Factoring in the revised commercialisation plans
TARGET CHANGE
CHANGE IN EPS
2021 : € (0.02) vs (0.03) ns
2022 : € (0.30) vs (0.40) ns

Given the delayed equipment sales and associated recurring sales stream, coupled with higher R&D expenses, our assumption of medium-term losses has been maintained.


CHANGE IN NAV
€ 16.1 vs 18.5 -13.0%

While the multiples for the respective divisions remain unchanged, the NAV downgrade is largely a function of commercialisation delays. Although the NAV remains the most-attractive metric reflecting the firm’s long-term potential, assuming that business plans are gradually back on track.


CHANGE IN DCF
€ 8.23 vs 9.77 -15.7%

Factoring in the medium-term business challenges, the DCF resets lower. This metric’s higher sensitivity (vis-à-vis NAV) is also due to cash flows in the medium term. Hence, the plans hinge on easy access to capital markets, at least while reasonable-to-healthy earnings/cash flows haven’t been restored. Nevertheless, the healthy out-year growth estimates have been maintained, given the focus on the market’s potential and Ikonisys’ valued differentiation.