Financials Dollar Tree, Inc.

Equities

DLTR

US2567461080

Discount Stores

Market Closed - Nasdaq Other stock markets 04:00:00 2024-09-06 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
66.50 ^USD	-2.88%		-21.29%	-53.19%

Sep. 05	BofA Slashes Dollar Tree Price Target to $70 From $117, Cites Expense Headwinds, Competitive Pressure; Maintains Underperform Rating	MT
Sep. 05	Dollar Tree Possesses Strength to Reach Higher Earnings, UBS Says	MT

Projected Income Statement: Dollar Tree, Inc.

Fiscal Period: February	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net sales ¹	23,611	25,509	26,310	28,332	30,604	30,698	31,957	33,407
Change	-	8.04%	3.14%	7.68%	8.02%	0.31%	4.1%	4.54%
EBITDA ¹	2,245	2,574	2,527	3,004	2,629	2,628	2,917	3,218
Change	-	14.66%	-1.83%	18.87%	-12.48%	-0.06%	11.01%	10.3%
EBIT ¹	1,600	1,888	1,811	2,236	1,788	1,629	1,872	2,101
Change	-	18%	-4.05%	23.46%	-20.03%	-8.92%	14.9%	12.23%
Interest Paid ¹	-162.1	-147.3	-178.9	-125.3	-106.8	-110.2	-104.5	-105.8
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	1,099	1,740	1,632	2,111	-988.7	1,498	1,780	1,950
Change	-	58.35%	-6.18%	29.31%	-	-	18.82%	9.56%
Net income ¹	827	1,342	1,328	1,615	-998.4	1,142	1,346	1,487
Change	-	62.26%	-1.04%	21.65%	-	-	17.83%	10.49%
Announcement Date	3/4/20	3/3/21	3/2/22	3/1/23	3/13/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Fiscal Period: February	2020 Q3	2020 Q4	2021 Q1	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	2026 Q1	2026 Q2	2026 Q3	2026 Q4
Net sales ¹	5,746	6,315	6,287	6,278	6,177	6,768	6,480	6,343	6,418	7,077	6,903	6,768	6,940	7,721	7,324	7,325	7,315	8,640	7,633	7,379	7,448	8,261	7,842	7,665	7,758	8,586
Change	-	9.9%	-0.45%	-0.15%	-1.6%	9.57%	-4.26%	-2.11%	1.17%	10.28%	-2.47%	-1.94%	2.53%	11.25%	-5.14%	0.02%	-0.14%	18.12%	-11.66%	-3.33%	0.94%	10.91%	-5.07%	-2.26%	1.22%	10.68%
EBITDA ¹	518.4	759.5	531.4	543	635.6	864.5	692.6	578.3	489	767.5	920.4	698.9	570.3	814.6	616.1	490.8	517.5	975.3	654.6	449.7	585.8	929.7	713.1	536.8	629.8	994.9
Change	-	46.51%	-30.03%	2.18%	17.05%	36.01%	-19.88%	-16.5%	-15.44%	56.95%	19.92%	-24.07%	-18.4%	42.84%	-24.37%	-20.34%	5.44%	88.46%	-32.88%	-31.3%	30.26%	58.7%	-23.29%	-24.72%	17.32%	57.96%
EBIT ¹	358.4	580.4	365.9	374.9	465.5	681.6	519.9	402.2	310.5	578.8	731.5	505.4	381.3	618.1	419.7	287.8	301.7	749.1	420.6	203.1	332.6	653.2	472.7	276.2	365.9	712.8
Change	-	61.94%	-36.96%	2.46%	24.17%	46.42%	-23.72%	-22.64%	-22.8%	86.41%	26.38%	-30.91%	-24.55%	62.1%	-32.1%	-31.43%	4.83%	148.29%	-43.85%	-51.71%	63.78%	96.37%	-27.64%	-41.57%	32.49%	94.8%
Charge d'intérêts ¹	-41.4	-39.2	-40.2	-34.8	-38.1	-34.2	-33	-33	-33.4	-79.5	-34	-30.6	-32.7	-28	-25.9	-24.2	-30.4	-26.3	-24.4	-28.9	-30.51	-26.36	-27.97	-25.6	-25.17	-25.17
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	316.9	209.5	325.2	339.9	427.3	647.4	486.9	369.2	276.9	499.2	697.5	474.7	348.4	590	393.7	263.7	271.1	-1,917	396.1	174.2	302.7	621.5	456.6	232.8	356.2	705.6
Change	-	-33.89%	55.23%	4.52%	25.71%	51.51%	-24.79%	-24.17%	-25%	80.28%	39.72%	-31.94%	-26.61%	69.35%	-33.27%	-33.02%	2.81%	-	-	-56.02%	73.74%	105.36%	-26.53%	-49.01%	52.99%	98.09%
Net income ¹	255.8	123	247.6	261.5	330	502.8	374.5	282.4	216.8	454.2	536.4	359.9	266.9	452.2	299	200.4	212	-1,710	300.1	132.4	229.7	473	346	176.4	269.6	534.1
Change	-	-51.92%	101.3%	5.61%	26.2%	52.36%	-25.52%	-24.59%	-23.23%	109.5%	18.1%	-32.9%	-25.84%	69.43%	-33.88%	-32.98%	5.79%	-	-	-55.88%	73.49%	105.91%	-26.84%	-49.03%	52.85%	98.11%
Announcement Date	11/26/19	3/4/20	5/28/20	8/27/20	11/24/20	3/3/21	5/27/21	8/26/21	11/23/21	3/2/22	5/26/22	8/25/22	11/22/22	3/1/23	5/25/23	8/24/23	11/29/23	3/13/24	6/5/24	9/4/24	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Balance Sheet: Dollar Tree, Inc.

