Fitch Ratings has affirmed 16 classes of
In addition, the Rating Outlooks for four classes have been revised to Stable from Negative.
RATING ACTIONS
Entity / Debt
Rating
Prior
MSBAM 2013-C10
A-3 61762MBV2
LT
AAAsf
Affirmed
AAAsf
A-3FL 61762MAW1
LT
AAAsf
Affirmed
AAAsf
A-3FX 61762MAY7
LT
AAAsf
Affirmed
AAAsf
A-4 61762MBW0
LT
AAAsf
Affirmed
AAAsf
A-5 61762MCC3
LT
AAAsf
Affirmed
AAAsf
A-S 61762MBY6
LT
AAAsf
Affirmed
AAAsf
A-SB 61762MBU4
LT
AAAsf
Affirmed
AAAsf
B 61762MBZ3
LT
Asf
Affirmed
Asf
C 61762MCB5
LT
BBBsf
Affirmed
BBBsf
Page
of 2
VIEW ADDITIONAL RATING DETAILS
Classes X-A is interest only (IO).
The exchangeable class PST can be exchanged for classes A-S, B and C.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Generally Stable Loss Expectations/Expected Paydown: The affirmations reflect continued stable performance of the majority of the loans in the pool. Loss expectations are generally in line with the prior rating action. There are thirteen (30.4%) Fitch Loans of Concern (FLOCs), including three loans (13.7%) in special servicing. Fitch's current ratings incorporate a base case loss of 9.8%.
The Outlook revision for classes A-S, B, C and PST to Stable from Negative reflect the stable loss expectations and paydown. The Negative Outlook for class D reflects the potential for downgrades should any of the loans in the pool fail to repay at their respective maturities and experience prolonged workout periods and/or losses.
The largest contributor to expected loss is the largest loan in the pool,
The loan is secured by a 494,189-sf portion of a 1.0 million-sf regional mall located in
The TTM
Fitch expected loss of approximately 50% factors a discount to a recent valuations and weak financial performance.
The second largest contributor to expected loss is the specially serviced
The mall's non-collateral anchors include
Fitch expected loss of approximately 82% factors a discount to a recent appraisal value and reflects low historical sales, refinance risk and lack of sponsor commitment.
The third largest contributor to expected loss is the specially serviced Oak Brook Center (1.7% ), which transferred to special servicing in
Defeasance and Improved Credit Enhancement: As of the
Alternative Loss Scenario: Due to the large concentration of loan maturities in 2023, Fitch performed a sensitivity and liquidation analysis, which grouped the remaining loans based on their current status and collateral quality and ranked them by their perceived likelihood of repayment and/or loss expectation. This analysis contributed to the affirmations, outlook revisions for classes A-S, B, C and PST and the continued Negative Outlook for class D.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
The 'AAAsf' classes are unlikely to be downgraded given the credit enhancement (CE) and significant defeasance, but could be downgraded should they suffer interest shortfalls. Classes B, C and D could be subject to downgrade should overall loss expectations increase, in particular the loans secured by regional mall loans and loans in special servicing. The distressed classes E and below are subject to further downgrade should additional loans transfer to special servicing, losses are realized or become more certain on specially serviced loans.
Fitch has identified both a baseline and a worse-than-expected, adverse stagflation scenario based on fallout from the
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
Upgrades to classes B through C would only occur with significant improvement in CE and/or defeasance and additional loan payoffs. Classes would not be upgraded above 'Asf' if there is a likelihood of interest shortfalls. Upgrades to classes D and below are considered unlikely unless the specially serviced loans and modified loans liquidate with recoveries well above expectations.
Best/Worst Case Rating Scenario
International scale credit ratings of Structured Finance transactions have a best-case rating upgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a positive direction) of seven notches over a three-year rating horizon; and a worst-case rating downgrade scenario (defined as the 99th percentile of rating transitions, measured in a negative direction) of seven notches over three years. The complete span of best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings for all rating categories ranges from 'AAAsf' to 'Dsf'. Best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings are based on historical performance. For more information about the methodology used to determine sector-specific best- and worst-case scenario credit ratings, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/site/re/10111579.
USE OF THIRD PARTY DUE DILIGENCE PURSUANT TO SEC RULE 17G -10
Form ABS Due Diligence-15E was not provided to, or reviewed by, Fitch in relation to this rating action.
REFERENCES FOR SUBSTANTIALLY MATERIAL SOURCE CITED AS KEY DRIVER OF RATING
The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria.
Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com
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