Welcome to the world of Encavis - Interim Statement Q3/9M 2020 dominated by strong operating Cash Flow
Encavis AG, Interim Statement Q3/9M 2020, Conference Call, November 16th, 2020
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ENCAVIS: Improving efficiency and cost reduction through Economies of Scale and Economies of Scope
ENergy
Energy forms the basis of our collective activity and work
CApital
We invest capital to acquire wind farms and solar parks to generate attractive returns
Encavis Asset
Management
ENCAVIS AG
Encavis Technical
Services /
Stern Energy
VISion
We are working towards a future with decentralised power generation from wind power and solar energy
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Highlights from July to November 2020
- ENCAVIS set a clear commitment to sustainability and responsible action and published first insights into its sustainability strategy on its homepage at:www.encavis.com/en/sustainability/
- Warburg Research re-initiated active coverage of Encavis AG on Sep 7th with "BUY" recommendation and a target price of EUR 17.20
- HSBC Germany initiated active coverage of Encavis AG on Sep 28th with "BUY" recommendation and a target price of EUR 21.00
- BlackRock increased their shareholdings in Encavis AG from 3.51% to 4.07% to 5.76%
Share | Wind farms and |
Solar parks |
Encavis Asset
Management Finance
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Highlights from July to November 2020
1ENCAVIS expands its participation in its solar park portfolio in France | Share |
and now owns 100% of all its French solar parks and 95% of all solar parks | |
in the portfolio |
Wind farms and
Solar parks
2 Encavis Asset Management AG acquires additional wind farms in France for special fund 'Encavis Infrastructure Fund II' as well as a floating solar park in The Netherlands
Encavis Asset Management
v
Finance
Highlights from July to November 2020
ENCAVIS successfully secured a EUR 63.8 million non-recourse project
-
refinancing for a portfolio of 10 ground-mounted photovoltaic plants located in Italy with a total capacity of 29.1 megawatts (MW)
SCOPE Ratings affirms its investment grade issuer rating BBB- with - stable outlook on Encavis AG and Encavis Finance BV in an updated analysis in October 2020
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Share | Wind farms and |
Solar parks |
Encavis Asset | v |
Management | Finance |
La Cabrera
200 MW PV park "La Cabrera" is already connected to the grid
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- The High Voltage section (substation and transmission line) is grid connected and energized since August 2020.
- The power plant is fully built up and achieved to start partial operations on September 3rd, while all sections were in operations since October 1st.
- At the end of October the cumulated actual production
of energy was approximately 30,000 MWh despite the fact that the plant was still in commissioning phase. - First invoices of energy production for the months of September and October were sent to AWS amazon web service in Spain.
Required as per EPC contract | |
Grid Connection | Date for Completion |
08/18/2020 | 10/20/2020 |
Planned Key Dates |
Date for Commissioning 08/25/2020
- PV plant is connected to the grid already.
- The agreed extra costs due to CoVid-19 are equal to TEUR 240 as of end of October.
Talayuela
Construction of 300 MW PV park "Talayuela" well underway
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- All components and materials are on site.
- The whole HV section is finished off currently the cold commissioning activities are going on. The HV section is expected to be grid connected by end of November 2020.
- In the photovoltaic section:
- 100% of the posts are installed,
- 100% of the tracker are assembled,
- 97.3% of the modules are installed.
The modules installation is expected to be finalized by end of November.
- The electrical works (installation of cables, inverters, transformers, switches, security system and SCADA) are expected to be completed by end of November.
Required as per EPC contract | |
Grid Connection | Date for Completion |
11/23/2020 | 01/25/2021 |
Planned Key Dates |
Date for Commissioning 11/30/2020 (latest on 01/10/2021)
- Grid connection is expected to occur during second half of December and the subsequent hot commissioning is expected to start first week of January.
- Expected delay due to CoVid-19 outbreak in the range of four weeks.
- Agreed extra costs due to Covid pandemic in spring are equal to TEUR 250.
