Sep-20 H1
Financial
Results
Presentation
December 2020
Disclaimer
Forward Looking Statements. This presentation (this "Presentation") contains certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, including statements regarding Global Blue Group Holding AG's ("Global Blue", "we" or "us") or its management's expectations, hopes, beliefs, intentions or strategies regarding the future. The words "anticipate", "believe", "continue", "could", "estimate", "expect", "intends", "may", "might", "plan", "possible", "potential", "predict", "project", "should", "would" and similar expressions may identify forward-looking statements, but the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. These forward looking statements are based Global Blue's current expectations and beliefs concerning future developments and their potential effects on Global Blue. There can be no assurance that the future developments affecting Global Blue will be those that we have anticipated. These forward- looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties (some of which are beyond Global Blue's control) or other assumptions that may cause actual results or performance to be materially different from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. These include commercial expectations and other external factors, including political, legal, fiscal, market and economic conditions and factors affecting travel and traveller shopping, including the global COVID-19 pandemic and applicable legislation, regulations and rules (including, but not limited to, accounting policies and accounting treatments), movements in foreign exchange rates and other factors described under "Risk Factors" in Global Blue's prospectus dated October 13, 2020 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") pursuant to Rule 424(b) of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, on October 15, 2020, and in other reports we file from time to time with the SEC, all of which are difficult to predict and are beyond Global Blue's control. Except as required by law, Global Blue is not undertaking any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Intellectual Property. All rights to the trademarks, copyrights, logos and other intellectual property listed herein belong to their respective owners and Global Blue's use thereof does not imply an affiliation with, or endorsement by, the owners of such trademarks, copyrights, logos and other intellectual property. Solely for convenience, trademarks and trade names referred to in this presentation may appear with the ® or ™ symbols, but such references are not intended to indicate, in any way, that such names and logos are trademarks or registered trademarks of Global Blue.
Industry and Market Data. This Presentation contains statistical data, estimates and forecasts that have been provided by Global Blue and/or are based on independent industry publications or other publicly available information, as well as other information based on Global Blue's internal sources. This information involves many assumptions and limitations and you are cautioned not to give undue weight to these estimates. We have not independently verified the accuracy or completeness of such data, including those contained in these industry publications and other publicly available information. Accordingly, none of Global Blue nor its affiliates and advisors makes any representations as to the accuracy or completeness of these data. Certain amounts described herein have been expressed in U.S. dollars for convenience and, when expressed in U.S. dollars in the future, such amounts may be different from those set forth herein.
Financial Information. The historic financial information respecting Global Blue contained in this Presentation has been taken from or prepared based on the historical audited financial statements of Global Blue, which have been prepared in accordance with the International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS") as adopted by the International Accounting Standards Board ("IASB"), which are not materially different from IFRS as issued by the EU.
Non-IFRSFinancial Measures. This presentation includes certain financial measures not prepared in accordance with IFRS, which constitute "non-IFRS financial measures" as defined by the rules of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. These non-IFRS financial measures include: Adjusted Operating Expenses, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA Margin, Adjusted Depreciation & Amortization, Adjusted EBIT, Adjusted Profit Before Tax, Adjusted Income Tax Expense, Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Net Income (Group Share), Net Financial Debt, Net Leverage Ratio.
Global Blue has included these non-IFRS financial measures because it believes they provide an additional tool for investors to use in evaluating the financial performance and prospects of Global Blue. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered in isolation from, or as an alternative to, financial measures determined in accordance with IFRS. In addition, these non-IFRS financial measures may differ from non-IFRS financial measures with comparable names used by other companies. Note however, that to the extent forward-lookingnon-IFRS financial measures are provided herein, they are not reconciled to comparable historic IFRS measures due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting and quantifying certain amounts that are necessary for such reconciliation.
2
Today's Presenters
Jacques STERN
President and
Chief Executive Officer
Joined Global Blue in 2015 ~30 years experience École Supérieure de Commerce de Lille
2010 - 2015 | Chairman and CEO |
1992 - 2010 | Various positions |
including CFO and Deputy CEO | |
1988 - 1992 | Auditor |
Loïc JENOUVRIER
Chief Financial Officer
Joined Global Blue in 2015 ~25 years experience
École Supérieure de Commerce d'Angers
2009 - 2015 CFO
2004 - 2009 CFO and Member of Management Board
1990 - 2004 Various positions
including CFO of Accor Casino
3
AGENDA
H1 | ||
H1 | STRATEGIC | RECOVERY |
FINANCIAL | INITIATIVES AND | |
SCENARIO | ||
PERFORMANCE | REGULATORY | |
UPDATE
4
AGENDA
H1 | ||
H1 | STRATEGIC | RECOVERY |
FINANCIAL | INITIATIVES AND | |
SCENARIO | ||
PERFORMANCE | REGULATORY | |
UPDATE
5
H1 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Global Blue's financial year ends on March 31st.
This report focuses on the half year performance, from April 1st to September 30th, 2020.
#1
#2
#3
COVID-19 has SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED the Travel Retail industry,
leading to a -91% drop in Global Blue's revenues in H1 2020/21.
Global Blue Management have implemented a WIDE-RANGINGSAVINGS PROGRAM to mitigate the revenue decrease.
The Fixed Adjusted Operating Expenses have been reduced by -54%IN H1.
