CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
2020
December 10th, 2020
Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by HelloFresh SE (the "Company" and, together with its subsidiaries, the "Group"). All material contained in this document and information presented is for information purposes only and must not be relied upon for any purpose, and does not purport to be a full or complete description of the Company or the Group. This document does not, and is not intended to, constitute or form part of, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to purchase, subscribe for or otherwise acquire, any securities of the Company, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with or act as any inducement or recommendation to enter into any contract or commitment or investment decision or other transaction whatsoever. This document is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction. Persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.
No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is made by the Company or any other Group company as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or the opinions contained herein, for any purpose whatsoever. No responsibility, obligation or liability is or will be accepted by the Company, any other Group company or any of their officers, directors, employees, affiliates, agents or advisers in relation to any written or oral information provided in this document or in connection with the document. All information in this document is subject to verification, correction, completion, updating and change without notice. Neither the Company, nor any other Group company undertake any obligation to provide the recipient with access to any additional information or to update this document or any information or to correct any inaccuracies in any such information.
A significant portion of the information contained in this document, including market data and trend information, is based on estimates or expectations of the Company, and there can be no assurance that these estimates or expectations are or will prove to be accurate. Where any information and statistics are quoted from any external source, such information or statistics should not be interpreted as having been adopted or endorsed by the Company or any other person as being accurate. All statements in this document attributable to third party industry experts represent the Company's interpretation of data, research opinion or viewpoints published by such industry experts, and have not been reviewed by them. Each publication of such industry experts speaks as of its original publication date and not as of the date of this document.
This document contains forward-looking statements relating to the business, financial performance and results of the Company, the Group or the industry in which the Group operates. These statements may be identified by words such as "expectation", "belief', "estimate", "plan", "target" or "forecast" and similar expressions, or by their context. Forward-looking statements include statements regarding: strategies, outlook and growth prospects; future plans and potential for future growth; growth for products and services in new markets; industry trends; and the impact of regulatory initiatives. These statements are made on the basis of current knowledge and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. Various factors could cause actual future results, performance or events to differ materially from those described in these statements, and neither the Company nor any other person accepts any responsibility for the accuracy of the opinions expressed in this document or the underlying assumptions. No obligation is assumed to update any forward-looking statements.
This document includes certain financial measures not presented in accordance with IFRS, including, but not limited to, AEBITDA. These financial measures are not measures of financial performance in accordance with IFRS and may exclude items that are significant in understanding and assessing the Company's financial results. Therefore, these measures should not be considered in isolation or as an alternative to result for the period or other measures of profitability, liquidity or performance under IFRS. You should be aware that the Company's presentation of these measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies, which may be defined and calculated differently. See the appendix for a reconciliation of certain of these non-IFRS measures to the most directly comparable IFRS measure.
Agenda
- Our E-Commerce Membership Model
- Growth Levers
- Sustainability
- Financials & Midterm Outlook
- Q&A
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
3 |
Todays Speakers
Dominik | Ed | Thomas | Christian |
Richter | Boyes | Griesel | Gärtner |
CEO | CCO | CEO | CFO |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
4 |
OUR MISSION
AT CHANGE THE
WAY PEOPLE EAT
FOREVER
OUR VISION
THE WORLD'S
LEADING, FULLY
INTEGRATED FOOD SOLUTIONS GROUP
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
5 |
OUR MID-TERM
AMBITION
Grow to 10bn Revenue with attractive double digit AEBITDA margins
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020
Core Business Growth
Growth
Monetization
Investment
Increase penetration across our existing markets
CAGR
~15%
New Geographies and launching our US brands into International markets
Expand our different monetization strategies across all markets
CAGR
~5-7%
Launch and scale new and adjacent verticals
(both organic and via M&A)
1. Our E-Commerce Membership Model
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
7 |
We operate an e-commerce membership model with some SaaS-like features and distinct advantages over e-commerce peers
E-Commerce
SaaSMembership
Classic
Model
E-Commerce
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
8 |
While SaaS models typically have high revenue retention, ecommerce models benefit from lower customer acquisition cost and high re-engagement
SaaS | ||
Revenue Retention over time | ||
100% | Best-in- | |
class SaaS | ||
