ENCAVIS: Improving efficiency and cost reduction through Economies of Scale and Economies of Scope
ENergy
Energy forms the basis of our collective activity and work
CApital
We invest capital to acquire wind farms and solar parks to generate attractive returns
Encavis Asset
Management
ENCAVIS AG
Encavis Technical
Services /
Stern Energy
VISion
We are working towards a future with decentralised power generation from wind power and solar energy
3
Highlights from July to November 2020
ENCAVIS set a clear commitment to sustainability and responsible action and published first insights into its sustainability strategy on its homepage at:www.encavis.com/en/sustainability/
Warburg Research re-initiated active coverage of Encavis AG on Sep 7th with "BUY" recommendation and a target price of EUR 17.20
HSBC Germany initiated active coverage of Encavis AG on Sep 28th with "BUY" recommendation and a target price of EUR 21.00
BlackRock increased their shareholdings in Encavis AG from 3.51% to 4.07% to 5.76%
Share
Wind farms and
Solar parks
Encavis Asset
Management Finance
4
Highlights from July to November 2020
1ENCAVIS expands its participation in its solar park portfolio in France
Share
and now owns 100% of all its French solar parks and 95% of all solar parks
in the portfolio
Wind farms and
Solar parks
2 Encavis Asset Management AG acquires additional wind farms in France for special fund 'Encavis Infrastructure Fund II' as well as a floating solar park in The Netherlands
Encavis Asset Management
v
Finance
Highlights from July to November 2020
ENCAVIS successfully secured a EUR 63.8 million non-recourse project
refinancing for a portfolio of 10 ground-mounted photovoltaic plants located in Italy with a total capacity of 29.1 megawatts (MW)
SCOPE Ratings affirms its investment grade issuer rating BBB- with
stable outlook on Encavis AG and Encavis Finance BV in an updated analysis in October 2020
5
Share
Wind farms and
Solar parks
Encavis Asset
v
Management
Finance
La Cabrera
200 MW PV park "La Cabrera" is already connected to the grid
6
The High Voltage section (substation and transmission line) is grid connected and energized since August 2020.
The power plant is fully built up and achieved to start partial operations on September 3rd, while all sections were in operations since October 1st.
At the end of October the cumulated actual production
of energy was approximately 30,000 MWh despite the fact that the plant was still in commissioning phase.
First invoices of energy production for the months of September and October were sent to AWS amazon web service in Spain.
Required as per EPC contract
Grid Connection
Date for Completion
08/18/2020
10/20/2020
Planned Key Dates
Date for Commissioning 08/25/2020
PV plant is connected to the grid already.
The agreed extra costs due to CoVid-19 are equal to TEUR 240 as of end of October.
Talayuela
Construction of 300 MW PV park "Talayuela" well underway
7
All components and materials are on site.
The whole HV section is finished off currently the cold commissioning activities are going on. The HV section is expected to be grid connected by end of November 2020.
In the photovoltaic section:
100% of the posts are installed,
100% of the tracker are assembled,
97.3% of the modules are installed.
The modules installation is expected to be finalized by end of November.
The electrical works (installation of cables, inverters, transformers, switches, security system and SCADA) are expected to be completed by end of November.
Required as per EPC contract
Grid Connection
Date for Completion
11/23/2020
01/25/2021
Planned Key Dates
Date for Commissioning 11/30/2020 (latest on 01/10/2021)
Grid connection is expected to occur during second half of December and the subsequent hot commissioning is expected to start first week of January.
Expected delay due to CoVid-19 outbreak in the range of four weeks.
Agreed extra costs due to Covid pandemic in spring are equal to TEUR 250.
