Online U.S. retail sales will hit $1.07 trillion this year despite inflation, higher gas prices and the ongoing concern of COVID-19 variants.

That's a prediction from FTI Consulting's Retail & Consumer Products division.

The figure reflects an increase of 11.7% compared to 2021, and is in line with a pre-pandemic growth expectation, according to the firm's 2022 U.S. Online Retail Forecast report.

The COVID-19 pandemic caused approximately $400 billion to move to the e-commerce channel in 2020 and 2021, according to a press release on the findings.

"There is persuasive evidence that COVID-19's impact on e-commerce shopping will be enduring," J.D. Wichser, leader of the Retail & Consumer Products practice, said in the release.

"However, the rocket-like growth of online retail during COVID-19 certainly will moderate. Online sales in the past two years were driven by necessity — shopping from home due to stay-at-home living and work conditions — as well as more discretionary income due to government stimulus, a speedy jobs recovery and increased savings. This will modulate over time, exacerbated by recent inflationary pressure, which is expected to slow total retail spending over the second half of 2022 and is quickly becoming the primary source of stress for consumers, who don't know how long it will persist."

The firm predicts U.S. online retail sales will surpass $2 trillion by 2030, while total online market share will approach 31% by the end of the decade, compared to 21% at the end of 2021, according to the forecast.

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