Average | ||
SaaS | ||
Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
- High CAC, long payback period
- Little to no re-engagement
- Mostly smaller TAM
E-Commerce, Marketplaces
Revenue Retention over time
100% | ||
Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
- Low CAC, quick payback period
- High probability of re-engagement
- Often large TAM
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Illustrative only | |||
9 |
While SaaS models typically have high revenue retention, ecommerce models benefit from lower customer acquisition cost and high re-engagement
SaaS | ||
Revenue Retention over time | ||
100% | Best-in- | |
class SaaS | ||
Average | ||
SaaS | ||
Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
- High CAC, long payback period
- Little to no re-engagement
- Mostly smaller TAM
E-Commerce, Marketplaces
Revenue Retention over time
Y2 | Y3 |
- Low CAC, quick payback period
- High probability of re-engagement
- Often large TAM
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Illustrative only | |||
10 |
By defaulting our members to a weekly cadence upon joining, HelloFresh sees significantly higher order rates in the first year vs ecommerce peers
1Y Order Rates
(US only, based on Credit Card Data)
+71%
+34%
Best in class E-Commerce*
vs
Best in class Food Delivery**
vs
Source: TXN Data; US only
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 * Wayfair, Zappos, Etsy, Chewy.com, Asos11 ** Doordash, Grubhub Seamless, Postmates
While SaaS models typically have high revenue retention, ecommerce models benefit from lower customer acquisition cost and high re-engagement
SaaS | ||
Revenue Retention over time | ||
100% | Best-in- | |
class SaaS | ||
Average | ||
SaaS | ||
Y1 | Y2 | Y3 |
- High CAC, long payback period
- Little to no re-engagement
E-Commerce, Marketplaces
Revenue Retention over time
100% |
Y1 |
- Low CAC, quick payback period
- High probability of re-engagement
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Illustrative only | |||
12 |
Also long-term order behavior is very strong compared to other major e-commerce players
Number of transaction (US only, based on credit card data) | ||||
Dec. 2018 indexed to 100% | ||||
HelloFresh | ||||
Peer Avg. | ||||
100%
75%
Dec. 2018 | Jan. 2020 | Oct. 2020 | ||||||||
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Source: TXN Data; US only | 13 |
* Wayfair, Zappos, Etsy, Chewy.com, Asos |
As well as comparing favorably to other e-commerce models, our long term revenue retention is very stable and improving over time
Net Revenue Retention by Cohort (US only)
Q4 2019 - Q3 2020
40%
Q4 2018 - Q3 2020
Q4 2017 - Q3 2020
20%
Q4 2016 - Q3 2020
Q4 | Q8 | Q12 | Q15 | |||||||||||
Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Source: TXN Data; US only | |||
14 | ||||
Our Business Model offers a high degree of flexibility, as a result our customers follow different usage patterns
Trialist
Time
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Illustrative only | |||
15 |
Our Business Model offers a high degree of flexibility, as a result our customers follow different usage patterns
Trialist
Seasonal
User
Time
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Illustrative only | |||
16 |
Our Business Model offers a high degree of flexibility, as a result our customers follow different usage patterns
Trialist
Seasonal
User
Occasional
User
Time
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Illustrative only | |||
17 |
Our Business Model offers a high degree of flexibility, as a result our customers follow different usage patterns
Trialist
Seasonal
User
Occasional
User
Frequent
User
Time
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Illustrative only | |||
18 |
Our vertically integrated supply chain and high share of own brand allows us to capture the entire profit pool across the value chain
Margin Share along the Value Chain | Long-Term AEBITDA |
margin potential | |
Grocery Retail | Producer | Brand Margin | Wholesale | Retail Margin | 5-8% |
Profit Pool | Margin | Margin | |||
Producer | ||
Profit Pool | Margin | |
HelloFresh Margin | ~ 15-20% |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Illustrative only | |||
19 |
Due to full vertical integration and our membership model, the HelloFresh business model is vastly superior to standard ecommerce models
Order Frequency
Demand
Predictability
Vertical Integration
Share of Own Brand
Potential AEBITDA margin at maturity
Working Capital
HelloFresh | Standard E-commerce Models | |
High | Medium | |
High | Medium | |
High | Low | |
>90% | <20% | |
15% -20% | 5% -10% | |
Negative | Positive | |
FCF Conversion | High | Low | ||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
20 |
2. Growth Levers
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
21 |
Our 3 Core Pillars of Growth and Profitability Remain
-
TAM PENETRATION
2 TAM EXPANSION
3 BETTER MONETIZATION OF OUR CUSTOMER BASE
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
22 |
Our 3 Core Pillars of Growth and Profitability Remain
-
TAM PENETRATION
2 TAM EXPANSION
3 BETTER MONETIZATION OF OUR CUSTOMER BASE
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
23 |
We are still tiny compared to the market opportunity we are serving
$3.3 trn
$4.3 bn
60%
Dinners
HFG 2020E | Total Food Market | |
Revenue1 | across 14 HFG Markets2 |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | 1. | Analyst Consensus for HFG Revenue (3568M€; FX Rate: EURUSD: 1.207; 02.12.2020) | ||
24 | ||||
2. | Citi Research (September, 2020) | |||
We initially focussed on the dinner opportunity which constitutes the largest part of consumers' food budget
Dinner | Lunch | Breakfast | |
~ | ~ | |||||||||
$ 2 Trn | ~ | $ 1 Trn | $ 0.3 Trn | |||||||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Split based on U.S. Bureau of | Labor Statistics research "Meal Appeal: Patterns Of Expenditures On Food Away From Home ", April 2020. | |
Source: Citi Research, Government Statistics, World Bank, Euromonitor (2019). *Euromonitor - Foodservice: includes cafés, full/limited-service restaurants, | & | 25 |
cafeterias/kiosks.
