

1.100

955

1.025

1.114

Q3 yoy: +15.8%

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

FY 2016: +7.6%

FY 2017: +9.9%

FY 2018: +7.5%

FY 2019: +5.7%

9M 2020: +5.5%

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

27

E-commerce is a profitable growth driver for DHL Express

2013

2019

Q3 2020

B2C

30%

45%+

volume

10%

Share

EBIT

9%

12%

15.5%

margin

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER

Network

B2C

Profitability

Characteristics

Characteristics

Impact

Shipments

Volume growth drives better

per Day

utilization of existing network

Weight per

Lower weight per shipment

Shipment

Revenue

Higher RpK related to lower WpS

per Kilo

First mile

More pieces per stop at pickup

Hub sort

Better utilization of existing

infrastructure, with high degree

Airlift

Better utilization of existing capacity,

with lower WpS being advantageous

Optimize residential delivery via On

Last Mile

Demand Delivery & Drop Off Locations

and increased delivery density due to

B2C Growth

Express e-commerce growth driven by B2C acceleration in many industries

Volume growth TDI, YTD SEPTEMBER 2020

+47%

+30%

+37%

+47%

+32%

-12%

+46%

Retail

Fashion

Consumables Technology

Services

Finance

Life Science &

Healthcare

B2B TDI revenue share

B2C/e-commerce TDI revenue share

X% B2C YoY TDI revenue growth

EXAMPLE

PRODUCTS &

CUSTOMERS

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

B2C e-commerce is managed by DHL Express as another TDI vertical and has actually become its fastest growing vertical

B2C remains a profitable growth driver through

disciplined focus on premium cross-border flows and yield measures

Structural acceleration in 2020 has further enlarged

the scope of industries and customers using DHL

Express for international e-commerce

29

To serve its Global network,

DHL Express runs more than just an airline

1 VIRTUAL GLOBAL AIRLINE

  • 17 own and partner airlines
  • More than 260 dedicated aircraft
  • Over 300 Commercial Air carriers
  • 2,500 daily flights

Dedicated fleet (w/o feeders)

2010: ~150 planes

2019: >200 planes

Owned

Lease

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

30

Our Global Aviation Network

Snapshot of DHL network flights on 2nd September 2020

Intercon Network

Regional Networks

• more than 260 dedicated aircraft

• more than 700 daily network flights

> 40 Intercontinental

• more than 27 k tons capacity / day

> 60 North America > 20 Latin America

> 100 Europe

> 20 Middle East & Africa > 20 Asia Pacific

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

31

EXPRESS FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

Continued growth of absolute EBIT

Continued, but more incremental margin expansion

TDI

Structural trend: +4% to +5%.

Volume

Volatile in 2020. Expect growth rates to

Growth

trend back to initial assumptions over

time

Excl. current replacement order for Boeing 777s, Capex flat of ~€1bn.

B777 Capex: €180m (2018); €1.1bn (2019), ~€300m (2020e), <€300m (2021e)

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

32

DGFF: The foundation for further success has been laid

The Profitable Core

International transportation of Air Freight, Ocean Freight and Road Freight including Customs Clearance and related Value-added Services like warehousing, cargo insurance, etc.

Revenue Mix

(€bn, FY 2019)

4.9

Air

4.4

Road

3.5

Ocean

2.2

Other

Market Position

(2019)

#1 #2

Air Freight Ocean Freight

#2

European Road Freight

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

33

DGFF: Strong GP/unit and cost containment basis for strong Q3 development

Q3 2020

Air Freight

Ocean Freight

yoy

(AFR)

(OFR)

Volumes

-12.9%

-10.5%

Gross Profit

+8.8%

+3.6%

GP/EXP t ; GP/TEU

+25.0%

+15.8%

  • Volume development remains weak reflecting overall GDP and trade uncertainties
  • AFR gross profit continued to be well supported by tight market situation - focus on profitability drove GP increase in OFR through higher GP/TEU
  • Internal improvement process ongoing - independent of market movements, setting basis for structural GP-to-EBIT conversion increase which is in-line with Strategy 2025 targets

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

34

DGFF - Emerging new rivals do not pose imminent risk of disruption

Digital Capabilities

Digital Forwarders

Gaps to close

?

