2021 Stress Test Results
6/28/21
2021 Stress Test Results
Company-run stress test demonstrates ability to navigate the Fed CCAR Severely Adverse Scenario while maintaining capital well above regulatory minimums
CCAR Severely Adverse Scenario
- Severe global recession with heightened stress in commercial real estate and corporate debt markets
- Real GDP down 4%
-
Unemployment increased to 10.8% o House prices down 24%
o CRE prices down 40%
o Equity prices down 55%
Capital | ||||||||
FHN | Fed-run CCAR Peers | |||||||
CET1↓ 114bps | CET1 ↓ ~240bps3 | |||||||
16.8% | ||||||||
15.3% | 14.3% | |||||||
12.6% | 11.8% | 12.4% | ||||||
10.7% | ||||||||
9.6% | ||||||||
13.4% | 11.4% | 8.0% | ||||||
9.7% | 6.0% | |||||||
8.5% | ||||||||
4.5% | ||||||||
4Q20 | 9Q | 4Q20 | 9Q | Regulatory | ||||
Actual | Minimum | Actual | Minimum | Required | ||||
Minimum | ||||||||
CET1 | Tier 1 | Total Capital | ||||||
Results and Key Assumptions
- Minimum CET1 of 8.5% exceeded regulatory minimum by 400 bps
- CET1 decline of 114bps compared to Fed-runCCAR peer1 median of 240 bps
- 3.1% loss rate compared to Fed-run CCAR peer1 median of 5.9%
- $0.15/share quarterly common dividend
- Utilized CECL2 methodology for allowance & losses; drove provision & capital into 1Q21
Drivers of Change in CET1
0.6% | 0.6% | |||||||||||
0.5% | (0.1%) | (0.1%) | ||||||||||
(0.2%) | ||||||||||||
(2.5%) | ||||||||||||
9.7%
8.5%
4Q20 | Provision | PPNR | Dividends | Taxes | CECL | Assets | Other | 1Q21 |
Phase-in |
2 | |
Based on Fed Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) Severely Adverse scenario released February 12, 2021 using a flat (static) balance sheet over 9 quarter planning horizon from 1Q21 to 1Q23 1References to peer stress testing data represent the median 2021 CCAR results of 23 |
participating firms. 2Company run results utilized Current Expected Credit Loss methodology vs. Fed methodology that sets allowance equal to the next four quarters of forecasted losses. 3Median change in peer results may not equal difference from median starting point to median minimum. PPNR = Pre-Provision Net Revenue Source: Federal Reserve
2021 Stress Test Results
Countercyclical businesses and favorable portfolio mix help First Horizon outperform peers in latest stress test
Key Stress Test Ratios | Fixed Income Contribution | |||||||
5.9% | Fed-run CCAR Peers1 | FHN | $350 | 25% | ||||
$300 | ||||||||
20% | ||||||||
$250 | ||||||||
3.1% | 3.3% | $200 | 15% | |||||
$150 | 10% | |||||||
1.6% | ||||||||
$100 | ||||||||
0.4% | $50 | 5% | ||||||
$0 | 0% |
-0.6%
Loan Loss | PPNR | Pre-tax Net Income |
Rate | % Assets | % Assets |
Total PPNR | Fixed Income PPNR | Fixed Income PPNR % | |
Overall Portfolio Loss Rates Lower than CCAR Median
First-lien Mortgages | 1.6% | |||||||||||||
1.8% | ||||||||||||||
Junior liens and HELOCs | 1.8% | 4.1% | ||||||||||||
Commercial and Industrial | 2.8% | 7.5% | ||||||||||||
Commercial Real Estate | 6.1% | 10.2% | ||||||||||||
Credit Cards | 9.6% | 15.7% | ||||||||||||
Other Consumer | 5.7% | 8.4% | ||||||||||||
Other Loans | 0.5% | 4.0% | ||||||||||||
Total Loan Losses | 3.1% | 5.9% | ||||||||||||
0% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 16% | 18% | |||||
Fed-run CCAR Peers 1 | FHN | |||||||||||||
•
•
9-quarter cumulative losses of $1.7B; additional pre-tax loss capacity of ~$3.4B to 4.5% CET1 capital regulatory requirement
FHN's portfolio mix contributed to lower losses
- Loans to mortgage companies had relatively low loss rates and represented ~9% of average loans
- Credit card portfolio <0.5% of average loans
3 | |
Based on Fed Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) Severely Adverse scenario released February 12, 2021 using a flat (static) balance sheet over 9 quarter planning horizon from 1Q21 to 1Q23 1References to peer stress testing data represent the median 2021 CCAR results | |
of 23 participating firms. $ in millions |
Attachments
- Original document
- Permalink
Disclaimer
First Horizon National Corporation published this content on 28 June 2021 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 28 June 2021 19:58:05 UTC.