We target the massive "dinner-at-home" opportunity with an unmatched value proposition: high affordability and high convenience at the same time!
High
Affordability
Meal Kit Delivery
Grocery
Stores
Grocery Delivery
Low | High | |
convenience | convenience | |
Restaurant | ||
Restaurants | Food Delivery | |
Low | ||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Affordability | 26 |
Our current offering targets > 135m households, with penetration rates standing at low single digits
US | International | Assumptions | |||||||
TAM* | 77m | 60m | - | Top 60% of US households | |||||
- | Top 40% INTL households | ||||||||
Active Customers
Current Penetration
2.5m2.5m
3.2 %4.2 %
- Households who placed at least one order in the last quarter
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | * Total Addressable Markets in terms of customers | |||
27 | ||||
Online Food is years behind other e-commerce categories, providing us with a massive tailwind for future TAM penetration upside
E-Commerce Adoption (US)* | |||||||||||
Food & Beverage | |||||||||||
Consumer | |||||||||||
8.3% | |||||||||||
electronics | |||||||||||
> 50% | |||||||||||
3.9% | |||||||||||
Apparel1.5%
> 25%
2015 2020E 2025E
US Food E-commerce Adoption Rates projected to grow +100% in the next 5 years
Similar evolution expected in INTL markets
Growing in line with E-commerce adoption would be enough to reach CAGR targets
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | *Global X ETFs Research, Statista | 28 |
In addition to overall category growth, we also have a track record of expanding market share, even in our most competitive markets globally
US1UKCanada2+1pp | +7pp | +4pp |
HFG Meal Kit Market Share (%)3 | HFG Meal Kit Market Share (%)3 | HFG Meal Kit Market Share (%)3 |
Q1 20 | Q3 20 | Q1 20 | Q3 20 | Q1 20 | Q3 20 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | 1. HFG Share includes HelloFresh, GreenChef & EveryPlate | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2. HFG Share includes HelloFresh & ChefsPlate | HFG | Other competitors | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
29 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3. Source: Aggregated credit card data, internal analysis & company data | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Our Growth flywheel has allowed us to scale much more efficiently over time
Improving | ||||||
Lower cost | Product & | |||||
MORE | structure | Selection | ||||
DATA | ||||||
GROWTH
Better
Better | customer | ||||||||||||
Marketing | |||||||||||||
experience | |||||||||||||
leverage | |||||||||||||
Higher order | |||||||||||||
rates | |||||||||||||
STRONG BALANCE | ACCESS TO THE | ||||||||||||
SHEET | BEST TALENTS | ||||||||||||
MORE TECHNOLOGY
30
Continued menu expansion helps us to serve a broader range of taste, lifestyle, and dietary preferences
Menu | 6 | 9 | 15 | 28 | >100? | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Options | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Category | CLASSIC | + | FAMILY, | + | CALORIE | + | QUICK & | + | VEGAN, | ||||||||||||||||||||||
SEASONAL | GLUTEN FREE, | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Options | VEGGIE | SMART | EASY | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
BOXES | READY-TO-EAT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2025 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
31 |
Ongoing improvements in the quality of our service are beneficial to opening up new customer segments as well as serving existing customers better
Lead Time from 1st Order to Delivery*
- 2.6 days | Faster delivery times unlock additional customer segments |
-27%
Particularly more infrequent users of HelloFresh order more often as the time from order to delivery improves
Ambition:further speed up deliveries to our customers, especially for their 1st order and upon re-joining
Q1-2016Q1-2020
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Note: *Mature Markets only, | like-for-like comparison; Source: Company Data | |||
32 | |||||
Over time, our growth in household penetration benefits from a strong tailwind from reactivating lapsed customers
Reactivations in most mature markets* % Share of Total Conversions
50%
34% 40%
25%
11%
Reactivations already reached ~ 1/3 of Conversions in Mature Geos, pre-Covid
Reactivation share will continue to grow, driven by:
- Higher base of former customers
- Increase in market maturity
- Increased CRM sophistication
- Product and service improvements
2015 | 2018 | 2020 Q1 | 2025 |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Note: *Most Mature Markets: DE, GB, NL, AU; Source: Company Data | |||
33 | ||||
Investing in more choice for consumers and better service levels helped us lower CACs and improve Marketing payback periods
Marketing Payback Periods | Q2-19 |
(Cohort Contribution Profit over time) |
Q2-18
Q2-17
6M | 12M |
Break-Even Periods now firmly within 6 months (pre-pandemic!)
