(new: statements from conference calls, share price, analyst comments)

BONN (dpa-AFX) - Unlike some of its industry competitors, logistics group DHL Group is sticking to its annual targets. A subdued macroeconomic environment and a positive contribution from the cost-cutting measures introduced are still to be expected, the DAX-listed company said in a statement on Wednesday. Based on these assumptions, the forecast for 2025 remains unchanged. However, management is not taking into account the possible effects of changes in US customs and trade policy.

Meanwhile, the Bonn-based company performed surprisingly well in the first quarter. Although only a small increase was achieved compared to the same period last year, the results were slightly better than the average expectations of analysts surveyed by the company. The share price rose on the news.

In the afternoon, it was still one of the top performers in the German benchmark index, up 2.5 percent. The ups and downs of this year are thus continuing: Until the beginning of March, the share price had initially climbed upward; then, in line with the general market turmoil, a downward trend developed, culminating three weeks ago in the lowest level of the current year. Since then, it has been on the rise again, and since the turn of the year, it has gained a good 11 percent.

Analyst Guido Hoymann from Bankhaus Metzler emphasized that the operating result (EBIT) exceeded consensus estimates, mainly thanks to better-than-expected business development in the two divisions Post & Parcel Germany (P&P) and Express. However, weaknesses were also identified in the quarterly report.

Warburg analyst Christian Cohrs and JPMorgan analyst Alexia Dogani pointed to the surprising and very significant deterioration in earnings in the freight forwarding division (GFF). Overall, however, the company was credited with good business development in a highly challenging market environment.

In the first quarter, revenues rose by 2.8 percent to a good 20.8 billion euros. Of this, almost 1.4 billion euros remained after interest and taxes (EBIT), which was 4.5 percent more than a year earlier. Free cash flow rose by a good 17 percent to 732 million euros, which was also higher than market estimates. The same applied to net income attributable to shareholders, which rose by a good 6 percent to 786 million euros.

CEO Tobias Meyer referred to the difficult economic environment when presenting the figures. At the start of the year, this had been characterized by general economic restraint and the US tariff and trade policy.

This was also the focus of the conference calls with the Group's management. Meyer and CFO Melanie Kreis reported on the large number and variety of cases and special situations that the logistics group has had to deal with since US President Donald Trump announced far-reaching tariffs around four weeks ago. These have already been subject to numerous changes and exceptions.

Customs clearance is complex, commented Kreis, and the devil is in the details. Customers need even more support. She and CEO Meyer expressed confidence that many customers will increasingly turn to premium providers in the market for goods transport during these volatile times. A possible reorganization of global trade routes could also benefit DHL.

Nevertheless, the Bonn-based company is also feeling the negative effects of the customs chaos. Trade flows, particularly between China and the US, have already declined noticeably. In addition, many customers are uncertain and are currently holding back in view of the constantly changing rules, according to management. It remains to be seen whether the positive or negative effects will ultimately prevail.

At the same time, DHL is also preparing for a possible rapid recovery in shipment volumes and trade flows. This could happen if agreements are reached surprisingly quickly in the trade war, especially between the US and China.

DHL's annual targets currently envisage an operating profit of at least €6 billion and free cash flow of around €3 billion. On Tuesday, US competitor UPS suspended its annual forecast, and in March, competitor FedEx lowered its annual targets, citing the uncertain US economic situation.

DHL, meanwhile, has a relatively small footprint in the US. However, a global economic downturn and a slowdown in world trade as a result of the US trade war would affect the group, which is active in over 220 countries and territories. Most analysts expect the freight and logistics markets to enter a downturn if the US government does not change course. /lew/tav/jha/