8
Strong growing PPA markets - ENCAVIS is a European first mover in solar
Pillars of the Encavis
Growth Strategy >> Fast Forward 2025
Encavis has secured
Leveraging knowledge and
Strong Balance Sheet
preferred access to know-
network as experienced
with equity ratio > 24%
how for PPA by establishing
investor based on recently
giving corporates
a dedicated in-house
signed PPAs with
adequate comfort
competence team and
a leading European Utility
to handle risks from
by investing in market
and Amazon for in total of
long-term PPA contracts
leading competence platform
500 MW of Spanish solar
Pexapark (CH)
parks
Access to early stage projects without taking direct development risk by signing numerous partnership agreements with exclusive rights in Italy, France, Spain, The Netherlands, Denmark and Germany
9
Again strong 9M 2020 in line with guidance besides some one-time effects from disposal of minorities, meteorological effects and the virtual Stock Option Programme (SOP)
Detailed explanations on the following pages . . .
10
However, timing effects and the increase in the stock price reduced the improvement of key figures
Operating figures
9M 2019
9M 2020
Change
(in EUR million)
6M 2020/2019
Revenue
223.4
234.3
+ 5 %
Oper. EBITDA
185.8
181.0
- 3 %
Oper. EBIT
121.8
113.2
- 7 %
Oper. EPS in EUR
0.49
0.42
- 14 %
Oper. Cash Flow
132.8
166.6
+ 25 %
Positive meteorological effect after 9M 2019 of EUR 12.9 m compared to 9M 2020 of EUR 7.1 m (EUR -5.8 m)
Profit from disposal of participations after 9M 2019 of EUR 5.9 m comp. to 9M 2020 of EUR 1.9 m (EUR -4 m)
Provisions for the virtual Stock Option Programme for the Management due to strong stock price development: after 9M 2019 EUR -1.1 m compared to 9M 2020 EUR -4.0 m (EUR -2.9 m)
11
Significant revenue and cash flow increases after 9M 2020 vs. 9M 2019
Operating figures
9M 2019
9M 2020
Change
(in EUR million)
9M 2020/2019
Revenue
223.4
234.3
+ 5 %
Oper. EBITDA
185.8
181.0
- 3 %
Oper. EBIT
121.8
113.2
- 7 %
Oper. EPS in EUR
0.49
0.42
- 14 %
Oper. Cash Flow
132.8
166.6
+ 25 %
Enlarged portfolio due to newly acquired (Q4/2019) Danish wind farms (EUR +9.1 million)
Positive swing of Encavis Asset Management (EUR +8.7 million)
Planned payment of capital gain taxes (EUR 9 million) in Q1/2019 instead of Q4/2018 - Reimbursement from the tax office was expected during the year 2019 but happened in Q1/2020 (total effect: EUR +18 million)
12
9M 2020 vs 9M 2019 - adjusted for weather effects (wa)
Again significant positive weather effects after 9M 2020: EUR + 7.1 million (9M 2019: EUR + 12.9 million)
Operating figures
9M 2019
Weather
9M 2020
Weather
Change
(in EUR million)
adjusted
adjusted
9M 2020 (wa)/
9M 2019 (wa)
9M 2020 (wa)
9M 2019 (wa)
Revenue
223.4
210.5
234.3
227.2
+ 8 %
Oper. EBITDA
185.8
172.9
181.0
173.9
+ 1 %
Oper. EBIT
121.8
108.9
113.2
106.1
- 3 %
!
Improved earnings development post weather adjustments
13
Higher SOP allocations (AM), not yet realised minority sale (wind) and less favourable weather effects (solar) result in Q3 margin decreases
Operating
Solar Parks
Wind Parks
Technical
Asset
HQ
P & L
Services (PV)
Management
(in EUR
million)
9M'19
9M'20
9M'19
9M'20
9M'19
9M'20
9M'19
9M'20
9M'19
9M'20
Revenue
174.9
172.2
44.1
55.6
3.5
3.5
5.4
6.3
-
-
EBITDA
151.1
143.7
38.2
40.8
1.1
3.1
1.6
0.8
- 6.2
- 7.4
EBITDA
86%
83%
86%
73%
31%
87%
29%
13%
-
-
margin
EBIT
104.5
96.0
22.1
21.5
1.0
3.1
1.1
0.4
- 6.9
- 7.9
EBIT margin
60%
56%
50%
39%
30%
87%
20%
6%
-
-
Operating expenses distributed among Business Segments
14
Weather adjusted operating results after 9M 2020 vs 9M 2019 by wind and solar
Operating
Solar Parks
Wind Parks
P & L
(weather
adjusted)
(in EUR million)
9M'19 (wa)
9M'20 (wa)
Change
9M'19 (wa)
9M'20 (wa)
Change
9M'20 (wa) vs.
