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EL POLLO LOCO : Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations. (form 10-Q)

07/31/2020 | 03:21pm EDT

Cautionary Statement Concerning Forward-Looking Statements

This report contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this report are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements discuss our current expectations and projections relating to our financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance and business. You can identify forward-looking statements because they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. These statements may include words such as "aim," "anticipate," "believe," "estimate," "expect," "forecast," "outlook," "potential," "project," "projection," "plan," "intend," "seek," "may," "could," "would," "will," "should," "can," "can have," "likely," the negatives thereof and other words and terms of similar meaning in connection with any discussion of the timing or nature of future operating or financial performance or other events. They appear in a number of places throughout this report and include statements regarding our intentions, beliefs or current expectations concerning, among other things, our results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies and the industry in which we operate. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those that we expected.


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While we believe that our assumptions are reasonable, we caution that it is very difficult to predict the impact of known factors, and it is impossible for us to anticipate all factors that could affect our actual results. All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. You should evaluate all forward-looking statements made in this report in the context of the factors that could cause outcomes to differ materially from our expectations. These factors include, but are not limited to:

the impacts of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on our company, our

? employees, our customers, our partners, our industry and the economy as a

whole, as well as our franchisees ability to maintain operations in their

individual restaurants;

the adverse impact of economic conditions on our (i) operating results and

? financial condition, (ii) ability to comply with the terms and covenants of our

debt agreements, and (iii) ability to pay or refinance our existing debt or to

obtain additional financing;

? our ability to open new restaurants in new and existing markets, including

difficulty in finding sites and in negotiating acceptable leases;

? our ability to compete successfully with other quick-service and fast casual


? vulnerability to changes in consumer preferences and economic conditions;

? vulnerability to conditions in the greater Los Angeles area;

? vulnerability to natural disasters given the geographic concentration and real

estate intensive nature of our business;

? our ability to effectively identify and secure appropriate new sites for


? changes to food and supply costs, especially for chicken;

? negative publicity, whether or not valid, and our ability to respond to and

effectively manage the accelerated impact of social media;

? our ability to continue to expand our digital business, delivery orders and


? concerns about food safety and quality and about food-borne illness,

particularly avian flu;

dependence on frequent and timely deliveries of food and supplies and our

? dependence on a single supplier to distribute substantially all of our products

to our restaurants;

? our ability to service our level of indebtedness;

our reliance on our franchisees, who may incur financial hardships, lose access

? to credit, close restaurants, or declare bankruptcy, and our limited control

over our franchisees and potential liability for their acts;

? the impact of any security breaches of confidential customer information in

connection with our electronic process of credit and debit card transactions;

? the impact of any failure of our information technology system or any breach of

our network security;

? ability to protect our name and logo and other proprietary intellectual

property; and

other risks set forth in our filings with the SEC from time to time, including

under Item 1A, Risk Factors in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q, under Item

1A, Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended

? December 25, 2019 and under Item 1A, Risk Factors in our quarterly report on

Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 25, 2020, which such filings are

available online at www.sec.gov, at www.elpolloloco.com or upon request from El

Pollo Loco.

We caution you that the important factors referenced above may not contain all of the factors that are important to you. In addition, we cannot assure you that we will realize the results or developments we expect or anticipate or, even if substantially realized, that they will result in the consequences we anticipate or affect us or our operations in the ways that we expect. The forward-looking statements included in this report are made only as of the date hereof. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. If we do update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be made that we will make additional updates with respect to those or other forward-looking statements. We qualify all of our forward-looking statements by these cautionary statements.


El Pollo Loco is a differentiated and growing restaurant concept that specializes in fire-grilling citrus-marinated chicken and operates in the limited service restaurant ("LSR") segment. We strive to offer food that integrates the culinary traditions of Mexico with the healthier lifestyle of Los Angeles, a combination that we call "LA-Mex". Our distinctive menu features our signature product--citrus-marinated fire-grilled chicken--and a variety of Mexican and LA-inspired entrees that we create from our chicken. We serve individual and family-sized chicken meals, a variety of Mexican and


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LA-inspired entrees, and sides, and, throughout the year, on a limited-time basis, additional proteins like shrimp. Our entrees include favorites such as our Chicken Avocado Burrito, Under 500 Calorie entrees, chicken tostada salads, and Pollo Bowls. Our famous Creamy Cilantro dressings and salsas are prepared fresh daily, allowing our customers to create their favorite flavor profiles to enhance their culinary experience. Our distinctive menu with healthier alternatives appeals to consumers across a wide variety of socio-economic backgrounds and drives our balanced composition of sales throughout the day (our "day-part mix"), including at lunch and dinner.