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Strong growing PPA markets - ENCAVIS is a European first mover in solar
Pillars of the Encavis | ||||||||||
Growth Strategy >> Fast Forward 2025 | ||||||||||
Encavis has secured | Leveraging knowledge and | Strong Balance Sheet | ||||||||
preferred access to know- | network as experienced | with equity ratio > 24% | ||||||||
how for PPA by establishing | investor based on recently | giving corporates | ||||||||
a dedicated in-house | signed PPAs with | adequate comfort | ||||||||
competence team and | a leading European Utility | to handle risks from | ||||||||
by investing in market | and Amazon for in total of | long-term PPA contracts | ||||||||
leading competence platform | 500 MW of Spanish solar | |||||||||
Pexapark (CH) | parks | |||||||||
Access to early stage projects without taking direct development risk by signing numerous partnership agreements with exclusive rights in Italy, France, Spain, The Netherlands, Denmark and Germany
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Again strong 9M 2020 in line with guidance besides some one-time effects from disposal of minorities, meteorological effects and the virtual Stock Option Programme (SOP)
Operating figures Q1 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q3 2019 Q3 2020 9M 2019 9M 2020 (in EUR million)
Revenue | 59.5 | 65.2 | 84.5 | 89.6 | 79.5 | 79.5 | 223.4 | 234.3 |
Oper. EBITDA | 44.7 | 50.6 | 76.1 | 69.0 | 65.0 | 61.4 | 185.8 | 181.0 |
Oper. EBIT | 23.4 | 28.1 | 54.8 | 46.4 | 43.6 | 38.7 | 121.8 | 113.2 |
Oper. Cashflow | 15.9 | 50.8 | 60.5 | 64.4 | 56.4 | 51.4 | 132.8 | 166.6 |
Oper. EPS (EUR) | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.49 | 0.42 |
! | Detailed explanations on the following pages . . . | |
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However, timing effects and the increase in the stock price reduced the improvement of key figures
Operating figures | 9M 2019 | 9M 2020 | Change | ||
(in EUR million) | 6M 2020/2019 | ||||
Revenue | 223.4 | 234.3 | + 5 % | ||
Oper. EBITDA | 185.8 | 181.0 | - 3 % | ||
Oper. EBIT | 121.8 | 113.2 | - 7 % | ||
Oper. EPS in EUR | 0.49 | 0.42 | - 14 % | ||
Oper. Cash Flow | 132.8 | 166.6 | + 25 % | ||
- Positive meteorological effect after 9M 2019 of EUR 12.9 m compared to 9M 2020 of EUR 7.1 m (EUR -5.8 m)
- Profit from disposal of participations after 9M 2019 of EUR 5.9 m comp. to 9M 2020 of EUR 1.9 m (EUR -4 m)
- Provisions for the virtual Stock Option Programme for the Management due to strong stock price development: after 9M 2019 EUR -1.1 m compared to 9M 2020 EUR -4.0 m (EUR -2.9 m)
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Significant revenue and cash flow increases after 9M 2020 vs. 9M 2019
Operating figures | 9M 2019 | 9M 2020 | Change | ||
(in EUR million) | 9M 2020/2019 | ||||
Revenue | 223.4 | 234.3 | + 5 % | ||
Oper. EBITDA | 185.8 | 181.0 | - 3 % | ||
Oper. EBIT | 121.8 | 113.2 | - 7 % | ||
Oper. EPS in EUR | 0.49 | 0.42 | - 14 % | ||
Oper. Cash Flow | 132.8 | 166.6 | + 25 % | ||
- Enlarged portfolio due to newly acquired (Q4/2019) Danish wind farms (EUR +9.1 million)
- Positive swing of Encavis Asset Management (EUR +8.7 million)
- Planned payment of capital gain taxes (EUR 9 million) in Q1/2019 instead of Q4/2018 - Reimbursement from the tax office was expected during the year 2019 but happened in Q1/2020 (total effect: EUR +18 million)
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9M 2020 vs 9M 2019 - adjusted for weather effects (wa)
Again significant positive weather effects after 9M 2020: EUR + 7.1 million (9M 2019: EUR + 12.9 million)
Operating figures | 9M 2019 | Weather | 9M 2020 | Weather | Change | |
(in EUR million) | adjusted | adjusted | 9M 2020 (wa)/ | |||
9M 2019 (wa) | 9M 2020 (wa) | 9M 2019 (wa) | ||||
Revenue | 223.4 | 210.5 | 234.3 | 227.2 | + 8 % | |
Oper. EBITDA | 185.8 | 172.9 | 181.0 | 173.9 | + 1 % | |
Oper. EBIT | 121.8 | 108.9 | 113.2 | 106.1 | - 3 % | |
! | Improved earnings development post weather adjustments | |
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Higher SOP allocations (AM), not yet realised minority sale (wind) and less favourable weather effects (solar) result in Q3 margin decreases
Operating | Solar Parks | Wind Parks | Technical | Asset | HQ | |||||||
P & L | Services (PV) | Management | ||||||||||
(in EUR | ||||||||||||
million) | ||||||||||||
9M'19 | 9M'20 | 9M'19 | 9M'20 | 9M'19 | 9M'20 | 9M'19 | 9M'20 | 9M'19 | 9M'20 | |||
Revenue | 174.9 | 172.2 | 44.1 | 55.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 6.3 | - | - | ||
EBITDA | 151.1 | 143.7 | 38.2 | 40.8 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | - 6.2 | - 7.4 | ||
EBITDA | 86% | 83% | 86% | 73% | 31% | 87% | 29% | 13% | - | - | ||
margin | ||||||||||||
EBIT | 104.5 | 96.0 | 22.1 | 21.5 | 1.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | - 6.9 | - 7.9 | ||
EBIT margin | 60% | 56% | 50% | 39% | 30% | 87% | 20% | 6% | - | - | ||
- Operating expenses distributed among Business Segments
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Weather adjusted operating results after 9M 2020 vs 9M 2019 by wind and solar
Operating | Solar Parks | Wind Parks | ||||
P & L | ||||||
(weather | ||||||
adjusted) | ||||||