9M'20 (wa) vs.
9M'19 (wa)
9M'19 (wa)
Revenue
159.8
163.1
+ 2 %
46.3
57.6
+ 24 %
Oper. EBITDA
136.0
134.6
- 1 %
40.4
42.8
+ 6 %
Oper. EBIT
89.4
86.9
- 3 %
24.3
23.5
- 3 %
Strong revenue growth in wind (due to acquired wind farms) & small revenue growth even in solar (due to improved performance) but declining margins due to minority sales in 2019 & stock option programme
15
Securing growth capital (2015 - 2020) while keeping a strong equity ratio
Financing measures implemented (in EUR million)
2020
35
10
2019
48
105
60
2018
50
28
2017
97
44
2016
49
20
25
2015
23
(small) Capital Increase
Bilateral Debt, Bonded and "Green" Loans
Hybrid Convertible
Credit Lines
16
ENCAVIS #1 among the top 50 Western European solar PV portfolio owners is paving the way for attractive growth financing in the future
New ESG investors
First "Green Schuldscheindarlehen"
of EUR 50 million sucessfully placed in 2018
Bond certified by Climate Bond Standard
Executive Board
Encavis got a Primel-Label by ISSESG (former ISS-oekom) and an A-Level by MSCI ESG Ratings
Investment grade issuer rating confirmed in 2020
Encavis received Investment Grade issuer rating by Scope Ratings (BBB-) initiated in 2019
Rating reflects Encavis' risk-adjustedbusiness model, regional diversification as well as the high proportion of non-recoursefinancing
Strong creditworthiness revealed
Positive impact on financing conditions realized
17
ENCAVIS Analysts' Consensus on the five corporate KPIs for Q3/2020e and 9M/2020e as of Nov 11th, 2020
Average Analysts' Consensus for Q3/2020 and for 9M/2020 in general in line with ENCAVIS' results /
Operating EBITDA mainly burdened by higher expenses for the Stock Option Programme (SOP) as planned Operating Cash Flow benefitted from growth in business
Analysts' Consensus
Analysts' Consensus
Average
Extrema
Average
Extrema
(in EUR '000)
Q3 2019
Q3 2020
Q3 2020e
Top
Bottom
9M 2019
9M 2020
9M 2020e
Top
Bottom
Revenues
79,492
79,516
81,026
84,790
73,210
223,406
234,292
235,805
239,550
227,980
Oper. EBITDA
64,979
61,349
65,232
68,200
60,748
185,794
180,964
184,839
187,790
180,360
Oper. EBIT
43,613
38,633
42,505
44,960
38,218
121,781
113,168
117,025
119,460
112,753
Oper. Cash Flow
56,415
51,399
56,010
60,700
52,851
132,775
166,582
171,002
175,900
168,030
Oper. EPS (in EUR)
0.19
0.15
0.180
0.280
0.130
0.49
0.42
0.455
0.550
0.400
18
ENCAVIS Analysts' Consensus on the five corporate KPIs for Q3/2020e and 9M/2020e as of Nov 11th, 2020
Average Analysts' Consensus for FY 2020e is slightly above ENCAVIS' earnings guidance, whereas Analysts' Consensus of Operating Cash Flow is below ENCAVIS' guidance for FY 2020e
Analysts' Consensus
Analysts' Consensus
Average
Extrema
Guidance
Average
Extrema
(in EUR '000)
9M 2019
9M 2020
9M 2020e
Top
Bottom
FY 2020e
FY 2020e
Top
Bottom
Revenues
223,406
234,292
235,805
239,550
227,980
> 280,000
286,345
295,000
280,000
Oper. EBITDA
185,794
180,964
184,839
187,790
180,360
> 220,000
223,726
240,000
220,500
Oper. EBIT
121,781
113,168
117,025
119,460
112,753
> 130,000
133,886
138,786
131,700
Oper. Cash Flow
132,775
166,582
171,002
175,900
168,030
> 200,000
195,775
212,500
151,400
Oper. EPS (in EUR)
0.49
0.42
0.455
0.550
0.400
0.41
0.438
0.500
0.410
19
Moderate growth expected for FY 2020e vs FY 2019 (wa = adjusted for weather effects)
2020e will be a year of transition in which the acquired PPA parks in Spain will have COD in Q3 and in Q4 and new acquisitions don't contribute to 2020e P&L - but step-up in 2021e
Operating figures
FY 2019
Weather
Guidance
Change
Show case
(in EUR million)
adjusted
FY 2020e
Guidance
FY 2021e /
FY 2019 (wa)
FY 2020e /
Change vs.