COVID-19 Impact

On January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization ("WHO") announced a global health emergency because of a new strain of coronavirus ("COVID-19") originating in Wuhan, China and the risks to the international community as the virus spreads globally beyond its point of origin. On March 11, 2020, the WHO classified the COVID-19 outbreak as a pandemic, based on the rapid increase in exposure globally.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly disrupted our restaurant operations. Following the pandemic declaration in March 2020, federal, state and local governments began to respond to the public health crisis by requiring social distancing, "stay at home" directives, and restaurant restrictions - including government-mandated dining room closures - that limited business to off-premise services only (take-out, drive-thru and delivery). Historically, approximately 20% of the Company's sales are associated with dine-in service. In May 2020, the "stay at home" directive was modified in most areas in which the Company operates, allowing for the opening of lower-risk workplaces, including restaurants, but with restrictions such as limited capacity. However, in recent months a surge in the COVID-19 pandemic has caused many state and local governments to re-implement certain restrictions to try and contain the spread of the virus. Except for nine restaurants in Houston and one in Utah, all of our restaurants are operating on a take-away, mobile pick-up and delivery basis, as well as maintaining drive-thru operations where available, in order to protect our employees and customers from the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and to comply with the government mandates. Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, during the thirteen and twenty-six weeks ended June 24, 2020, we temporarily closed 31 restaurants, 30 of which have reopened and one remained closed as of June 24, 2020. Similarly, franchisees have temporarily closed 21 restaurants, of which 17 have reopened and four remain closed as of June 24, 2020. As of June 24, 2020, we have not permanently closed any restaurants due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Below is a summary of other actions we have taken, or plan to take to enhance financial and operating flexibility for the Company and for our franchisees, and to protect our employees and customers:

As a precautionary measure, we bolstered our existing cash position by fully

? drawing down our $150 million 2018 Revolver, adding $34.5 million of cash to

our balance sheet.

We have temporarily suspended all share repurchase activity, significantly

reduced capital spending, reevaluated essential support center general and

? administrative expenses, and fine-tuned our restaurant labor model based on

indoor dining room restrictions, limited dining room capacity in restaurants

located in geographies where indoor dining is permitted, dining room closures

and fluctuating sales volume.

For our franchisees, we deferred 50% of their April royalties until July 1,

2020, when such royalties began to be repaid in even monthly installments over

? the remainder of fiscal 2020. In addition, we deferred 100% of our franchisees'

2020 remodel and new restaurant build requirements until 2021. We also

established a support team to assist franchisees in accessing funds and

benefits provided by the CARES Act legislation.

For our employees, we continue to implement actions to help protect them from

the coronavirus while working in our restaurants. These include implementing

enhanced cleaning procedures in our restaurants, providing gloves and masks to

? all system restaurant employees, installing plexiglass shields at company

restaurant cashier stations and initiating other social distancing measures. We

are providing extended sick leave benefits to employees impacted by COVID-19,

and we have granted two weeks paid leave for employees who are 65 or older.

We have shifted our marketing to highlight our free delivery program; our

? Family Meals as a healthier and affordable option; and our meaningful value


We delayed making April, May and June rent payments on the majority of our

? leased properties, and we have reached rent abatement and/or deferment

agreements with our landlords for those properties.

We have taken advantage of provisions available under the CARES Act.

? Specifically, we have deferred payment of employer Social Security taxes that

are otherwise owed for wage payments.


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The full impact of the COVID-19 outbreak continues to evolve as of the date of this report. Management is continually evaluating the impact of the global crisis on its financial condition, liquidity, operations, suppliers, industry, and workforce and will take additional actions as necessary. The disruption in operations has led to us considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our liquidity, debt covenant compliance, and recoverability of long-lived and ROU assets, goodwill and intangible assets, among others. If these disruptions to our operations from COVID-19 pandemic continue, they may have a material negative impact on our financial results, future operations and liquidity. The extent of such negative impact will depend, in part, on the COVID-19 pandemics longevity and severity.