Continuous Improvement of CACs and Order Rates over time
Main Drivers: more attractive product offering, better service levels and higher share of reactivations
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Source: Company Data | |||
34 | ||||
There is a clear path to doubling our penetration levels in the mid-term
TAM Penetration Drivers | >2x |
(indicative only) |
2020 | New Customers | Reactivations | Service Level | Product | ||||
Penetration | Improvements | Improvements | ||||||
Mid-Term
Penetration
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
35 |
Our 3 Core Pillars of Growth and Profitability Remain
-
TAM PENETRATION
2 TAM EXPANSION
3 BETTER MONETIZATION OF OUR CUSTOMER BASE
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
36 |
OUR VISION
We want to become the
world's leading, fully
integrated Food Solutions Group
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
37 |
Our TAM is highly dynamic: over time, we have structurally expanded the number of households we can serve across the globe
Our Target Audience | +10% | 77 M |
US households
International households
Australia
60 M
49 M
35 M
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Illustrative only | |||
38 |
We have a successful track record of launching new geographies, thereby expanding our TAM significantly
2011 | 2015 | 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
More to come...
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
39 |
We score potential new markets across a number of dimensions to assess their relative attractiveness
#HOUSEHOLDS | How many relevant, addressable households has a certain market? |
INCOME LEVEL | How many households meet or exceed a certain income level? |
E-COMMERCE
What is the e-commerce adoption rate?
ADOPTION RATE
SUPPLY CHAIN | Can we build a sophisticated supply chain with the right partners? |
INFRASTRUCTURE | |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
40 |
We have a proven playbook to support the launch of new geographies, making it a very attractive risk-adjusted growth opportunity
TECH
PROCUREMENT | PRODUCT |
LOGISTICS | MARKETING |
LOCAL
TEAMTOOLS &
PRODUCTION | INFRASTRUCTURE |
Proven Playbook of
Experiences, Technology, Data and Relationships that we can leverage in every country for every brand
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
41 |
In the US, we are strategically set-up to capture 60% of households - serving meals from value offerings to premium & specialty diets
HelloFresh Group
Meal Kits | Prepared Meals | |||||||||||
"Value" | "Affordable Premium" | "Specialty" | "Fully Prepared" | |||
(classic, veggie, family, etc.) | (vegan, gluten-free, etc.) | |||||
$ 5 | Price / serving | $$$ 12 |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
42 |
Our value tier reached a $200m revenue run-rate 2.5 years after launch, making it one of the fastest growing US e-commerce brands
Net Revenue
>200m USD
annual run rate
Q2-18Q3-18Q4-18Q1-19Q2-19Q3-19Q4-19Q1-20Q2-20Q3-20
EveryPlate reaches an additional 20%-30% of HHs at an attractive $5 per meal price point
Little to no cannibalization of HelloFresh brand
Our mid-termambition:EveryPlate should be on par in customer numbers with HelloFresh
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
43 |
A key dimension of our TAM expansion is Convenience - our investments in reducing cooking time have given us mass market appeal
Traditional | Original | Convenient | Rapid | Fully Prepared | ||||
Cooking | Meal Kit | Meal Kit | Meal Kit | Meal | ||||
Time to table
>1hr | 30-40 mins | 20-25 mins | 10-15 mins | 2-5 mins | ||
Cooking enthusiasts | Convenience seekers | |||||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Illustrative only | |||
44 |
HelloFresh acquires Factor75, Inc., a US-basedDirect-to-ConsumerReady-to-Eat business*
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Note: *The transaction has not been closed yet. The closing of the transaction is subject to customary conditions precedent, including inter alia the expiry of | the | 45 |
waiting period under the U.S. Hart-Scott-Rodino Antitrust Improvements Act, and is currently expected to occur within the next few months. |
Factor over-indexes for 1 P households, male demographics and for the lunch opportunity, allowing us to go after a distinct new customer segment
Gender | HH Size | Share of meals* | -12 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 pp | HF | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
+22 pp | Factor | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Difference in | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Gender Split | Share of Singles | +49 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HF FactorHF FactorLunchDinner