(in EUR million) | 9M'19 (wa) | 9M'20 (wa) | Change | 9M'19 (wa) | 9M'20 (wa) | Change |
9M'20 (wa) vs. | 9M'20 (wa) vs. | |||||
9M'19 (wa) | 9M'19 (wa) | |||||
Revenue | 159.8 | 163.1 | + 2 % | 46.3 | 57.6 | + 24 % |
Oper. EBITDA | 136.0 | 134.6 | - 1 % | 40.4 | 42.8 | + 6 % |
Oper. EBIT | 89.4 | 86.9 | - 3 % | 24.3 | 23.5 | - 3 % |
- Strong revenue growth in wind (due to acquired wind farms) & small revenue growth even in solar (due to improved performance) but declining margins due to minority sales in 2019 & stock option programme
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Securing growth capital (2015 - 2020) while keeping a strong equity ratio
Financing measures implemented (in EUR million)
2020 | 35 | 10 | |||
2019 | 48 | 105 | 60 | ||
2018 | 50 | 28 | |||
2017 | 97 | 44 | |||
2016 | 49 | 20 | 25 | ||
2015 | 23 | ||||
(small) Capital Increase | Bilateral Debt, Bonded and "Green" Loans | Hybrid Convertible | Credit Lines | ||||
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ENCAVIS #1 among the top 50 Western European solar PV portfolio owners is paving the way for attractive growth financing in the future
New ESG investors
First "Green Schuldscheindarlehen"
of EUR 50 million sucessfully placed in 2018
Bond certified by Climate Bond Standard
Executive Board
Encavis got a Primel-Label by ISS ESG (former ISS-oekom) and an A-Level by MSCI ESG Ratings
Investment grade issuer rating confirmed in 2020
Encavis received Investment Grade issuer rating by Scope Ratings (BBB-) initiated in 2019
Rating reflects Encavis' risk-adjustedbusiness model, regional diversification as well as the high proportion of non-recoursefinancing
Strong creditworthiness revealed
Positive impact on financing conditions realized
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ENCAVIS Analysts' Consensus on the five corporate KPIs for Q3/2020e and 9M/2020e as of Nov 11th, 2020
-
Average Analysts' Consensus for Q3/2020 and for 9M/2020 in general in line with ENCAVIS' results /
Operating EBITDA mainly burdened by higher expenses for the Stock Option Programme (SOP) as planned Operating Cash Flow benefitted from growth in business
Analysts' Consensus | Analysts' Consensus | ||||||||||||||
Average | Extrema | Average | Extrema | ||||||||||||
(in EUR '000) | Q3 2019 | Q3 2020 | Q3 2020e | Top | Bottom | 9M 2019 | 9M 2020 | 9M 2020e | Top | Bottom | |||||
Revenues | 79,492 | 79,516 | 81,026 | 84,790 | 73,210 | 223,406 | 234,292 | 235,805 | 239,550 | 227,980 | |||||
Oper. EBITDA | 64,979 | 61,349 | 65,232 | 68,200 | 60,748 | 185,794 | 180,964 | 184,839 | 187,790 | 180,360 | |||||
Oper. EBIT | 43,613 | 38,633 | 42,505 | 44,960 | 38,218 | 121,781 | 113,168 | 117,025 | 119,460 | 112,753 | |||||
Oper. Cash Flow | 56,415 | 51,399 | 56,010 | 60,700 | 52,851 | 132,775 | 166,582 | 171,002 | 175,900 | 168,030 | |||||
Oper. EPS (in EUR) | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.180 | 0.280 | 0.130 | 0.49 | 0.42 | 0.455 | 0.550 | 0.400 |
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ENCAVIS Analysts' Consensus on the five corporate KPIs for Q3/2020e and 9M/2020e as of Nov 11th, 2020
- Average Analysts' Consensus for FY 2020e is slightly above ENCAVIS' earnings guidance, whereas Analysts' Consensus of Operating Cash Flow is below ENCAVIS' guidance for FY 2020e
Analysts' Consensus | Analysts' Consensus | ||||||||||||
Average | Extrema | Guidance | Average | Extrema | |||||||||
(in EUR '000) | 9M 2019 | 9M 2020 | 9M 2020e | Top | Bottom | FY 2020e | FY 2020e | Top | Bottom | ||||
Revenues | 223,406 | 234,292 | 235,805 | 239,550 | 227,980 | > 280,000 | 286,345 | 295,000 | 280,000 | ||||
Oper. EBITDA | 185,794 | 180,964 | 184,839 | 187,790 | 180,360 | > 220,000 | 223,726 | 240,000 | 220,500 | ||||
Oper. EBIT | 121,781 | 113,168 | 117,025 | 119,460 | 112,753 | > 130,000 | 133,886 | 138,786 | 131,700 | ||||
Oper. Cash Flow | 132,775 | 166,582 | 171,002 | 175,900 | 168,030 | > 200,000 | 195,775 | 212,500 | 151,400 | ||||
Oper. EPS (in EUR) | 0.49 | 0.42 | 0.455 | 0.550 | 0.400 | 0.41 | 0.438 | 0.500 | 0.410 |
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Moderate growth expected for FY 2020e vs FY 2019 (wa = adjusted for weather effects)
2020e will be a year of transition in which the acquired PPA parks in Spain will have COD in Q3 and in Q4 and new acquisitions don't contribute to 2020e P&L - but step-up in 2021e
Operating figures | FY 2019 | Weather | Guidance | Change | Show case | ||||
(in EUR million) | adjusted | FY 2020e | Guidance | FY 2021e / | |||||
FY 2019 (wa) | FY 2020e / | Change vs. | |||||||
FY 2019 (wa) | Guidance FY 2020e | ||||||||
Revenue | 273.8 | 263.3 | > 280.0 | + 6.3% | up to 320.0 / + 14% | ||||
Oper. EBITDA | 217.6 | 210.6 | > 220.0 | + 4.5% | |||||
Oper. EBIT | 132.2 | 125.2 | > 130.0 | + 3.8% | |||||
Oper. EPS | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.41 | + 2.5% | |||||
Oper. Cash flow | 189.3 | > 200.0 | |||||||
- Large Spanish projects Talayuela and La Cabrera will be connected to the grid late in 2020 and distribute significant FY revenue and operating cash flow to the Group in 2021
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Guidance FY 2020e by Business Segments
Operating | Solar Parks | Technical | Wind Parks | Asset | HQ | |||||||
P & L | Services | Management | ||||||||||
