KNAUS TABBERT AG 
Weak Q1 22 as expected; the demand-backed confidence was reiterated
EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES
Knaus Tabbert released Q1 21 results that were affected by supply-chain constraints as expected. The wording of the guidance was slightly amended but plans for FY22 were confirmed. A quantitative guidance should be issued with the H1 22 publication. The gradual increase in multisourcing will be key to rebuilding margins as the production capacities are ready and orderbook filled for the rest of the year (average unit price +24% yoy).
FACT
- Order intake: 5,921 units (-17% yoy)
- Order backlog: 30,987 units for €1,274m (Q1 21: 9,029 units for €307m)
- Revenues: €222m (-7% yoy)
- Adjusted EBITDA: €16m or 7.3% of revenues (2020: 11.8%)
- OCF: €27.2m (2020: €26.4m)
Knaus Tabbert expects significant revenue growth topped by a planned 6-8% price increase. Margins are guided to improve “moderately” (previously: “significantly”), in line revenue growth, and resulting from economies of scale.
ANALYSIS
Knaus Tabbert reported Q1 22 results close to expectations, i.e. strongly affected by supply-chain challenges. Sales were down by 7% yoy due to an unfavourable product mix since the number of units delivered grew by 2% yoy. The reallocation of production capacities due to the lack of chassis for motorhomes led to a surge in the production of lower-margin caravans compared to motorised vehicles (caravans accounted 72% of total units delivered in Q1 22 vs 50% in Q1 21). As a result, the adjusted EBITDA margin was dragged down to 7.3%, further pressured by some headcount build-up to prepare for the increase in production capacities.
The order backlog remained close to its record levels with order intake down by 17% yoy on high comps. Nevertheless, with 31k units in the backlog, the group has fully-loaded capacities until the end of FY22, at least. Note as well that the average price per vehicle in the backlog keeps increasing (+24% yoy due to the higher proportion of motorised vehicles; +2% qoq) driven by an increasing share of (higher margin) motorised vehicles. However, the multi-sourcing strategy is ready do help mitigate the chassis supply issues as the share of MAN and Mercedes chassis are ramping up. Management confirmed that an agreement with Ford will also lead to a “couple of hundreds” of deliveries during H2 22 (vehicle not yet presented) before a ramp-up in FY23. Talks with a fifth supplier also seem to be on track but is unlikely to go to the market this year.
The only drawback was on the FY22 outlook as the company tweaked its wording on profitability from “to improve significantly in line with the targeted revenue growth” to “to improve moderately in line with the targeted revenue growth”. According to management, this is to account for more cautiousness within its undisclosed expected EBITDA range. Yet the confidence remains on the company’s ability to pass on prices to dealers. Note that the 6-8% pricing effect, guided for FY22, could be helped by price renegotiations of some orders having been placed several quarters ago in the backlog. Additional pricing actions could be implemented with the start of the new model year orders during H2 but will impact the P&L next fiscal year due to the extended backlog.
IMPACT
In all, with the Q1 22 weak figures in line with our expectations, we will be slightly trimming our EBITDA expectation to factor in the increased management’s cautiousness. In addition, we will be rebalancing our capex forecasts for the next three years. Indeed, management confirmed that the investment plan was more front-end loaded than our estimates, with especially around €100m planned for FY22. Nevertheless, the overall cash outlays will remain unchanged.
