Projected Income Statement: Geely Automobile Holdings Limited

Forecast Balance Sheet: Geely Automobile Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Net Debt 1 -15,025 -23,505 -22,521 -27,646 -34,355 -47,703 -68,454 -91,327
Change - -56.44% 4.19% -22.76% -24.27% -38.85% -43.5% -33.41%
Announcement Date 3/23/21 3/23/22 3/21/23 3/20/24 3/20/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Geely Automobile Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
CAPEX 1 2,807 6,100 3,516 5,711 3,032 13,917 13,226 13,930
Change - 117.35% -42.36% 62.44% -46.9% 358.95% -4.97% 5.32%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 -1,210 9,248 5,681 7,020 23,475 42,105 31,549 33,707
Change - 864.31% -38.57% 23.56% 234.41% 79.36% -25.07% 6.84%
Announcement Date 3/23/21 3/23/22 3/21/23 3/20/24 3/20/25 - - -
1CNY in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Geely Automobile Holdings Limited

Fiscal Period: December 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 11.36% 10.04% 7% 6.57% 7.91% 7.66% 7.67% 8.03%
EBIT Margin (%) 5.4% 3.26% 1.38% 1.99% 4% 4.88% 5.05% 5.56%
EBT Margin (%) 6.99% 4.59% 3.16% 2.76% 7.66% 5.67% 5.55% 6.1%
Net margin (%) 6.01% 4.77% 3.56% 2.96% 6.92% 4.85% 4.73% 5.13%
FCF margin (%) -1.31% 9.1% 3.84% 3.92% 9.77% 12.33% 7.84% 7.39%
FCF / Net Income (%) -21.87% 190.78% 108% 132.24% 141.14% 254.24% 165.95% 144.05%

Profitability

        
ROA 5.06% 3.95% 2.51% 3.3% 7.88% 6.08% 6.21% 6.66%
ROE 9.37% 7.33% 7.32% 6.82% 19.89% 16.76% 17.03% 17.98%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) - - - - - - - -
Debt / Free cash flow - - - - - - - -

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 3.05% 6% 2.38% 3.19% 1.26% 4.08% 3.29% 3.05%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 26.82% 59.8% 33.94% 48.54% 15.96% 53.19% 42.84% 38.02%
CAPEX / FCF (%) -231.95% 65.96% 61.89% 81.36% 12.92% 33.05% 41.92% 41.33%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 3.237 1.552 1.579 2.206 2.624 3.256 2.832 3.771
Change - -52.04% 1.69% 39.72% 18.95% 24.09% -13.01% 33.17%
Dividend per Share 1 0.1678 0.171 0.1841 0.2024 0.3077 0.4955 0.5818 0.7119
Change - 1.93% 7.64% 9.98% 52% 61.04% 17.42% 22.34%
Book Value Per Share 1 6.482 6.848 7.47 8 8.62 9.943 11.76 13.66
Change - 5.65% 9.09% 7.09% 7.74% 15.35% 18.29% 16.13%
EPS 1 0.56 0.48 0.5049 0.51 1.63 1.609 1.867 2.254
Change - -14.29% 5.19% 1.01% 219.61% -1.26% 16.01% 20.74%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 9,816,627 10,018,442 10,056,974 10,063,382 10,075,002 10,820,415 10,820,415 10,820,415
Announcement Date 3/23/21 3/23/22 3/21/23 3/20/24 3/20/25 - - -
1CNY
Estimates
2025 *2026 *
P/E ratio 9.32x 8.03x
PBR 1.51x 1.28x
EV / Sales 0.34x 0.23x
Yield 3.3% 3.88%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
AA
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
31
Last Close Price
15.00CNY
Average target price
23.23CNY
Spread / Average Target
+54.88%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise

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