FY 2019 (wa)
Guidance FY 2020e
Revenue
273.8
263.3
> 280.0
+ 6.3%
up to 320.0 / + 14%
Oper. EBITDA
217.6
210.6
> 220.0
+ 4.5%
Oper. EBIT
132.2
125.2
> 130.0
+ 3.8%
Oper. EPS
0.43
0.40
0.41
+ 2.5%
Oper. Cash flow
189.3
> 200.0
Large Spanish projects Talayuela and La Cabrera will be connected to the grid late in 2020 and distribute significant FY revenue and operating cash flow to the Group in 2021
20
Guidance FY 2020e by Business Segments
Operating
Solar Parks
Technical
Wind Parks
Asset
HQ
P & L
Services
Management
(in EUR
million)
FY
FY 2019
Guidance
FY
Guidance
FY
FY 2019
Guidance
FY
Guidance
FY
Guidance
2019
(wa)
2020e
2019
2020e
2019
(wa)
2020e
2019
2020e
2019
2020e
Revenue
200.1
186.0
> 190
4.7
> 4
63.1
66.7
> 74
11.6
> 12
-
-
EBITDA
167.3
156.7
> 159
1.5
> 2
51.9
55.4
> 62
5.6
> 5
- 8.6
< - 9
EBIT
104.9
94.3
> 95
1.4
> 2
23.8
34.0
> 38
5.0
> 5
- 9.5
< - 10
Guidance based on average meteorological conditions and the already secured solar park and wind farm portfolio
21
Strategic outlook:
>> Fast Forward 2025
22
Encavis Growth Programme: >> Fast Forward 2025
Growth Initiative
Investment in RTB and securing early-stage projects primarily focused on PPA markets
Ongoing opportunistic acquisitions in FiT markets
European focus for the time being
Disposal of minority participations in projects (mainly wind farms) to diversify local wind risk and to recycle cash
Economies of Scale and Scope
Optimisation of
Optimisation of
O&M cost
SPV-financing
Cash pooling
23
Encavis Growth Strategy: >> Fast Forward 2025
Increasing operating
EBITDA (wa) from
EUR 210 to 330 million
and CAGR of 8%
Doubling of signed
own capacity of
1.7 GW (2019) to
3.4 GW and CAGR of 12%
Increasing revenue
(wa) from EUR 260 to EUR 440 million and CAGR of 9%
Increasing oper. EPS (wa)
from EUR 0.40 to 0.70
and CAGR of 10%
Solid equity
ratio of 24%
Operatingor more EBITDA margin
of 75%
24
Selected measures to fulfill: >> Fast Forward 2025
Pipeline
Capacity Growth
> Currently strategic partnerships signed
> 1.7 GW (end of 2019) of signed own capacity
> <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
with several developers
will be doubled to 3.4 GW end of 2025
> Pipeline of more than 3.0 Gigawatt
(GW)
> Thereof currently 1.4 GW COD, end of 2020
minimum secured
1.7 GW and approx. 3.0 GW end of 2025
Recycling of Cash
Recycling of Debt
> Sale of minority stakes up to 49%
> Reduction of EUR ~100 million of debt p.a.