Total liquidity stands at €332M, consisting of €250M cash and €82M additional liquidity.
The current liquidity level implies that FIXED EXPENDITURES ARE COVERED WELL INTO CALENDAR YEAR 2022.
6
Note: Adjusted Operating Expenses is a Non-IFRS Financial Measure, see the appendix for a reconciliation to the nearest IFRS financial measure
Adjusted P&L
Half Year, €M | H1 2019/20A | H1 2020/21A | M€ | ||
Total Revenue | 20.0 | ||||
227.7 | (207.7) | ||||
Adjusted Operating Expenses | (126.4) | (39.5) | 86.9 | ||
Adjusted EBITDA | 101.3 | (19.5) | (120.7) | ||
Adjusted Depreciation & Amortization | (17.7) | (21.2) | (3.5) | ||
Adjusted EBIT | 83.6 | (40.6) | (124.2) | ||
Net Finance costs | (16.2) | (11.8) | 4.4 | ||
Adjusted Profit Before Tax | 67.4 | (52.4) | (119.8) | ||
Adjusted Income Tax Expense | (16.6) | 8.2 | 24.8 | ||
Adjusted Net Income | 50.8 | (44.2) | (95.0) | ||
Non controlling interests | (3.8) | 1.1 | 4.8 | ||
Adjusted Net Income Group Share | 47.1 | (43.1) | (90.2) | ||
Note: Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted Depreciation & Amortization, Adjusted EBIT, Adjusted Profit Before Tax, Adjusted Income Tax Expense, Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Net Income Group Share are Non-IFRS Financial | 7 |
Measures, see the appendix for a reconciliation to the nearest IFRS financial measures | |
PHASE 1PHASE 2PHASE 3PHASE 4PHASE 5
COVID-19 has disrupted Tax Free Shopping, leading to 95% SIS & 93% Revenue decline in H1 2020/21 vs. H1 2019/20
ISSUED TAX FREE SPEND FOR H1 2020/21 AS A % OF H1 2019/20 | ISSUED TAX FREE SPEND FOR H1 2020/21 AS A % OF H1 2019/20 |
S. KOREA & JAPAN | |
APRIL - SEPTEMBER | APRIL - SEPTEMBER |
EUROPE | APAC |
8% | 5% |
SINGAPORE
ABOVE 15% | ABOVE 10% | ABOVE 5% |
8
PHASE 1 | PHASE 2 | PHASE 3 | PHASE 4 | PHASE 5 |
COVID-19 has disrupted the Added Value Payment Services,
leading to 79% SIS & 82% Revenue decline
in H1 2020/21 vs. H1 2019/20
POTENTIAL SIS FOR H1 2020/21 AS a % OF H1 2019/20 | POTENTIAL SIS FOR H1 2020/21 AS a % OF H1 2019/20 |
S. KOREA & JAPAN & TAIWAN | |
APRIL - SEPTEMBER | APRIL - SEPTEMBER |
EUROPE | APAC |
15% | 10% |
SINGAPORE
AUSTRALIA
ABOVE 15% | ABOVE 5% | ABOVE 1% |
9
H1 Adjusted Operating Expenses
54% reduction of Fixed Adjusted Operating Expenses in H1 2020/21
(€M)
VARIABLE
FIXED non personnel
FIXED personnel
126.4
46.7
28.1
51.5
H1 2019/20
ADJUSTED OPERATING EXPENSES
(43.5)
VOLUME DRIVEN
REDUCTION
SHORT-TERM H1 €43M Savings
(-54%) utilizing
available
government support schemes & company savings program
(15.0)
(28.4)
(43.4)
SHORT TERM
ACTIONS
39.5
3.2
13.1
23.2
H1 2020/21
ADJUSTED OPERATING EXPENSES
10
H1 Adjusted Other Costs
ADJUSTED DEPRECIATION & AMORTIZATION
D&A increased by 20% primarily due to an increased investment in technology in the prior financial years, consistent with the management team's focus on digital innovation
(€M)
+3.5
21.2
17.7
NET FINANCE COSTS
Finance costs decreased by 27% mainly due to a lower leverage ratio leading to a better margin
(€M)
(4.4)
16.2
11.8
H1 2019/20A | H1 2020/21A | H1 2019/20A | H1 2020/21A | 11 |
H1 Net Financial Debt Variance Analysis
Half Year, €M | H1 2019/20A | H1 2020/21A | |||
Adjusted EBITDA | (19.5) | ||||
101.3 | |||||
Capital Expenditure | (14.4) | (11.0) | |||
Adjusted EBITDA - Capex | 86.8 | (30.5) | |||
Changes in working capital | (64.2) | 25.4 | |||
Income tax (paid)/received | (14.7) | 0.1 | |||
Interests paid | (12.1) | (9.6) | |||
Lease Payments | (8.1) | (7.3) | |||
Dividend paid to non-controlling interests | (4.8) | - | |||
Translation difference and other | (2.8) | 1.2 | |||
Net Financial Debt Variation | (19.9) | (20.7) | |||
before Exceptional items | |||||
Exceptional Items (1) | (9.2) | (54.5) | |||
Net Financial Debt Variation | (29.0) | (75.3) | |||
(1) In H1 2020/21 Exceptional Items mainly include €(47.0)M related to the combination with FPAC and €(7.0)M related to business restructuring | 12 |
Note : Net Financial Debt is a Non-IFRS Financial Measure, see the appendix for a reconciliation to the nearest IFRS financial measure | |
Net Financial Debt as of September 30th, 2020
Refinancing
On 28th August 2020, upon business combination with FPAC, Global Blue
refinanced its senior debt (€630 M) and revolving credit facility (€100M, of which € 99M was drawn as of September 30, 2020). Both have a maturity date of August 28, 2025.
