Endeavour Silver : In Gold We Trust 2022 Report by Incrementum

May 24, 2022

Ronald-Peter Stöferle & Mark J. Valek

We would like to express our gratitude to our Premium Partners for

supporting the In Gold We Trust report 2022

Details about our Premium Partners can be found on page 390 ff.

Contents

Introduction: of Wolves and Bears	4
Status Quo of Gold as a Currency	16
Status Quo of Gold Relative to Stocks, Bonds and Commodities	24
Status Quo of Debt Dynamics	43
Status Quo of the Inflation Trend	64
Status Quo of Gold Demand	85
Conclusion: Status Quo	95
Stagflation 2.0	104
Stagflation and a New Gold Standard - Exclusive Interview with Alasdair Macleod	130
A New International Order Emerges	145
Energy, War & Inflation - Exclusive Interview with Luke Gromen	168
China - At the Crossroads	184
When Rome Lost Its Reserve Currency	202
Why Does Fiat Money Seemingly Work?	218
Gold Storage: Fact Checking Germany, Canada, and the UK	235
The Synchronous Equity and Gold Price Model	251
How to Understand Gold's Supply and Demand Fundamentals	268
Silver's Inflation Conundrum	281
Bitcoin: Bull Market in Adoption, Bear Market in Price	294
Mining Shares - Fundamental and Technical Status Quo	305
The Challenges of the Gold Mining Industry	318
Royalty & Streaming Companies: An Excellent Way of Investing in Gold	331
The New Low-Emissions Economy: Gold as a Savior	343
Technical Analysis	356
Quo Vadis, Aurum?	366
About Us	386

Disclaimer

This publication is for information purposes only, and represents neither investment advice, nor an investment analysis or an invitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Specifically, the document does not serve as a substitute for individual investment or other advice. The statements contained in this publication are based on the knowledge as of the time of preparation and are subject to change at any time without further notice.

The authors have exercised the greatest possible care in the selection of the information sources employed, however, they do not accept any responsibility (and neither does Incrementum AG) for the correctness, completeness or timeliness of the information, respectively the information sources, made available, as well as any liabilities or damages, irrespective of their nature, that may result there from (including consequential or indirect damages, loss of prospective profits or the accuracy of prepared forecasts).

Copyright: 2022 Incrementum AG. All rights reserved.

Introduction: of Wolves and Bears

"To ignore the warning signs and continue with the strategies of the past is to ignore the third, crucial cry of wolf."

"The Boy Who Cried Wolf: Inflationary Decade Ahead?," Incrementum Inflation Special,

November 2020

Key Takeaways

• In our special analysis from the fall of 2020, "The Boy Who Cried Wolf", we warned urgently of the underestimated danger of high inflation. The wolf is now here to stay. The war in Ukraine is exacerbating the inflation dynamic.
• The intractability of supply chain issues, the cost of sanctions, tighter monetary policy, and deglobalization are now bringing the recession bear to the table alongside the wolf.
• The majority of investors have been caught on the wrong foot by entering the inflationary environment. Balanced portfolios have been suffering heavy losses so far this year.
• In addition to de-globalization and decarbonization, there are a number of other structural reasons that argue for a longer-term stagflationary environment in which multiple waves of inflation are likely to occur.
• The freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves and the new geopolitical realities make gold increasingly attractive as a neutral international reserve asset.

Introduction: of Wolves and Bears	5

Whether the bear beats the wolf, or the wolf beats the bear, the rabbit always loses.

Robert Jordan

The true investment challenge is to perform well in difficult times.

Seth Klarman

Of Wolves and Bears

In the fall of 2020, in the midst of the second Covid-19 wave, we were prompted to publish a special edition of the In Gold We Trust report. In

our publication entitled"The Boy Who Cried Wolf: Inflationary Decade Ahead?", we used Aesop's parable to issue an urgent warning about the danger of inflation creeping up on us. The majority of market participants were no longer familiar with this predator, which was thought to be extinct, since the last period of high inflation was many decades ago.

Now the wolf is here - and it dominates the headlines. But many investors are still unaware of the threats it poses to their portfolios. In many cases, people hide behind the naïve illusion that the wolf will disappear again after a short time

• just like that, and without having feasted on any prey.

Now the next danger is already lurking: sneaking up behind the wolf is

a bear. This bear symbolizes a striking economic downturn, pushing asset prices down with its paw. Once again, the majority of economists and investors will be caught on the wrong foot.

Monthly Inflation and GDP Polls for 2022, USA and Euro Area, 01/2021-04/2022

7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
			5.0%
			4.5%
			4.0%
			3.5%
			3.0%
			2.5%

01/202104/202107/202110/202101/202204/2022

USA CPIEuro Area HICPUSA GDPEuro Area GDP

Source: Reuters Eikon, Incrementum AG

For those properly prepared, the bear market is not only a calamity but an opportunity.

John Templeton

After the devastation of the Covid-19 pandemic, everyone hoped for

years of recovery. Last year's record-high growth figures fueled this fire of hope. But these figures were mainly due to a return to a certain economic normality dependent on the base effect.

But what was the real tinder that caused this growth fire to burn? In the wake of the global lockdowns and the equity market crash, the US economy contracted by an annualized 9.1% in Q2/2020, while global GDP slumped by 3.1%. An unprecedented flurry of monetary and fiscal policies were implemented in an attempt to limit the economic damage caused by the lockdowns and prevent the looming debt-deflation.

The stock markets reacted with delight, deflation was averted, and just a few months later the financial markets were once again in high

LinkedIn | twitter | #IGWTreport