Access a new customer segment | Cross-sell offerings to existing HelloFresh | |
customers | ||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Note: All HF data is US-only; * | Question: "Which meal occasions are you using [Factor/HF] for? (select all that apply)", Source: Company Data, Customer Survey | 46 |
So far in 2020 Factor has grown even faster than HelloFresh US, and has significant headroom to further expand
Net Revenue
Named in Inc. magazine's list of America's fastest growing private companies**
+115% | * |
Ready-to-Eat & Factor Highlights
D2C RTE is a nascent category: c. 5x smaller
~ 100m USthan meal kits and several years earlier in the
adoption curve
Factor stands out with exceptional product quality & growth rates
Platform to scale: production capacity of $500mm ARR to support continued strong growth over coming years
2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E | |||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Note: * CAGR 2017-2020E; | **MarketScreener; Source: Company Data | |||
47 | |||||
Not only does our multi-brand strategy expand TAM, it will also provide synergies across the value chain to further grow overall margin levels
Synergies
- More tailored brands
- Use of shared media impressions
- Retargeting customers with more than one brand
Customer
acquisitionCustomer Retention
Key drivers of
Growth &
Profitability
Synergies
- More tailored product to customer needs
- Reactivate customers between brands
- Shared learnings on product development
Contribution Margin
Synergies
- Fulfilment center utilization
- Leverage scale in supplier networks
- Ingredient yield optimization
HelloFresh Group Brand Portfolio
Introducing these new brands to our International segment offers a huge growth opportunity
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
49 |
Our 3 Core Pillars of Growth and Profitability Remain
-
TAM PENETRATION
2 TAM EXPANSION
3 BETTER MONETIZATION OF OUR CUSTOMER BASE
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
50 |
We have identified a large opportunity to capture a bigger share of our customers' monthly food budget
Current Share capture (illustrative only)
HelloFresh's focus today
Dinner50%
Lunch7%
Snacks2%
Breakfast1%
Appetizers, Special
Occasions, Ready
Meals, Desserts
Sandwiches, Soups, Salads
Fruits, Nuts, Chocolate Bars
Cereal, Smoothies, Dairy
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Illustrative only | |||
51 |
The revenue share from add-on products has increased gradually as a result of our assortment expansion
Revenue Share from Add-on Products (BE+NL) | GROUP AMBITION |
2018 | 2019 | 2020E | 2025E | |
15-20% | ||||
3% | 4% | 5% | ||
Assortment* | 4 | 10 | 23 | 500 - 2,000 |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Note: * Average per year; Source: Company Data | |||
52 | ||||
HelloFresh Market offers our customers a range of premium add-ons from breakfast options, snacks, lunch, appetizers & sides
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020
3. Sustainability
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
54 |
OUR AMBITION
is to provide the most
sustainable food solution at scale to our customers across all of the markets we are operating in.
While our external ESG ratings have improved recently we are still not in the top group
2019
Governance
ISS | MSCI | Sustainalytics |
ESG Risk Rating Distribution
8A
25.9
Environment
Social
6
6
NEGL LOW MED HIGH SEVERE
ESG Industry Rating Distribution
23% | 25% | 25% | ||||||||
Today | Percentile (1st lowest risk) | |||||||||
7 | 13% | |||||||||
Governance | 9% | |||||||||
5% | 55th | |||||||||
Industry | ||||||||||
Environment | 4 | 0 % | ||||||||
Social | 5 | CCC | B | BB | BBB | A | AA | AAA | Sub-Industry | 49th |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
56 |
There is a disconnect between our external ESG ratings and our actual performance - which we will work towards closing
Reality based | Perception |
on internal | based on |
data | disclosure |
We need to work on our disclosure and reporting in order to improve our sustainability ratings with 3rd party rating
agencies and to become eligible for ESG focused funds.
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
57 |
What does sustainability mean for us at HelloFresh?
1 | Leverage our Direct to Consumer supply chain to provide fresh food to our customers |
in the most sustainable fashion, while ensuring safety, quality, and freshness | |
- Promote the wellbeing of our customers, employees and suppliers
3 | Actively manage and mitigate the risks that could affect HelloFresh's business |
performance and sustainability efforts | |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
58 |
How do we approach sustainability related topics?