Supplemental Liquidity Facility of $75M
In connection with the closing of the transaction, pre-transaction shareholders have agreed to grant Global Blue a $75M (c.€63M) Supplemental Liquidity Facility. This facility is available for 18-months and has a two-year maturity once drawn.
Covenant conditions
- No covenant test until September 30, 2021.
- Semi-annualtest on covenant starting on September 30, 2021 based on a leverage ratio test not to exceed 5.0x on September 30, 2021, step down progressively to 3.5x by maturity.
- Supplemental Liquidity Facility can be included in the EBITDA cure mechanism.
-
The next 24 months savings (up to 25% of LTM EBITDA),
as a result of restructuring can also be added to the EBITDA (Pro forma adjustment). - Based on management's current projections, the Company is anticipating that it could be in breach of this covenant when required to report for the period ended September 30, 2021 and plans to engage in discussions with lenders in the near term.
€M | FY 2019/20A | H1 2020/21A | M€ | ||
Senior Debt | 630.0 | 630.0 | 0,0 | ||
Revolving Credit Facility | 0.0 | 99.0 | 99.0 | ||
Gross Financial Debt | 630.0 | 729.0 | 99.0 | ||
Cash & Cash equivalents | (226.1) | (249.9) | (23.7) | ||
Net Financial Debt | 403.9 | 479.1 | 75.3 | ||
Adjusted EBITDA | 170.7 | 50.0 | - | ||
(on a rolling 12-month basis) | |||||
Net Leverage Ratio | 2.4x | 9.6x | - | ||
13
Liquidity Analysis as of September 30th, 2020
Current liquidity implies fixed expenditures to be covered well into calendar year 2022
H1 2020/21 MONTHLY AVERAGE FIXED EXPENDITURES - €10.7 M | LIQUIDITY BUILD - €332M (Sept 2020) | |
Additional liquidity (1) | |||||
€1.6M | €10.7M | €82M | |||
€1.2M | |||||
Interests paid | |||||
€1.8M | Lease | ||||
Payments | |||||
€6.0M | Capital | ||||
Expenditure | |||||
Cash | |||||
€250M | |||||
Fixed | Total | ||||
Adjusted Operating | Fixed Expenditures | ||||
Expenses |
(1) Committed Supplemental Liquidity Facility of $75M or €63M, uncommitted local credit lines of €18M, and RCF availability of €1M | 14 |
AGENDA
H1 | H1 | |
STRATEGIC | RECOVERY | |
FINANCIAL | INITIATIVES AND | |
SCENARIO | ||
PERFORMANCE | REGULATORY | |
UPDATE
15
H1 STRATEGIC INITIATIVES
#1 | While implementing the H1 Savings Program, Global Blue has continued to invest |
in the future through the following strategic initiatives: |
▪ MOBILE FIRST Tax Free Shopping Solution enabling International Shoppers to experience an end-to-end mobile experience.
▪ CAMPAIGN MANAGER plug & play technology and communication solution allowing "extra refund" drive to store marketing campaign.
▪ CONSUMER DATA technology enabling Data Driven Advisory solution for retailers.
▪ Jointly developed Technology and Marketing solutions with ANT GROUP improving the shopping experience of Chinese International Shoppers.
#2 | Following the UK Government's decision to ABOLISH THE UK TAX FREE SHOPPING SCHEME |
from Jan 1st 2021, Global Blue & the Industry have actively lobbied to REVERSE THE DECISION. |
16
Development of a Mobile 1st solution in H1 2020/21
Enhance the traveller and store staff experience with a paperless, 100% mobile and digital
experience, assisted step by step via Global Blue's Mobile Customer Care product
IN STORE | OUTSIDE STORE | |||||||||
SPEED UP | KEEP SOCIAL | RESPECT | MAKE GEN-Z | INCREASE | BE MOBILE, | |||
STORE | DISTANCING | ENVIRONMENT | HAPPY | REFUND RATIO | AS YOUR | |||
ACTIVITIES | TRAVELLERS | |||||||
ARE | ||||||||
CUSTOMER ENROLLMENT | ACCESS SERVICE WITH | COMPLETE WITH MISSED | ENJOY MOBILE ISSUING | VALIDATE TRHOUGH | ENJOY YOUR MOBILE REFUND ON CREDIT CARD | |||
COMPLETE TXN VIEW | DATA AND PAYMENT TYPE | MOBILE, APP, 3rd PARTIES | OR WALLET AND CONTINUE SHOPPING | |||||
ONLY PASSPORT
NUMBER, NATIONALITY,
EMAIL/SMS
AT TILL OR
MOBILE POS
17
Strategic Partnership with Ant Group
PARTNERSHIP OVERVIEW | EASY REFUND PRODUCT (EARLY 2021 LAUNCH) | ||
Jointly develop digital TFS solutions and products | |||
TECHNOLOGY | |||
to reduce friction, achieve paperless TFS and | |||
enhance the user experience for Alipay users | |||
MARKETING | Jointly develop a comprehensive marketing | ||
solution leveraging on Alipay's Marketing platform | |||
BRAND MINI-PROGRAM WITH CASH BACK OR | |||
COMMERCIAL | Promote acceptance of Alipay and its Ecosystem | EXTRA REFUND COUPON (EARLY 2021 LAUNCH) | |
Companies in Global Blue's network of Merchants | |||
18
Source: Company Information.