Due to the rapid development and fluidity of this situation, we cannot determine the ultimate impact that the COVID-19 pandemic will have on our consolidated financial condition, liquidity, and future results of operations, and therefore any prediction as to the ultimate material adverse impact on tour consolidated financial condition, liquidity, and future results of operations is uncertain.

Growth Strategies and Outlook

As of June 24, 2020, we had 479 locations in six states. In fiscal 2019, we opened two new company-operated and two new franchised restaurants all in California. For the twenty-six weeks ended June 24, 2020, one new company-operated restaurant was opened in Nevada, which was in process prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and two franchised restaurants, one in California and one in Arizona, were opened. As a result of the COVID-19 crisis, we have suspended company-operated new unit development until the timing of the economic recovery and our business improvement becomes more clear. In addition, we are allowing franchisees to defer their 2020 new unit development obligations until 2021. As a result, we do not expect to open any additional company-operated or franchised restaurant during the remainder of 2020.

It is our intention to return to the following long-term growth strategy after the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic subsides. We plan to continue to expand our business, drive restaurant sales growth, and enhance our competitive positioning, by executing the following strategies:

? expand our restaurant base;

? increase our comparable restaurant sales; and

? enhance operations and leverage our infrastructure.

To increase comparable restaurant sales, we plan to increase customer frequency, attract new customers, and improve per-person spend. Success of these growth plans is not guaranteed.

Highlights and Trends

Comparable Restaurant Sales

System-wide, for the thirteen and twenty-six weeks ended June 24, 2020, comparable restaurant sales decreased by 9.7% and 5.7%, respectively, from the comparable period in the prior year. For company-operated restaurants, comparable restaurant sales for the thirteen and twenty-six weeks ended June 24, 2020 decreased by 8.5% and 4.7%, respectively. For company-operated restaurants, the quarter's change in comparable restaurant sales consisted of a decline in transactions of 25.4%, partially offset by an approximately 22.5% increase in average check size, and the year-to-date change in comparable restaurant sales consisted of a 15.2% decline in transactions, partially offset by a 12.4% increase in average check size. For franchised restaurants, comparable restaurant sales decreased 10.6% and 6.4% for the thirteen and twenty-six weeks ended June 24, 2020, respectively. Refer to Comparable Restaurant Sales definition in "Key Performance Indicators" section below.


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Restaurant Development

Our restaurant counts at the beginning and end of each of the last three fiscal years and the twenty-six weeks ended June 24, 2020, were as follows.

                                               Twenty-Six Weeks Ended       Fiscal Year Ended
                                                   June 24, 2020         2019     2018     2017
Company-operated restaurant activity:
Beginning of period                                               195      213      212      201
Openings                                                            1        2        8       16
Restaurant sale to franchisee                                       -     (16)        -        -
Closures                                                            -      (4)      (7)      (5)
Restaurants at end of period                                      196      195      213      212
Franchised restaurant activity:
Beginning of period                                               287      271      265      259
Openings                                                            2        2        9        7
Restaurant sale to franchisee                                       -       16        -        -
Closures                                                          (6)      (2)      (3)      (1)
Restaurants at end of period                                      283      287      271      265
System-wide restaurant activity:
Beginning of period                                               482      484      477      460
Openings                                                            3        4       17       23
Closures                                                          (6)      (6)     (10)      (6)
Restaurants at end of period                                      479      482      484      477