(in EUR | ||||||||||||
million) | ||||||||||||
FY | FY 2019 | Guidance | FY | Guidance | FY | FY 2019 | Guidance | FY | Guidance | FY | Guidance | |
2019 | (wa) | 2020e | 2019 | 2020e | 2019 | (wa) | 2020e | 2019 | 2020e | 2019 | 2020e | |
Revenue | 200.1 | 186.0 | > 190 | 4.7 | > 4 | 63.1 | 66.7 | > 74 | 11.6 | > 12 | - | - |
EBITDA | 167.3 | 156.7 | > 159 | 1.5 | > 2 | 51.9 | 55.4 | > 62 | 5.6 | > 5 | - 8.6 | < - 9 |
EBIT | 104.9 | 94.3 | > 95 | 1.4 | > 2 | 23.8 | 34.0 | > 38 | 5.0 | > 5 | - 9.5 | < - 10 |
- Guidance based on average meteorological conditions and the already secured solar park and wind farm portfolio
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Encavis Growth Programme: >> Fast Forward 2025
Growth Initiative
- Investment in RTB and securing early-stage projects primarily focused on PPA markets
- Ongoing opportunistic acquisitions in FiT markets
- European focus for the time being
- Disposal of minority participations in projects (mainly wind farms) to diversify local wind risk and to recycle cash
Economies of Scale and Scope
Optimisation of | Optimisation of |
O&M cost | SPV-financing |
Cash pooling
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Encavis Growth Strategy: >> Fast Forward 2025
Increasing operating
EBITDA (wa) from
EUR 210 to 330 million
and CAGR of 8%
Doubling of signed
own capacity of
1.7 GW (2019) to
3.4 GW and CAGR of 12%
Increasing revenue
(wa) from EUR 260 to EUR 440 million and CAGR of 9%
Increasing oper. EPS (wa)
from EUR 0.40 to 0.70
and CAGR of 10%
Solid equity
ratio of 24%
Operatingor more EBITDA margin
of 75%
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Selected measures to fulfill: >> Fast Forward 2025
Pipeline | Capacity Growth | ||
> Currently strategic partnerships signed | > 1.7 GW (end of 2019) of signed own capacity | ||
><<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< | |||
with several developers | will be doubled to 3.4 GW end of 2025 | ||
> Pipeline of more than 3.0 Gigawatt | (GW) | > Thereof currently 1.4 GW COD, end of 2020 | |
minimum secured | 1.7 GW and approx. 3.0 GW end of 2025 | ||
Recycling of Cash | Recycling of Debt | ||
> Sale of minority stakes up to 49% | > Reduction of EUR ~100 million of debt p.a. | ||
will be continued | at SPV level offers headroom for new debt | ||
> Doubled capacity incl. diversified | in the same amount at corporate level | ||
local wind risks | at better conditions | ||
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Sustainable business model - Outlook 2025 of Encavis Asset Management
+ 1.5 to 2.5 bn
+ 200 to 300 EUR Investment
+ 15 to 20 new | Megawatt p.a. |
Power Plants p.a. | |
+ 150 to 200 million | |
EUR Equity p.a. | |
+ 3 to 5 new | |
Infrastructure Funds |
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Growth strategy based on 2019 fundamentals only
Profitable growth outside Europe
Profitable business models in storage technology
Potential reserves in equity capital market transactions and dividend policy post 2021
Further opportunities in
Mergers & Acquisitions
Base case scenario: >> Fast Forward 2025
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The "golden end" of ENCAVIS' power plants
Illustration of the different cash flows of a solar park (PV)
In EUR | "golden end" | ||||||||||||||||
Closing of | |||||||||||||||||
000' | |||||||||||||||||
debt | |||||||||||||||||
Financial Obligation | |||||||||||||||||
reserve | |||||||||||||||||
(loan) | |||||||||||||||||
accounts | |||||||||||||||||
Interest | of FIT | ||||||||||||||||
EBT | |||||||||||||||||
End | |||||||||||||||||
CF to Equity | |||||||||||||||||
t2 | t3 | t4 | t5 | t6 | t7 | t8 | t9 | t10 | t11 | t12 | t13 | t14 | t15 t16 t17 | t18 | t19 | t20 | Time (t) |
Assumptions
Solar-park connected to the grid in 2010 with FIT for 20 years (t20)
Park was bought in Q2 2011, 2012 first full year of operation (t2)
Non-recourse project financing will be serviced and paid-off by the park
- As the loan is paid-off during the FIT-period, parks are very profitable in the "golden end"
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"golden end" - PV parks are still with high efficiencies and lowest marginal costs
Module performance in % 100
95
90
85
Performance of PV-modules after 20-years
Example: Cash flow for one solar park
Costs do not exist in golden end or are under Encavis' discretion
17,779 | |
Do not incur | |
in golden end | |
58,082 | 16,096 |
40,303 | 5,579 |
1,826 | |
80
75
Observed performance at our parks
Expected future performance of our PV parks according to observations
16,802
0
10 | 20 | years in service |
Performance of solar modules
Revenues OPEX Operating | Loan Interest | Tax Cash Flow | |
(EUR) | Cash Flow | repay- | |
ment | |||
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Lifetime assumptions of PV parks differ nowadays substantially from IFRS accounting standards
Historical accounting rules
According to all GAAP/IFRS
it is mandatory to indicate a useful life for an asset that is capitalized. Due to the lack of historical data (utility-scale plants have been built from 2005 onwards)
accountants and investors have focused on the duration of the subsidy schemes (usually 20 years) and/or of the land leases
(usually 25 to 30 years) to estimate the useful life.
