EURSEK poll data
EURNOK poll data
OSLO/STOCKHOLM, Jan 8 (Reuters) - The currencies of Norway
and Sweden are set to extend their recent gains against the euro
and dollar in 2021 as the Nordic region's economic prospects
continue to recover, a Reuters poll of analysts showed.
Both the Swedish and Norwegian crowns plunged in March as
the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic swept the region, but
have since seen a gradual normalisation of exchange rates.
In Norway, which is expected to see the biggest currency
bounce, the central bank has said it may raise interest rates in
early 2022, potentially making it the first developed economy to
increase the cost of borrowing after the pandemic.
A sharp rebound in the price of crude oil, Norway's top
export, will also push up the currency, analysts said.
"The Norwegian crown hasn't recovered as much as the Swedish
crown has, so it has more to gain," Nordea Markets Chief Analyst
Niels Christensen said.
"The economic situation is better for the Norwegian crown as
Norway has been able to really control the spread of coronavirus
and it has more ammunition due to the oil fund, so they are in a
stronger position," he said.
Norway's crown tumbled to all-time lows in mid-March but
began to recover when the central bank said it could intervene
in the market for the first time in two decades and as oil
Meanwhile, the Swedish crown has fully recovered from
11-year lows against the euro and 18-year lows against the
dollar in March.
Home to brands such as truck maker Volvo and
mobile networks producer Ericsson, export-oriented
Sweden is also a major attraction for investors seeking to
benefit from a rebound in economic growth.
"It looks encouraging for the Swedish crown. The big mover
for it is positive sentiment on global equity markets which most
people expect to continue to do well," Nordea's Christensen
Forecasts for both the Swedish and the Norwegian crown
currencies have been lifted since last month, the poll showed.
By this time next year, Sweden's crown is predicted to
strengthen to what would be close to a four-year high of 9.90 to
the euro from 10.06 now, the median forecast showed. A similar
poll in December had forecast a rate of 9.96.
Meanwhile, the Norwegian crown is seen trading at 10.10 to
the euro one year from now, up from 10.34 now and 23% above the
all-time low of 13.17 set on March 19. The early December poll
had predicted 10.20.
(For other stories from the January Reuters foreign exchange
(Polling by Sujith Pai and Nagamani Lingappa; Editing by Alison