Avoid
Reduce
Replace
Offset
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
59 |
On the environmental side we have identified three core pillars which are most critical for our business model
FOOD WASTE | CARBON EMISSIONS | PACKAGING | |||||||||
& ENERGY | |||||||||||
Grams of food waste per | C02 emissions per € | Grams of paper and | |||||||||
€ revenue | revenue | plastic packaging per | |||||||||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
60 |
On the environmental side we have identified three core pillars which are most critical for our business model
FOOD WASTE
Grams of food waste per
€ revenue
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||||||||
61 |
If Food Waste would be a country, it would be the 3rd largest CO2 emitting country in the world
FOOD WASTE
1/3 of food produced for human consumption | |||||||||||||||||||||||
never reaches the consumer's table | |||||||||||||||||||||||
10.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Food production accounts for 26% of global | |||||||||||||||||||||||
6.1 | greenhouse gas emissions1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Gtonnes | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
C02 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
2.8 | Food waste by itself is responsible for ~8% of | ||||||||||||||||||||||
GHG emissions2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
USA | Food | India | |||||||||||||||||||||
China | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Wastage |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | 1. | Hannah Ritchie, Our | World in Data. 2020, March 18th . Food waste is responsible for 6% of global greenhouse gas emissions. | |
62 | ||||
2. | Kelly Oakes, BBC. 2020, Feb. 26th. How cutting your food waste can help the climate |
Our supply chain is significantly more sustainable than comparable grocery supply chains
Traditional supply chain | HelloFresh supply chain |
FOOD WASTE
A vertically integrated
supply chain
Day 1: Producer
Day 2: Wholesaler
2% waste
Day 4: Warehouse
3% waste
Day 6: Store
11% waste
Day 10: Home
23% waste
Day 1: Producer
Day 2
Day 3: Home
- STARTING WITH CONSUMER
- FASTER AND FRESHER
- NO FOOD WASTE
Better for the
Environment
Better for Customers
More Margin for
HelloFresh
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | ||||
Source: Company information; | United States Department of Agriculture; Canaccord Genuity estimates | |||
63 | ||||
Note: 5% "Farm to Retail" waste | data split to wholesale and warehouse. | |||
We reduce Food Waste at both, the supply chain and at the consumer level
FOOD WASTE
-21% | ||||
-69% | ||||
1.75g
0.54g4
Supermarkets2 | HelloFresh | Supermarkets | HelloFresh | ||||||
1. | In the first 9 months of 2020 | ||||||||
2. | Based on published figures from the top 12 leading traditional retailers worldwide | ||||||||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | 3. | Based on study conducted across 4 geographies in cooperation with the Wuppertal Institute; including 1000 households and comparing food waste | |||||||
when shopping is done in the supermarket vs. Hellofresh | 64 |
4. Year to date data collection is not 100% complete due to complications caused by the Covid-19 pandemic
YTD Food Waste per € revenue has decreased vs the 2019 baseline despite higher levels of operational uncertainty
Food Waste per € revenue
FOOD WASTE
-10% | ||||||||
Higher uncertainty due to Covid-19, resulting in | ||||||||
0.6g | ||||||||
0.54g | lower accuracy of our forecasting algorithms | |||||||
Strategic buffers to avoid potential stock out
Further efficiency gains through shorter lead times
20192020*
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | ||||
Source: Company Information | ||||
65 | ||||
*Year to date data collection is | not 100% complete due to complications caused by the Covid-19 pandemic | |||
On the environmental side we have identified three core pillars which are most critical for our business model
CARBON EMISSIONS
& ENERGY
C02 emissions per €
revenue
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||||||||
66 |
What are our CO2 Emissions?
18 HelloFresh Production Facilities
- Energy and Gas consumption
- Utility bills billed directly to HelloFresh or indirectly (hidden in the total rent price)
52.33 million Deliveries*
- Gasoline consumption & CO2 emissions
- On a per unit of weight delivered by carrier (provided by local logistics teams)
Corporate travel
& 10 Offices Globally
- Flights/Trains/Busses/Rent al Cars: n° of trips and their distances or financial costs
- Based on data from KDS, Comtravo, Uber, Oracle, etc.
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | *First 9 Months of 2020 |
67
Reducing CO2 in our facilities: In comparison to food retailers, we do not have to heat, light and cool thousands of stores.
Scope 2 C02 Emissions per € revenue
-84%
23.
3.7g
Supermarkets1HelloFresh2
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | 1. Based on published figures | from the top 12 leading traditional retailers worldwide |
2. Source: Company Information |
CARBON EMISSIONS
& ENERGY
68
CARBON EMISSIONS
Our per box CO2 emissions have decreased 47% YTD compared & ENERGY to our 2019 baseline driven by higher capacity utilization
Scope 2 CO2 Emissions per € revenue
-47% | Higher capacity utilization has a positive | |
impact on per box CO2 emissions |
7.