Todays business reality
As the technology has proven to be mature, investors are increasingly extending their
valuation period (up to 50 years) and land lease agreements are currently being renegotiated
or extended to allow a longer operation of the plants.
30 years can be taken for granted:
Performance warranties of 30 years for new modules is currently a "de facto" industry standard
as confirmed by the extracts from official data sheets on the following pages
30 years ++ can be assumed due to following reasons: *)
Consistently dropping technology costs will allow operators to either . . .
- Ongoing optimizations of the portfolio at very low replacement costs or
- Increase the power of the plants once the subsidy schemes are faded out
There is also an increasing portion of already acquired land as well as strategic ambitions
to acquire the land on which solar plants are operating or are being developed.
Encavis' land leases/acquisitions allow long useful life / Extension . . .
. . . to 30 years in 45% of Portfolio (PF) in NL
. . . to 30 years or longer in > 60% of PF in FRA / in 50% of PF in IT / in 30% of PF in UK
. . . up to 2050 plus unlimited number of extensions of 5-year-periodsin ES / an evergreen contract
*) https://www.pv-magazine.com/2018/12/17/revamping-and-repowering-the-size-of-the-opportunity/
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PV module warranties of 30 years are current standard (I)
Longi
32
PV module warranties of 30 years are current standard (II)
RISEN ENERGY
Jinko Solar
33
National shutdown plans of nuclear and coal driven generating capacities
COUNTRY | Coal driven Power Plants | Nuclear Power Plants | |||||||||||
Germany | Until 2038 | 47.0 GW | Until 2022 | 8.1 GW | |||||||||
Poland | ---- | 29.5 GW | ---- | 0.0 GW | |||||||||
Czech Republic | Until 2040*) | 8.4 GW | ---- | 3.9 GW | |||||||||
Austria | Today already | 0.0 GW | Today already | 0.0 GW | |||||||||
Italy | Until 2025 | 8.5 GW | ---- | 0.0 GW | |||||||||
Spain | Until 2030 | 5.1 GW | Until 2035 | 7.1 GW | |||||||||
France | Until 2022 | 3.1 GW | ---- | 63.1 GW | |||||||||
United Kingdom | Until 2024 | 6.3 GW | ---- | 8.9 GW | |||||||||
Belgium | Today already | 0.0 GW | Until 2025 | 5.9 GW | |||||||||
The Netherlands | Until 2029 | 4.5 GW | ---- | 0.5 GW | |||||||||
Denmark | Until 2030 | 2.2 GW | ---- | 0.0 GW | |||||||||
Sweden | Today already | 0.0 GW | Until 2040 | 7.6 GW | |||||||||
Finland | Until 2029 | 1.8 GW | ---- | 2.8 GW | |||||||||
TOTAL | 116.6 GW | 107.9 GW |
*) Replace 2/3 of capacity
No plan
Fixed plan
Plans in progress
34
The World is changing: Significant decline in coal-driven energy production
Mind changer in fossil energy production
(Annual coal-driven energy production) TWh
Source: IEA / Forecasted consumption acc. to 'Stated Policies' scenario of the corresponding years (gray) and real data (black) for 2020
35
Surprisingly increasing share of Photovoltaic capacities
Solar Power totally underestimated
(Annual addition | GW |
of PV capacities ) |
Source: IEA / Forecasted addition acc. to 'Stated Policies' scenario of the corresponding years (yellow) and real data (black)
The future is bright
for1 USPrenewablesof Encavis usine smodel. . .
2 Encavis at a glance with record high results in FY 2019
3 The future is bright for renewables 4TheNew erafuture- The growingisPPA market
5 NO impact of. .CoVid.resulting-19 on our businessinmodelgrowing
6brightFY 2019: Guidancefor fulfilled/ FY 2020e: The year of transition
7renewablesStrat gic outlook:demand>> Fast Forwaford 2025Green Energy
8 Appendix: Operational excellence
9 Supportive meteorlogical effects
10 Battery storage
11 The Management
12 The Encavis share
37
Worldwide growth in generating capacity of renewables by technology
Capacity growth in GW
1000
800
600
400
200
0
82% | Percentage of |
PV/Wind of total
68% | 44 | ||||
45 | 119 | ||||
45% | |||||
215 | Others | ||||
28% | 31 | 260 | 438 | Hydropower | |
Solar PV | |||||
176 | Wind | ||||
14 | 36 | 285 | 321 | ||
92 | 134 | ||||
39 | |||||
1994-2004 | 2005-2010 | 2011-2016 | 2017-2022 |
Source: International Energy Agency 2017
38
Development of Renewable energy proportion in power generation, 2006-2016
Canada
6%
5%
US
9%
3%
UK | Germany | |
25% | 29% | China |
2% | 9% | |
10% | ||
6% | ||
Japan | ||
Spain | 12% | |
7% | ||
30% | Italy | |
13% | 25% |
Highest Mid / High
Mid
12%
India
4%
6%
Australia
12%
Mid / Low
Lowest
Note: Excludes large hydro;
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Brazil | 3% | ||
18% | South Africa | ||
6% | |||
3% | |||
1% |
39
Entering the Century of Renewable Power Generation
Gross capacity additions by technology group | Global utility PV and onshore wind capacity |
Share in annual capacity additions | In GW |
100% | 5.500 | 5.090 | |||||||||||
5.000 | |||||||||||||
90% | |||||||||||||
80% | 4.500 | ||||||||||||
70% | 4.000 | 3.485 | |||||||||||
3.500 | |||||||||||||
60% | CAGR +8% | ||||||||||||
3.000 | |||||||||||||
50% | |||||||||||||
2.500 | |||||||||||||
40% | 2.119 | ||||||||||||
2.000 | |||||||||||||
1.503 | |||||||||||||
30% | 1.500 | ||||||||||||
1.134 | |||||||||||||
20% | |||||||||||||
1.000 | 566 | ||||||||||||
10% | 500 | ||||||||||||
211 | |||||||||||||
0% | 0 | ||||||||||||
2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | |
Renewables | Nuclear | Fossil Fuels | Large-scale PV | Onshore Wind |
40
Demand for power from renewables from two strong players: public & private sector
Public Sector: Goal to limit global warming
- COP 21 Paris: 196 countries united to limit global warming below 2°C
- Europe 20-20-20 targets
- China: largest installed renewables fleets
- Denuclearization in Germany and Japan
- Creation of low-carb economies
Demand via FIT-schemes and competitive auctions
Private sector: Sustainability goals and long-term supply security
> Private companies create global initiatives in order to take action on climate change.
