Deutsche Telekom : Consensus Details Q2 and FY 2020 - 2024

Consensus Details Q2 and FY 2020 - 2024

Disclaimer: This document had been issued by Deutsche Telekom AG for information purposed only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding our revenues, earnings and business developments. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Deutsche Telekom gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness.

		Q2	estimates				FY	estimates				FY	estimates				FY	estimates				FY	estimates				FY	estimates
			# of	High	Low	Average	20	# of	High	Low	Average	21	# of	High	Low	Average	22	# of	High	Low	Average	23	# of	High	Low	Average	24	# of	High	Low	Average
	Gross Revs [€ million]
	Germany	5364	17	5.441	5.112	5.338	21.880	17	22.105	21.442	21.860	22.168	17	22.465	21.597	22.092	22.359	17	22.832	21.593	22.266	22.559	15	23.151	21.466	22.422	22.730	14	23.301	21.348	22.546
	Total Service revs	4782	14	4.856	3.856	4.710	19.256	14	19.322	15.488	18.956	19.425	14	19.617	15.442	19.094	19.574	14	20.092	15.404	19.250	19.682	12	20.657	15.364	19.345	19.847	11	20.269	15.320	19.381
	MSR growth YoY in %	-0.6%	12	0.4%	-1.1%	-0.4%	0.5%	14	2.3%	-0.8%	0.6%	2.1%	14	3.8%	-0.4%	1.9%	1.8%	14	3.0%	-1.1%	1.7%	1.5%	12	2.7%	0.0%	1.5%	1.5%	12	2.9%	-2.3%	1.3%
	Mobile Contract Net Adds (own-branded) ['000]	50	7	100	40	61	434	9	709	200	451	450	9	2913	125	673	390	9	520	50	358	355	8	530	50	346	312	7	500	50	306
	Retail Line Losses ['000]	100	12	173	91	113	487	13	713	364	512	500	13	900	200	477	485	12	899	247	479	424	10	750	197	417	388	8	1000	158	433
	BB retail Net Adds DT ['000]	57	14	113	-19	53	236	14	450	26	236	199	14	300	81	198	183	14	400	2	188	144	12	299	-1	153	127	11	302	-4	129
	TMUS (gross revs in €)	15977	16	17.655	14.987	16.166	60.147	16	63.115	56.415	60.335	68.176	16	73.487	62.796	68.578	70.376	16	75.236	63.692	70.248	72.073	14	76.028	65.361	71.703	73.371	13	77.685	66.847	73.349
	Gross revs in $ (US GAAP)	17760	13	19.447	10.569	16.885	66.618	13	70.513	45.402	64.122	75.631	13	79.664	47.954	72.215	78.047	13	81.712	49.588	73.950	80.392	11	83.629	51.989	77.635	81.961	10	85.492	77.917	82.054
	Service revs in $ (US GAAP)	13706	15	16.894	8.569	13.137	50.351	15	59.912	35.002	48.288	56.165	15	69.293	36.854	53.749	58.016	15	70.503	38.475	55.324	59.270	13	71.461	39.616	57.797	60.686	12	72.636	50.772	60.728
	$-FX-Rate: 1 Euro for ...	1.10	16	1.15	1.09	1.11	1.12	16	1.15	1.09	1.12	1.13	16	1.17	1.09	1.13	1.13	16	1.17	1.09	1.13	1.13	14	1.17	1.09	1.13	1.13	13	1.17	1.09	1.12
	Europe	2906	17	3.014	2.725	2.900	12.049	17	12.300	11.636	12.017	12.109	17	12.485	11.725	12.096	12.225	17	12.618	11.762	12.193	12.318	15	12.759	11.814	12.305	12.425	14	12.919	11.865	12.423
	Group Development	693	17	722	618	687	2.873	17	2.932	2.688	2.862	2.945	17	3.050	2.692	2.942	3.014	17	3.181	2.724	3.005	3.089	15	3.295	2.765	3.070	3.147	14	3.383	2.807	3.131
	NL	464	14	486	386	451	1.947	14	2.000	1.773	1.934	1.983	14	2.091	1.776	1.986	2.012	14	2.202	1.809	2.022	2.049	12	2.297	1.850	2.060	2.083	12	2.365	1.892	2.097