Increased use of Green Energy across markets
3.7g
Not included: higher route density during delivery also has a positive effect on per box emissions
20192020
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Source: Company Information | ||||
69 | |||||
We Are the 1st Global Carbon-Neutral Meal Kit Company
CARBON EMISSIONS
& ENERGY
Step 1
Avoid Emissions where possible
Step 2
Implement
renewable energy
in operations &
delivery
Step 3
Emissions
0%
We offset 100% of our direct carbon emissions from…
➔ Internal operations and offices
➔ Emissions from corporate travel
➔ Delivery to customers
Offset unavoidable
emissions
Emission
Pre 2020 | 2020 onwards |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
70 |
On the environmental side we have identified three core pillars which are most critical for our business model
PACKAGING
Grams of paper and plastic packaging per
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||||||||
71 |
We minimize Packaging Waste through our direct supply chain and by constantly researching how to make our packaging more sustainable
From our Packaging Test Labs
Water-filled ice packs
In use across | ||||||
Eliminate ice pack | all INTL | |||||
markets* | ||||||
transit microplastics in | ||||||
gel filling | ||||||
2019 | 2020 | |||||
Recycled paper cooler pouch
Reduces in-box plastic by ~50%
2019 | 2020 | |
PACKAGING
Ambition
Roll-out across
all INTL
markets
2021
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | *Exception: | Due to long-haul shipping CA uses gel-based ice packs in certain occasions | |||
72 | |||||
Overview of ...
PACKAGING
EcoLean dairy pouch | Pastas, grains & herbs | Apeel |
NEW | WIP | TRIAL |
Plastic reduction by 70% | Move to paper packaging | Eliminate need for packaging | |||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
73 |
Case Study DACH: Over time we have developed one of the most sustainable packaging solutions for our customers
2019 | 2020 |
13%
26%
68%
PACKAGING
81%
➔ Introduction of paper based cool pouches,➔ Introduction of EcoLean
reduction of inbox plastic by ~50% | ➔ Moving to paper based packaging on dry goods |
➔ Started tests with Apeel |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Paper | Plastic | Other | |||||||||
74 | ||||||||||||
Despite operational challenges due to Covid-19 we are very proud of our impact and our ecological footprint
Our Highlights So Far
Significant reduction in food waste vs. traditional food retailers
Substantially lower C02 emissions vs. traditional food retailers
Massive push for electrifying our delivery fleet in the BENELUX
First global carbon-neutralmeal-kit company
Significant food donations to charities
Our
sustainability commitments for the future
- Achieve ISO-50001 certification
- Certification for energy efficiency management
- Materiality Assessment
- Improve compliance with sustainability reporting
- Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
- Identify areas of improvement or risk in the life-cycle
- Supply Chain Risk Mitigation
- Run extensive assessment of HF supply chain
- Plastic Bank
- 3-yearsinvestment to launch 3 recycling sites
- Energy Strategy
- Strong focus on solar panel installation & green energy
4. Financials and mid-term outlook
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
77 |
We have a track record of consistently best-in-class growth rates since inception
Revenue over time (€)
>100%**
1.81b
+56%* 1.28b
905m
597m
+410%*305m
2m 14m 70m
2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020E** |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Note: * CAGR; 2012 to 2015; 2015 to 2019; | 78 |
** 2020E is indicative only and based on the Company's CC 2020FY growth Guidance |
One of the few ecommerce companies firmly profitable andFCF positive
AEBITDA (€) | ||
12.5 % | ||
311 m | ||
2.6 % | ||
(4.3)% | 47 m | |
(55 m) | ||
2018 | 2019 | 9-month |
2020 |
Free Cash Flow (€) | 13.7 % | |
361 m | ||
(5.8)% | (0.7) % | |
(74 m) | (12 m) | |
2018 | 2019 | 9-month |
2020 |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Source: Company Data | ||||
79 | |||||
Our midterm ambition is to grow to 10bn revenue while maintaining our attractive margin and FCF profile
REVENUE | €10 BN |
AEBITDA MARGIN | 10-15% |
FCF Conversion | Best-in-class |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
80 |
The Covid situation has expanded our 2020 AEBITDA margin by c. 3% points
Q4 2019* | Jan - Sep 2020* | |
Revenue Growth | 39% (in CC) | 105% (in CC) |
Contribution Margin | 29.1% | 27.1% |
Marketing Spend | (17.9%) | (12.3%) |
G&A** | (7.8%) | (3.8%) |
AEBIT | 5.3% | 11.3% |
AEBITDA | 7.5% | 12.5% |
Key Drivers
More than doubling due to customer growth, AOV and order rate growth
