Honeywell Forecasts Business Jet Usage Will Recover to 2019 Levels by the Second Half of 2021.
'Business jet usage is expected to rebound to 80% to 85% of 2019 levels in the 4th quarter of 2020 and fully rebound by the middle of 2021, indicating demand for business jet travel is returning after the global pandemic caused a slowdown in the industry earlier this year,' said
Key findings in the 2020 Honeywell Global Business Aviation Outlook include:
Five-year purchase plans for new business jets are down less than one percentage point compared with last year's survey.
Among those purchase plans of new business jets over the next five years, 30% are expected to occur in the next two years. This is 5 percentage points lower than last year's survey, due mainly to near-term uncertainty.
Business jet deliveries in 2021 are expected to be up 13% from a COVID-impacted 2020.
Operators plan to make new jet purchases equivalent to about 16% of their fleets over the next five years as replacements or additions to their current fleet, in line with 2019 survey results.
Operators continue to focus on larger-cabin aircraft classes, from large cabin through ultralong- range aircraft, which are expected to account for more than 70% of all expenditures of new business jets in the next five years.
The longer-range forecast through 2030 projects a 4% to 5% average annual growth rate of deliveries in line with expected worldwide economic recovery. This figure is higher than in 2019 due in part to COVID-related declines in 2020.
Purchase plans for used jets show a moderate decline in this year's survey. Operators worldwide indicated that 25% of their fleet is expected to be replaced or expanded by used jets over the next five years, down 6 percentage points compared with survey results from 2019.
Effects of COVID-19 on the industry:
4 of 5 operators in the survey said their buying plans have not been affected by COVID-19. Most of the operators who indicated their buying plans have been affected say they now plan to hold onto their current aircraft longer.
82% of respondents in
Survey respondents did not signal sales of late-model aircraft due to COVID-19. Specifically, only 10% of all respondents in the survey are planning to sell one or more aircraft without replacement in the next five years compared with 8% in last year's survey.
Survey responses do not support the hypothesis that a decline in commercial travel has led to an increase in purchases of business jets. More than 95% of operators expect no change to fleet size due to a decrease in commercial travel.
Breakdown by Region
New jet purchase plans remain unchanged in
About 32% of operators responding to the survey plan to schedule their new purchases within the first two years of the five-year horizon. This is 4 percentage points lower than in last year's survey.
Purchase plans for used jets are lower, down 8 percentage points when compared with last year's survey but back to historical levels as last year saw a five-year high.
An estimated 64% of worldwide demand for new jets will come from North American operators over the next five years, up 4 percentage points compared with last year's survey.
About 24% of operators plan to schedule their new purchases within the next two years, down 6 percentage points and below the worldwide average of 30%.
In
About 19% of this region's projected purchases are planned between 2020 and 2022, lower than the worldwide average of 30%.
Operators in
Based on the expressed level of purchase plans,
About 30% of respondents in
16% of respondents said they will replace or add to their fleet with a new jet purchase, up from 12% last year
Respondents plan to schedule more new business jet purchases within the first year of the survey compared with 2019. About 26% of operators in this year's survey plan to purchase new business jets within the next year, up from 20% in last year's survey
The share of projected five-year global demand attributed to the
Used Jets
Plans to acquire used jets in the next five years dropped by about 6 percentage points from last year's survey. Twenty-five percent of used business jets will trade hands over the next five years, compared with a five-year projection of 31% in 2019.
Making an Impact on Business Decisions
The Global Business Aviation Outlook reflects current operator concerns and also identifies longer-cycle trends that Honeywell uses in its own product decision process. The survey has helped identify opportunities for investments in flight-efficiency upgrades, expanded propulsion offerings, innovative safety products, services, upgrades, and enhanced aircraft connectivity offerings. The survey also informs Honeywell's business pursuit strategy and helps position the company consistently on high-value platforms in growth sectors.
Methodology
Honeywell's forecast methodology is based on multiple sources, including, but not limited to, macroeconomic analyses, original equipment manufacturers' production and development plans shared with the company, and expert deliberations from aerospace industry leaders. Honeywell also utilizes information gathered from interviews conducted during the forecasting cycle with over 1,050 nonfractional business jet operators worldwide. The survey sample is representative of the entire industry in terms of geography, operation and fleet composition. This comprehensive approach provides Honeywell with unique insights into operator sentiments, preferences and concerns, and provides considerable insight into product development needs and opportunities.
About Honeywell
Honeywell (www.honeywell.com) is a Fortune 100 technology company that delivers industry specific solutions that include aerospace products and services; control technologies for buildings and industry; and performance materials globally. Our technologies help everything from aircraft, buildings, manufacturing plants, supply chains, and workers become more connected to make our world smarter, safer, and more sustainable. For more news and information on Honeywell, please visit www.honeywell.com/newsroom.
This release contains certain statements that may be deemed 'forward-looking statements' within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, that address activities, events or developments that we or our management intends, expects, projects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements. Such statements are based upon certain assumptions and assessments made by our management in light of their experience and their perception of historical trends, current economic and industry conditions, expected future developments and other factors they believe to be appropriate. The forward-looking statements included in this release are also subject to a number of material risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to economic, competitive, governmental, and technological factors affecting our operations, markets, products, services and prices. Such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and actual results, developments and business decisions may differ from those envisaged by such forward-looking statements. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our Form 10-K and other filings with the
(C) 2020 Electronic News Publishing, source