- Multinational companies such as Google, Facebook and Microsoft go ahead with ambitious targets
- 100% renewable targets help to create a positive brand awareness
- Furthermore, direct Power Purchase Agreements between companies and power producers from renewable energy resources offer long-term supply at fixed rates
Demand via PPAs and purchase of green certificates
41
Encavis is a European first mover
42
Competitive generation costs of PV & wind projects opens new business opportunities | |||||||||
Development of global Levelized Costs Of Energy (LCOE) | Forecasted generation costs for large-scale PV | ||||||||
(USD real 2018 /MWh) | and 2021 Forward Prices1 (EUR/MWh) | ||||||||
350 | 52 | Merchant PPA | |||||||
300 | 50 | 45 | opportunity | ||||||
44 | |||||||||
250 | 40 | 46 | |||||||
40 | |||||||||
200 | 38 | ||||||||
30 | |||||||||
150 | |||||||||
100 | 20 | ||||||||
50 | 10 | ||||||||
0 | 0 | ||||||||
2010 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | Spain | Italy | France | |
1H | 1H | 1H | 1H | 1H | 1H | ||||
2020 expected generations cost for PV | |||||||||
Solar-PV | Onshore wind | ||||||||
2021 Electricity Forward Price (Feb) | |||||||||
- In Southern-European markets the generation costs of renewables are already below prices of 2019 Electricity Forwards. This boosts PPA-Markets in countries such as Spain and Italy.
Source: BNEF, Fraunhofer ISE, Fraunhofer ISE Energy Charts, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, 1. Baseload Futures Year Ahead last price as of Feb 14, 2020
43
Solar PV utility scale with comparably low Levelized Costs Of Energy (LCOE) Production
Encavis'
focus
The cost of energy production from conventional sources
is set to increase, as prices for CO2 emissions in the EU rise with the application of taxes and certificates
(2nd phase of the EU CO2 certificate trading scheme and additional national legislations)
Securing the
cost advantage for renewable energy in the long term.
Source: CM-CIC Research on "Renewable Energies" covering Albioma, Encavis and Voltalia, June 5th, 2020
44
LCOE/Levelized Costs Of Energy Production continue to fall for PV/solar and wind power technologies
Today, plant construction costs (including components and materials)
in utility scale (10 MW and above) in Europe vary between EUR 0.4m/
MWp and EUR 0.475 m/MWp, including 30 years warranty on key
components such as modules. Common expectations are further decreases in the near, mid and long term.
Current O&M prices are at around 3.5 to 7 EUR/KW according to the age and size of the plant. The termination of old contracts and renegotiation of the terms will lead to a substantial reduction in the average O&M expenditures.
We expect additional reduction in O&M costs due to consolidation in the O&M market and increase of professionalization in the market.
Encavis' strategic move: Participation in Stern Energy (O&M company with 1+GW under management) and standardization of all O&M activities.
Source: IRENA, International Renewable Energy Agency, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2019
45
Strong decline in LCOE/Levelized Costs Of Energy Production for PV/solar is mainly driven by PV module prices
Price development for PV modules (USD real 2,000/Wp)
This cost decrease applies to park maintenance,
lease payments and interest rates as well.
Source: BNEF, Warburg Research on SDAX, Renewables, Encavis, 07.09.2020
46
Electricity price fluctuations due to the Merit Order Effect
In the very conservative assumption of an energy only market, thus a market in which only the produced power is compensated, without any compensation for the mere readiness for power production (capacity market), the power price would be determined by the "merit order" - the sequence in which power stations contribute power to the market, with the cheapest offer made by the power station with the smallest operating costs setting the starting point - and not by the LCOE.
While it is true that renewables lower the entrance price due to their low operating costs and push more expensive conventional producers down the merit order
(see chart to the left), it is also true that the price for the energy is set by the plant with the highest operating cost that is still necessary to be activated in order to meet the demand.