will be continued
at SPV level offers headroom for new debt
> Doubled capacity incl. diversified
in the same amount at corporate level
local wind risks
at better conditions
25
Sustainable business model - Outlook 2025 of Encavis Asset Management
+ 1.5 to 2.5 bn
+ 200 to 300 EUR Investment
+ 15 to 20 new
Megawatt p.a.
Power Plants p.a.
+ 150 to 200 million
EUR Equity p.a.
+ 3 to 5 new
Infrastructure Funds
26
Growth strategy based on 2019 fundamentals only
Profitable growth outside Europe
Profitable business models in storage technology
Potential reserves in equity capital market transactions and dividend policy post 2021
Further opportunities in
Mergers & Acquisitions
Base case scenario: >> Fast Forward 2025
27
The use of
infinite resources - this is our future
28
The "golden end" of ENCAVIS' power plants
Illustration of the different cash flows of a solar park (PV)
In EUR
"golden end"
Closing of
000'
debt
Financial Obligation
reserve
(loan)
accounts
Interest
of FIT
EBT
End
CF to Equity
t2
t3
t4
t5
t6
t7
t8
t9
t10
t11
t12
t13
t14
t15 t16 t17
t18
t19
t20
Time (t)
Assumptions
Solar-park connected to the grid in 2010 with FIT for 20 years (t20)
Park was bought in Q2 2011, 2012 first full year of operation (t2)
Non-recourse project financing will be serviced and paid-off by the park
As the loan is paid-off during the FIT-period, parks are very profitable in the "golden end"
29
"golden end" - PV parks are still with high efficiencies and lowest marginal costs
Module performance in % 100
95
90
85
Performance of PV-modules after 20-years
Example: Cash flow for one solar park
Costs do not exist in golden end or are under Encavis' discretion
17,779
Do not incur
in golden end
58,082
16,096
40,303
5,579
1,826
80
75
Observed performance at our parks
Expected future performance of our PV parks according to observations
16,802
0
10
20
years in service
Performance of solar modules
Revenues OPEX Operating
Loan Interest
Tax Cash Flow
(EUR)
Cash Flow
repay-
ment
30
Lifetime assumptions of PV parks differ nowadays substantially from IFRS accounting standards
Historical accounting rules
According to all GAAP/IFRS
it is mandatory to indicate a useful life for an asset that is capitalized. Due to the lack of historical data (utility-scale plants have been built from 2005 onwards)
accountants and investors have focused on the duration of the subsidy schemes (usually 20 years) and/or of the land leases
(usually 25 to 30 years) to estimate the useful life.
Todays business reality
As the technology has proven to be mature, investors are increasingly extending their
valuation period (up to 50 years) and land lease agreements are currently being renegotiated
or extended to allow a longer operation of the plants.
30 years can be taken for granted:
Performance warranties of 30 years for new modules is currently a "de facto" industry standard
as confirmed by the extracts from official data sheets on the following pages
30 years ++ can be assumed due to following reasons: *)
Consistently dropping technology costs will allow operators to either . . .
Ongoing optimizations of the portfolio at very low replacement costs or
Increase the power of the plants once the subsidy schemes are faded out
There is also an increasing portion of already acquired land as well as strategic ambitions
to acquire the land on which solar plants are operating or are being developed.
Encavis' land leases/acquisitions allow long useful life / Extension . . .
