GlobalData : Global lithium demand to more than double by 2024, as electric vehicle battery production quadruples

08 Oct 2020
Global lithium demand to more than double by 2024, as electric vehicle battery production quadruples Posted in Mining

With the annual productionof electricvehicles (EVs) set togrow from 3.4 million in 2020 to12.7 million in 2024, and batteryproductiongrowing from 95.3GWh to410.5GWh over the same period, demandfor lithiumis expected torise from a forecasted 47.3kt in 2020 to117.4kt in 2024at a 25.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR), according toGlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Vinneth Bajaj, Senior Mining Analyst at GlobalData, comments: 'Lithiummetal productionis expected toreach 134.7kt versus 58.8kt in 2020. This follows a significant 18.2% decline in 2019 to78.2kt, resulting from sluggish globalEV sales and a steep fall in prices, which, in turn, encouraged reduced productionlevels.

'Lithiumproductionover the next four years will be mainly supported byoutput from existing Australian mines such asMount Cattlin and Pilgangoora. Other major mines include Mount Marion, Salar de Atacama and Salar del Hombre Muerto located in Australia, Chile and Argentina, respectively.'

Globaldemandfor lithiumwill be driven bygrowth in batterymanufacturing facilities, particularly in China - where lithium-ion batterymanufacturing capacity is expected toincrease from an estimated 388.2GWh in 2020 to575.3GWh in 2024.

Bajaj continues: 'According toGlobalData, nearly 12.7 million EVs are expected tobe produced across the globe in 2024, increasing from 3.4 million in 2020. China is determined toboost EV sales, targeting a 20% share of the new car sales by2025, versus just 5% in 2019. The country's decision tocut subsidies in a phased manner until 2022, rather thaneliminating it in 2020, is expected toprovide an essential boost tothe domestic market, aswell asthe overall globalEV market.'

On its BatteryDay, Tesla announced it is working towards achieving 100GWh of cell productioncapacity by2022 and up to3,000GWh by2030. This is far greater thanother manufacturers such asChina's BYD, which is expected toexpand its capacity to126GWh in 2024, versus 40GWh in 2019. Japan's Panasonic, a key supplier toTesla itself, is expected toincrease its capacity from 40GWh in 2019 to63GWh in 2021, while LG Chem will expand from 65.2GWh in 2019 to172.4GWh in 2024.

Bajaj adds: 'Tesla also announced a revolutionary 4680 cell design, the productionof which has already begun with 10GWh of annual capacity expected through 2021. It is expected tocompletely change the cost dynamics of EVs byreducing the overall cost of its long range and high performance batterycells.'