Conversely, other big names in the sector are more cautious. Hyatt Hotels and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts have revised their RevPar forecasts downward due to pressures in the leisure segment. Hilton is singing the same tune, now anticipating limited growth of between 0 and 2%, down from 2 to 3% previously.

Marriott's results, due next week, will be closely watched. With 80% of its revenue generated in the United States, compared with 50% for Intercontinental, the US giant will provide valuable insight into the dynamics of the North American market.

What they all have in common is that they generate at least 75% of their revenue in the United States.

French company Accor, on the other hand, is also an exception. The group continues to benefit from its geographical diversification and its move upmarket. The group recorded one of the best RevPar figures for the quarter, up 5%, driven by the luxury and lifestyle segments (+8.3%).

Pressure on construction costs

Michael Bellisario, an analyst at Baird, warns of the impact of tariffs on hotel projects. Already low, returns on investment are expected to suffer further from an estimated 5-10% increase in construction costs.

A resilient model, but not foolproof

Intercontinental slightly exceeded expectations with adjusted earnings per share of $1.72, compared with $1.70 expected and $1.48 a year earlier. The group opened 14,600 rooms during the quarter, more than double last year's figure. Its network now comprises 334,000 rooms in 2,265 hotels.

Regional analysis

  • Americas: RevPar up 3.5%. While leisure travel slowed (+2%), group bookings supported growth (+6%). However, caution is advised: over the last eight weeks, RevPar has stagnated (+0%), according to Jefferies.

  • EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa, Asia): This region, which generates a third of revenue, posted a 5% increase in RevPar. The group has opened 30 hotels there, six times more than last year. The domestic market, Great Britain, is lagging behind with stagnation, while the Middle East (+6.2%) and Asia-Pacific (+6.8%) are performing well.

  • China: Despite a low contribution to revenue, RevPar fell by 3.5%. The group remains ambitious in this region, with 8,500 new rooms under development, more than any other region.

Outlook: Focus on growth

Like Accor, Intercontinental is adopting an asset-light model based on franchising rather than building its own properties, which limits its exposure to customs duties.

The group reaffirms its confidence in its earnings forecasts and expects an increase in net earnings per share, supported by:

  • a 2.1% increase in RevPar,

  • 3.7% growth in the hotel portfolio,

  • and an improvement in margins on royalty income of 1 to 1.5%.