. . . to 30 years in 45% of Portfolio (PF) in NL
. . . to 30 years or longer in > 60% of PF in FRA / in 50% of PF in IT / in 30% of PF in UK
. . . up to 2050 plus unlimited number of extensions of 5-year-periodsin ES / an evergreen contract
PV module warranties of 30 years are current standard (I)
Longi
32
PV module warranties of 30 years are current standard (II)
RISEN ENERGY
Jinko Solar
33
National shutdown plans of nuclear and coal driven generating capacities
COUNTRY
Coal driven Power Plants
Nuclear Power Plants
Germany
Until 2038
47.0 GW
Until 2022
8.1 GW
Poland
----
29.5 GW
----
0.0 GW
Czech Republic
Until 2040*)
8.4 GW
----
3.9 GW
Austria
Today already
0.0 GW
Today already
0.0 GW
Italy
Until 2025
8.5 GW
----
0.0 GW
Spain
Until 2030
5.1 GW
Until 2035
7.1 GW
France
Until 2022
3.1 GW
----
63.1 GW
United Kingdom
Until 2024
6.3 GW
----
8.9 GW
Belgium
Today already
0.0 GW
Until 2025
5.9 GW
The Netherlands
Until 2029
4.5 GW
----
0.5 GW
Denmark
Until 2030
2.2 GW
----
0.0 GW
Sweden
Today already
0.0 GW
Until 2040
7.6 GW
Finland
Until 2029
1.8 GW
----
2.8 GW
TOTAL
116.6 GW
107.9 GW
*) Replace 2/3 of capacity
No plan
Fixed plan
Plans in progress
34
The World is changing: Significant decline in coal-driven energy production
Mind changer in fossil energy production
(Annual coal-driven energy production) TWh
Source: IEA / Forecasted consumption acc. to 'Stated Policies' scenario of the corresponding years (gray) and real data (black) for 2020
35
Surprisingly increasing share of Photovoltaic capacities
Solar Power totally underestimated
(Annual addition
GW
of PV capacities )
Source: IEA / Forecasted addition acc. to 'Stated Policies' scenario of the corresponding years (yellow) and real data (black)
The future is bright
for1 USPrenewablesof Encavis usine smodel. . .
2 Encavis at a glance with record high results in FY 2019
3 The future is bright for renewables 4TheNew erafuture- The growingisPPA market
5 NO impact of. .CoVid.resulting-19 on our businessinmodelgrowing
6brightFY 2019: Guidancefor fulfilled/ FY 2020e: The year of transition
7renewablesStrat gic outlook:demand>> Fast Forwaford 2025Green Energy
8 Appendix: Operational excellence
9 Supportive meteorlogical effects
10 Battery storage
11 The Management
12 The Encavis share
36
21
27
27
36
41
49
52
65
71
75
79
80
37
Worldwide growth in generating capacity of renewables by technology
Capacity growth in GW
1000
800
600
400
200
0
82%
Percentage of
PV/Wind of total
68%
44
45
119
45%
215
Others
28%
31
260
438
Hydropower
Solar PV
176
Wind
14
36
285
321
92
134
39
1994-2004
2005-2010
2011-2016
2017-2022
Source: International Energy Agency 2017
38
Development of Renewable energy proportion in power generation, 2006-2016
Canada
6%
5%
US
9%
3%
UK
Germany
25%
29%
China
2%
9%
10%
6%
Japan
Spain
12%
7%
30%
Italy
13%
25%
Highest Mid / High
Mid
12%
India
4%
6%
Australia
12%
Mid / Low
Lowest
Note: Excludes large hydro;
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Brazil
3%
18%
South Africa
6%
3%
1%
39
Entering the Century of Renewable Power Generation
Gross capacity additions by technology group
Global utility PV and onshore wind capacity
Share in annual capacity additions
In GW
100%
5.500
5.090
5.000
90%
80%
4.500
70%
4.000
3.485
3.500
60%
CAGR +8%
3.000
50%
2.500
40%
2.119
2.000
1.503
30%
1.500
1.134
20%
1.000
566
10%
500
211
0%
0
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Renewables
Nuclear
Fossil Fuels
Large-scale PV
Onshore Wind
40
Demand for power from renewables from two strong players: public & private sector
Public Sector: Goal to limit global warming
COP 21 Paris: 196 countries united to limit global warming below 2°C
Europe 20-20-20 targets
China: largest installed renewables fleets
Denuclearization in Germany and Japan
Creation of low-carb economies
Demand via FIT-schemes and competitive auctions
Private sector: Sustainability goals and long-term supply security
> Private companies create global initiatives in order to take action on climate change.