UK Tax Free Shopping Scheme Abolition
On Sept. 11th, the UK Government announced the decision to abolish the VAT Export Scheme from January 1st 2021, which allowed international visitors to the UK to reclaim the VAT paid on goods purchased, but not consumed, in the UK.
The UK Government justified the decision on the following basis, which are disputed by Global Blue and the industry:
POLITICAL | FINANCIAL | |||||
▪ No extension of Tax-Free Shopping | ▪ | "Saving" of £500M of VAT per annum | ||||
scheme to EU27 in the context of | refunded to non-EU shoppers. | |||||
Brexit negotiation. | ||||||
▪ | No VAT to be refunded to EU citizens | |||||
(if extension of the scheme to EU27). |
- Removal of an implicit subsidy to London businesses in the context of the "levelling up" policy.
OPERATIONAL
- Inability of Customs to manage additional Tax Free volume coming from EU shoppers (as, unlike other countries, the UK has not digitalized its paper-based customs system).
unlike other countries, the UK has not digitalized its paper-based customs system)
DESPITE ACTIVE LOBBYING FROM GLOBAL BLUE AND THE INDUSTRY, TAX FREE SHOPPING SCHEME
WILL MOST LIKELY BE ABOLISHED BY DECEMBER 31st 2020
19
UK Tax Free Shopping scheme abolition impact
could be mitigated by 2 positive factors
DIRECT LOSS OF REVENUE FOLLOWING THE LIKELY ABOLITION OF UK TAX FREE SHOPPING SCHEME
FY2019/20A UK TFS Revenue:
€49M
(12% of Global Blue Revenue of FY2019/20A)
MITIGATING FACTOR #1
A significant proportion of international shoppers who had previously shopped in the UK would consider redirecting their purchases to EU 27(1):
62% | 95% | 93% | ||
of respondents | would spend less | would consider | ||
will be less likely | on shopping | changing where | ||
to visit the UK | in the UK | they shop overseas | ||
International Shoppers are highly mobile and price sensitive:
2.6 countries visited per trip in Europe and price elasticity ratio is >1.8
MITIGATION FACTOR #2
- From January 1st 2021, UK residents will be able to shop Tax Free in EU 27.
- Potential additional revenue: +~4% of revenue FY2019/20A(2) .
(1) | Survey based on 40K + Tax Free Shoppers across all geographies (between September 14th and 16th, 2020) | 20 |
(2) | Global Blue estimation |
AGENDA
H1 | H1 | |
STRATEGIC | RECOVERY | |
FINANCIAL | INITIATIVES AND | |
SCENARIO | ||
PERFORMANCE | REGULATORY | |
UPDATE
21
#1
#2
#3
RECOVERY SCENARIO
Global Blue Consumer Surveys show that 66% of International Shoppers have expressed a strong appetite to travel again(1) in the coming months. For Elite and Frequent shoppers, the percentage increases to 75% for Chinese and 99% for Russians.
The recent vaccine announcements by major pharmaceutical companies allows us to envisage a gradual return to normal/pre-COVID levels based on a 5 PHASES SCENARIO.
As a result of the Savings Program implemented in H1 2020/21, a recovery to 2019 revenue level would imply AN IMPROVEMENT OF 800 BPS OF ADJUSTED EBITDA MARGIN (50% versus 42%).
(1) Appetite to travel is contingent on open borders and no quarantine | 22 |
Global Blue has taken the international shopping market's pulse by
running a survey on Tax Free Shoppers
~16,000 international shoppers | ||||
Every month | ||||
From 5 countries | GCC | …answering 1 main question | ||
GR.CH. | SEA |
Are international shoppers ready to travel again?
Surveyed countries: Greater China (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao), South East Asia (Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam), United States of America, Russia, Gulf Cooperation | 2323 |
Council (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar) |
Are international shoppers ready to travel again?
International shoppers are increasingly willing to travel in coming months
How are you feeling now about the prospect of an overseas trip next month? If borders open, with no quarantine, would you go?
+6pp | -1pp |
+8pp |
+13pp
+18pp
+1pp
60% 66%
49%
67%
58%
98%
79%
56%
JUNE'20 | JULY -SEPT'20 | OCTOBER'20 | ||||||
BAROMETER 1 | BAROMETER 2,3,4 (1) | BAROMETER 5 | GR.CH. | SEA | GCC | |||
• The per country analysis is calculated with the Weighted average based on Tax Free spend distribution | ||||||||
across travellers nationalities in 2019 | ||||||||
• Greater China = Mainland China, Hongkong, Macau, Taiwan. | ||||||||
• SEA = Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam. | ||||||||
(1) The average of barometers 2, 3 and 4 is calculated based on barometers results weighted by the number of monthly | • GCC = Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar | 24 | ||||||
• Tax Free Shoppers that have spent at least €3K in the past 4 months for which a Tax Free Form has | ||||||||
respondents | been issued and refunded |
Are international shoppers ready to travel again?