	GD Towers	244	14	251	227	242	971	14	990	830	953	986	14	1.034	832	977	1.013	14	1.079	908	1.004	1.026	12	1.131	862	1.019	1.046	12	1.188	887	1.043
	T-Systems	1640	17	1.681	1.422	1.605	6.706	17	6.900	6.169	6.646	6.618	17	6.850	6.205	6.600	6.684	17	6.950	6.267	6.626	6.664	15	7.050	6.356	6.651	6.623	14	6.942	6.419	6.655
	GHS	658	17	678	590	654	2.568	17	2.700	2.503	2.572	2.539	17	2.700	2.377	2.541	2.515	17	2.720	2.259	2.512	2.496	15	2.699	2.206	2.485	2.452	14	2.726	2.114	2.446
	Reconciliation	-1516	16	2.042	-2.014	-1.323	-6.100	16	-5.639	-7.483	-6.275	-6.148	16	-5.767	-8.067	-6.372	-6.153	16	-5.830	-8.192	-6.302	-6.255	14	-5.917	-8.309	-6.497	-6.166	13	-5.857	-8.425	-6.374
	Group revs	25633	16	27.435	24.671	25.733	100.103	16	103.105	96.062	99.940	108.018	16	113.821	102.889	108.446	110.530	16	115.578	104.322	110.509	111.803	14	115.837	106.622	112.084	113.776	13	119.009	108.800	114.097
	Net Revs [€ million]
	Germany	5060	10	5.109	4.782	5.011	20.586	10	20.791	20.156	20.573	20.826	10	21.057	20.301	20.779	21.036	10	21.303	20.318	20.934	21.209	8	21.480	20.336	21.081	21.397	8	21.790	20.364	21.253
	TMUS	15975	9	17.367	14.987	16.158	60.238	9	62.683	56.413	60.003	67.951	9	73.292	62.794	68.245	70.500	9	74.799	63.690	69.950	71.497	7	74.799	65.359	71.128	73.366	7	77.685	66.845	73.065
	Europe	2814	10	2.917	2.635	2.808	11.689	10	11.863	11.411	11.662	11.844	10	11.986	11.405	11.768	11.913	10	12.167	11.482	11.870	11.988	8	12.367	11.560	11.998	12.102	8	12.569	11.639	12.126
	Group Development	532	10	546	455	525	2.191	10	2.249	2.138	2.196	2.266	10	2.367	2.161	2.265	2.335	10	2.419	2.170	2.314	2.389	8	2.475	2.170	2.363	2.454	8	2.563	2.204	2.419
	T-Systems	1266	9	1.326	1.082	1.250	5.293	9	5.422	4.977	5.257	5.250	9	5.407	4.779	5.236	5.289	9	5.496	4.827	5.271	5.315	7	5.614	4.905	5.302	5.368	7	5.733	5.015	5.347
	GHS	48	9	99	30	52	198	10	257	190	203	196	10	257	183	203	196	10	257	180	203	194	8	222	176	195	194	8	224	174	196
	Adj. EBITDA AL [€ million]
	Germany	2183	17	2.219	2.157	2.185	8.901	17	9.003	8.819	8.897	9.071	17	9.379	8.933	9.085	9.234	17	9.597	9.061	9.260	9.439	15	9.849	9.051	9.431	9.511	14	10.156	9.001	9.591
	TMUS	5498	15	5.642	3.630	5.297	19.030	15	20.131	14.390	18.682	21.857	15	23.443	19.177	21.551	23.161	15	26.258	21.193	23.274	26.049	13	28.064	23.405	25.672	27.268	12	29.958	24.029	27.153
	TMUS in $ (IFRS)	6109	10	7.207	3.998	5.940	21.214	10	24.520	16.109	21.108	24.902	10	28.825	21.273	24.585	26.585	10	30.478	24.320	26.950	29.207	8	32.105	27.395	29.651	31.205	7	34.272	28.186	31.364
	TMUS in $ (US GAAP)	6400	9	6.479	5.855	6.344	22.519	9	23.153	20.672	22.205	25.959	9	28.388	24.514	26.260	27.491	9	31.117	25.865	27.929	29.456	8	33.367	27.321	29.828	30.959	8	35.369	28.345	31.354
	TMUS ex handset leasing in $ (US GAAP)	5036	8	6.252	3.556	4.918	17.789	8	22.019	13.965	17.776	22.345	8	25.459	14.742	21.535	25.696	8	27.110	15.395	23.901	28.339	6	31.206	23.490	27.381	29.875	6	33.049	25.781	29.173