Multinational companies such as Google, Facebook and Microsoft go ahead with ambitious targets
100% renewable targets help to create a positive brand awareness
Furthermore, direct Power Purchase Agreements between companies and power producers from renewable energy resources offer long-term supply at fixed rates
Demand via PPAs and purchase of green certificates
41
Encavis is a European first mover
42
Competitive generation costs of PV & wind projects opens new business opportunities
Development of global Levelized Costs Of Energy (LCOE)
Forecasted generation costs for large-scale PV
(USD real 2018 /MWh)
and 2021 Forward Prices1(EUR/MWh)
350
52
Merchant PPA
300
50
45
opportunity
44
250
40
46
40
200
38
30
150
100
20
50
10
0
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2019
Spain
Italy
France
1H
1H
1H
1H
1H
1H
2020 expected generations cost for PV
Solar-PV
Onshore wind
2021 Electricity Forward Price (Feb)
In Southern-European markets the generation costs of renewables are already below prices of 2019 Electricity Forwards. This boosts PPA-Markets in countries such as Spain and Italy.
Source: BNEF, Fraunhofer ISE, Fraunhofer ISE Energy Charts, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, 1. Baseload Futures Year Ahead last price as of Feb 14, 2020
43
Solar PV utility scale with comparably low Levelized Costs Of Energy (LCOE) Production
Encavis'
focus
The cost of energy production from conventional sources
is set to increase, as prices for CO2emissions in the EU rise with the application of taxes and certificates
(2nd phase of the EU CO2 certificate trading scheme and additional national legislations)
Securing the
cost advantage for renewable energy in the long term.
Source: CM-CIC Research on "Renewable Energies" covering Albioma, Encavis and Voltalia, June 5th, 2020
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LCOE/Levelized Costs Of Energy Production continue to fall for PV/solar and wind power technologies
Today, plant construction costs (including components and materials)
in utility scale (10 MW and above) in Europe vary between EUR 0.4m/
MWp and EUR 0.475 m/MWp, including 30 years warranty on key
components such as modules. Common expectations are further decreases in the near, mid and long term.
Current O&M prices are at around 3.5 to 7 EUR/KW according to the age and size of the plant. The termination of old contracts and renegotiation of the terms will lead to a substantial reduction in the average O&M expenditures.
We expect additional reduction in O&M costs due to consolidation in the O&M market and increase of professionalization in the market.
Encavis' strategic move: Participation in Stern Energy (O&M company with 1+GW under management) and standardization of all O&M activities.
Source: IRENA, International Renewable Energy Agency, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019
45
Strong decline in LCOE/Levelized Costs Of Energy Production for PV/solar is mainly driven by PV module prices
Price development for PV modules (USD real 2,000/Wp)
This cost decrease applies to park maintenance,
lease payments and interest rates as well.
Source: BNEF, Warburg Research on SDAX, Renewables, Encavis, 07.09.2020
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Electricity price fluctuations due to the Merit Order Effect
In the very conservative assumption of an energy only market, thus a market in which only the produced power is compensated, without any compensation for the mere readiness for power production (capacity market), the power price would be determined by the "merit order" - the sequence in which power stations contribute power to the market, with the cheapest offer made by the power station with the smallest operating costs setting the starting point - and not by the LCOE.
While it is true that renewables lower the entrance price due to their low operating costs and push more expensive conventional producers down the merit order
(see chart to the left), it is also true that the price for the energy is set by the plant with the highest operating cost that is still necessary to be activated in order to meet the demand.