Fiscal Period: February	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net Debt ¹	3,233	1,810	2,432	2,779	2,741	2,952	2,853	2,538
Change	-	-44.01%	34.36%	14.27%	-1.37%	7.68%	-3.35%	-11.04%
Announcement Date	3/4/20	3/3/21	3/2/22	3/1/23	3/13/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Dollar Tree, Inc.

Fiscal Period: February	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
CAPEX ¹	1,035	898.8	1,021	1,249	2,101	1,865	2,009	1,917
Change	-	-13.14%	13.62%	22.29%	68.27%	-11.24%	7.72%	-4.6%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ¹	835	1,818	410.3	366	583.2	404.6	725.4	949.3
Change	-	117.66%	-77.43%	-10.8%	59.34%	-30.63%	79.3%	30.86%
Announcement Date	3/4/20	3/3/21	3/2/22	3/1/23	3/13/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Dollar Tree, Inc.

Fiscal Period: February	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)	9.51%	10.09%	9.61%	10.6%	8.59%	8.56%	9.13%	9.63%
EBIT Margin (%)	6.78%	7.4%	6.88%	7.89%	5.84%	5.31%	5.86%	6.29%
EBT Margin (%)	4.65%	6.82%	6.2%	7.45%	-3.23%	4.88%	5.57%	5.84%
Net margin (%)	3.5%	5.26%	5.05%	5.7%	-3.26%	3.72%	4.21%	4.45%
FCF margin (%)	3.54%	7.12%	1.56%	1.29%	1.91%	1.32%	2.27%	2.84%
FCF / Net Income (%)	100.97%	135.44%	30.9%	22.66%	-58.41%	35.42%	53.9%	63.84%
Profitability
ROA	5%	6.66%	6.3%	7.22%	5.74%	5.21%	5.52%	5.84%
ROE	19.07%	19.82%	17.7%	19.62%	16.1%	15.49%	14.63%	14.43%
Financial Health
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.44x	0.7x	0.96x	0.92x	1.04x	1.12x	0.98x	0.79x
Debt / Free cash flow	3.87x	1x	5.93x	7.59x	4.7x	7.3x	3.93x	2.67x
Capital Intensity
CAPEX / Current Assets (%)	4.38%	3.52%	3.88%	4.41%	6.87%	6.08%	6.29%	5.74%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%)	46.09%	34.91%	40.41%	41.57%	79.92%	70.97%	68.87%	59.56%
CAPEX / FCF (%)	123.93%	49.45%	248.89%	341.2%	360.31%	461%	276.95%	201.9%
Items per share
Cash flow per share ¹	7.846	11.45	6.251	7.206	12.23	9.669	11.84	13.08
Change	-	45.88%	-45.39%	15.27%	69.73%	-20.94%	22.4%	10.48%
Dividend per Share ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Change	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Book Value Per Share ¹	26.25	30.7	33.71	-	-	36.28	43.71	50.43
Change	-	16.97%	9.79%	-	-	-	20.48%	15.36%
EPS ¹	3.47	5.65	5.8	7.21	-4.55	5.305	6.325	6.982
Change	-	62.82%	2.65%	24.31%	-163.11%	-216.6%	19.21%	10.39%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	236,662	235,192	224,956	221,184	217,872	214,992	214,992	214,992
Announcement Date	3/4/20	3/3/21	3/2/22	3/1/23	3/13/24	-	-	-