The head of container shipping company Hapag-Lloyd considers current forecasts predicting stagnation in the international shipping sector to be overly pessimistic.
Given ongoing global trade conflicts and the continued uncertainty in the Red Sea, making predictions is challenging, said CEO Rolf Habben Jansen during an online conference with customers on Wednesday. However, he currently anticipates a four percent increase in the market, acknowledging that growth could ultimately be as low as two percent. "There is certainly reason to believe that the second half of the year could be somewhat weaker," he said. "However, the industry has often been surprised by higher-than-expected transport volumes. That's why we remain cautiously optimistic for now."
Beyond fluctuating demand caused by shifts in U.S. tariff policy, a key factor for the industry is when passage through the Suez Canal will again be possible. Projections for industry stagnation are based on the assumption that transit through the Suez Canal could resume as early as July, Habben Jansen explained. He does not share this view. As things stand, Hapag-Lloyd does not consider passage through the canal a viable option in the near future, as lasting security would first need to be assured.
The Red Sea has seen attacks by Houthi rebels from Yemen, who have cited solidarity with Hamas in the Gaza conflict as the reason for their actions. Since then, international container shipping has avoided the area and the adjacent Suez Canal--the shortest maritime route between Europe and Asia. Rerouting ships around the southern tip of Africa has increased costs, but has also driven up freight rates to the benefit of shipping companies. More vessels are now required to transport goods over these longer distances. According to Habben Jansen, all available ships are currently in use to maintain supply chains. Once the Suez Canal reopens, capacity will be freed up and freight rates are expected to drop.
Trade conflicts, particularly those involving the U.S. and other countries, continue to create uncertainty, according to the Hapag-Lloyd chief. Bookings are highly dependent on tariff decisions, making it difficult to manage fluctuating demand. Recently, bookings have surged once again.
U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a tougher approach to tariff policy during his election campaign, prompting shipping company clients to rush goods into the U.S. as quickly as possible. After taking office, Trump imposed various tariffs, only to suspend them shortly after to initiate negotiations, with China being a particular focus. Currently, a 90-day reprieve is in place for several tariffs, set to expire on July 8. Hapag-Lloyd is Germany's largest container shipping company. As the world's fifth-largest carrier and a partner of industry giant Maersk, the company's developments and outlooks are seen as a barometer for the shipping industry and global trade.
(Reporting by Elke Ahlswede, edited by Philipp Krach. For inquiries, please contact our editorial teams at berlin.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for politics and economy) or frankfurt.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com (for companies and markets).)