Restaurant Remodeling

As of June 24, 2020, together with our franchisees, we had remodeled 34 company-operated and 45 franchised restaurants using our newest Vision restaurant design. The Vision design elevates the brand image with exterior and interior features that embrace the brand's authentic roots with warm textures, rustic elements and a focus on the signature open kitchen layout established in previous designs. As of June 24, 2020, including new builds and remodels, we had 120 restaurants open with the Vision design in our system. Remodeling is a use of cash and has implications for our net property and equipment owned and depreciation and amortization line items on our condensed consolidated balance sheets and consolidated statements of income, among others. The cost of our restaurant remodels varies depending on the scope of work required, but on average, the investment is $0.3 million to $0.4 million per restaurant. We believe that our remodeling program will result in higher restaurant revenue and a strengthened brand. In addition, we are currently working on a new asset design that we believe will clearly differentiate and communicate our brand, both on the exterior and interior. We believe that this new design will deliver good new unit volumes and cash on cash returns in both existing and new markets. We also believe that our remodels using this new design will result in higher restaurant revenue and a strengthened brand. If tests are successful, this new design will replace our "Vision" design, which was implemented in 2016. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the severity and longevity of the COVID-19 pandemic, as a precautionary measure we have significantly reduced capital spending in 2020 and plan to limit our remodels to two restaurants using the new design in the fourth quarter. We do not expect our franchisees to complete any remodels in 2020 as we have deferred their remodel requirements until 2021.

Loco Rewards

During the second quarter of 2017, we introduced a new loyalty rewards points program in an effort to increase sales and loyalty among our customers, by offering rewards that incentivize customers to visit our restaurants more often each month. Customers earn points for each dollars spent and 100 points can be redeemed for a $10 reward to be used for a future purchase. If a customer does not earn or use points within a one-year period, their account is deactivated and all points expire. Additionally, if a $10 reward is not used within six months, it expires. When a customer is part of the rewards program, the obligation to provide future discounts related to points earned is considered a separate performance obligation, to which a portion of the transaction price is allocated. The performance obligation related to loyalty points is deemed to have been satisfied, and the amount deferred in the balance sheet is recognized as revenue, when the points are transferred to a $10 reward and redeemed, the reward or points have expired, or the likelihood of redemption is


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remote. A portion of the transaction price is allocated to loyalty points, if necessary, on a pro-rata basis, based on stand-alone selling price, as determined by menu pricing and loyalty point's terms.

In addition, customers can earn additional points and free entrées for a variety of engagement activities. As points are available for redemption past the quarter earned, a portion of the revenue associated with the earned points will be deferred until redemption or expiration. As of both June 24, 2020, and December 25, 2019, the revenue allocated to loyalty points that have not been redeemed are $1.1 million, which is reflected in the Company's accompanying condensed consolidated balance sheets within other accrued expenses and current liabilities. The Company had over 1.8 million loyalty program members as of June 24, 2020.

Critical Accounting Policies and Use of Estimates

The preparation of our condensed consolidated financial statements in accordance with GAAP requires us to make estimates and judgments that affect our reported amounts of assets, liabilities, revenue, and expenses, and related disclosures of contingent assets and liabilities. We base our estimates on historical experience and on various other assumptions that we believe to be reasonable under current circumstances in making judgments about the carrying value of assets and liabilities that are not readily available from other sources. We evaluate our estimates on an on-going basis. Actual results may differ from these estimates under different assumptions or conditions.

Accounting policies are an integral part of our condensed consolidated financial statements. A thorough understanding of these accounting policies is essential when reviewing our reported results of operations and our financial position. Management believes that the critical accounting policies and estimates discussed below involve the most difficult management judgments, due to the sensitivity of the methods and assumptions used. For a summary of our critical accounting policies and a discussion of our use of estimates, see "Critical Accounting Policies and Use of Estimates" in Item 7, "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 25, 2019.

There have been no material changes to our critical accounting policies or uses of estimates since our annual report on Form 10-K.

Recent Accounting Pronouncements

Recent accounting pronouncements are described in Note 1 to our condensed consolidated financial statements included elsewhere in this report.

Key Financial Definitions


Our revenue is derived from three primary sources: company-operated restaurant revenue, franchise revenue, which is comprised primarily of franchise royalties and, to a lesser extent, franchise fees and sublease rental income, and franchise advertising fee revenue. See Note 10 to Item I above for further details regarding our revenue recognition policy.

Food and Paper Costs

Food and paper costs include the direct costs associated with food, beverage and packaging of our menu items. The components of food and paper costs are variable in nature, change with sales volume, are impacted by menu mix, and are subject to increases or decreases in commodity costs.