  • Back-endIT infrastructure
  • Own setup (physical) globally
  • Operational expertise
  • Global sales force
  • Carrier relationships

Incumbents

Gaps to close

  • Modern, fully-integrated IT infrastructure
  • Digital customer interaction tools

Global network

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

35

The lifecycle of a shipment is a complex process and technology investments are key to success

Quotation

process

Goods

to be shipped

Digital

analytic

tools

Billing

& payments

Take control

Create documents

Plan route

of goods from

Manage transport

for export compliance

& organize

Customer

& customs

to port/airport

Consolidation

shipment

App-based

IT System

App-based

Online

tracking tools

Upgrades

tracking tools

Quotation

Tools

IT System

App-based

Upgrades

IT System

tracking tools

Upgrades

Transport to warehouse

or final destination

Manage loading & export process

Real-time

tracking platform

Accept delivery at port/airport

Ensure goods are shipped

Ensure

shipment

stays on track

Manage documents for import compliance & customs process

Step in the lifecycle of a shipment

System or technology support

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

36

CargoWise1 Roll-out progressing very well

Benefit realization started

Ocean Freight

Air Freight

considered >70%

completed completed

Complete CargoWise1 roll-out by 2021

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

37

With IRR & Digital Customer Interaction DGF is enhancing customer experience while increasing operational efficiency

myDHLi

360° VISIBILITY

COLLABORATION

FULL ACCESS

MANAGED BY CUSTOMER

External

QUOTE + BOOK

TRACK

DOCUMENTS

ANALYTICS

IT Renewal Roadmap (IRR): Our Digital Backbone established

Internal

New TMS

Paperless

Quotation

Track + trace / shipment

Steering Logic

… and many more

forwarding

tool

visibility

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

38

DGFF FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

EBIT/GP Conversion improvement of 100-200 bps p.a. (with basis from 2018)

Long-term target: 30% DGF conversion. 5-6% DGFF

EBIT Margin

Initial* market growth assumptions (2018-25):Air Freight +1-3%

Ocean Freight: +2-4%

Road Freight: +3-4%

Market significant down in 2020. Return to initial assumption depending on recovery shape beyond 2020.

Capex: Flat / slightly increasing from FY 2018 levels (€110m)

Complete CargoWise1 roll-out by 2021. Ocean Freight considered completed. Air Freight >70% completed.

*as introduced at Capital Markets Day in 2019

39

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

DHL Supply Chain: Business Overview

The Profitable Core

  • We manage supply chains to reduce complexity for our customers.
  • Our profitable core includes warehousing, transportation as well as key solutions like LLP*, Service Logistics, packaging and e-commerce
  • We lead in innovation and sustainable solutions

Revenue Mix

(%, FY 2019)

Retail

29%

Consumer

24%

Auto-mobility

15%

Technology

14%

Life Sciences

9%

& Healthcare

E&M*

6%

Other

3%

Key Facts

  • World No.1 in contract logistics with 6 % of market share
  • Strong customer base built on long- lasting partnerships in more than 50 countries with >156,000 employees and ~2,000 sites globally

*E&M: Engineering & Manufacturing

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

40

DHL Supply Chain: Solutions Overview

Offering Customized Solutions Across the Entire Supply Chain

Revenue by Service Area

FY 2019

WarehousingTransportation

37%

56%

7%

Value Added

Services

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

41

DHL Supply Chain: Improved dynamics in customer activities

DSC sectors with the strongest recovery vs. Q2

Q2 2020 Revenue growth yoy

Q3 2020 Revenue growth yoy

-8,6%

-16,6%

DHL Supply Chain

Auto-mobility

Engineering &

Retail

Manufacturing

DSC business activity and volumes recovering from Q2 but some volume impact in selected sectors remains