Source: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/setting-power-price-merit-order-effect
47
Positive development of PPA power prices are seen by all leading energy price forecasters
Liquid Market Horizon | Illiquid Market Horizon |
Long-term PPAs
Standard products
Power Price | LCOE for Solar PV as of June 2020… | ||
Baseload | |||
...are expected to decrease further | |||
2021 | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 |
Forecast 1 | Forecast 2 | Forecast 3 |
- All major forecasters of energy prices do see positive development of energy prices in the future.
-
Main drivers for energy prices
are: CO2 certificate prices, capacity additions of renewables acompanied with cut down of capacities of conventional power plants. - Even the most conservative forecaster (#3) sees energy market prices which are fairly above current (and, obviously, future) LCOEs enabeling additional investments into renewables.
48
ENCAVIS manages uncertainties in power demand, power supply and corresponding pricing risks
Sophisticated Energy risk management as key value leaver short to mid term:
- Traded products in liquid markets (1-5 years ahead)
- PPAs for non-liquid markets (5 years ++)
- Matching inherent energy risks by portfolio optimization
European goal for CO2 free power production will either lead to . . .
- a CO2 price regime as part of power prices in order to stimulate investments in Renewable Energy
- the introduction of capacity markets for Renewable Energy (REE) in order to allow for new build
- a self-regulatedenergy only market where power prices incentivize enough new build capacities in REE
Long-term price curves*) observation as well as introduction of proprietary energy pricing model
- Captured prices for solar and wind (accounting for the expected cannibalization effect)
- Introduction of storage as appropriate
*) from various reknowed 3rd party providers
50
Management team with great industry expertise and strong passion for renewables
Dr Dierk Paskert
Chief Executive Officer
CEO since Sep 2017
Reappointed until Aug 2025
CEO Rohstoffallianz GmbH
Member of the Management Board of E.ON-Energie AG SVP Corporate Development of E.ON AG
Member of the Management Board of Schenker AG
Dr Christoph Husmann
Chief Financial Officer
CFO since Oct 2014
Reappointed until Sep 2025
Member (CFO) and later CEO of the Management Board of HOCHTIEF Projekt Entwicklung GmbH
Head of Corporate Controlling and M&A of STINNES AG and HOCHTIEF AG Controlling of VEBA AG
51
Supervisory Board
Dr Manfred Krüper (Chairman)
Member of the Board of Directors at E.ON AG (until Nov 2006)
Supervisory Board (a.o.): Power Plus Communication AG,
EQT Partners Beteiligungsberatung GmbH; EEW Energy from Waste GmbH
Peter Heidecker (dependent)
Chairman of the Supervisory Board at
CHORUS Clean Energy AG (until Oct 2016)
Founder of the CHORUS GmbH in 1998
Supervisory Board (a.o.):
Auszeit Hotel & Resort AG
Christine Scheel
Member of the Supervisory Board at
CHORUS Clean Energy AG (until Oct 2016)
Former Member of the German Parliament
Supervisory Board (a.o.):
NATURSTROM AG
Alexander Stuhlmann (Dep. Ch.)
CEO at HSH Nordbank (until Dec 2006) and thereafter CEO at WestLB AG (until April 2008)
Supervisory Board (a.o.): Euro-AviationVersicherungs-AG, Ernst Russ AG, GEV Gesell- schaft für Entwicklung und Vermarktung AG, M.M. Warburg & CO Hypothekenbank AG
Dr Henning Kreke (dependent)
Previously CEO at Douglas Holding AG for 15 years
Supervisory Board (a.o.): Deutsche EuroShop AG; Douglas GmbH, Thalia Bücher GmbH
Dr Marcus Schenck
Partner of Perella Weinberg Partners
Independent Advisory Council(a.o.): EQT Infrastructure
Albert Büll (dependent)
Entrepreneur and co-owner of the B&L Group
Advisory Council (a.o.):
BRUSS Sealing Systems GmbH, noventic GmbH
Dr Cornelius Liedtke (dependent)
Entrepreneur and co-owner of the B&L Group
Supervisory Board (a.o.): BRUSS Sealing Systems GmbH, SUMTEQ GmbH
Prof Fritz Vahrenholt
Chairman of the Supervisory Board
(until January 2014) at RWE Innogy GmbH
(previously CEO)
Supervisory Board (a.o.):
Aurubis AG
53
Dividend of EUR 0.26 per share for FY 2019 fully in line with dividend target 2021
Significant majority (61.5 %) of shareholders preferred new ENCAVIS shares to cash dividend for FY 2019
Dividend policy reflects increasing cashflows from PV/Wind parks over time
50% increase of nominal dividend until 2021 (compared to 2016) based on the existing PV/Wind park portfolio as of March 31, 2017
0.08 | ||
Further acquisitions of PV/Wind | 0.05 | |
parks will positively contribute | ||
to the dividend potential |
Nominal dividend to increase by 50% (base-year 2016) to 30 EUR cent in 2021
0.30 |
0.26 |
0.24 |
0.22 |
0.20 |
0.18 |
0.15 |
0.10 |
Dividend (EUR cent/share)
2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
54
Entrepreneurial shareholder structure - strong and long-term anchor investors