	Europe	975	17	1.016	952	977	3.995	17	4.244	3.952	4.022	4.059	17	4.278	3.956	4.078	4.141	17	4.356	3.998	4.141	4.222	15	4.400	4.035	4.211	4.293	14	4.387	4.058	4.255
	Group Development	264	17	275	248	263	1.084	17	1.121	1.067	1.088	1.135	17	1.228	1.077	1.149	1.174	17	1.317	1.091	1.191	1.203	15	1.378	1.104	1.221	1.243	14	1.411	1.118	1.259
	NL	128	13	140	111	127	538	14	580	519	541	575	14	637	530	579	602	14	660	538	597	607	12	684	546	610	625	12	706	555	625
	GD Towers	144	12	148	135	144	580	13	593	540	575	598	13	626	547	593	614	13	668	477	605	627	11	713	496	621	640	11	760	530	643
	T-Systems	115	17	144	99	119	524	17	596	438	517	544	17	676	432	548	564	17	750	438	572	562	15	825	446	581	559	14	831	458	577
	GHS	-92	17	-62	-150	-95	-644	17	-486	-725	-625	-640	17	-508	-728	-627	-635	17	-501	-735	-621	-618	15	-451	-743	-613	-621	14	-401	-752	-615
	Reconciliation	-7	17	0	-30	-12	-28	17	-8	-101	-33	-28	17	0	-181	-40	-28	17	0	-190	-42	-28	15	0	-206	-46	-28	14	0	-218	-40
	Group EBITDA AL adj.	8924	15	9.098	7.034	8.730	33.054	15	34.238	28.129	32.592	36.110	15	37.516	33.233	35.726	37.465	15	40.534	35.646	37.750	40.735	13	43.418	38.153	40.426	42.007	12	45.118	39.111	42.149
	Group ex TMUS EBITDA AL adj.	3427	16	3.555	3.360	3.435	13.859	16	14.133	13.722	13.869	14.114	16	14.651	13.947	14.183	14.433	16	15.014	14.176	14.489	14.755	14	15.375	14.176	14.764	15.017	13	15.757	14.380	15.011
	Group EBITDA adj.	10012	9	10.622	8.629	9.782	36.988	9	38.718	31.679	36.101	39.874	9	43.510	36.706	39.924	43.269	9	46.127	38.840	42.523	45.642	7	49.825	41.465	46.173	48.383	7	51.525	44.151	48.207
	Cash Capex [€ million]
	Germany	1022	16	1.056	798	1.000	4.192	17	4.400	3.709	4.170	4.223	17	4.380	3.700	4.217	4.300	17	4.700	4.059	4.341	4.408	15	5.300	3.900	4.403	4.256	14	5.500	3.800	4.410
	TMUS	2109	15	3.162	2.035	2.271	8.728	15	13.159	7.565	9.149	10.675	16	14.869	8.579	10.950	10.219	16	12.903	8.650	10.651	9.941	14	12.844	8.557	10.109	9.187	13	11.963	7.944	9.318
	TMUS in $ (US GAAP)	2400	15	3.488	2.299	2.512	9.815	15	14.775	8.653	10.255	12.191	15	16.852	9.660	12.554	11.689	15	15.039	9.660	12.238	11.406	13	14.106	9.660	11.608	10.657	12	13.173	9.038	10.661
	Europe	400	15	500	359	414	1.760	16	2.017	1.550	1.762	1.774	17	2.221	1.650	1.802	1.809	17	2.221	1.600	1.801	1.799	15	1.955	1.600	1.783	1.802	14	1.900	1.140	1.739
	Group Development	109	16	425	75	132	512	17	829	344	531	522	17	641	300	520	494	17	726	300	512	470	15	821	300	486	448	14	930	300	474
	T-Systems	82	16	103	50	83	371	17	422	301	364	383	17	424	325	382	382	17	417	325	383	382	15	423	325	383	379	14	417	325	378
	GHS	234	16	300	150	228	952	17	1.133	733	939	935	17	1.133	713	918	932	17	1.133	700	903	929	15	1.133	664	892	916	14	1.133	485	879
	Group Cash Capex	3936	15	5.052	3.525	4.060	16.510	15	20.771	13.846	16.736	18.591	16	22.715	14.771	18.643	18.438	16	20.772	14.907	18.428	17.697	14	21.374	14.933	18.004	16.671	13	19.685	14.735	16.904
