After an initial slowdown in sales in North America - which itself followed a peak in consumption during the pandemic, then in the context of easing restrictions - it's now in Latin America that sales are taking a hit. The South American continent accounts for a tenth of the Group's consolidated sales.
Diageo warns that fiscal year 2024 will undoubtedly be worse than the previous year. The announcement is not exactly a surprise, especially as the current economic climate is not sparing any of the Briton's rivals. Pernod, Campari, Rémy Cointreau and LVMH's spirits division are all facing declining sales and destocking.
Some analysts believe that at x17 times earnings - its lowest valuation in ten years - Diageo shares offer an attractive investment opportunity. It's true that over the last decade - in a context of zero interest rates - the stock traded between x20 and x24 its earnings.
We've seen more excess, especially for a company capable of delivering a sustainable return on equity in excess of 30%. But that's just one side of the coin, as the other side of the coin has seen disappointing profit growth over the full cycle.
Diageo has solid assets - world leader in whisky and tequila, a strong position in North America, a joint venture with Moet Hennessy, etc. - but its strategy of price increases shows that it is not the only one. - but its strategy of raising prices is showing its limits.
New CEO Debra Crew - a PepsiCo transfer - has her work cut out for her. With her highly operational profile, we can count on productivity gains, but perhaps not on a complete strategic reinvention, similar, for example, to that inspired by Ivan Menezes ten years ago.