Market Cap: | # shares: 138,437,234 |
> 2.4 billion EUR | (post scrip dividend of 2019) |
Major investors within the free float: | 26.7% | Pool of | |
5.8% | BlackRock Fund Managers Limited | AMCO Service GmbH (Büll Family) with | |
Dr Liedtke Vermögensverwaltung GmbH | |||
4.0% | Versicherungskammer Bayern | (Liedtke Family) | |
3.5% | Lobelia Beteiligungsgesellschaft/ | Free float | |
Kreke Immobilien KG | |||
73.3% | |||
3.1% | DWS Investment GmbH, Frankfurt/Main | ||
2.3% | PELABA Vermögensverwaltungs GmbH & Co. KG | ||
0.4% | Management of Encavis AG |
55
ENCAVIS share - Twelve active coverages with seven "buy" recommendations out of eleven
Coverage institution | Updated Ratings | Date | Target Price (EUR) |
Reduce | Nov 06, 2020 | 13.00 | |
Buy | Oct 14, 2020 | 20.80 | |
Buy | Sep 28, 2020 | 21.00 | |
Buy | Sep 07, 2020 | 17.20 | |
Hold | Sep 02, 2020 | 15.00 | |
Buy | Aug 28, 2020 | 18.50 | |
Buy | Aug 28, 2020 | 16.90 | |
Buy | Aug 26, 2020 | 18.30 | |
Neutral | Aug 26, 2020 | 15.00 | |
Hold | Aug 26, 2020 | 13.50 | |
(Buy) | Aug 26, 2020 | 14.60 | |
Consensus | Further Ratings | Date | 16.71 |
Jan 24, 2020 | |||
! | Further coverages of the ENCAVIS share are initiated . . . |
56
ENCAVIS share with strong upward trend got a dip from capital market panic also
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12.11.19 | 12.12.19 | 12.01.20 | 12.02.20 | 12.03.20 | 12.04.20 | 12.05.20 | 12.06.20 | 12.07.20 | 12.08.20 | 12.09.20 | 12.10.20 | 12.11.20 |
57
ENCAVIS - One of the largest independent and listed European Renewable IPPs
Benchmarking by market capitalization as of Nov 12, 2020 (EUR million)
4,145 | |||||
European listed renewable companies | |||||
Listed yield companies | |||||
2,644 | 2,576 | 2,472 | |||
1,724 | |||||
1,509 | 1,401 | ||||
1,273 | |||||
701 | 698 | ||||
504 | |||||
253 |
58
Date 2020 | Event (I) |
Nov 16 | Interim statement Q3/9M 2020 |
Nov 16-18 | German Virtual Equity Capital Market |
Forum, Deutsche Börse, FFM (GER) | |
Nov 23 | REUTERS Energy Transition Summit, |
London (UK) | |
Nov 23/24 | Commerzbank Virtual Investors Days, |
Zurich/Geneva (CH) | |
Nov 24 | DZ Bank Virtual Equity Conference 2020, |
Frankfurt/Main (GER) | |
Nov 25/26 | 16th Virtual Structured FINANCE, |
Stuttgart (GER) | |
Nov 30 | Berenberg Virtual European Conf. 2020, |
Pennyhill Park, Surrey / London (UK) | |
Date 2020 | Event (II) |
Dec 8 | REUTERS The Future of Renewables, |
London (UK) | |
Dec 11 | Interest payment PNL 2015 |
Date 2021 | |
Jan 11-13 | ODDO BHF Forum/100% virtual, Lyon (FR) |
Jan 20 | Virtual UniCredit/Kepler Cheuvreux |
German Corporate Conference 2021, | |
Frankfurt/Main (GER) | |
Feb 3 | Virtual Solar Finance & Investment |
Summit Europe, London (UK) | |
Mar 13 | Interest payment Hybrid Convertible |
59
Date 2021 | Event (III) |
Mar 22 | Berenberg Virtual Energy Transition |
Conference, London (UK) | |
Mar 23 | Consolidated Financial Statements 2020 |
Mar 24 | Analysts' Conference Call regarding the |
Consolidated Financial Statements 2020 | |
Mar 26 | Jefferies Equity-Linked Virtual Conference |
2021, London (UK) | |
Apr 12-14 | RBI/Raiffeisen CENTROBANK Institutional |
Investors Conference Zürs (AT) | |
May 14 | Interim statement Q1/3M 2021 |
May 27 | Annual General Shareholders Meeting |
Hamburg (GER) | |
Date 2021 | Event (IV) |
Aug 13 | Interim report Q2/6M 2021 |
Sep 1 | Commerzbank Sector Conference, |
Frankfurt/Main (GER) | |
Sep 1-2 | Stifel Cross Sector Insight Conference |
London (UK) | |
Sep 12 | Interest payment PNL 2018 "Green SSD" |
Sep 13 | Interest payment Hybrid Convertible |
Nov 15 | Interim statement Q3/9M 2021 |
Dec 11 | Interest payment PNL 2015 |
IR/ PR Contact
Jörg Peters
Head of Investor Relations & Public Relations
- +49 (0)40 / 37 85 62 242 M +49 (0)160 / 429 65 40 Ejoerg.peters@encavis.com
Encavis AG
Große Elbstraße 59
D- 22767 Hamburg
Germany
www.encavis.com
The information provided in this document has been derived from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information and we do not assume any responsibility for it. Encavis AG assumes no liability for any errors or omissions or for any resulting financial losses. Investments in capital markets, in particular in stock markets and futures markets, are fundamentally associated with risks and a complete loss of the invested capital cannot be ruled out. Recommendations provided herein do not represent an offer to buy or sell and are not intended to replace comprehensive and thorough advice before making a decision to buy or sell. Copies of the content of this presentation, in particular prints and copies or publications in electronic media, will only be authorized by written consent from Encavis AG.
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Encavis AG published this content on 16 November 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 16 November 2020 08:20:04 UTC