Oddo BHF confirms its 'neutral' rating on Kering shares, with a price target lowered from 423 to 412 euros.

Yesterday, the luxury goods group published sales for 2023 of 19,566 ME, down 2% organically, and EBIT of 4,746 ME, representing a margin of 24.3% (vs. 27.5% for 2022).

We were expecting sales of 19,416 ME and 4,843 ME respectively (margin at 24.9%)", recalls Oddo BHF, which points to Q4 sales that were "lacklustre but under control", at -4% cc.

The analyst indicates that he has adjusted his forecast for group organic growth slightly downwards, from 3.8% to 3.2% for 2024.

For 2025, our group sales forecast reflects organic growth of 6.8% (unchanged), with EBIT margin rising to 23.4% (vs. 25.2% previously).

The broker reports that Kering expects EBIT to fall in 2024 in view of the efforts undertaken to support and relaunch the brands, particularly Gucci, which Oddo BHF considers to be "still in transition".

Oddo BHF thus evokes a significant adjustment of EBIT forecasts to -8% for 2024 and -7% for 2025.

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