c. 2% points compression from higher fulfilment costs
- 5-6%points below trend due to low CACs & reduction in marketing spend
c. 3-4% points scale leverage
c. 5% points expansion, of which c. 3% directly due to Covid
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Note: * All excl. SBC | ||||
81 | |||||
**including other income and | expenses |
Retention has stabilised above previous year's level, also when things returned towards normality during the summer
Lifetime in # orders of 20-week-old cohorts (by starter week)
The Netherlands | Australia |
+> 20%
+Mid-teens%
W14 | W24 | W14 | W24 | |||
- Both of these countries were relatively far back to normalcy during the summer
- Each starter cohort continues to trend at higher retention/ lifetime value than previous years' cohorts, including cohorts which started during the more "normal" summer month of 2020
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | Source: Company Data | ||||
82 | |||||
In 2021 we expect continued robust growth, combined with normalization of contribution margin and marketing expenses
Jan - Sep 2020* | 2021E | |||
Revenue Growth | 105% (in CC) | 20-25%(in CC) | ||
Contribution Margin | 27.1% | 28 | - 29% | |
Marketing Spend | (12.3%) | (15 | - 17%) | |
G&A** | (3.8%) | ~(4%) | ||
AEBIT | 11.3% | 7-10% | ||
AEBITDA | 12.5% | 9-12% | ||
Key Drivers
Continued customer growth;
c. 3% impact of Factor acquisition
Phase out of Covid effects; impact of new FCs ramp-up & new brands/ geos
Continued market penetration, CACs back towards pre-Covid levels
Note: * All excl. SBC | ||
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | **including other income and expenses | 83 |
This is a first indicative outlook for 2021; it does not represent formal guidance, which the Company will only provide concurrently with the |
publication of its FY2020 financial statements on 2 March, 2021, in line with past practice.
2021 revenue growth is expected to be driven by customer growth; normalization effects in AOV and Average Order Rate are largely offset
Active
Customers
Q3
2020
5m
Indicative expectations for FY 2021
- De-bottleneckedcapacity allowing more forceful customer acquisition
- Significant reactivation opportunity
- Ramp-upof new geographies and brands (incl. Factor)
Average
Order Value
Average
Order Rate
€49.7
3.9
➔
~ ➔
➔
~ ➔
➔
Increasing contribution from add-ons
Higher impact of price incentives
Roll-out of EveryPlate in Intl. markets
Seasonality during summer similar to pre-Covid periods Some normalization of order rate in H2
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
84 |
Additional indicative 2021 considerations
Effective Tax Rate*
Comment
➔ Remaining NOLs in majority of key markets used by 2021 (and |
partly capitalized in 2020) |
Tax
c. 27 - 28%
➔ Effective tax rate thereafter approaching blended long-term |
Group tax rate of c. 29% |
➔ Continued ramp-up of multiple FCs across US and Intl |
Capex
2021 Capex
➔ Selective capacity expansion within existing FCs |
c. €130 - 150m
➔ Further automation investments |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | *Note: Based on current corporate income tax rates in HFG's markets; i.e. does not include any potential impact of tax rate increases | |||
85 | ||||
Our 2021 Capex ensures our infrastructure and capabilities can meet our mid-term ambitions
Capacity Plans: Theoretical max. production volume
US | Intl. |
+ ~100%
+ ~100%
- Theoretical production capacity to double over c. 18 months
- Relatively linear increase over that period
- In addition
- Further build out of automation capabilities
- We continue to compound our "unfair" advantage in tech, data science and growth marketing
Q3 2020 | Q1 2022 | Q3 2020 | Q1 2022 |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
86 |
OUR MID-TERM
AMBITION
Grow to 10bn Revenue with attractive double digit AEBITDA margins
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020
Core Business Growth
Growth
Monetization
Investment
Increase TAM penetration across our existing markets
CAGR
~15%
New Geographies and launching our US brands into International markets
Expand our different monetization strategies across all markets
CAGR
~5-7%
Launch and scale new and adjacent verticals
(both organic and via M&A)
5. Q&A
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
88 |
We are happy to take your questions
Please raise your questions via the Q&A section
Dominik | Ed | Thomas | Christian |
Richter | Boyes | Griesel | Gärtner |
CEO | CCO | CEO | CFO |
CAPITAL MARKETS DAY DEC 2020 | |||
89 |
Thank you!
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HelloFresh SE published this content on 10 December 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 10 December 2020 16:32:00 UTC