This figure reaches 72% for Elite & Frequent shoppers, +5 ppts compared to this summer
How are you feeling now about the prospect of an overseas trip next month? If borders open, with no quarantine, would you go?
+5pp | +7pp | |
73% | +2pp | |
72% | ||
65% | ||
66%53%
+13pp
+27pp | 99% |
92% | |
-3pp | |
63% |
OCTOBER | INFREQUENT |
1 trip per year | |
not familiar with TFS |
Note: The per country analysis is calculated with the Weighted average based on Tax Free spend distribution across travellers nationalities in 2019
FREQUENT + ELITE
2+ trips per year
know how TFS works | GR.CH. | SEA | GCC |
+ | |||
€40K+ in last 2 years | |||
know how TFS works | |||
Increase compared to previous barometer | Decrease compared to previous barometer | 25 | |
Tax Free Shopping recovery expected in 5 phases
Given the willingness of International Shopper to travel again, when,
where and how can we expect a return to "normal" ?
REGIONAL BORDERS | INTERNATIONAL | END OF THE |
REOPENING | BORDERS REOPENING | PANDEMIC |
PHASE 1
BORDERS CLOSED
STORES OPEN
ESTIMATED % TAX FREE SPEND VS 2019
< 5%
Europe
< 5%
Asia
STRICT SANITARY CONTROLS | |
PHASE 2 | PHASE 3 |
INTRA-REGIONAL | LONG-HAUL |
TRAVELS RE-START | FLIGHTS RE-START |
WHERE
WE STAND
TODAY
10 - 20%20 - 40%
10 - 20%60 - 80%
PHASE 4 | PHASE 5 |
GRADUAL RETURN | NORMAL |
TO NORMAL
60 - 80%95 - 105%
90 - 100%100 - 110%
The figures above represent assumptions used in management's long-term targets and do not constitute guidance. Recovery may not occur linearly. Borders and stores may close, and travel may be curtailed again depending | 26 |
on how the pandemic continues to develop. This is forward-looking information - see Disclaimer. Source: Company Information. |
PHASE 1 | PHASE 2 | PHASE 3 | PHASE 4 | PHASE 5 |
TRIGGER FOR INTERNATIONAL TRAVELS RE-START
When will international travel re-start?
Visa, borders openings & aligned sanitary conditions are 3 pre-requisites …
VISA AVAILABILITY
NUMBER OF VISA
CENTERS OPEN
BORDERS REOPENINGS
ABILITY TO TRAVEL TO REGIONAL &
LONGHAUL DESTINATION
ALIGNED
SANITARY CONDITIONS
NUMBER OF NEW INFECTED CASES
PER 100,000 INHABITANTS
LESS THAN 20 NEW CASES PER 100,000 INHABITANTS (December 5th, 2020)
ORIGIN | DESTINATION | |
MARKETS | MARKETS | |
12 weeks* | ||
Greater China | Singapore | |
0 weeks* | ||
S. Korea | ||
0 weeks* | ||
Japan |
*week with less than 5 case per 100,000 inhabitants
MORE THAN 50 CASES PER 100,000 INHABITANTS (December 5th, 2020)
ORIGIN | DESTINATION | |||
MARKETS | MARKETS | |||
GCC | UK |
Germany
Spain
Russia
Italy
France
United States
27
PHASE 1 | PHASE 2 | PHASE 3 | PHASE 4 | PHASE 5 |
TRIGGER FOR INTERNATIONAL TRAVELS RE-START
… as well as fast testing and the end of quarantine measures
FAST TESTING TO SUPPORT | AIR TRAVEL IS LIMITED BY |
INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC RECOVERY | QUARANTINE RISK UPON RETURN |
A lack of testing protocol alignment drives confusion | Impact of quarantine on traffic to Singapore recovery |
#1 Pre-travel testing | #2 Testing @destination |
AIRLINES, IATA AND INTERNATIONAL | SOME DESTINATIONS MARKET |
TRAVELLERS FAVORED SOLUTION TO | AUTHORITIES PREFER TO |
REDUCE TRAVEL UNCERTAINTY | CONTROL SANITARY STATUS OF |
PASSENGERS AT ARRIVALS |
LEISURE NOV 6TH
QUARANTINE ON RETURN
Greater China
LEISURE NOV 23RD
NO QUARANTINE ON RETURN
Hong Kong
3%
OF CHRISTMAS 2019 BOOKINGS
TO SINGAPORE
50%
OF CHRISTMAS 2019 BOOKINGS
TO SINGAPORE
28
PHASE 1 | PHASE 2 | PHASE 3 | PHASE 4 | PHASE 5 |
TRIGGER FOR GRADUAL RETURN TO NORMAL
The vaccine will then enable a return to Normal…
#1
VACCINE
EFFICACY
#2
VACCINE SUPPLY
#3
WILLINGNESS TO
BE VACINATED
92% 95%
70% 95%
2.5 billion doses by
mid 2021 based on vaccine firms currently in phase 3
60% of worldwide
population are considering vaccination when available
STATUS
VACCINE APPROVED LOCALLY OR FOR EMERGENCY USE
CAPACITY
(Bn DOSES / YEAR)
1.0
0.1
-
0.1
0.3
1.3
1.0
3.0
2.0
VACCINE IN CLINICAL PHASE 3
GLOBAL ROLL OUT
Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21