  • Business activity is recovering as operations, which were closed due to government or customer restrictions, are re- opened; volumes recover on most sites
  • DSC revenue and EBIT development recovering from Q2, however revenue is still impacted by weakness mainly in Auto-mobility sector
  • DSC organic growth recovering to -1.9% in Q3 (from -13.1% in Q2), reflecting improved trading dynamics

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

42

DHL Supply Chain is uniquely positioned to cater for e-commerce growth

We manage supply chains to reduce complexity for our customers

Our profitable core is:

  • warehousing, transportation
  • LLP, Service Logistics, packaging and e-commerce

We lead in innovation and sustainable solutions

38% of new retail business is e-commerce and we are growing at a double digit rate

Pure e-commerce for brand manufacturers

Pure e-commerce retailers/ etailers, marketplaces

Omni-channel centralized and

combined B2C/ B2B fulfillment

Regional fulfillment networks across

multi user locations

… using state-of-the-art technologies

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

43

#ExecutionEdge: Standardization is key to success - DSC leverages a holistic Management System

Operations Management System First Choice (OMS FC)

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

44

DHL Supply Chain's digitalization agenda embraces all areas

CUSTOMER

OPERATIONS Accelerated Digitalization of key technologies and optimized asset utilization through predictive analytics

SUPPLYCHAIN

Receiving/ Put-away Storage

Picking

Packing

Dispatch/ Delivery

ANALYTICS

SUPPORT FUNCTIONS

Enable analytics &

Delight our

Intelligent Process Automation

optimize business

customers withSupporting Robots analytics

SmartOperations

Indoor Robotic

Inventory

Assisted

Wearable

Goods-To-

Robotic

Wrapping

Mgmt.

Picking

Person

Asset Tracking &

Transport

Devices

Arms

Robots

Robots

Robots

Robots

Monitoring

Optimization

Asset Tracking & Monitoring

of inventory

Algorithmic Optimization

management

Network

Volume

Inventory

Dynamic Task

Walking Distance

Opti-Carton

Estimated Time of

Planning

Forecast

Optimization

Optimization

Optimization

Analysis

Arrival (ETA) Prediction

support

IT

Predictive IT maintenance

Finance

Predictive cash flow optimization

HR

Increase staff engagement & retention

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

45

DSC has defined 12 focus technologies to accelerate deployment

Assisted Picking Robots

Goods-To-Person Robots

Wrapping Robots

Indoor Robotic Transport

Inventory Mgmt. Robots

Robotic Arms

SmartOperations

Wearable Devices

Intelligent Process

Algorithmic Optimization

Supporting Robots

Asset Tracking and

Automation

Monitoring

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

46

DSC FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

Maintain EBIT margin at ~5%

Initial* market growth assumptions (2018-25):Revenue growth of ~4% p.a

Distorted in 2020. Return to initial assumption depending on recovery shape beyond 2020

Capex outlook: Slightly increasing from FY 2018 levels (€282m) driven by new business wins

*as introduced at Capital Markets Day in 2019

47

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

DHL eCommerce Solutions: Business Overview

Going forward we focus on domestic and non-time-definite international parcel delivery - especially within Europe

The Profitable Core

Domestic last mile parcel delivery in selected countries outside of Germany (Europe, USA and selected Asian emerging markets)

Non-TDIcross-border services primarily to/from and within Europe.

Revenue Mix

(€bn, FY 2019)

14% Asia

29% Americas

57% Europe

We are not

  • driving a group-widee-commerce logistics global strategy
  • focusing on B2C only but also on B2B across all verticals
  • the testing environment anymore (e.g. eFulfillment or Parcel Metro)

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

48

DHL eCommerce Solutions: Focus on two value streams

Domestic last mile delivery

  • High quality delivery in own and partner-networks
  • Healthy mix of B2C and B2B across all verticals
  • Strong focus on yield and profitability

