In concrete terms, Washington will reduce its tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while Beijing will cut its tariffs from 125% to 10% for an initial period of 90 days. This easing of tensions is eagerly awaited by the industry, which has been severely tested by the collapse of transpacific trade at the height of the trade war.

Will things get back to normal?

"It's good news that both sides are talking again and that rates are coming down from historic highs," said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, the main maritime entry point for Chinese imports into the United States. However, he stressed that 30% tariffs remain much higher than those in place before Donald Trump took office.

Companies such as MSC and Cosco had suspended some routes or reduced the size of their ships to cope with the drop in demand. Others, such as Hapag-Lloyd, had maintained their services while considering capacity adjustments.

With this respite from price increases, carriers are hoping for a rapid recovery in bookings, particularly on routes between China and the US coast. Hapag-Lloyd has already said that it could return to larger ships if demand picks up again.

A high-stakes period

May is a strategic period, as major US retailers such as Walmart, Target and The Home Depot usually place their orders for the holiday season at this time. Goods for Halloween, Thanksgiving and Christmas arrive in US ports between August and October.

But Gene Seroka remains cautious: "I'm not sure retailers will accept a 30% rate for their most important sales period." Some importers, such as Abt Electronics in Chicago, prefer to wait and sell off their stock purchased before the tariffs come into effect.

According to Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, shippers could nevertheless anticipate a further rate increase in August by speeding up their shipments in the coming weeks. With the average transit time on the transpacific route being around 22 days, the 90-day window could be enough to fuel a spike in demand, leading to higher freight rates.

The road to optimism

Drewry, which had lowered its global container traffic growth forecast to -1% for 2025 due to Trump's trade policies, now says it is ready to revise its figures upwards, provided there are no further incidents in the US-China negotiations.

Meanwhile, Maersk recently reduced its capacity on the China-US route by 20%, but could reverse this decision if demand picks up.

The shipping sector reacted positively on the stock market, with the Dow Jones Transportation Index gaining 7% on Monday. Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk shares rose 13% and 11% respectively, while China's Cosco gained 2%. This renewed optimism reflects an industry seeking stability after several months of turbulence.