v
v
UNDER REVIEW FOR APPROVAL
Sources: Laboratories, New York Times, Guardians, Les Echos | 29 |
PHASE 1 | PHASE 2 | PHASE 3 | PHASE 4 | PHASE 5 |
GRADUAL RETURN TO NORMAL
- that we expect to be gradual with a 3 to 6 months recovery lead time: from 90 to 100% in APAC and 60 to 80% in Europe
2003 SARS OUTBREAK EPIDEMIC - % TAX FREE SPEND PROGRESSION (YOY)
The 2003 SARS example shows that it took around 3 months to fully recover
39% | 34% | ||||||||||||||||
30% | 32% | ||||||||||||||||
29% | 27% | 29% | 29% | ||||||||||||||
13% | 13% | 16% | 18% | ||||||||||||||
9% | |||||||||||||||||
5% | 6% | ||||||||||||||||
0% | 2% | ||||||||||||||||
-1% | -1% | ||||||||||||||||
-12% | |||||||||||||||||
-21% | -16%-16% | WHO ANNOUNCED | |||||||||||||||
-24% | |||||||||||||||||
-28% | -30% | GLOBAL CONTROL | |||||||||||||||
-32% | -32% | ||||||||||||||||
JULY 5TH | |||||||||||||||||
-52% | -55% | ||||||||||||||||
JAN-03 | FEB-03 | MAR-03 | APR-03 | MAY-03 | JUNE-03 | JUL-03 | AUG-03 | SEP-03 | OCT-03 |
EUROPEAPAC WORLDWIDE
LAG EFFECT BETWEEN BOOKING & TRAVEL (IN A NON PANDEMIC CONTEXT)
In a "return to normal" context a lag effect is taken into consideration between decisions to travel and trip date, which vary by nationality
LEAD TIME AVG. DAYS (AIR BOOKINGS)
SOURCE MARKET | EUROPE | ASIA |
96N/A
55N/A
5642
36N/A
30
Source: Forward keys
PHASE 1 | PHASE 2 | PHASE 3 | PHASE 4 | PHASE 5 |
NORMAL
When back to Normal, we expect Chinese International Shoppers to lead the international shopping spending, on the back of a faster economic rebound
GDP GROWTH
6.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | |||
4.9% | |||||||
1.9%2.3% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.5% | ||||
3.0% | 2.1% | ||||||
1.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | ||||
0.6% | |||||||
2.7% | -2.7% | ||||||
-2.0% | 1.4% | -0.9% | -2.9% | ||||
-4.4% | |||||||
-5.6% | |||||||
-6.8% | |||||||
-7.0% | -6.1% | ||||||
-9.6% | |||||||
-9.0% | -11.9% | ||||||
-12.0%
-17.0%
-21.5%
-22.0%
Q1 2019 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 2020 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 Est |
ESTIMATION
-
China's GDP is expected to cross
100-trillion yuan mark in 2020, equivalent to the total combined GDP of Japan, Germany, UK and France. - On 11.11 (Singles' Day), Sales reached new heights
-
IMF forecasted in Oct. that China's
2021 GDP growth rate would be 8.2%.
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development
31
Tax Free Shopping recovery expected in 5 phases
REGIONAL BORDERS | INTERNATIONAL | END OF THE |
REOPENING | BORDERS REOPENING | PANDEMIC |
PHASE 1
BORDERS CLOSED
STORES OPEN
ESTIMATED % TAX FREE SPEND VS 2019
< 5%
Europe
< 5%
Asia
STRICT SANITARY CONTROLS | |
PHASE 2 | PHASE 3 |
INTRA-REGIONAL | LONG-HAUL |
TRAVELS RE-START | FLIGHTS RE-START |
WHERE
WE STAND
TODAY
10 - 20%20 - 40%
10 - 20%60 - 80%
PHASE 4 | PHASE 5 |
GRADUAL RETURN | NORMAL |
TO NORMAL
60 - 80%95 - 105%
90 - 100%100 - 110%
The figures above represent assumptions used in management's long-term targets and do not constitute guidance. Recovery may not occur linearly. Borders and stores may close, and travel may be curtailed again depending | 32 |
on how the pandemic continues to develop. This is forward-looking information - see Disclaimer. Source: Company Information. |
Given the recovery scenario expected and the Savings Program executed in H1, what will be the impact on Global Blue's long-term profitability ?
SHORT TERM
FIXED ADJUSTED
OPERATING EXPENSES
SAVINGS PROGRAM
LONG TERM
FIXED ADJUSTED OPERATING EXPENSES SAVINGS PROGRAM
Use of government support schemes (furlough or partial employment schemes) where available.
Implement at the end of government support schemes, long-term headcount reduction, while preserving core knowledge and assessed business resumption scenarios.
50% expected savings on total fixed adjusted operating expenses.
54% was achieved in
H1 2020.
30% expected long- term savings on total fixed adjusted operating expenses.