	Cash [€ million]
	Group FCF AL before dividends	2017	13	2.573	372	1.768	6.467	15	8.525	2.353	6.282	7.811	15	10.115	2.972	7.025	10.482	15	12.829	4.667	9.814	14.278	13	18.382	10.301	13.874	16.907	12	21.028	12.481	16.984
	TMUS reported FCF AL in $ (US GAAP)	1450	5	3.724	1.255	1.901	4.139	8	5.400	1.334	3.842	4.236	8	6.552	-745	3.737	7.475	8	10.586	3.975	7.321	11.871	6	16.139	10.851	12.781	14.209	6	19.972	10.361	14.467
	Group ex TMUS FCF AL	1028	5	1.187	-3.010	260	3.131	7	3.782	1.163	2.962	3.800	7	4.427	3.594	3.904	3.895	7	4.423	3.488	3.866	3.976	6	4.801	3.526	4.067	3.897	6	4.906	3.432	4.085
	Group FCF before dividends	2668	7	3.650	1.563	2.526	9.330	7	11.282	7.115	9.268	9.037	8	13.783	2.069	8.801	12.054	8	17.255	3.774	11.559	14.145	7	21.861	11.043	16.102	19.590	7	26.553	2.513	17.699
	Dividend per Share		0				0.60	15	0.66	0.60	0.61	0.60	15	0.90	0.60	0.64	0.65	15	1.11	0.55	0.68	0.70	13	1.32	0.56	0.74	0.73	12	1.38	0.60	0.80
	Group Net Debt (incl. leases)	120303	12	124.270	116.788	120.305	117.509	15	124.086	107.432	117.647	116.926	15	134.764	99.968	117.560	113.631	15	132.554	92.375	113.611	106.724	13	125.734	79.220	106.611	98.534	12	121.930	76.819	100.769
	Group Net Debt (excl. leases)	95391	10	103.071	92.439	96.338	91.290	14	104.097	79.706	92.588	91.670	14	106.094	79.666	92.161	88.946	14	103.165	73.330	87.955	81.251	12	91.704	59.448	80.397	77.468	11	90.288	51.854	74.224
	TMUS Net Debt incl. Leases in $ (US GAAP)	83695	4	91.530	82.728	85.412	82.069	8	90.113	61.989	79.095	80.742	8	91.529	60.173	80.539	76.522	8	86.276	54.651	76.304	64.891	7	97.638	44.256	68.335	54.551	7	106.327	28.540	61.920
	TMUS Net Debt excl. Leases in $ (US GAAP)	63994	4	68.685	63.496	65.042	62.054	10	67.828	58.997	62.914	64.013	10	78.380	57.848	64.073	58.776	10	74.444	49.651	59.538	51.219	9	69.810	35.979	51.264	44.117	9	77.299	17.949	42.915
	Group assumed spending on spectrum*	759	10	2.763	100	849	2.000	11	4.742	1.000	2.374	1.875	12	8.753	300	2.839	980	12	2.319	300	1.109	1.000	9	7.120	300	1.615	1.000	9	5.441	294	1.368
	Bottom Line [€ million]
	Group adj. D&A	6059	14	7.022	4.200	6.060	22.480	16	25.558	17.487	22.216	24.416	16	28.505	17.866	23.845	24.029	16	28.502	17.379	23.478	23.775	14	29.110	16.602	23.170	23.691	13	28.033	16.035	22.733
	Group adj. EBIT	3724	13	4.484	3.071	3.683	14.150	16	16.311	10.908	13.439	14.766	16	19.519	10.862	14.785	16.790	16	21.955	12.923	17.185	20.759	14	25.618	13.642	20.313	23.483	13	27.284	14.450	23.031
	Group adj. Net Income (after minorities)	1597	11	2.770	1.099	1.646	5.521	14	9.687	3.937	5.520	5.710	15	8.554	3.521	5.902	6.860	15	10.456	4.581	7.006	8.066	13	13.333	5.348	8.407	9.265	12	14.875	6.594	9.466
	Group reported Net Income (after minorities)	989	10	2.073	95	1.036	3640	12	6.914	1.136	3.680	3440	13	6.244	646	3.496	4614	13	7.677	1.853	4.624	6646	11	10.756	1.853	6.182	7457	10	12.618	3.033	7.421

*Please only include spectrum cost projections which are included in your net debt forecast

28.07.2020