Non-TDIcross-border

  • Strong growth in cross border retail
  • Changing expectations on speed, visibility & quality
  • Primary focus to/from and intra
    Europe
  • Parcel Connect in Europe a strong and growing platform

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

49

DHL eCommerce Solutions

Q3 2020 Revenue Growth, yoy

>30% >40%

Q3 2020

Revenue Growth, yoy

NETHERLANDS

UNITED KINGDOM*

+26%

>50%

>30%

UNITED STATES

SOUTH EAST ASIA

*excl. Mail business

50

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

DeCS

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

Positive EBIT contribution in 2020 (9M 2020: €76m)

Mid-term:5-10%sales growth with gradual margin expansion towards 5% long-termmargin across all businesses

Average Capex spend of ~€200m p.a. over 2019- 2022

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

51

Content

Financial Backup

Page 52

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

DPDHL Group at a glance

DHL Global

DHL Supply Chain

DHL eCommerce

GROUP

P&P Germany

DHL Express

Forwarding,

Solutions

FY 2019

Freight

€63,341m

€15,484m

€17,101m

€15,128m

€13,436m

Revenue

€4,045m

EBIT

€4,128m

€1,230m

€2,039m

€521m

€912m

€-51m

EBIT Margin

6.5%

7.9%

11.9%

3.4%

4.7%*

FTEs

499,461

159,100

96,850

44,265

155,791

30,797

Network business

Network business

Brokerage -

Outsource -

Network business

- asset intensive

- asset intensive

asset light

asset light

- asset intensive

*adjusted for one-offs

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

53

Q3 2020 Group P&L

in €m

Q3 2019

Q3 2020

vs. LY

Revenue

15,552

16,244

+4.4%

EBIT

942

1,377

+46.2%

Financial result

-173

-183

-5.8%

Taxes

-169

-286

-69.2%

Consolidated net profit*

561

851

+51.7%

EPS (in €)

0.45

0.69

+53.3%

*after minority interest

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

54

Q3 2020 Cash Flow Statement

in €m

Q3 2019

Q3 2020

vs. LY

EBIT

942

1,377

+435

Depreciation/amortization

917

902

-15

Change in provisions

-336

-69

+267

Income taxes paid

-183

-231

-48

Other

74

-39

-113

Changes in Working Capital

455

445

-10

OCF

1,869

2,385

+516

Net Capex

-801

-565

+236

Net cash for leases

-571

-557

+14

Net M&A

16

0

-16

Net interest

-6

1

+7

Free Cash Flow

507

1,264

+757

FCF (excl. B777 payments)

752

1,280

+528

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

incl. B777 payments:

€16m in 2020; €245m in 2019

55

Cash Flow Outlook: Overview of major drivers (1/2)

2019

2020e

FCF effect

Main Drivers 2020 - 2022

(in €m)

(in €bn)

22e vs 20e

EBIT

4,128

4.1-4.4

EBIT guidance. 2020: €4.1-4.4bn; 2022: between ~€4.7bn

and >€5.3bn, depending on macro recovery

Includes non-cashone-offs in 2020 (StreetScooter,

Depreciation/amortization

3,684

~+4.0

impairments); slight increase reflecting investments excl.

these 2020 one-off effects

Change in provisions

Income taxes paid

Changes in WC / Other

-506~-0.4

-843~-0.7

-414 +/- 0.2

Incl. effects for yearly pension payments; in 2019/2020 utilization of early retirement / restructuring provisions

Reflecting rising EBIT in line with 2022 guidance

Strong yoy development in 2020 YTD; slight WC build-up expected going forward

OCF

6,049

~6.6

Improvement mainly driven by EBIT growth

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

56

Cash Flow Outlook: Overview of major drivers (2/2)

2019

2020e

FCF effect

Main Drivers 2020 - 2022

(in €m)

(in €bn)

22e vs 20e

OCF

6,049

~6.6

Improvement mainly driven by EBIT growth

Net Capex excl. B777 order

-2,374

~-2.4

Flat to slight gradual increase in regular gross Capex

B777 order

-1,100

~-0.3

Last tranche of Express B777 Capex in 2021

(2021e: <€300m)

