"My style is pretty simple, and direct. I aim very high, then keep pushing, pushing, pushing to get what I want." That's how Donald Trump described himself in The Art of the Deal. Back in the White House, the Republican president is multiplying radical decisions, perceived as acts of a trade war. The result: an inward-looking approach, questioning globalization and bringing international trade to a standstill. A climate that weighs heavily on freight and logistics players, which seek stability.
In a difficult slump
The general atmosphere on the markets is tainted with mistrust. The strategic retreat of certain countries is calling into question global trade circuits. In this uncertain environment, freight specialists are on the front line. Broker Berenberg recently published an analysis of Hapag-Lloyd, pointing out that "volatile freight rates and global geopolitical tensions make profit forecasting extremely difficult". This comment applies to the sector as a whole.
UBS makes a similar observation. In a study on European logistics, the bank anticipates weak demand for airfreight and express freight over the coming quarters, year-on-year declining volumes and increased pressure on rates. In their view, the surcharges imposed by DHL Express may not be fully passed on during the 2025 peak season. This climate is weighing on industry heavyweights, such as UPS, FedEx, AP Moller Maersk and Kuehne + Nagel.
Exceptions to be expected?
Amongst big names in the sector, only DHL is in the black since the start of the year, although this performance could be eroded by generalized pressure. The equation is simple: higher tariffs slow down international trade, and a drop in world trade mechanically weakens carriers.
However, a few exceptions stand out. Certain groups with a strong local presence and concentration in a single territory could come out on top. This is the case for Stef, a specialist in the transport of fresh and frozen products. The company generates 65% of its sales in France, with the remainder in Europe, a positioning that enables it to remain largely sheltered from global turbulence.
Another player to watch is InPost. Since its takeover of Mondial Relay in 2021, this Polish specialist in automatic delivery systems has begun a solid turnaround. While a large proportion of its revenues come from Europe, the company will have to keep a close eye on how its relations with giants such as Amazon evolve.
In a climate of trade war, resilience requires specialization and territorial anchoring. It remains to be seen whether these strategies will be enough to weather the storm.
