Fitch Ratings has affirmed 13 classes of Citigroup Commercial Mortgage Trust series 2015-GC29 commercial mortgage pass-through certificates.

The Rating Outlooks for two classes have been revised to Stable from Negative.

RATING ACTIONS

Entity / Debt

Rating

Prior

CGCMT 2015-GC29

A-3 17323VAY1

LT

AAAsf

Affirmed

AAAsf

A-4 17323VAZ8

LT

AAAsf

Affirmed

AAAsf

A-AB 17323VBB0

LT

AAAsf

Affirmed

AAAsf

A-S 17323VBC8

LT

AAAsf

Affirmed

AAAsf

B 17323VBD6

LT

AA-sf

Affirmed

AA-sf

C 17323VBE4

LT

A-sf

Affirmed

A-sf

D 17323VAA3

LT

BBB-sf

Affirmed

BBB-sf

E 17323VAC9

LT

BBsf

Affirmed

BBsf

F 17323VAE5

LT

B-sf

Affirmed

B-sf

Page

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VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Improved Loss Expectations: Overall performance and base case loss expectations for the pool have improved since the last rating action. The Rating Outlook revisions to Stable reflect lower expected base case losses. Performance on properties impacted by the pandemic has stabilized, including 170 Broadway. The loan has become current and is transferring back to the master servicer. One hotel loan, Crowne Plaza Bloomington (1.4%), was in special servicing at the prior review paid in full.

Fitch's current ratings reflect a base case loss of 5.1%. There are 11 Fitch Loans of Concern (FLOCs; 21% of pool) including the specially serviced loan, 170 Broadway (5.4%). These loans were flagged due to high vacancy, low debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), upcoming rollover concerns and/or pandemic-related underperformance.

Fitch Loans of Concern: The largest FLOC and largest contributor to expected losses, Parkchester Commercial (6.5%), is collateralized by a 541,232-sf, retail/office mixed-use property located in the Bronx, NY. The largest tenant Macy's (31.5%), extended their lease to March 2024 from March 2022. Servicer reported YE 2020 NOI has increased by 15% compared to YE 2019 NOI DSCR but has declined by 31% compared to issuance, mainly due to increasing expenses, particularly real estate taxes and repairs and maintenance. Occupancy has remained relatively stable at the property and is 89% at September 2021 compared to 93% at December 2020, 94% as of September 2019 and 93% at issuance. The NOI DSCR as of September 2021 was 1.11x compared to 1.31x at YE 2020, 1.14x at YE 2019, 1.14x at YE 2018, 1.61x at YE 2017 and 1.92x at issuance. Fitch's analysis included a 20% stress to the YE 2020 NOI due to the decline in annualized September 2021 NOI, upcoming tenant rollover in 2022, and Macy's lease expiration before the loan maturity, which resulted in an approximate 13% loss severity.

The second largest contributor to expected losses, 170 Broadway (5.4%), is secured by a 16,135-sf, single-tenant retail condominium that is 100% occupied by the Gap. The Gap's lease extends until February 2030, and the YE 2020 NOI DSCR was 1.00x versus YE 2019 NOI DSCR of 1.54x. The drop in DSCR was due to the interest only period expiring after five years. According to the servicer, the litigation between the borrower and tenant over whether the tenant is responsible for rental payments during pandemic restrictions has been resolved and Gap has paid back all past due rent. Additionally, the loan has returned to master servicing with an effective date of Dec. 31, 2021.

Fitch's analysis included a 5% stress to the YE 2020 NOI which resulted in an approximate 15% loss severity, or a recovery of $3,600 psf. The expected losses improved since the last rating action as the litigation has been settled and Gap is current on payments. However, per the company website, the retailer has not reopened at this location.

Improved Credit Enhancement (CE): CE has increased since issuance due to loan payoffs and scheduled amortization. As of the January 2022 distribution date, the pool's aggregate principal balance has been reduced by 19.1% to $905.3 million from $1.12 billion at issuance. Eight loans have paid off since issuance, including the fourth largest loan, Apollo Education Group Headquarters, formerly $91.5 million. Four loans, approximately 38.0% of the pool, are full-term IO, including the three largest loans in the pool. All of the partial-term, IO loans (46.8%) are now amortizing. Fourteen loans (20.2%) are fully defeased, up from 10 loans (15.7%) at the prior review, including the third largest loan. All remaining loans mature from March 2024 through April 2025. There has been $3.76 million of realized losses from two loans liquidating since issuance.

Alternative Loss Considerations: Fitch ran an additional sensitivity scenario which applied higher losses on the Residence Inn Orangeburg as asset performance continues to be impacted by the pandemic. Sensitivity losses of 8% were applied based on a 26% stress to YE 2019; however, the additional losses did not impact the ratings.

Coronavirus Exposure: Approximately 17.4% of the loans in the pool are secured by retail properties, including 170 Broadway (5.4%), which is in the process of transferring back to the master servicer. Other property type concentrations include office at 23.5%, mixed use at 19.3%, multifamily at 11%, and hotel at 3.5%.

Pari Passu Loans: Three loans comprising 30.3% of the pool are part of a pari passu loan combination: Selig Office Portfolio (13.8% of the pool), 3 Columbus Circle (11.1% of the pool), and 170 Broadway (5.4% of the pool). The Selig Office Portfolio and 170 Broadway loan combinations are serviced under the pooling and servicing agreement for this transaction. The controlling notes for the 3 Columbus Circle are held outside the trust.

RATING SENSITIVITIES

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:

Downgrades would occur with an increase in pool level losses from underperforming or specially serviced loans. Downgrades to the 'AAAsf' and 'AA-sf' categories are not likely due to the high CE and amortization, but may occur should interest shortfalls impact the classes. Downgrades to the 'BBB-sf' and A-sf' category would occur should overall pool losses increase significantly and/or one or more large loans have an outsized loss, which would erode CE. Downgrades to the 'BBsf' and 'B-sf' categories would occur should loss expectations increase and/or if performance of the FLOCs or loans vulnerable to the pandemic fail to stabilize or additional loans default and/or transfer to the special servicer.

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:

Upgrades would occur with stable to improved asset performance coupled with pay down and/or defeasance. Upgrades of the 'AA-sf' and 'A-sf' categories would likely occur with significant improvement in CE and/or defeasance; however, adverse selection, increased concentrations and further underperformance of the FLOCs could cause this trend to reverse. Upgrades to the 'BBB-sf' and 'BBsf' categories may occur as the number of FLOCs are reduced, properties vulnerable to the pandemic further stabilize and/or return to pre-pandemic levels and there is sufficient CE to the classes. Classes would not be upgraded above 'Asf' if there were likelihood for interest shortfalls. Upgrades to the 'B-sf' categories are not likely until the later years in a transaction, and only if the performance of the remaining pool is stable and/or properties vulnerable to the pandemic return to pre-pandemic levels, and there is sufficient CE to the classes.

Deutsche Bank is the trustee for the transaction, and serves as the backup advancing agent. Fitch's Issuer Default Rating for Deutsche Bank is currently 'BBB+'/'F2'/Outlook Positive. Fitch relies on the master servicer, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., a division of Wells Fargo & Company (A+/F1/Negative), which is currently the primary advancing agent, as counterparty. Fitch provided ratings confirmation on Jan. 24, 2018.

Best/Worst Case Rating Scenario

International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.

USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10

Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action.

REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.

ESG Considerations

Unless otherwise disclosed in this section, the highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3'. This means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/esg.

Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com

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