Net Cash for Leases

-2,278

~-2.3

Slightly increasing in line with business growth

Net M&A

680

~-0.1

2019: €+653m China DSC deal;

2020-22e: No significant M&A planned

Net Interest

-110

~-0.1

No major change expected

Free Cash Flow

867

>2.0

Significant improvement in line with 2022 target

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

57

Peaked Capex in 2019 due to B777 order - back to normal levels thereafter

in € m

1.747

3,617

1.100

~2,900

B777 order

2,828

Group Capex excl. B777

180

~300

<300

2.268

2.024 2.074

1.876

2.648 2.517

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

2022e

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

58

Balance sheet continues to show healthy leverage ratios

48.2%

27.6%

1.9x (2018)

1.7x (2019)

5.9x

Net Gearing

Equity Ratio

Net Debt / EBITDA

Interest Cover

All figures in €m, FY 2019

52,169

13.367

Pension Provisions

Other Provisions

Current liabilities

7.812

Non-current liabilities

4.128

Equity

698

Total Equity

Net Debt

EBITDA

EBIT

Interest Expense

  • Liabilities 31.12.2019

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

59

DPDHL Group Pensions - DBO and DCO plans

in €m

DBO

Defined Benefits

Staff Costs & Change in Provisions

Defined Contribution (Cash out = staff costs in EBIT)

Civil Servants in Germany

Hourly workers & salaried employees*

*mainly outside Germany

5.2345.405

13.22213.308

163

193

162

187

193

218

268 264 266 230

168

83

531

516

493

461 449

409

276

317 305 300 307

347

Jun 30th 2020

Sep 30th 2020

Plan Assets

Net Pension Provision

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Current service costs Change in provisions

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Discount Rate

Germany

UK

Other

Total Average

Jun 30th 2020

1.50%

1.40%

1.50%

1.47%

Sep 30th 2020

1.30%

1.40%

1.41%

1.35%

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

60

Investor Relations Contact

Martin Ziegenbalg

Robert Schneider

Sebastian Slania

Agnes Putri

+49 228 182 63000

+49 228 182 63201

+49 228 182 63203

+49 228 182 63207

m.ziegenbalg@dpdhl.com

robert.schneider1@dpdhl.com

sebastian.slania@dpdhl.com

a.putri@dpdhl.com

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

61

Disclaimer

This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported results nor other historical information. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements. Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond Deutsche Post AG's ability to control or estimate precisely, such as future market and economic conditions, the behavior of other market participants, the ability to successfully integrate acquired businesses and achieve anticipated synergies and the actions of government regulators. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which apply only as of the date of this presentation. Deutsche Post AG does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation.

This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to subscribe for or buy any security, nor shall there be any sale, issuance or transfer of the securities referred to in this presentation in any jurisdiction in contravention of applicable law.

Copies of this presentation and any documentation relating to the Offer are not being, and must not be, directly or indirectly, mailed or otherwise forwarded, distributed or sent in or into or from Australia, Canada or Japan or any other jurisdiction where to do so would be unlawful.

This document represents the Company's judgment as of date of this presentation.

BERENBERG VIRTUAL EUROPEAN CONFERENCE | TIM SCHARWATH | 1 DECEMBER 2020

62

Disclaimer

Deutsche Post AG published this content on 24 November 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 30 November 2020 08:40:04 UTC


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Sales 2020 66 005 M 79 701 M 79 701 M
Net income 2020 2 832 M 3 420 M 3 420 M
Net Debt 2020 13 738 M 16 589 M 16 589 M
P/E ratio 2020 19,0x
Yield 2020 2,89%
Capitalization 52 908 M 63 968 M 63 886 M
EV / Sales 2020 1,01x
EV / Sales 2021 0,97x
Nbr of Employees 550 051
Free-Float 100%
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Average target price 46,17 €
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Spread / Highest target 26,5%
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Frank Appel CEO & Head-Global Business Services
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