33
Yearly Proforma Fixed Adjusted Operating Expenses Structure
after savings program implemented in H1 2020
FIXED ADJUSTED OPERATING EXPENSES
(€M) | 250 | (90) | |||||||||
SHORT-TERM REDUCTION | |||||||||||
€80M Savings(1) | |||||||||||
leveraging available government | |||||||||||
VARIABLE | 90 | (90) | support schemes & limited volume | ||||||||
LONG-TERM REDUCTION | |||||||||||
160 | (80) | €50M Savings | |||||||||
redundancies | |||||||||||
& resumed volume | |||||||||||
FIXED | 58 | 58 | (27) | ||||||||
30 | 110 | ||||||||||
non personnel | (54) | ||||||||||
80 | 11 | ||||||||||
19 | 42 | ||||||||||
FIXED | 103 | 103 | 31 | ||||||||
personnel | |||||||||||
67 | |||||||||||
49 | |||||||||||
ADJUSTED OPERATING | VOLUME DRIVEN | TOTAL FIXED | SHORT TERM ACTIONS | FIXED AJUSTED | REDUCED SAVINGS | FIXED ADJUSTED | |||||
EXPENSES | REDUCTION | ADJUSTED OPERATING | (12 MONTHS RUN-RATE) | OPERATING EXPENSES | (12 MONTHS RUN-RATE) | OPERATING EXPENSES | |||||
EXPENSES | BASE POST SHORT TERM | BASE POST LONG TERM | |||||||||
ACTIONS | ACTIONS | ||||||||||
(1) €80M 12 months run-rate on short-term actions in line with the €43M reduction in H1 2020/21 | 34 |
Note: The figures above represent assumptions used in management's long-term targets and do not constitute guidance |
Illustrative EBITDA at various potential revenue recovery levels
SAVINGS PROGRAM TAKE-OUT
ADJUSTED EBITDA | €254M |
€221M | 33 |
35 | 221 |
€50M
Total savings being
implemented
€(8)M | €187M |
Re-hires | €42M |
Future re-hires
for positions
deemed semi-
fixed,
which are made redundant today
42%
Total savings
(at 70% recovery)
Jan-20
LTM EBITDA(1)
€188M | |||||
€156M | 36 | 187 | |||
39 | 152 | ||||
€124M | |||||
42 | 117 | ||||
52% | % Adjusted | ||||
50% | EBITDA Margin | ||||
83 | 47% | ||||
44% | |||||
40% | |||||
70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 110% | |
ILLUSTRATIVE TOP-LINE RECOVERY RANGE (% OF PRE-COVID REVENUE) |
(1) Jan-2020 LTM EBITDA presented assuming bonus normalization. Source: Company Information. | 35 |
Note: Simulation based on illustrative assumptions and should not be relied upon as being indicative of future results. This is not a forecast. This is forward-looking information - see Disclaimer. |
CONCLUSION
The recent COVID-19 vaccine announcements open the possibility for a
GRADUAL RECOVERY OF GLOBAL BLUE'S BUSINESSES
EMERGING MARKETS | VAT | DIGITALISATION | ||
DYNAMICS | DYNAMICS | DYNAMICS | ||
FUNDAMENTAL GROWTH DRIVERS REMAIN INTACT
36
APPENDIX
IFRS Consolidated Income Statement and Balance Sheet Reconciliations with non-IFRS financial measures Glossary
37
IFRS Consolidated Income Statement
Half Year, €M | H1 2019/20 | H1 2020/21 |
Total Revenue | 227.7 | 20.0 |
Operating Expenses | (190.5) | (354.0) |
Operating Profit | 37.2 | (334.0) |
Finance income | 2.6 | 2.0 |
Finance costs | (18.8) | (13.8) |
Net Finance costs | (16.2) | (11.8) |
Profit Before Tax | 21.0 | (345.7) |
Income Tax Expense | (9.0) | 16.5 |
Net Income | 12.0 | (329.2) |
Profit attributable to: | ||
Owners of the parent | 8.2 | (328.2) |
Non-controlling interests | 3.8 | (1.1) |
38
Balance Sheet
€M | FY 2019/20A | H1 2020/21A | €M | FY 2019/20A | H1 2020/21A | |
Equity attributable to owners of the parent | 63.1 | (45.2) | ||||
Non-controlling interests | 8.4 | 6.3 | ||||
Shareholders Equity | 71.5 | (38.9) | ||||
Property, plant and equipment | 51.4 | 43.5 | Loans and borrowings | 624.6 | 621.7 | |
Intangible assets | 631.0 | 594.9 | Other long term liabilities | 34.6 | 25.2 | |
Deferred income tax asset | 12.3 | 21.3 | Deferred income tax liabilities | 34.6 | 25.9 | |
Investments in associates and joint ventures | 2.9 | 2.9 | Post-employment benefits | 8.0 | 8.0 | |
Other non-current receivables | 15.2 | 12.5 | Provisions for other liabilities and charges | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
Non Current Assets | 712.8 | 675.2 | Non Current Liabilities | 704.0 | 683.1 | |
Trade receivables | 141.3 | 47.2 | ||||
Other current receivables | 33.8 | 30.9 | Trade Payables | 237.3 | 169.1 | |
Derivatives financial instruments | 0.7 | 0.4 | Other current liabilities | 45.2 | 36.0 | |
Income tax receivables | 1.6 | 1.2 | Accrued liabilities | 41.8 | 36.9 | |
Prepaid expenses | 7.9 | 6.7 | Current income tax liabilities | 23.2 | 26.1 | |
Cash and cash equivalents | 226.1 | 249.9 | Loans and borrowings | 1.1 | 99.1 | |
