Fitch Ratings expects to assign ratings and Rating Outlooks to the asset-backed notes issued by
Fitch used 2006-2009 recessionary vintage performance along with the more recent 2015-2017 vintage performance data as base periods to derive and forecast the base case cumulative net loss (CNL) proxy. The sensitivity of the ratings to scenarios more severe than currently expected is provided in the Rating Sensitivities section below.
RATING ACTIONSENTITY/DEBT RATING
A-1
LTAAA (EXP)sf Expected Rating
A-2
LTAAA (EXP)sf Expected Rating
A-3
LTAAA (EXP)sf Expected Rating
B
LT AA+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
C
LT A+(EXP)sf Expected Rating
VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Collateral Performance - Strong Credit Quality: The 2021-A pool is largely consistent with that of series 2020-A (NR by Fitch) and similar to 2019-A. The weighted average (WA)
Forward-Looking Approach to Derive Base Case Loss Proxy: Fitch considered economic conditions and future expectations by assessing key macroeconomic and wholesale market conditions to derive the series loss proxy. Losses on FCCC's portfolio and securitizations were stable in 2015-2019, well below peak 2009 levels, and improved in 2020 - 1H21, despite the negative impacts from the pandemic. Fitch incorporated the performance from 2006-2009 and 2015-2017 vintages, along with 2009-2020 ABS performance, in deriving the 1.00% base case CNL proxy for 2021-A (down from 1.10% in 2019-A).
Payment Structure - Sufficient Credit Enhancement (CE): Initial hard CE totals 5.25%, 2.25% and 0.25% for class A, B and C notes, respectively, lower versus 2020-A by 75bps for each class, although consistent with that of the other three prior recent transactions. Initial hard CE is sufficient to withstand Fitch's base case CNL proxy of 1.00% for all notes at each class respective loss coverage multiples. Excess spread totals approximately 3.55%, down relative to 2020-A and other recent transactions.
Seller/Servicer Operational Review - Consistent Origination/Underwriting/Servicing: FCCC demonstrates adequate abilities as originator, underwriter and servicer, as evidenced by historical delinquency and loss performance of its managed portfolio and securitizations.
Thus, Fitch deems FCCC capable to service this series. Fitch's current Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) for
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
Unanticipated increases in the frequency of defaults could produce CNL levels higher than the base case and would likely result in declines of CE and remaining net loss coverage levels available to the notes. Additionally, unanticipated declines in recoveries could also result in lower net loss coverage, which may make certain note ratings susceptible to potential negative rating actions, depending on the extent of the decline in coverage.
Hence, Fitch conducts sensitivity analyses by stressing both a transaction's initial base case CNL and recovery rate assumptions and examining the rating implications on all classes of issued notes. The CNL sensitivity stresses the CNL proxy to the level necessary to reduce each rating by one full category, to non-investment grade (BBsf) and to 'CCCsf', based on the break-even loss coverage provided by the CE structure.
Additionally, Fitch conducts 1.5x and 2.0x increases to the CNL proxy, representing both moderate and severe stresses, respectively. Fitch also evaluates the impact of stressed recovery rates on the transaction structure and rating impact with a 50% haircut. These analyses are intended to provide an indication of the rating sensitivity of notes to unexpected deterioration of a trust's performance.
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
Stable to improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies and defaults would lead to increasing CE levels and consideration for potential upgrades. If CNL is 20% less than the projected proxy, the expected ratings for the subordinate notes would not be upgraded until the transaction amortizes, given they are subordinated to the class A notes and rely heavily on excess spread for credit enhancement. Up stresses were not considered for the class A notes given they are rated 'AAAsf(EXP)'.
Best/Worst Case Rating Scenario
International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Fitch was provided with Form ABS Due Diligence-15E (Form 15E) as prepared by
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
ESG Considerations
Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg
Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com
PARTICIPATION STATUS
The rated entity (and/or its agents) or, in the case of structured finance, one or more of the transaction parties participated in the rating process except that the following issuer(s), if any, did not participate in the rating process, or provide additional information, beyond the issuer's available public disclosure.
APPLICABLE CRITERIA
Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria (pub.
Exposure Draft: Structured Finance and Covered Bonds Counterparty Rating Criteria (pub.
APPLICABLE MODELS
Numbers in parentheses accompanying applicable model(s) contain hyperlinks to criteria providing description of model(s).
ABS Loss Forecaster Model, v1.1.1 (1)
Auto Timeshare Model, v1.1.0 (1)
ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES
Dodd-Frank Rating Information Disclosure Form
ABS Due Diligence Form 15E 1
Solicitation Status
Endorsement Policy
ENDORSEMENT STATUS
Ford Auto Securitization Trust 2021-A EU,UK Endorsed
(C) 2021 Electronic News Publishing, source