Financials GFL Environmental Inc.

Equities

GFL

CA36168Q1046

Environmental Services & Equipment

Market Closed - Toronto S.E. Other stock markets 04:00:00 2025-07-15 pm EDT			5-day change	1st Jan Change
65.11 ^CAD	-1.14%		-0.70%	+1.61%

Jul. 09	GFL Environmental Inc., Q1 2025 Earnings Call, May 01, 2025
Jul. 02	GFL Environmental Price Target Lowered to $78 at ATB Capital	MT

Projected Income Statement: GFL Environmental Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net sales ¹	4,196	5,526	6,761	7,516	7,862	6,557	7,043	7,750
Change	-	31.68%	22.37%	11.15%	4.61%	-16.6%	7.42%	10.04%
EBITDA ¹	1,077	1,464	1,721	2,004	2,250	1,949	2,160	2,427
Change	-	35.94%	17.57%	16.44%	12.32%	-13.38%	10.78%	12.38%
EBIT ¹	-318.3	-64.3	67.2	295.5	456.5	550.1	809	1,021
Change	-	79.8%	204.51%	339.73%	54.48%	20.5%	47.07%	26.19%
Interest Paid ¹	-597.6	-434.1	-492.8	-627.2	-674.9	-522.9	-452.6	-555.2
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-1,356	-712.8	-359.3	192.1	-944.8	-261	231.4	344.1
Change	-	47.43%	49.59%	153.47%	-591.83%	72.38%	188.66%	48.69%
Net income ¹	-994.9	-606.8	-311.8	45.4	-722.7	3,517	150.1	-92
Change	-	39.01%	48.62%	114.56%	-1,691.85%	586.65%	-95.73%	-161.28%
Announcement Date	2/22/21	2/9/22	2/21/23	2/20/24	2/24/25	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million

Estimates

Fiscal Period: December	2020 Q2	2020 Q3	2020 Q4	2021 Q1	2021 Q2	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4	2026 Q1	2026 Q2	2026 Q3	2026 Q4	2027 Q1
Net sales ¹	993.3	1,036	1,236	1,187	1,314	1,485	1,540	1,401	1,708	1,831	1,821	1,799	1,944	1,890	1,883	1,801	2,060	2,015	1,986	1,560	1,675	1,664	1,660	1,655	1,809	1,796	1,800	1,929
Change	-	4.3%	19.27%	-3.97%	10.76%	13%	3.66%	-8.97%	21.84%	7.24%	-0.55%	-1.21%	8.03%	-2.76%	-0.38%	-4.32%	14.36%	-2.2%	-1.43%	-21.44%	7.37%	-0.65%	-0.28%	-0.27%	9.31%	-0.73%	0.19%	7.18%
EBITDA ¹	261.5	281.2	311.2	306.6	353	415.8	388.3	354.4	453.3	473.3	439.8	440.5	540.7	530.3	492.2	455.7	591.1	625.9	577.8	426.1	505.1	522.1	500.9	470.6	558.5	578.1	567	549.6
Change	-	7.53%	10.67%	-1.48%	15.13%	17.79%	-6.61%	-8.73%	27.91%	4.41%	-7.08%	0.16%	22.75%	-1.92%	-7.18%	-7.42%	29.71%	5.89%	-7.68%	-26.25%	18.55%	3.36%	-4.06%	-6.05%	18.68%	3.52%	-1.92%	-3.07%
EBIT ¹	7.9	22.1	-272.2	-223.4	-9.5	40.5	-62	-26.9	47.1	51.8	-4.8	30	118.8	128.5	18.2	21.8	144.9	174	115.8	1.3	162.2	178.9	146	127.3	184.4	214.1	171.2	168.5
Change	-	179.75%	-1,331.67%	17.93%	95.75%	526.32%	-253.09%	56.61%	275.09%	9.98%	-109.27%	725%	296%	8.16%	-85.84%	19.78%	564.68%	20.08%	-33.45%	-98.88%	12,379.32%	10.27%	-18.4%	-12.82%	44.88%	16.09%	-20.02%	-1.57%
Charge d'intérêts ¹	-95.4	-94.9	-137.9	-92.1	-139.8	-97	-105.2	-99.7	-104.8	-136.2	-148.6	-164.7	-164.8	-137.2	-160.5	-153	-186.9	-169.8	-165.2	-210.4	-117.5	-114.7	-116	-138.2	-129.1	-122.7	-124.2	-190.4
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-153.8	-159.6	-676.7	-315.5	40.6	-347	-90.9	115.2	34.7	-259.5	-249.7	-259.9	532.7	0.3	-81	-230.1	-529.6	131.1	-316.2	-266.3	13.2	25.29	-5.904	-33.51	49.1	72.32	34.16	-21.23
Change	-	-3.77%	-324%	53.38%	112.87%	-954.68%	73.8%	226.73%	-69.88%	-847.84%	3.78%	-4.08%	304.96%	-99.94%	-27,100%	-184.07%	-130.16%	124.75%	-341.19%	15.78%	104.96%	91.63%	-123.35%	-467.54%	246.52%	47.29%	-52.76%	-162.15%
Net income ¹	-115.5	-114.7	-486.7	-226.2	25.2	-245.2	-77.4	27.4	64.3	-183.5	-220	-219.4	294.9	22.1	-52.2	-172.8	-471.2	110.4	-189.1	3,410	42	33.63	10.67	-72.35	24.35	46.2	15.6	-124.6
Change	-	0.69%	-324.32%	53.52%	111.14%	-1,073.02%	68.43%	135.4%	134.67%	-385.38%	-19.89%	0.27%	234.41%	-92.51%	-336.2%	-231.03%	-172.69%	123.43%	-271.29%	1,903.07%	-98.77%	-19.92%	-68.29%	-778.28%	133.66%	89.73%	-66.23%	-898.72%
Announcement Date	8/5/20	11/4/20	2/22/21	5/5/21	7/28/21	11/3/21	2/9/22	5/4/22	7/27/22	11/2/22	2/21/23	4/27/23	7/26/23	11/1/23	2/20/24	5/1/24	7/31/24	11/6/24	2/24/25	4/30/25	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Balance Sheet: GFL Environmental Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Net Debt ¹	6,433	9,416	9,185	8,701	9,866	6,210	5,628	5,585
Change	-	46.37%	-2.45%	-5.27%	13.39%	-37.05%	-9.37%	-0.76%
Announcement Date	2/22/21	2/9/22	2/21/23	2/20/24	2/24/25	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million

Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: GFL Environmental Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
CAPEX ¹	428.3	647.2	780.1	1,055	231.5	1,035	909.8	963.8
Change	-	51.11%	20.53%	35.25%	-78.06%	347.01%	-12.08%	5.94%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) ¹	73.9	250.7	316.2	701.2	820.3	742.8	927.3	1,015
Change	-	239.24%	26.13%	121.76%	16.99%	-9.45%	24.84%	9.46%
Announcement Date	2/22/21	2/9/22	2/21/23	2/20/24	2/24/25	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million

Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: GFL Environmental Inc.

Fiscal Period: December	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027
Profitability
EBITDA Margin (%)	25.66%	26.49%	25.45%	26.66%	28.63%	29.73%	30.66%	31.31%
EBIT Margin (%)	-7.59%	-1.16%	0.99%	3.93%	5.81%	8.39%	11.49%	13.17%
EBT Margin (%)	-32.31%	-12.9%	-5.31%	2.56%	-12.02%	-3.98%	3.29%	4.44%
Net margin (%)	-23.71%	-10.98%	-4.61%	0.6%	-9.19%	53.64%	2.13%	-1.19%
FCF margin (%)	1.76%	4.54%	4.68%	9.33%	10.43%	11.33%	13.17%	13.1%
FCF / Net Income (%)	-7.43%	-41.32%	-101.41%	1,544.49%	-113.5%	21.12%	617.62%	-1,103.26%
Profitability
ROA	0.44%	-	0.93%	1.81%	1.56%	0.67%	1.2%	-
ROE	-23.56%	-10.69%	-5.28%	5.43%	4.54%	2.65%	4.36%	7.02%
Financial Health
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	5.97x	6.43x	5.34x	4.34x	4.38x	3.19x	2.61x	2.3x
Debt / Free cash flow	87.05x	37.56x	29.05x	12.41x	12.03x	8.36x	6.07x	5.5x
Capital Intensity
CAPEX / Current Assets (%)	10.21%	11.71%	11.54%	14.04%	2.94%	15.78%	12.92%	12.44%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%)	39.78%	44.22%	45.33%	52.66%	10.29%	53.09%	42.13%	39.72%
CAPEX / FCF (%)	579.57%	258.16%	246.71%	150.47%	28.22%	139.32%	98.12%	94.96%
Items per share
Cash flow per share ¹	1.394	2.483	2.986	2.652	3.915	3.484	5.287	-
Change	-	78.21%	20.23%	-11.17%	47.62%	-11.02%	51.75%	-
Dividend per Share ¹	0.0508	0.0557	0.0651	0.0703	0.0808	0.0699	0.0758	0.0801
Change	-	9.57%	16.96%	7.96%	14.97%	-13.5%	8.46%	5.67%
Book Value Per Share ¹	15.76	17.07	16.44	19.42	17.74	19.52	20.05	19.99
Change	-	8.35%	-3.7%	18.08%	-8.63%	10.01%	2.74%	-0.3%
EPS ¹	-2.8	-1.83	-1.08	-0.13	-2.11	8.007	0.3448	0.0897
Change	-	34.64%	40.98%	87.96%	-1,523.08%	479.47%	-95.69%	-74%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	326,364	336,113	343,404	369,985	393,383	366,707	366,707	366,707
Announcement Date	2/22/21	2/9/22	2/21/23	2/20/24	2/24/25	-	-	-