Current Assets | 411.4 | 336.2 | Current Liabilities | 348.7 | 367.2 | |
TOTAL ASSETS | 1,124.2 | 1,011.4 | TOTAL LIABILITIES | 1,124.2 | 1,011.4 | |
39
Reconciliations (1/4)
Adjusted Operating expenses
Half Year, €M | H1 2019/20 | H1 2020/21 | ||
Operating expenses | (190.5) | (354.0) | ||
Exceptional items | 9.2 | 256.1 | ||
Amortization of intangible assets acquired through business combination | 37.2 | 37.2 | ||
Adjusted Depreciation and Amortization | 17.7 | 21.2 | ||
Adjusted Operating expenses | (126.4) | (39.5) | ||
Adjusted Depreciation & Amortization | ||||
Half Year, €M | H1 2019/20 | H1 2020/21 | ||
Depreciation & Amortization | (54.9) | (58.4) | ||
Amortization of intangible assets acquired through business combination | 37.2 | 37.2 | ||
Adjusted Depreciation & Amortization | (17.7) | (21.2) | ||
40
Reconciliations (2/4)
Adjusted EBIT and EBITDA
Half Year, €M | H1 2019/20 | H1 2020/21 |
Operating Profit | 37.2 | (334.0) |
Exceptional items | 9.2 | 256.1 |
Amortization of intangible assets acquired through business combination | 37.2 | 37.2 |
Adjusted EBIT | 83.6 | (40.6) |
Adjusted Depreciation and Amortization | 17.7 | 21.2 |
Adjusted EBITDA | 101.3 | (19.5) |
Adjusted Profit Before Tax
Half Year, €M | H1 2019/20 | H1 2020/21 |
Profit Before Tax | 21.0 | (345.7) |
Exceptional items | 9.2 | 256.1 |
Amortization of intangible assets acquired through business combination | 37.2 | 37.2 |
Adjusted Profit Before Tax | 67.4 | (52.4) |
41
Reconciliations (3/4)
Adjusted Income Tax expenses
Half Year, €M | H1 2019/20A | H1 2020/21A |
Income Tax expenses | (9.0) | 16.5 |
Income Tax expenses related to Amortization of intangible assets acquired through business combination
Tax impact of exceptional items
Exceptional income tax expenses
Tax effect adjustments
Adjusted tax expenses
(7.5) | (7.5) |
(1.1) | (1.7) |
1.1 | 0.9 |
(7.6) | (8.3) |
(16.6) | 8.2 |
Adjusted Profit / (Loss) attributable to the owner of the parent
Half Year, €M | H1 2019/20 | H1 2020/21 | |
Profit / (Loss) attributable to the owner of the parent | 8.2 | (328.2) | |
Exceptional items | 9.2 | 256.1 | |
Amortization of intangible assets acquired through business combination | 37.2 | 37.2 | |
Tax effect adjustments | (7.6) | (8.3) | |
Adjusted Profit / (Loss) attributable to the owner of the parent | 47.1 | (43.1) | 42 |
Reconciliations (4/4)
Net Financial Debt
Half Year, €M | FY 2019/20A | H1 2020/21A | M€ |
Cash & Cash Equivalent | (226.1) | (249.9) | (23.7) |
Borrowings repayable after one year | 624.6 | 621.7 | (2.8) |
Revolving credit facility | 0.0 | 99.0 | 99.0 |
Lease liabilities - repayable within one year | 14.0 | 13.1 | (0.9) |
Lease liabilities - repayable within after year | 27.8 | 23.0 | (4.8) |
Bank Overdraft | 1.1 | 0.1 | (1.0) |
Net Debt | 441.3 | 507.0 | 65.7 |
Lease liabilities - repayable within one year | (14.0) | (13.1) | 0.9 |
Lease liabilities - repayable within after year | (27.8) | (23.0) | 4.8 |
Bank Overdraft | (1.1) | (0.1) | 1.0 |
Capitalized financing cost | 9.7 | 8.3 | (1.4) |
IFRS9 loans modification impact | (4.3) | 0.0 | 4.3 |
Net Financial Debt | 403.9 | 479.1 | 75.3 |
43
Glossary
Tax Free Shopping Issued Sales In Store: sales for which a tax free form has been issued.
Added Value Payment Services Potential Sales In Store: sales for which the international shoppers have the option to use Global Blue Dynamic Currency Conversion system, services which enable international shoppers to pay in their home currency at the point of sale.
Mobile Customer Care: Tax Free Shopping real-time notification solution helping international shoppers to complete the Tax Free Shopping process.
Elite shoppers: International Shoppers who have shopped Tax Free with Global Blue for more than 40,000€ and who have made more than 3 trips over the past 24 months.
Frequent shoppers: International Shoppers who have shopped Tax Free with Global Blue for less than 40,000€ and
who have made more than 3 trips over the past 24 months.
Infrequent shoppers: International Shoppers who have shopped Tax Free with Global Blue for less than 40,000€ and who have made less than 3 trips over the past 24 months.
44
ENHANCING THE INTERNATIONAL SHOPPING EXPERIENCE
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Global Blue Group Holding Ltd. published this content on 15 December 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 17 December 2020 08:18:05 UTC