Labor and Related Expenses

Labor and related expenses include wages, payroll taxes, workers' compensation expense, benefits, and bonuses paid to our restaurant management teams. Like other expense items, we expect labor costs to grow proportionately as our restaurant revenue grows. Factors that influence labor costs include minimum wage and payroll tax legislation, the frequency and severity of workers' compensation claims, health care costs, and the performance of our restaurants.


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Occupancy Costs and Other Operating Expenses

Occupancy costs include rent, common area maintenance, and real estate taxes. Other restaurant operating expenses include the costs of utilities, advertising, credit card processing fees, restaurant supplies, repairs and maintenance, and other restaurant operating costs.

General and Administrative Expenses

General and administrative expenses are comprised of expenses associated with corporate and administrative functions that support the development and operations of our restaurants, including compensation and benefits, travel expenses, stock compensation costs, legal and professional fees, and other related corporate costs. Also included are pre-opening costs, and expenses above the restaurant level, including salaries for field management, such as area and regional managers, and franchise field operational support.

Legal Settlements

Legal settlements include expenses such as judgments or settlements related to legal matters, legal claims and class action lawsuits.

Franchise Expenses

Franchise expenses are primarily comprised of rent expenses incurred on properties leased by us and then sublet to franchisees, expenses incurred in support of franchisee information technology systems, and the franchisee's portion of advertising expenses.

Depreciation and Amortization

Depreciation and amortization primarily consists of the depreciation of property and equipment, including leasehold improvements and equipment.

Loss on Disposal of Assets

Loss on disposal of assets includes the loss on disposal of assets related to retirements and replacement or write-off of leasehold improvements or equipment.

Impairment and Closed-Store Reserves

We review long-lived assets such as property, equipment, and intangibles on a unit-by-unit basis for impairment when events or circumstances indicate a carrying value of the assets that may not be recoverable. We determine if there is impairment at the restaurant level by comparing undiscounted future cash flows from the related long-lived assets to their respective carrying values and record an impairment charge when appropriate. In determining future cash flows, significant estimates are made by us with respect to future operating results of each restaurant over its remaining lease term, including sales trends, labor rates, commodity costs and other operating cost assumptions. If assets are determined to be impaired, the impairment charge is measured by calculating the amount by which the asset carrying amount exceeds its fair value. This process of assessing fair values requires the use of estimates and assumptions, including our ability to sell or reuse the related assets and market conditions, which are subject to a high degree of judgment. If these assumptions change in the future, we may be required to record impairment charges for these assets and these charges could be material.

When the Company closes a restaurant, it will evaluate the ROU asset for impairment, based on anticipated sublease recoveries. The remaining value of the ROU asset is amortized on a straight-line basis, with the expense recognized in closed-store reserve expense, in addition to property tax and common area maintenance ("CAM") charges for closed restaurants.


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Interest Expense, Net

Interest expense, net, consists primarily of interest on our outstanding debt. Debt issuance costs are amortized at cost over the life of the related debt.

Provision for Income Taxes

Provision for income taxes consists of federal and state taxes on our income.

Comparison of Results of Income

Our operating results for the thirteen weeks ended June 24, 2020 and June 26, 2019 and expressed as percentages of total revenue, with the exception of cost of operations and company restaurant expenses, which are expressed as a percentage of company-operated restaurant revenue, are compared below.

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Financials (USD)
Sales 2021 457 M - -
Net income 2021 29,7 M - -
Net Debt 2021 - - -
P/E ratio 2021 19,2x
Yield 2021 -
Capitalization 600 M 600 M -
Capi. / Sales 2021 1,31x
Capi. / Sales 2022 1,25x
Nbr of Employees 4 711
Free-Float 52,5%
Duration : Period :
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. Technical Analysis Chart | MarketScreener
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Technical analysis trends EL POLLO LOCO HOLDINGS, INC.
Short TermMid-TermLong Term
Income Statement Evolution
Mean consensus OUTPERFORM
Number of Analysts 5
Average target price 20,67 $
Last Close Price 16,46 $
Spread / Highest target 39,7%
Spread / Average Target 25,6%
Spread / Lowest Target 9,36%
EPS Revisions
Managers and Directors
Bernard Acoca President, Chief Executive Officer & Director
Laurance Roberts Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer
Michael Gerard Maselli Chairman
Miguel Lozano Chief Operating Officer
John M. Roth Independent Director
Sector and Competitors