Positive development of PPA power prices are seen by all leading energy price forecasters
Liquid Market Horizon
Illiquid Market Horizon
Long-term PPAs
Standard products
Power Price
LCOE for Solar PV as of June 2020…
Baseload
...are expected to decrease further
2021
2026
2031
2036
Forecast 1
Forecast 2
Forecast 3
All major forecasters of energy prices do see positive development of energy prices in the future.
Main drivers for energy prices
are: CO2 certificate prices, capacity additions of renewables acompanied with cut down of capacities of conventional power plants.
Even the most conservative forecaster (#3) sees energy market prices which are fairly above current (and, obviously, future) LCOEs enabeling additional investments into renewables.
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ENCAVIS manages uncertainties in power demand, power supply and corresponding pricing risks
Sophisticated Energy risk management as key value leaver short to mid term:
Traded products in liquid markets (1-5 years ahead)
PPAs for non-liquid markets (5 years ++)
Matching inherent energy risks by portfolio optimization
European goal for CO2 free power production will either lead to . . .
aCO2price regime as part of power prices in order to stimulate investments in Renewable Energy
the introduction ofcapacity markets for Renewable Energy (REE) in order to allow for new build
a self-regulatedenergy only market where power prices incentivize enough new build capacities in REE
Long-term price curves*) observation as well as introduction of proprietary energy pricing model
Captured prices for solar and wind (accounting for the expected cannibalization effect)
Introduction of storage as appropriate
*) from various reknowed 3rd party providers
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The Management
50
Management team with great industry expertise and strong passion for renewables
Dr Dierk Paskert
Chief Executive Officer
CEO since Sep 2017
Reappointed until Aug 2025
CEO Rohstoffallianz GmbH
Member of the Management Board of E.ON-Energie AG SVP Corporate Development of E.ON AG
Member of the Management Board of Schenker AG
Dr Christoph Husmann
Chief Financial Officer
CFO since Oct 2014
Reappointed until Sep 2025
Member (CFO) and later CEO of the Management Board of HOCHTIEF Projekt Entwicklung GmbH
Head of Corporate Controlling and M&A of STINNES AG and HOCHTIEF AG Controlling of VEBA AG
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Supervisory Board
Dr Manfred Krüper (Chairman)
Member of the Board of Directors at E.ON AG (until Nov 2006)
Supervisory Board (a.o.): Power Plus Communication AG,
EQT Partners Beteiligungsberatung GmbH; EEW Energy from Waste GmbH
Peter Heidecker (dependent)
Chairman of the Supervisory Board at
CHORUS Clean Energy AG (until Oct 2016)
Founder of the CHORUS GmbH in 1998
Supervisory Board (a.o.):
Auszeit Hotel & Resort AG
Christine Scheel
Member of the Supervisory Board at
CHORUS Clean Energy AG (until Oct 2016)
Former Member of the German Parliament
Supervisory Board (a.o.):
NATURSTROM AG
Alexander Stuhlmann (Dep. Ch.)
CEO at HSH Nordbank (until Dec 2006) and thereafter CEO at WestLB AG (until April 2008)
Supervisory Board (a.o.): Euro-AviationVersicherungs-AG, Ernst Russ AG, GEV Gesell- schaft für Entwicklung und Vermarktung AG, M.M. Warburg & CO Hypothekenbank AG
Dr Henning Kreke (dependent)
Previously CEO at Douglas Holding AG for 15 years
Supervisory Board (a.o.): Deutsche EuroShop AG; Douglas GmbH, Thalia Bücher GmbH
The information provided in this document has been derived from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information and we do not assume any responsibility for it. Encavis AG assumes no liability for any errors or omissions or for any resulting financial losses. Investments in capital markets, in particular in stock markets and futures markets, are fundamentally associated with risks and a complete loss of the invested capital cannot be ruled out. Recommendations provided herein do not represent an offer to buy or sell and are not intended to replace comprehensive and thorough advice before making a decision to buy or sell. Copies of the content of this presentation, in particular prints and copies or publications in electronic media, will only be authorized by written consent from Encavis AG.
Encavis AG published this content on 16 November 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 16 November 2020 08:20:04 UTC